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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 16, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 16, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-16 10:04:102021-09-16 13:29:01September 16, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 15, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-15 11:06:442021-09-15 11:32:37September 15, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is USA Inc. a Short?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing $3 trillion a year and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?

Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me from your Facebook account, and delete me from your Twitter network.

Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did a few years ago, technology guru Mary Meeker.

Now a partner at venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.

The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.

The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” began, GDP rose 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leaped 11.1 times.

If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.

Of course, the biggest problem is with healthcare spending, which will see no solution until healthcare costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life spans, and infant mortality.

Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient’s final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.

Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70 and means testing recipients. If you make $1 billion a year, you don’t need a monthly social security check.

The solutions to our other problems are simple but require political suicide for those making the case.

For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage deductions, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses, and raise $1 trillion a year. That would only make a dent in our current $3 trillion a year budget deficit.

Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the sixties, Google, Yahoo, eBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing today. Tech generates about 50% of all the profits in the US today.

Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and is still run by the government and has been another great wellspring of profits. (I got to use it during the 1980s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret. The Air Force base that ran it was called “Sob Story”).

There are a few gaping holes in Mary’s “thought experiment”. I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America’s gold reserves, the world’s largest at 8,965 tons worth $832 billion, at only $34 an ounce, versus an actual current market price of $1,861. By the way, the stash has only been seen once in 50 years.

Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $10 billion each in today’s dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.

No, the USA is not a short. In fact, it is a long term scream long. The arguments as to why show up in the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader every day of the year. During the publishing run of this letter, I have seen the Dow Average soar from 600 to 30,000.

How could I think otherwise?

Mary expounds at length on her analysis, which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.

 

Worth More Than a Dollar?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/worth-more-than-a-dollar.png 372 496 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-15 11:04:152021-09-15 11:31:37Is USA Inc. a Short?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there.

I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner.  I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn.

I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned advice, and disappear after they take your money. I want to have the independent skills needed to manage my own wealth, as I grow old.

I don’t expect that to happen overnight or without advice, but I am hoping that your newsletter is something above par not just in appearance, but in results.

Time will tell.

Thank you again for returning my emails. That says a lot.

Best,

Ryan

Hammond, New York

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/john-thomas5.png 604 452 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-15 11:02:422021-09-15 11:31:04Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 14, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 14, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(REMEMBERING 9/11)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-14 10:06:242021-09-14 11:39:44September 14, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit is on for September 14-16.

Diary, Newsletter

A collection of the 27 best traders and managers in the world, or eight a day, each giving an educational webinar. Back-to-back one-hour presentations are followed by an interactive Q&A. It’s a smorgasbord of trading strategies, so pick the one that is right for you. Covering all stocks, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange, precious metals, and real estate. It’s the best look at the rest of 2021’s money-making opportunities you will get anywhere. Oh, and we’ll be giving away $100,000 in prizes too. To view the schedule and speakers and register NOW, click here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/septsummit-e1631540203682.png 280 500 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-14 10:04:502021-09-14 11:35:18The Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit is on for September 14-16.
DougD

Remembering 9/11

Diary

With the 20th anniversary of 9/11 just passed, I want to forward the message circulating among past-and-present Morgan Stanley staffers, myself included:

As a firm headquartered in New York City, this is always a sobering time for us. For us, we remember those who died and the heroism of many that saved thousands of lives.

At Morgan Stanley, Richard “Rick” Rescorla was our hero.

Rick was retired United States Army veteran of British birth and served in Vietnam. He was the World Trade Center Security Chief for Morgan Stanley and in 1992 he warned the Port Authority about the possibility of a truck bomb attack on the pillars in the basement parking garage but was ignored.

When terrorists used this method in the 1993 attack, Rick was instrumental in evacuating the building and was the last man out.

Rescorla was supposed to be on vacation on September 11, 2001. However, he covered the shift of a coworker so they could go on vacation.

At 8:46 am, AA Flight 11 struck WTC1. The Port Authority directed everyone to stay put. Rick ignored them and began his evacuation plan, extracting 2,700 employees from World Trade Center 2 and 1,000 employees in World Trade Center 5.

WTC2 was hit at 9:03 am. Rescorla reminded everyone to “…be proud to be an American…everyone will be talking to you tomorrow”, and sang God Bless America and other patriotic songs over his bullhorn to help evacuees stay calm as they left the building.

The heroism of Rick Rescorla resulted in thousands of people arriving safely at home that day.

Thirteen Morgan Stanley employees didn’t make it out and Rick was one of them. After he had successfully evacuated the vast majority of Morgan Stanley employees out of the burning tower, he returned to the building to rescue others still inside.

When one of his colleagues told him he too had to evacuate, Rescorla replied, “As soon as I make sure everyone else is out”. He was last seen on the 10th floor, moving upward, shortly before WTC2’s collapse.

This 9/11, please join me in remembering those that died and all the families affected by this remorseless attack as well as expressing gratitude for all those who survived and for the heroes…one being Rick Rescorla.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/wtc.jpg 300 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2021-09-14 10:02:132021-09-14 11:38:34Remembering 9/11
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 13, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 13, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or VENTURING INTO THE METAVERSE
(SPY), (TLT), (VIX),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-13 11:06:322021-09-13 12:52:21September 13, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Venturing Into the Metaverse

Diary, Newsletter

Watch out for the term “Metaverse.”

It refers to the virtual world where all things exist in a virtual world.

And here is the great thing about the metaverse. The real world can only grow at an analog rate and is finite. The virtual world can grow at an exponential, viral rate and is infinite.

Infinite markets with infinite customers? That is something that companies and share prices really like to hear about.

We’re getting a peek into the Metaverse right now with the movement of many companies to a virtual world triggered by the pandemic. With employees working at home, a headquarters at a PO Box in Montana to meet regulatory minimums, selling digital services to a digital market, these companies effectively exist only in terms of electrons and bytes.

But suddenly, costs have plunged by 40%, productivity has improved by 40%, and profits have increased tenfold. These are companies you want to own.

No wonder the stock market is going up almost every day. It’s because companies like this are worth more, a lot more overnight!

It's how Silicon Valley leaped from having 80 unicorns to 800 in the span of two years. The future is happening fast.

If you are an old fart who doesn’t want to bother with all this computer mumbo jumbo, invest a few minutes playing Facebook’s (FB) Oculus Rift with your grandkids. Then sit down and watch the 2018 science fiction/fantasy movie Ready Player One. There is a sequel in the works. The second sequel will be you and me.

We have now just suffered the worst trading week since February, with the (SPY) off by a mere $8.5, or 1.9%. We may have a shot at another long-awaited 5% correction this week. If we do, I’ll put half my cash in the market. I’ll put the rest in at a 10% correction.

I highly doubt that stocks will fall by more than that given the massive weight of liquidity in the financial system, even though it’s September. My $475 (SPY) target for end of 2021 still stands and I’m sticking to it. You’re going to have to pry my cold dead fingers off of my forecast.

The only question is which sectors will lead. My bet is on domestic recovery stocks like banks, brokers, hotels, casinos, airlines, cruise lines, and railroads. Delta peaked two weeks ago and is now falling precipitously, especially in the south.

That sets up a second post-Covid recovery trade with the same sector leading the first time.

The way the pandemic ends is that the US gets to 90% immunity, where Covid becomes an annual flu shot. California is already there with 80% of the population vaccinated and 10% getting the disease. Alabama may get there with 60% vaccinations and 30% getting sick. But in a year, the whole country will be at 90%.

Then, we can get on with the rest of our lives.

The August Nonfarm Payroll Report Bombs, coming in at only 235,000 versus an expected 720,000, a huge miss. The headline Unemployment Rate fell 0.2% to 5.2%, a new post-pandemic low. Mysteriously, both stocks and bonds hated it. Manufacturing was up 37,000, while Leisure & Hospitality was zero and Retail at -28,000. Education LOST -25,000 during the back-to-school season. Average Hourly Earnings rose an astonishing 0.6% MOM, or 4.3% YOY. The U6 long-term unemployment rate fell to 8.8%. Goodbye taper. A shortage of workers was to blame, but the economic data has been worsening for a while now. Delta is taking a bigger bite than we thought.

JOLTS comes in at a blockbuster 10.9 million in July, a new record high. This is the number of job openings in the private sector. Anyone who wants a job can get a job. Blame the education gap. The problem is that there is demand for 10.9 million website designers, computer programmers, and internet marketers, and an endless supply of waiters and other restaurant workers.

The Fed says growth downshifted during the summer, thanks to delta and a worker shortage according to the Beige Book release. We already knew that, and a five-point selloff in bonds is telling us that Covid is declining and growth is back on.

Europe tapers, cutting back monthly Eurobond purchases 160-170 billion a month. Governor Christine Lagarde believes any inflation is temporary and the time for emergency stimulus is over. Can the Fed be far behind?

Seven million lose Unemployment Benefits. This should make available more workers whose shortage have been a drag on the economy. Accelerating growth can only be good for stocks.

El Salvador launches Bitcoin
as a national currency, creating a national wallet, and offering every citizen $30 to open an account. Most of the accounts will be accessed via cell phones. The central bank bought 400 bitcoins worth $20 million as part of the rollout. The country’s president is helping to sort out technical glitches. Is Bitcoin the next global currency? Bitcoin dropped 10% on the news.

Tesla
to make its own whips in a dramatic response to a structural global chip shortage that could last years. The news was good for a $30 pop in the stock this morning. Tesla is already one of the world’s largest chip users, and their needs are expected to jump 50-fold in the next ten years. The move justifies a much larger premium for the stock. It’s all about training the neural network.

Will a Bitcoin ETF approval spike the Market? There are a dozen applications with SEC for the first US-approved crypto ETF. When approved, billions of new cash will pile into Bitcoin off the back of the new improved legitimacy. Buy before the IPO, it’s a classic trading strategy.

My Ten-Year View

When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!

My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch is down 1.09% in September, thanks to a shortage of low-risk/high-return trading opportunities. My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 77.48%. The Dow Average was up 13.10% so far in 2021.

That leaves me 60% in cash at 40% in short (TLT), and long (SPY) and (DIS). My last two positions expire in four trading days.

Although we have maxed out the profits with these two positions, I’ll keep them as there is nothing else to do. I’m keeping positions small as long as we are at extreme overbought conditions. The Volatility Index (VIX) now over $20 shows that an entry point may be near.

That brings my 12-year total return to 500.03%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period and a new all-time high. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at a new high of 42.85%, easily the highest in the industry.

My trailing one-year return popped back to positively eye-popping 115.05%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.

We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 41 million and rising quickly and deaths topping 670,000, which you can find here.

The coming week will be slow on the data front.

On Monday, September 13, at 12:00 noon, US Inflation Expectations are released.

On Tuesday, September 14, at 8:30 AM, US Core Inflation is published, now the second biggest number of the month.

On Wednesday, September 15 at 9:15, Industrial Production for July is disclosed. At 9:30 AM, we get the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for September.

On Thursday, September 16 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also get Retail Sales for August.

On Friday, September 17 at 8:30 AM, we learn the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is disclosed.

As for me, one of the great shortcomings of San Francisco is that we only have a theater district with two venues and it is in the Tenderloin, the worst neighborhood in the city, an area beset with homeless, drug addicts, and prostitution.

I was walking to a parking lot after a show one evening when I passed a doorway. Three men were violently attacking a blond woman. Never one to miss a good fight, I dove in, knocking two unconscious in 15 seconds (thank you Higaona Sensei!). Unfortunately, number three jumped to my side, pulled a knife, and stabbed me.

The attacker and the woman ran off, leaving me bleeding in a doorway. I drove over the Golden Gate Bridge to Marin General Hospital, bleeding all over the front seat of my car, where they sewed me up nicely and put me on some strong drugs.

The doctor said, “You shouldn’t be doing this at your age.”

I responded that “good Samaritans are always rewarded, even if the work is its own reward.”

Fortunately, I still had my Motorola Flip Phone with me, so I called Singapore from my hospital bed for a market update. I liked what I saw and bought 100 futures contracts on Japan’s Nikkei 225. This was back in 1999 when anything you touched went straight up.

Then, I passed out.

An hour later, I woke up, called Singapore again and bought another 100 futures contracts, not remembering the earlier buy. This went on all night long.

The next morning, I was awoken by a call from my staff who excitedly told me that the overnight position sheets had just come in and I had made 40% on the day.

Was there some mistake?

Then I got a somewhat tense call from my broker. I had a margin call. I had also exceeded the exchange limits for a single contract and owned the equivalent of $200 million worth of Nikkei. I told them to sell everything I had at market and go 100% cash.

That was exactly what they wanted to hear.

That left me up 60% on the year and it was only May.

I then called all of the investors in my hedge fund. I told them the good news, that I wouldn’t be doing anymore trades for the fund until I received my performance bonus the following January and was taking off on a long vacation. With a 2%/20% payout in those days, that meant I was owed 14% of the underlying assets of the fund at a very elevated valuation.

They said that’s great, have fun, by the way, how did you do it?

I answered, “Great drug selection.” No further questions were asked.

Then I launched on the mother of all spending sprees.

I flew to Germany and picked up a new Mercedes S600 V12 Sedan at the factory in Stuttgart for $160,000. I then immediately road-tested it on the Autobahn at 130 mph. I made it to Switzerland in only two hours. After all, my old car needed a new seat.

Next, I bought all new furniture for the entire house, each kid selecting their own unique style.

Then, I took the family to Las Vegas where we stayed in the “Rain Man Suite” at the Bellagio Hotel for $10,000 a night, where both the 1988 Rain Man and 2009 The Hangover were filmed.

I bought everyone in the family black wool Armani suits, plus a couple of Brioni’s for myself at $8,000 a pop. For good measure, I chartered a helicopter for a tour of the Grand Canyon the next day.

At the end of the year, I sold my hedge fund based on the incredible strength of my recent performance for an enormous premium. I then left the stock market to explore a new natural gas drilling technology I had heard about called “fracking.”

Four months later, the Dotcom Crash ensued in earnest.

I still have the scar on my right side, and it always itches just before it rains, which is now almost never. But it was worth it, every inch of it.

It’s all true, every word of it and I’ll swear to it on a stack of bibles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/john-thomas-family-picture.png 560 712 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-13 11:02:092021-09-13 12:53:33The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Venturing Into the Metaverse
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 10, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 10, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SEPTEMBER 8 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (PLTR), (TSLA), (FCX), (PYPL), (TAN), (FSLR), (SPWR), (GBTC),
(ETHE), (BRKB), (USO), (UNG), (HD), (IBM), (SQ), (AA), (UBER), (UROY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-09-10 10:04:292021-09-10 12:21:31September 10, 2021
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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