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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 30, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 30, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHEN GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE), (SPY),
(HEDGE FUNDS CIRCLING OVER THE EUROPEAN WRECKAGE),
(BWX), (IGOV), (ITLY), (EU), (BUND), (FXE),
(TESTIMONIAL)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bd (BWX)
iShares International Treasury Bond (IGOV)
PowerShares DB Italian Treas Bond ETN (ITLY)
WisdomTree Euro Debt (EU)
PIMCO Germany Bond Index ETF (BUND)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-30 08:55:082013-10-30 08:55:08October 30, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Hedge Funds Circling Over the European Wreckage

Diary, Newsletter

Have you ever wanted to spend your summers basking in the sunlight at your mountain top Tuscan villa, surveying the manicured vineyards which produce your own estate bottled wine? Are you drawn by the cachet of claiming George Clooney as a celebrity neighbor on the model strewn shores of Lake Como? How about a luxury apartment that is walking distance from the Vatican?

Hedge fund managers are salivating at the prospect of one of the greatest fire sales in history, as assets of every description were being dumped in the wake of the hard times that hit Europe. On the menu are trillions of dollars of distressed loans hived off by desperately downsizing and deleveraging continental banks. Corporations are expected to dump money losing divisions and subsidiaries in a race to raise cash.

In many respects, these deals of the century represent the second shoe to fall after similar bargains were had in the US during the 2008 crash. Europe?s day of reckoning was postponed by four years, thanks to a recovery in the US, QE1, QE2, QE3, and Federal Reserve policies that kept interest rates at century lows.

The complacency in Europe since then has been staggering, with many turning their noses up, claiming it could never happen there. Some are predicting that the balance sheet scrub could take as long as a decade, similar to Japan?s tortuously long repair of its own banking system.

Some hedge funds are taking advantage of the wholesale withdrawal of European banks from the credit markets to beef up their own international lending?at much higher interest rates. The same funds, like Highbridge, similarly locked in enormous spreads in the US when conditions were dire.

Several American private equity firms are said to be setting up new European distressed asset funds to peddle to pension funds and high net worth individuals. Those who made similar investments in the US four years ago, made fortunes.

For individual investors the easiest and ripest pickings may be among the European bond ETF?s that already trade in the market. Many of these have suffered gut churning declines in recent months as the European melt down unfolded, despite offering yields multiples of what can be found at home.

Below is a short list of continental ETF?s you may want to consider:

PowerShares DB Italian Treasury Bond Fund (ITLY)

Wisdom Tree Euro Debt Fund (EU)

iShares S&P Citigroup International Treasury Bond Fund (IGOV)

SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX)

Germany Bond Index (BUND)

Of course, the eternal question of when to buy is the open to debate. There have been enormous declines in European bond yields since the peak. It was a simple shortage of paper, not any ECB intervention that drove yields down so rapidly.

Aggressive traders are already starting to scale in.

ITLY 10-29-13

EU 10-29-13

IGOV 10-29-13

FatLady2-2The Fat Lady Has Sung for the European Bond Market

George ClooneyHey, Neighbor!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/George-Clooney.jpg 393 394 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-30 08:51:042013-10-30 08:51:04Hedge Funds Circling Over the European Wreckage
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 29, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD DAY TRADER EDUCATIONAL WEBINAR),
(THE RUN IN BONDS IS OVER),
(TLT), (JNK), (HYG), (MUB), (ELD), (LINE),
(AUSTERITY HITS WALL STREET)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-29 01:06:152013-10-29 01:06:15October 29, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 28, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 28, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WHY US STOCKS ARE DIRT CHEAP),
(SPY), (IWM), (QQQ), (TSLA)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-28 01:05:342013-10-28 01:05:34October 28, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Last Chance to Attend the November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

San Francisco

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg 238 359 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-28 01:04:532013-10-28 01:04:53Last Chance to Attend the November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 25, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 25, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEEL LIKE INVESTING IN A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM?),
(GAF), (AFK), (EZA),
(WHO SAYS THERE AREN?T ANY JOBS?),
(WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?)
(GLD), (GDX)
(THE TWELVE DAY YEAR)

SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)
Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK)
iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-25 01:07:232013-10-25 01:07:23October 25, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Feel Like Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Diary, Newsletter

How about buying shares in a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped?

Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world's highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 million dead in a continuous civil war?

Then, Africa is the place for you! Today, it is the world's largest source of gold, diamonds, iridium, chocolate, and cobalt. The countries above are Libya, Nigeria, Egypt, and the Congo. Below the radar of the investment community since the colonial days, the Dark Continent has recently been attracting the attention of large hedge funds and private equity firms.

Goldman Sachs has set up Emerging Capital Partners, which has already invested $2 billion there. China sees the writing on the wall, and has launched a latter day colonization effort, taking a 20% equity stake in South Africa's Standard Bank, the largest on the continent. There are now thought to be over one million Chinese agricultural workers in Africa.

In fact, foreign direct investment in 2010 jumped from $53 billion to $61 billion, while cross border M & A leapt from $10.2 billion to $26.3 billion. The angle here is that all of the terrible headlines above are in the price, that prices are very low, and the perceived risk is much greater than actual risk.

Price earnings multiples are low single digits, cash flows are huge, and returns of capital within two years are not unheard of. These numbers remind me of those found in Japan during the fifties, right after it lost WWII.

The reality is that Africa's 900 million have unlimited demand for almost everything, and there is scant supply, with many firms enjoying local monopolies. The big plays are your classic early emerging market targets, like banking, telecommunications, electric power, and other infrastructure.

For example, in the last decade, the number of telephones has soared from 350,000 to 10 million. It's similar to the early days of investing in China in the seventies, when the adventurous only played when they could double their money in two years, because the risks were so high.

This is definitely not for day traders. If you are willing to give up a lot of short term liquidity for a high long term return, then look at the Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK), which has 29% of its holdings in South Africa and 20% in Nigeria. There is also the SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF). For more of a rifle shot, entertain the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (EZA). Don't rush out and buy these today. Instead, wait for emerging markets to come back in vogue, I'll send you a trade alert when this is going to happen.

AFK 10-24-13

GAF 10-24-13

EZA 10-24-13

AfricanMeet Your New Partner

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/African.jpg 322 512 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-25 01:06:442013-10-25 01:06:44Feel Like Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 24, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 24, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE CASE AGAINST TREASURY BONDS), (TBT), (TLT),
(MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONMIC INDICATOR),
(HMC), (NSANY), (DXJ)
(A FILM REVIEW OF ?MARGIN CALL?)

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-24 01:06:062013-10-24 01:06:06October 24, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Film Review of ?Margin Call?

Diary, Newsletter

Now it?s time for some cultural edification. I first became aware of ?Margin Call? as a pre-production project four years ago when news leaked out that the principal actors, Kevin Stacey, Demi Moore, Stanley Tucci, and Jeremy Irons, were reading The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader to learn about the industry and get in character.

The plot covers a 24-hour period on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis at a fictitious Wall Street house obviously modeled on Lehman Brothers. A strategic downsizing sacks the firm?s risk manager, Stanley Tucci, who casually mentions to a young associate as he carries his cardboard box down the elevator that the firm is on the verge of getting wiped out in the subprime securities market.

A series of emergency, all night meetings ensue. At the last minute, the CEO, John Tuld, not to be confused with Lehman?s Dick Fuld, alights, godlike, on the roof in a helicopter, obviously clueless about what has been going on in his firm, and the securities involved. The decision is made to dump their entire position at a huge loss at the market opening, even if it means causing the failure of many of the firm?s clients and counterparties.

When the sales staff rebel, they are offered extra million dollar bonuses if the positions are gone by noon. On orgy of predatory salesmanship ensues, which I have seen myself on trading floors a thousand times. In an hour, prices for some bonds drop 40%. The firm lives on to fight another day, but only at the cost of wiping out reputations and ending careers. The CEO has a laugh and flies away.

Those in the business will uncomfortably recognize many of the hard hearted practices, half-truths, and ethical lapses endemic on Wall Street. It really is only about making money and survival of the fittest.

Despite being a total flop at the box office on a limited release, the acting is incredible. The movie is still showing on some long distance, intercontinental flights. So if you have some free time, order the DVD on Netflix (but don?t touch the stock!).

And hey, Kevin baby, have your people call my people and let?s do lunch when I?m in Beverly Hills in January!

Kevin Spacey

Stanley Tucci

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Kevin-Spacey.jpg 295 444 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-24 01:03:002013-10-24 01:03:00Film Review of ?Margin Call?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 23, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 23, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE WORST IS YET TO COME), (SPY),
(MY OLD PAL, LEONARDO FIBONACCI),
(TESTIMONIAL)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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