February 12, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNALong at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
RIG Short Feb 15th - $9 Call @ $0.26

NLS Long at $7.66
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Yesterday, I suggested you buy NLS. The stock could have been bought for $7.66. As I said in the alert, this stock is seriously oversold and the trade is based on an expected bounce.

And speaking of bounce, Friday you should have closed out the short call on RRC. The timing was impeccable as RRC rallied almost 10% yesterday. Assuming we get some follow through on RRC, I will look to sell more calls.

Yesterday, the S & P 500 opened 4.52 points above Friday's high.

After moving straight up to a high of 2,718.05 within the first half hour, the market pulled back the balance of the day.

For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 42% of the daily price bar. And the range was only 14.26 points.

This was certainly a contraction when you compare it to the daily average true range of 33.86 points.

This contraction, along with the price action is bearish.

But, as I have been saying, the short term charts remain bullish, so I continue to be biased to the upside.

And as you know, the key at the moment is the midband on the daily chart. Sorry to sound like a broken record, but as I said the other day, I felt a retest of the midband from below is the most likely scenario.

And that is what is happening.

And the market closed slightly above last week's close of 2,707.88.

As I said yesterday, this should be a level to be monitored. Closing above it, now suggests it should be support.

The next weekly level to monitor will be the high which was 2,738.98.

A failure to take out the high would indicate that the market should pull back.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 18 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,728.

If this trading continues until the open, the market would be about 2 points under the midband.

No doubt the midband gets tested today.

If the S & P 500 can clear the midband, it would suggest that it would become support.

And if you know if it fails, the market should head down.

Tomorrow is our regularly scheduled webinar. I hope to see you on the webinar.

Earnings do continue this week. One of the most closely watched companies will be NVDA which reports Thursday after the close.

BIDU also reports Thursday.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed at 16.01. The VIX got as high as 16.50 before selling off the balance of the day.

Watch to see if the VIX breaks under the 15.63 level. If it does, it should be resistance and head lower.

The next lower to the downside is 14.85. Two closes under that level the VIX should test 12.50.

16.80 is minor resistance.

SPX:

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10

The S & P 500 has now had three closes under 2,714.88. This does suggest that a drop to 2,656 is possible.

But, I would expect support at 2,695.30. And if the S & P 500 breaks through 2,744, it should head higher.

Minor support is at 2,712 and the S & P 500 should open above it.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69

The QQQ closed at 168.40 yesterday. With an active objective up to 175, I would still expect a rally.

The QQQ closed 70 cents under the midband of 169.30. If the QQQ can clear the midband today, look for it to offer support.

167.19 is minor support.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31**
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81

The IWM closed at 151.10. At this point, the IWM will need two closes above 151.56 to move up to 156. But, it needs to clear 150 to head higher.

Clearing 150 was bullish. 150 should now be support. And minor support is at 150.78.

TLT:

Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75

The TLT closed at 121.87. This was one cent under the major 121.88 level.

At this point, I would expect support at the minor 121.49 level. But two closes under it would suggest a test of 120.31.

On the upside, resistance is at 122.66.

GLD:

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed at 123.60. Biased for a drop to 121.88, but it may hit 125 first. A close under 124.22 today would confirm the drop to 121.88.

122.66 is minor support. And 125.78 is resistance on the upside.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 63.24. Two closes above 63.28 and the XLE should head up to 65.63.

62.50 should offer support.

And 64.06 should offer minor resistance.

Short term charts remain bullish. And technical support is at 63.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48 **
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50 <
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY closed at 86.44. The FXY finally broke under the midband which is 86.79.

This level should now be resistance.

The next minor level on the downside is 85.94. Two closes under 85.94 and the FXY should drop to 85.16.

If the FXY breaks under 86.33, look for it to head lower.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Apple closed yesterday at 169.43. 168.75 should be support.

If it does not hold, I would expect a move to 167.19.

Biased for a move up.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, AVGO, WDAY, ZBRA, VRSN, EW, ADP, ADSK, DECK, V, EXPE, VRSK, DG, CHKP, AXP, IRBT

Bearish Stocks: TTWO, ABBV, SNE, BABY, ERJ

Be sure to check earnings release dates.