February 5, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Short Jan $14 Call - $.35
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The unemployment report came in today and fell to an eight year low. The rate fell to 4.9% from 5%.
Market reaction is rather tepid with the S & P 500 down about 5 points as I write this. (Pre open)
Based on the analysis I provide, I feel the objective should be to 1,937.50, so I am still biased to the upside.
This is because the S & P managed to close above the 1,890 level yesterday.
Reactions off of earnings have been rather tepid this week, other than the 24% move on KORS or the 15% drop on RCL.
Having said that, this morning should see the grand daddy of earnings move.
It appears that LinkedIn will open down around $65 this morning. This is a move of almost 34%.
On next week's webinar I will share some trading strategies around earnings.
Sunday of course, is the Super Bowl 50 between the Broncos and the Panthers.
Enjoy the game!
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 37.50
Minor level - 32.81
Major level - 31.25
Minor level - 29.68
Minor level - 26.56
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44 *
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
The VIX did close under the 23.44 level yesterday, so a move back down to 18.75 is confirmed.
Look for higher levels to act as resistance.
I do want to mention that yesterday had a divergence. A divergence in that both the VIX and the S&P both closed to the upside.
Normally, they close opposite each other.
S & P 500 Cash Index:
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
Minor level - 1,921.88
Minor level - 1,890.62 *
Major level - 1,875.00
Minor level - 1,859.38
Minor level - 1,828.12
Major level - 1,812.50
With a close yesterday above 1,890.62, it confirms that the objective should be 1,937.50.
Lower levels should act as support. Trigger to go long is to see the VIX reverse to the downside off a resistance level.
1,906 should also offer support.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.47
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35 *
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
Minor level - 99.21
Minor level - 97.66
Major level - 96.88
The QQQ did close under 102.35, so there is a downside bias to 100.
101.56 is a minor support level and 100 is a major support level.
TLT:
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 128.91 *
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.34 *
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
If the TLT can close above 128.13 for a few days, it is possible to see a move up to the 137 area.
The TLT closed just above 128.13 yesterday. It closed at 128.57.
A close today above 128.13 and the objective becomes 131.25.
Lower levels should act as support.
GLD:
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38 *
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
The GLD did take out the 109.38 level, so buying pullbacks at this point is the logical thing to do.
A close today above 110.16 and the GLD should move up to 112.50.
Lower levels should act as support.
XLE:
Major level - 59.38
Minor level - 58.60
Minor level - 57.03
Major level - 56.25
Minor level - 54.69 *
Minor level - 51.56
Major level - 50.00
Minor level - 43.75
The objective should be to 59.38 because the XLE closed above 57.02 for two days.
Lower levels should act as support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
You should be out of Apple for a profit.
If Apple can get any traction, I would put the position back on.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: KMB, STZ, MCD, DLR, ATO, ED, FSLR, PNW
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, BWLD, ALXN, MNST, PII, BIDU, VRTX, SWK, GILD, LAD, HAR, TRIP, BABA, Q
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
