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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 29, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 29, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY OLD PAL, LEONARDO FIBONACCI),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-29 09:06:582021-12-29 11:44:00December 29, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 28, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-28 10:04:242021-12-28 13:17:15December 28, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 27, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-27 10:04:352021-12-27 16:16:20December 27, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 27, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Amazon isn’t happening to the book business. The future is happening to the book business,” said Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/jeff-bezos-1.png 275 487 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-27 10:00:072021-12-27 16:09:12December 27, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 24, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING THE NEW APPLE IN 2022),
(AAPL),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-24 10:06:032021-12-24 15:11:50December 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trading the New Apple in 2022

Diary, Newsletter

Not a day goes by when someone doesn’t ask me about what to do about Apple (AAPL).

After all, it is the world's largest publicly-traded company at a $2.1 trillion market capitalization. It is the planet’s most widely owned stock. Almost everyone uses their products in some form or another.

It buys back more of its own stock than any other company on the planet. Oh yes, it is also one of Warren Buffet’s favorite picks and one of his biggest holdings.

So, the widespread adulation is totally understandable.

Apple is a company with which I have a very long relationship. During the early 1980s, I was ordered by Morgan Stanley to take Steve Jobs around to the big New York Institutional Investors to pitch a secondary share offering for the sole reason that I was one of three people who worked for the firm who was then from California.

They thought one West Coast hippy would easily get along with another. Boy, were they wrong, me in my three-piece navy blue pinstripe suit and Steve in his battered Levi’s. It was the worst day of my life.

Steve was not a guy who palled around with anyone. He especially hated investment bankers, like me.

I last got into Apple with my personal account when the company only had four weeks of cash flow remaining and was on the verge of bankruptcy. I got in at $7, which on a split-adjusted basis today is 25 cents. I still have them. In fact, my cost basis in Apple is less than the 88 cents annual dividend now.

Today, some 200 Apple employees subscribe to the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader looking to diversify their substantial holdings. Many own Apple stock with an adjusted cost basis of under $5. Suffice it to say, they all drive really nice Priuses.

So I get a lot of information about the firm far above and beyond the normal effluent of the media and stock analysts. That’s why Apple has become a favorite target of my Trade Alerts over the years.

And here is the great irony: Nobody would touch the stock with a ten-foot pole at the end of 2018. Since then, Apple has rallied 274%, creating more market cap in a year than any company in history.

Here’s why. Apple was all about the iPhone which then accounted for 75% of its total earnings. The TV, the watch, the car, iPods, the iMac, and Apple Pay were all a waste of time and consumed far more coverage than they are collectively worth.

The good news is that iPhone sales are subject to a fairly predictable cycle. Apple launches a major new iPhone every other fall. The share price peaks shortly after that. The odd years see minor upgrades, not generational changes.

Just like you see a big pullback in the tide before a tsunami hits, iPhone sales are flattening out between major upgrades. This is because consumers start delaying purchases in expectation of the introduction of the new iPhone, more power, gadgets, and gizmos.

So during those in-between years, the stock performance was disappointing. 2018 certainly followed this script with Apple down a horrific 30.13% at the lows. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but the previous generation in Apple shares in 2015 brought a decline of, you guessed it, exactly 29.33%.

But Apple is a much bigger company this time around, and well-established cycles tend to bring in diminishing returns. It’s like watching the declining peaks of a bouncing rubber ball.

This is not your father’s Apple anymore. Services like iTunes and the new Apple+ streaming service are accounting for an even larger share of the company’s profits. And guess what? Services companies command much higher multiples than boring old hardware ones. It’s the old questions of linear versus exponential growth.

Here’s the next new play. Autonomous driving looks to be a huge business for Apple, possibly a $1 trillion a year business. After all, Tesla is already charging $8,000 for the upgrade and it only works on freeways. My bet is that they sell autonomous consoles to legacy Ford (F) and General Motors (GM).

An easing of trade relations with China under a new Biden administration will bring a new spring to Apple’s step, where sales have recently been in free fall. Their new membership lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products. That will bring larger profits.

A decade ago, I ran into a local school teacher who, after 30 years of slaving away with your brats, was unable to retire because, with only $100,000 saved, she was too poor to do so. All her money went to expensive California rent and to Blue Cross since her district had no health insurance plan.

I told her to place her entire life savings into Apple. Her financial advisor told her she was nuts. Her friends told her she was crazy. Her mother said she should disown me.

Where is that school teacher today? She just bought a $3 million beachfront home on Hawaii’s Kona Coast. She sold her Apple shares for $7.3 million. I know because I just received a nice Christmas card from her attached to a two-pound box of See’s candy, my favorite.

Who said teaching didn’t pay!

It all adds up to keeping Apple as a core to any long-term portfolio.

Just thought you’d like to know.

 

 

I Heard They are Diversifying

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/apple.png 648 862 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-24 10:04:092021-12-24 15:12:23Trading the New Apple in 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 22, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 22, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-22 11:06:052021-12-22 17:15:58December 22, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 21, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 21, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

 (A CHRISTMAS STORY),
(THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-21 11:04:302021-12-21 16:22:01December 21, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 20, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 20, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(I’M TAKING OFF FOR THE YEAR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-20 11:06:022021-12-20 12:40:13December 20, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

I'm Taking Off for the Year

Diary, Newsletter

I need a vacation.

I have been working nonstop for two years and desperately need a break.

You can tear up your rolodex card for me, unfriend me on Facebook, designate my email address as SPAM, and block my Twitter account. It won’t do you any good.

If I don’t take some time off, I am going to start raving MAD!

Over the last two years, I have worked the hardest in my entire life.

During said two years, I have brought in a total return of 157.13%, versus 18% for the Dow Average, far and away the best of my life and almost certainly yours as well. If you got half of my performance, you beat virtually everyone else in the industry. In other words, I under-promised and over-delivered in spades.

If you wonder why I do this, it's really very simple. Read my inbox and you would burst into tears.

Every day, I learn tales of mortgages paid off, student loans dealt with, college educations financed, and early retirements launched. I am improving lives by the thousands. That’s far better than any hedge fund bonus could offer me, although I wouldn’t mind owning the Golden State Warriors.

At this late stage in my life, the most valuable thing is to be needed and listened to. If that means becoming a cult leader, that’s fine with me. After all, the last guy to try this route got crucified.

This was one of those once-in-a-century years, like 1968, when absolutely everything happened. To say we had challenges would be putting it mildly.

I had to become a chief medical officer, advising staff on four countries and five US states which vaccine to get and how to get it. Not a single person got sick. Then the US staff all applied for PPP loans and got them.

When the Philippine staff began starving because of severe government lockdown orders, I went to Costco, bought a 50-pound bag of rice, and sent it to Manila by Federal Express. It worked.

When horrific uncontrollable wildfires broke out in California, I flew spotter planes for Cal Fire, holding the stick with one hand and a pair of binoculars with the other, looking for trouble and radioing in coordinates and directing aerial tankers. Nobody can fly wildfires like I can.

I lost access to my Lake Tahoe house when the big fire hit right in the middle of a remodel. All the contractors disappeared chasing much higher paying insurance work. At least we now have a 20-mile wide fire break to the southwest of the house. And I have not been to my Zermatt chalet in 2 ½ years because of the Swiss quarantine.

I have high hopes for next summer.

Thankfully, there were no new wars this year, so the Marine Corps didn’t come calling, except for their annual toy donations. I’ll take toys over more combat flight time any day.

So, I will spend the next two weeks reading the deep research, speaking with old hedge fund buddies, and trying to come up with a game plan for 2022. One thing is certain: we are going to have to work twice as hard to make half the profits with double the volatility. Discipline will be key.

Instead of sending out urgent trade alerts, emergency news flashes, and more research than you can read, I’ll be playing Monopoly and Risk, practicing my banjo, a catching up on some classic films.

I already have one trade on: I’ll watch Elf if the kids watch Gary Cooper’s 1949 Task Force, the history of naval aviation (semper fi).

In the meantime, I’ll be running some of my favorite research pieces from the past over the next two weeks. I won’t be sending out Hot Tips at all.

Sixteen feet of snow is expected at Tahoe by New Year. Boy, do we need it.

So, everyone have some great holidays, spend your trading profits, and get well-rested. We have some serious work to do in January.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/john-christmas-trees-e1577182165465.png 380 500 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-20 11:04:092021-12-20 12:53:06I'm Taking Off for the Year
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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