“If a cop follows you for 500 miles, you’re going to get a ticket,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet, in reference to Bank of America’s many legal problems.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SILVER LININGS)
(BTC), (GOOGL), (GENZ)
With all the Dr. Dooms out there, and you know there are plenty, it might seem like a broken record.
Crypto’s been kicked around, mocked, and left for dead so many times, you’d think it owed Wall Street money. With all the criticism hurled its way lately, you'd be forgiven for thinking it has no future. But I wouldn't bet on that.
The road ahead for crypto is lined with silver linings. Not obvious to the casual observer, perhaps, but impossible for any sharp-eyed investor to ignore.
Let’s talk Google or Alphabet, if you want to be formal about it. Their latest earnings didn’t mention crypto by name, but the subtext was loud and clear. The advertising landscape is shifting. Payments are evolving. And guess who's still lingering in the machinery? Crypto.
In 2025 alone, the blockchain-in-media and advertising market clocked in at a cool $2.68 billion. That’s not chump change. It’s proof that crypto-related ad spend hasn’t vanished but simply changed costumes. The industry didn’t disappear. Instead, it adapted.
So when a behemoth like Google starts missing its growth targets, part of that slowdown reflects a deeper truth: money is moving differently now. And crypto, along with its Web3 cousins, is very much a part of that evolution.
Meanwhile, financial firms are still splashing ad dollars across every media channel that can spell ROI. And while not every banner screams Bitcoin, the underlying infrastructure - wallets, exchanges, DeFi platforms - is still feeding the ecosystem. Big media still wants those clicks, and crypto still delivers the eyeballs.
But forget ad dollars for a second. The more important asset is the audience.
Let’s not kid ourselves. Plenty of retail traders got torched during the last cycle. Some won’t touch crypto again if you paid them in Ethereum. Despite that, the appetite among younger investors is as strong as ever.
Case in point: Gemini’s 2024–2025 survey showed over 51% of Gen Z respondents worldwide have owned, or still own, some form of crypto. In the U.S., that number held steady.
Meanwhile, a separate US investment trends report found that 48% of Gen Z investors are using crypto exchanges. That’s more than those using traditional financial advisors.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise though. After years of arbitrary lockdowns and enough inflation to make your grocery bill look like a car payment, younger generations are rethinking everything. They find traditional retirement plans suspicious. They think the US financial system is rigged. These folks have gone from skeptical to cynical.
And who can blame them? The stock market got clobbered in 2022, and it hasn’t exactly been a parade since. Bonds didn’t offer much comfort either. This might be yet another year where both stocks and bonds disappoint - a double whammy that laughs in the face of your grandpa’s 60/40 portfolio.
Ah, yes, the sacred 60/40 split. Sixty percent in stocks, forty in bonds. Supposed to give you growth with a safety net. Well, in today’s market, that safety net has more holes than ever.
It’s time for a reset.
Wealth-building isn’t what it used to be. When both stocks and bonds are sagging - and when the Fed spent years flooding the economy with Monopoly money - there are no free lunches left.
Many upper-middle-class families thought they were cruising toward retirement on autopilot. Instead, they’ve been shoved back into the workforce, legs flailing, as everyday costs spike anywhere from 8% to 50%, depending on your zip code.
Now, some people are still parroting the old “crypto is on life support” line. That was maybe true two years ago. Today? Please. Forget survival. In 2025, crypto was on the offensive.
Bitcoin cracked the $100,000 barrier in November. Not on some fantasy of a future Fed pivot, but on the back of actual, real-deal monetary easing that started in late 2023.
We’re no longer guessing about the pivot. It happened. Now the conversation is about stability, and crypto has shown it can handle that just fine.
The idea that Bitcoin rises or falls based purely on Jerome Powell’s caffeine intake is dated. This market has grown up. With spot Bitcoin ETFs, regulated U.S. exchanges, and serious institutional muscle, crypto now has more than just a pulse. It has infrastructure, credibility, and momentum.
That said, the biggest threat to crypto remains the same as always: the people in it. The panic sellers. The hype chasers. The ones who buy the top and sell the bottom. The space could use fewer influencers and more investors.
Meanwhile, the harsh reality is sinking in across America: more families are scrambling to patch together some kind of retirement. And whether you’re 28 or 68, dismissing crypto might not be the smartest move.
According to the 2025 Modern Wealth Survey by Charles Schwab, 41% of Americans now consider crypto a good investment. And 65% of those already in the space say they’re planning to add more.
Here’s the bottom line. If you believe, as I do, that crypto has matured - from a speculative gamble to a legitimate, evolving asset class - then turning your back on it could be the biggest mistake of all.
Position sizing matters. Discipline matters. But the opportunity? Still very much alive.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 25, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SAVING CRYPTO)
(BTC), (KPMG)
One can’t help but be appalled to see the former driver of global growth China turn radically inward, preferring a deeply authoritarian economic model.
What they had in the Hu Jintao years between 2002 to 2012 was legendary and might not ever happen again.
Friends of mine who have managed to flee China all mention how it was easier to leave before 2020.
Good luck now navigating Chinese lockdowns.
Authorities have made it impossible to leave and they track everything including a digital yuan now.
China and its backward economy have a lot of problems, and the more problems that add up nudge the people to a crypto solution.
I am not saying that every Chinese person will invest in crypto, but for the wealthy ones that usually immigrate to Singapore or Hong Kong, the data backs up my thesis.
KPMG accounting firm has indicated a colossal interest in the crypto market from the wealthy elite of Singapore and Hong Kong.
In fact, a 2022-survey by KPMG found that 58 % of the 30 family-offices and high-net-worth individuals (AUM US$10 m–500 m) across Singapore/HK were already invested in digital assets and a further 34 % intended to allocate funds to bitcoin, stable-coins, ether, as well as DeFi opportunities.
Of those 58 % who already invested:
- 100 % held bitcoin,
- 87 % held ether,
- 60 % bought NFTs/metaverse tokens,
- 47 % held DeFi tokens.
Beyond that, most already invested only allocated less than 5 % of their portfolio to the digital-asset class (reflecting caution around regulation/valuation).
But since 2022, things have evolved:
- In 2025, the global fintech investment in H1 reached US$44.7 billion across 2,216 deals.
- In Singapore, fintech (including cryptocurrency/digital assets) pulled in around US$1.04 billion in H1 2025.
- Meanwhile in China, the stance toward cryptocurrencies remains very hostile: crypto ownership, trading and DeFi operations in mainland China are being criminalised and enforcement has stepped up markedly in 2025.
- And the digital yuan (e-CNY) is being actively deployed: for example, by end Sept 2025, cumulative e-CNY transactions hit RMB 14.2 trillion (~US$2 trillion) and 225 million personal wallets were in circulation.
So: The good news is that there is a pathway that links rich Chinese to the future of crypto, but it’s largely contingent on whether crypto can get its act together or not.
China is ramping up its control over money supply by advancing the digital yuan that they can track and regulate with fine control.
This is really 1984 in its purest form.
As the crypto winter continues, there are indeed some silver linings.
However, crypto needs to be careful that it doesn’t turn into just another centralized version of what the Chinese are running away from.
Decentralization is hard to pull off in the long term as the government will want its cut.
Rome wasn’t built in one day.
“The biggest risk is not taking any risk.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 20, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LOOKING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE)
(BTC), (NFT)
A non-fungible token (NFT) is a unique digital identifier that cannot be copied, substituted, or subdivided, that is recorded in a blockchain, and that is used to certify authenticity and ownership.
Like cryptocurrencies, they are also digital tokens.
But compared to cryptocurrencies, which are fungible, or interchangeable, NFTs are singular and unique. Like cryptocurrencies, they exist on the blockchain as cryptographic assets.
The price direction of NFTs is a good way to take a barometer of a speculative technology market underpinning crypto.
I can tell you that the NFT marketplace is dead as a doornail, and like how the price of Bitcoin had been engulfed in a crypto winter during 2022–2023, it’s even worse in the NFT world. Bitcoin has recovered since then, but NFTs haven’t.
How bad?
Multimillion-dollar NFT purchases marked down to $100 kind of bad.
In times when the crypto industry is bullish, NFT prices benefit from being a second-derivative industry.
One might say that it’s just a 3X ETF of Bitcoin and for speculators, this can be either good or bad.
If you don’t believe me about the state of NFTs, let's roll through some of the data points.
In sectors from art to gaming, trading volume and prices collapsed more than 90% from their early-2022 peaks, and by 2024–2025 an estimated 96–98% of NFT collections saw virtually no trading activity at all.
By 2025, global NFT sales sit in the low single-digit billions per quarter, compared with tens of billions at the height of the 2021–2022 mania. Daily volume across major collections now totals only a few million dollars.
The NFT capitulation is solid proof that NFTs are not stores of wealth and definitely aren’t inflation hedges.
I can also say that Bitcoin pretty much failed every test of legitimacy during the 2022–2023 crypto winter.
NFTs and Bitcoin are speculative assets that only do well during a time of increasing liquidity. The reverse holds true as liquidity tightens.
Many of those art NFTs are being bought and sold on OpenSea, the most prominent peer-to-peer marketplace.
Daily trading volume on OpenSea peaked around $2.7 billion on May 1, 2022 and then fell by about 99% to under $10 million a day by late August 2022. By 2025, OpenSea’s annualized marketplace revenue is in the low tens of millions of dollars, a fraction of its peak activity.
Personally, I don’t believe in NFTs long term, I don’t get how a digital certificate will hold weight.
I rather have a real physical certificate that shows I own something like a real estate deed.
For those who might think NFTs could hold more utility in the future, then I am another hater you must convince.
Preaching to me about how long-term prospects are positive and investors should buy the dip is laughable.
Any serious asset doesn’t go down 95% in one year without a crisis and in the short-term survival of NFTs isn’t guaranteed. For most collections, prices remain more than 90% below their 2021–2022 highs even in 2025.
This was a fad that caught on and rode the hysteria of Bitcoin to relevance and now is being dumped faster than one can imagine.
Back in 2022, as markets braced for a Fed-induced recession that ultimately turned into a slowdown rather than a deep, official downturn, it was hard to believe Americans would be interested in buying an NFT when they worried about keeping their jobs - and even in 2025, high rates and lingering inflation shocks have left little appetite for ultra-speculative JPEGs.
Surveys show that roughly half of U.S. adults have heard at least a little about NFTs, while globally about 47% of consumers have never heard of them at all, only 7% say they know exactly what they are, and roughly 1% actually own one.
But most understand that securing shelter and food during unemployment is more important than throwing money down the toilet.
Avoid the NFT asset class, period.
“We're running the most dangerous experiment in history right now, which is to see how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere... can handle before there is an environmental catastrophe.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER PATH GETS SHUT DOWN)
(BTC), (PORTUGAL)
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