I often get asked why I never put out ?BUY? recommendations on consumer discretionary stocks. I promptly send them in search of the latest consumer spending figures at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which do not paint a pretty picture (click following link ?http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm).
Since 2008, quarterly spending has come in at a scant 0.5%, the lowest figures since the Great Depression. You can blame deleveraging by the individual. While the government is telling us to spend more to stimulate the economy, we are in fact doing the opposite to put away more cash for a rainy day. They are also taking out an insurance policy against a future financial crash, which could come as early as next year.
You can find this in consumer debt, which saw a zenith of 130% of disposable income as recently as 2007. Today we are back down to 115%, possibly on our way to 70%, the 1970-2000 average. This is also reflected in the savings rate, which has risen from 1.2% in 2005 to 4.9% today, and may hit the long-term average of 8%.
If anything, these numbers are about to worsen dramatically as 80 million baby boomers retire. The over 65 crowd is not exactly known for the big spending, low saving ways, excluding myself.
I always tell people that being a former scientist and math major, I am a numbers guy. Just cut the BS, the spin, the apple and orange comparisons, and the ?independently? financed research, and give me the damn numbers. I can reach my own conclusions, even if you don?t like them.
The figures above are a major part of my own long term forecast for US GDP growth rate of 2.0%-2.5%. Decimating the middle class by shipping 25 million jobs to China assures decades long decline of standards of living. Should you expect anything more? Walmart (WMT) says that it now has a major problem in that its low-end customers are literally running out of money. This is not good for the industries specialized in this area.
Those looking for fodder that the US is coming down with the ?Japan Syndrome? and the two decades of lost economic growth this entails will find fertile ground here. US consumer spending still accounts for 70% of GDP growth. In Japan, it peaked in the late eighties at 20%. So the loss of the consumer will be far more damaging here than it is in the country that is suffering its third decade of flat economic performance.
In stock market terms, this means we may get a little more upside by the end of the year, possibly 70 points in the (SPX), but not much more. Off to a raging bull market we are not. The nimble may be able to profit from this, but for most it will be a snore.
Wake Me Up When the Consumer Returns
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Sleep-at-Computer.jpg312467Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-15 01:03:552013-08-15 01:03:55The Death of the Consumer
Featured Trade: (END OF THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE, OR NOT?) (CU), (DBA), (USO), (FCX), (BHP), (ABX), ?(RIO), (JPM), (GS), (ECH), (EWZ), (IDX) (BRING BACK THE SMOKE FILLED ROOMS), (SPX), (TBT)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
United States Oil (USO)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
Rio Tinto plc (RIO)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
iShares MSCI Chile Capped (ECH)
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ)
Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
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In days of old, when congressional impasses presented themselves, the Speaker of the House, rosy-cheeked Tip O?Neil, would meet his counterpart in the Senate for a night of poker. Several bottles of Scotch later, a deal would get struck, and the two would be photographed together shaking hands the next morning, talking about the good of the country. The process moved on.
That doesn?t happen anymore. Speaker John Boehner is new at the job, and he is learning through trial and error, mostly the latter. He is up against a world-class constitutional law professor. I can?t imagine Boehner playing cards with Harry Reid, Obama, or anyone.
Even if he does come to an agreement, it is unlikely that he can make it stick by getting his own party to follow him. Many of the new junior house members are from the Tea Party, whose understanding of economics, financial markets, and the law making process is shaky at best. In another six months they have to start campaigning again, going to their supporters and financial backers with a list of what they have achieved. It is a very short list.
If Tip O?Neal faced recalcitrant members of his own party, he would threaten a cut off in funding of all pork barrel projects in their district, banish them to the least popular committees, and kill any bill they brought to the floor. But at least if Tip cut a deal, you knew he could deliver the votes. Today, rebellious republicans won?t even take a call from Boehner, who view him with almost as much hostility as they do Obama.
What we are seeing here is sausage making in public, in all its odiferous ugliness. It is negotiation out in the open, never a good idea, especially when both sides believe the other is doing so in bad faith.
All of this leads us to bemoan the passing of the Reagan republicans, who you could work with and get a few laughs along the way. It also means that the volatility that I promised you will be arriving by the boatload in coming months. Watch this space.
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Featured Trade: (THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED), ($TNX), (TLT), (TBT), (INDIA VS. CHINA), (FXI), (PIN), (INP), (TTM)
10-Year Treasury Note ($TNX)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP)
Tata Motors Limited (TTM)
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When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 35 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China?s white hot growth rate.
My friends at the International Monetary Fund issued a report predicting that India will grow by 6.5% this year. While the country?s total GDP is only a quarter of China?s $6 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2014.
Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly. Investors are now taking a harder look at the country ETF?s, including India (INP) and China (FXI), which have recently suffered gut churning selloffs.
India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.
But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it?s going to be. The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.
A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage. When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000. That?s why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.
India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world. China?s 30-year-old ?one child? policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.
There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the next People?s Congress could lead to posturing and political instability which the markets could find unsettling. India is the world?s largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization that took place 20 years ago.
I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers. In the past, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), which has since doubled, making it one of my best, all-time single stock picks (click here for ?Take Tata Motors Out for a Spin?). On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF?s (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).
Better to Own This Pyramid
Than This Pyramid
Taxi! Taxi!
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When I sat down at my table at the Namos Restaurant, I was somewhat puzzled by the handful of sand thrown on every table. Are the Greeks as untidy with their food service as they are with their national accounts? Namos is on the south beach of the Greek island of Mykonos, part of the Cyclades chain of ancient fable, and is said to be the hottest nightclub on the island.
From Your Correspondent in Greece
The reason for the sand soon became clear. Shortly thereafter, a gaggle of well-sauced, scantily dressed young ladies climbed on top of my table and started dancing. The sand was there to keep them from slipping. And I found out that the Greek meaning of ?hot? is ?loud?. When my table was cleared of dancers, my lobster dinner was delivered, and a group of partiers jumped up to take a picture of it. Welcome to the Land of Homer, Socrates, and Thucydides!
I told the waitress that she looked just like the girl on the 2,400-year-old vase in the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. She answered, ?It?s in my DNA.? I replied, ?I bet.? Yes, at nearly 62, I know I?m not supposed to be in places like this. But the inner me still wants to be 26.
The Famous Lobster Dinner
I traveled to this distant island to deliver another one of my Global Strategy Luncheons. I originally put it up in the store as a joke, thinking that no one would want to visit this bankrupt country.? There is rioting in the streets of the capital, hotels going bankrupt and keeping your deposit, credit card companies are denying charges, and Eurail has banned use of their continental passes.
To my shock and surprise, a dozen tickets sold. Several hedge fund managers from Europe planned their summer vacations around the event, bringing their families. Greece is a favorite getaway for Russian oligarchs looking to beat the Moscow heat and humidity. European Community officials in Brussels are always looking for an excuse to get out of town, at government expense. There was even a hedge fund manager from Athens who was coming off of a spectacular 2012, playing the short side in the stocks and bonds of his home country.
As we poured over our hotel menus, no one could find anything to eat. It was all some kind of weird Asian/Greek fusion. I?m talking sushi with eggplant and feta cheese. Then my Russian guest piped up, ?Why don?t we eat on my boat??, ?You can host lunch for 13 at sea, with no notice?? I asked. ?Of course!? he beamed.
A Table for 12 Please
Minutes later, two launches appeared at the dockside to take my somewhat excited and expectant guests out into the Aegean Sea. The ?boat? was actually a battleship, a 150-foot long leviathan with three decks, far too large for our small harbor. A quick bridge tour displayed live satellite links, radar, GPS, and enough electronics to be the envy of the US Navy, plus a Bloomberg terminal which the Squids surely lack.
I love doing these things because I always pick up more insightful market intelligence that I am able to dish out. Before I started my presentation, we took turns going around the table, giving views on local market conditions on everything under the sun and a best shot at an outlook.
The really great discovery of the day was an explanation from my Brussels friends as to why it was impossible for the Germans to leave the European Community and the Euro (FXE), (EUO). If Germany returned to the old Deutschemark, it would overnight become the world?s strongest currency, instantly appreciating 200%-300% against what was left of the Euro. Costs for the countries companies would skyrocket.
To survive, they would have to immediately offshore as much production as possible to the lower waged United States and China. Earnings would go through the roof, but the middle class would get wiped out, especially blue-collar workers. With the jobs would go crucial market intelligence and technical innovation. The Fatherland would get hollowed out, remaining just a listing address for firms that made most of their money abroad. Sound familiar?
That means there is no choice for Germany than to continue with the political, economic, and social unification of the continent. If it has to assume the debts of the precarious southern European countries, it is a bargain at the price.
This is easier said that done. The United States offers no real example. The founding fathers were all white, protestant males from identical cultural backgrounds who spoke the same language and accounted for just 5% of the population. Interstate communication took place via horse and rider, and it took three weeks for a message to get from one end of the country to another.
They eventually huddled together in a hot, steamy room in Philadelphia for months in 1776, and didn?t come out until they created a country (you can see a picture of the edifice on the back of a $100 bill).
Few know that a major impetus for the American Revolution was so American debtors could default on burdensome loans to London banks (again, sound familiar?)
Even then, with minimal military experience among them (George Washington had just three years service in what was then the equivalent of the National Guard, and could qualify for a commission in the British Army) there was less than a 5% chance of the nascent government taking on the combined British Army and Navy and winning. The creation of the US is really an historical accident of the 18th century, and couldn?t be repeated today, even in the US.
Switzerland offers a possible pathway for a European future. There, mutually distrustful and suspicious German, French, Italian, and even Latin speaking cantons eventually worked out a loose confederation. But it took 100 years to accomplish. Financial markets won?t be as patient today.
As the lunch wound down, two leggy blondes appeared at our table with two trays of vodka filled shot glasses. Our host toasted The Mad Hedge Fund Trader enterprise, as well as our future success in the markets. I said ?thank you? with a hearty ?nastrovia,? and the launches ferried is back to shore.
The rest of my week in Mykonos was pretty relaxed. I got up at 6:00 am every morning to check the markets, read my email, and to write. By 2:00 pm I was safely in a beach chair, observing the local wildlife, and frequently taking dips in a turquois blue sea.
In a globalized world, the beach attendants in Greece speak English, Italian, and Russian, reflecting the current makeup of the tourist population. The Africans hawking fake Gucci?s and Rolexes are Tanzanian. The young men and women who wander beach chair to beach chair offering cheap massages are all Chinese.
The American and German students who overran the place when I first came here 45 years ago are largely absent. The Yanks are too broke, and the Germans are all visiting America, which is far cheaper and lacking the prejudice they run into here. Creditors are never popular.
Sticking out like a sore thumb were three senior Chinese strolling the beach wearing white bathrobes. It turns out they were working in Athens to soak up billions in high yield Greek debt on behalf of the Bank of China. They thought Mykonos would make an exotic weekend away from the polluted and tumultuous capital.
One day, my frolicking in the waters earned me a coral cut on my foot. Left untreated, these things can infect very rapidly. So I went to the mini market and bought a half bottle of TheFamous Grouse Scotch Whiskey. I poured a small amount on the open sore, and drank the rest. It works every time.
Taking a break from my writing, I explored the medieval downtown of Mykonos, a warren of narrow twisting alleyways squeezed between whitewashed stucco buildings. This was originally a lair for pirates who preyed on Mediterranean shipping 500 years ago.
Today, pirates of a more modern variety storm ashore. Hedge fund managers wielding American Express platinum credit cards disembark from the flotilla of private yachts. The top designer brands are well represented here, and they do a brisk business.
They then retire to the old Venetian quarter for a dinner of moussaka and baklava, to be washed down by local ?Fix? beer. Greek wines have improved a lot in recent decades, and there is a lot to be said for a fine Peloponnesian Chardonnay.
My only near death experience on this leg of the trip was the dubious quadracycle I rented. Apparently, the skills of Greek mechanics leave a lot to be desired, as the rickety machine burned oil, had lousy brakes, and spewed out a plume of noxious, blue smoke. After a few hair-raising hours on the island?s narrow, dilapidated roads facing suicidal, curve passing drivers, I happily returned my ride early.
Testing the skills of the Greek medical community as well was not on my agenda.
Life is good.
I Always Wanted to Ride a Harley
Life is good.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/John-Thomas-Mykonos.jpg367491Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-12 01:03:472013-08-12 01:03:47How The Euro Looks From Mykonos
(AMBUSH IN AUSTRALIA), ?(FXA), (FXY), (FXE), (YCS), (NLR), (UNG), (GLD), (DBA), (REPORT FROM MILAN)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
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For a lifetime central bank watcher, like myself, this was one for the record books.
Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, said last week that he welcomed a weak Australia dollar and that it probably had further to fall. To put gasoline on the flames, he added that there was room for the RBA to further lower interest rates, assuring that more weakness in the Aussie was assured.
The Australian dollar didn?t have to be told twice what to do. All bids for the troubled currency immediately vaporized, and it gapped down two full cents to the 90-cent level, a three-year low. When the Aussie broke a crucial support level at parity in the spring, I predicted that 80 cents was in the cards.
That forecast, bemoaned and lambasted at the time, is now looking increasingly likely. This is why I have been warning my Australian friends all year to pay for their summer vacations in advance while their currency was still dear.
What is far more important here is what the RBA moves means for the global economy. It certainly raises the stakes in the international race to the bottom, where every country tries to devalue their way to prosperity. During the Great Depression, this was known at the ?beggar thy neighbor? policy, a term I?m sure you have all heard a lot about. A cheaper currency means your exports now cost less, so customers shift business from your neighbors to you, boosting your economy.
In recent years, the US was winning that game. Then Japan took over the lead in November, with a yen (FXY), (YCS) that has fallen 25% since. Now, Australia has grabbed first place, with a 15% plunge since March. Who is the big loser in all this? Europe, where even the guy who runs the beach mini mart in Mykonos tells me his economy sucks because his currency (FXE) is grotesquely overvalued.
The sad thing is, I don?t think a weaker Aussie will help the Land Down Under very much, if at all. Their problem is not a price one for their commodities, but a demand one. Everything Australia sells is a commodity where prices are set by a global marketplace.
The slowing of China?s economy is the big driver here, as orders for Australia?s exports of iron ore, copper, and coal fall precipitously. Grains (DBA) sales are hurt by America?s bumper crop, which is killing prices. Fukushima demolished uranium exports (NLR). Australian offshore natural gas (UNG), at $16/btu, doesn?t stack up very well against US fracking gas at $3.50. Gold (GLD) is not exactly flying off the shelf either, with prices at one point this year down 33% from the highs.
There is another big factor, which no one but myself seems to me noticing. The slowdown in Chinese commodity demand is not a temporary affair, it is a permanent one. The government there is making every effort to shift the economy away from commodity consuming, metal bashing exports, to a more services oriented one.
This more suitably matches the Middle Kingdom?s own resource base, of which there are few, towards a higher rung in its own development. You will probably start to hear about this from other strategists, gurus, and research houses in about a year. It is momentous in its implications.
The RBA?s move caught many traders off guard, as they had already begun scaling into long Australian dollar positions, looking for an autumn rally. Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, knew better, and was advising Aussie shorts up to the 94 cent level.
As for me, I?ll be selling every decent Aussie rally for the foreseeable future, until global commodity prices finally bottom, or Australia changes central bank governors, whichever happens first. I bet a lot of Australians right now prefer the latter over the former.
The Thunder Down Under is Fading
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Milan, Italy appears to be a city entirely populated by fashion models riding bicycles on the city?s frenetic, cobblestone streets. That is one?s first impression coming out of the monolithic Milano Centrale train station, built by Mussolini to reaffirm faith in his state. Despite years of allied bombing during WWII, the building is as imposing as the day it was built.
You Think It?s Easy Fitting into a Size 0?
I am here for a day, transiting from my flight from Mykonos in Greece to the train to Zermatt in Switzerland. There I wind up my trip every year with a stiff dose of penance for my gluttonous ways in the form of daily 10-mile Alpine hikes with a 4,000 foot vertical climb.
Milan?s breathtaking August sales make it a mandatory stop each year. There, you can buy the best designer clothes for 90% off because they are the remnants of last year?s collection. I buy clothes for all my kids, all my friends, and even people I don?t like, because the prices are so irresistible. I?m talking a pair of pants for $5 and shirts for $3. Even the extra suitcase I bought to ship everything back was half off. Note to travelers: Corso Buenos Aires is the street to visit.
Here is another tip to future travelers to the fashion capital of the world. Avoid those romantic sidewalk cafes and eat indoors. The clouds of mosquitoes emanating forth from the sewers will eat you alive. The Italians deal with this by placing Japanese mosquito coils under every table. But they can?t catch them all. Better to eat than be eaten. Indoors is also the de facto Italian no smoking zone as well.
On an extra afternoon to spend in this amazing city. I visited Michelangelo?s Last Supper at Santa Maria della Grazie monastery, looking for evidence of the conspiracy theories long ascribed to this masterpiece.
Strolling though the Galleria, the world?s first shopping mall, I stopped by the famed mosaic of a bull set in the floor to step on his balls. Done correctly, it is a swinging, rotating motion. Local custom says this is good luck. Was this the beginning of proto-feminism in the 18th century?
Yes, that was a McDonald?s shop in the background. The city has since banished it from the Galleria, as it is not representative of Italian culture in this important national landmark. Today, you will find a new Prada shop there, packed with Chinese elbowing each other to pay $4,000 for a handbag they can easily pick up in Shenzhen for $10.
I managed to scoot into the main Brioni store just before closing. There, I watched two Russian Mafia types in their thirties buy a half dozen exquisitely tailored, 200 thread count suits each for $8,000. That?s $96,000 worth of clothes?. for guys!
Alas, they don?t carry an American size 48 long in stock, it would have to be a custom order, so I left with only a couple shirts and some $200 ties in hand. In any case, I happen to know that I can get the identical suit at the Brioni shop Caesar?s Palace in Las Vegas for half, thanks to flaccid Uncle Buck, plus they likely have my size.
The next morning found me in a mad dash back to the train station, my taxi driver artfully weaving in and out of traffic, where I boarded a first class Eurostar train. The engine powered North towards the Italian Alps, passing through the Milan slums. Retracing the route seen in the classic Sinatra prisoner of war escape flick, Von Ryan?s Express. Unlike in Frank?s day, first class cars now include screens showing a Google mapping function showing the scenery ahead?from a viewpoint 200 feet above the train. Cool!
Next stop: Zermatt, Switzerland, and the Matterhorn.
To be continued.
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