
In Silicon Valley, you’re either a unicorn or a dinosaur, and if you are the latter,
you are investable,” said a venture capital friend of mine.
"Nobody knew it was August 1982 until it was August 1984," said Chris Verone, head of technical analysis at research boutique Strategas.
Global Market Comments
August 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I STILL HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE)
(TESTIMONIAL)
I seem to have a recurring problem.
People make so much money from my concierge service that they retire early, and I never hear from them again.
July was particularly egregious because I piled followers into selling short Tesla (TSLA) puts, followed by a stunning 57% move up.
That trade brought my 2022 year-to-date performance to +56.97%, a new high. The Dow Average is down -7.0% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 74.76%.
As a result, I still have one remaining Mad Hedge Concierge place open. I limit the service to only ten clients at any one time.
The goal is to provide high-net-worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.
It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support their own in-house global strategist full time.
The service includes the following:
1) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.
2) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.
3) Personal meetings with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions.
4) You get my personal cell phone number so I can act as your investment 911.
5) Early releases of strategy letters and urgent trading information.
6) More detailed recommendations on LEAPS, or two-year call options on the best high-growth names.
The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $12,000 a year.
To best take advantage of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, you should possess the following:
1) Be an existing subscriber of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader who is already well aware of our strengths and limitations.
2) Have a liquid net worth of over $250,000.
3) Possess a degree of knowledge and sophistication on financial markets. This is NOT for beginners.
To subscribe to Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, please email Filomena at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put “Concierge Candidate” in the subject line.
I look forward to hearing from you.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
August 17, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(VENICE STRATEGY LUNCHEON REPORT)
You really can’t beat the roof of the 14th century Hotel Danieli in Venice for an annual strategy luncheon.
You have a panoramic view of the Grand Canal. The Palace of the Doges is right next door and Saint Marks is around the corner. The canal is packed with every conceivable type of watercraft motoring back and forth.
The water teems with tourist-bearing gondolas filming every moment. How these many conveyances avoid crashing into each other is nothing less than amazing.
Having visited Venice for 54 years, I can tell you that there is something magical in the air. That’s because everyone there is having the greatest time of their lives, including the people who live there.
A hundred years ago, my grandfather passed through on his way to join Ernest Hemingway at the Alpine front in WWI. I first came to town 50 years later in 1968, when most of the tourists were Americans, shacking up in a bargain basement pensione.
The heiress Peggy Guggenheim was still living in her waterfront palace, enjoying the Bohemian lifestyle. Her father went down with the Titanic, so she received her inheritance early. Back then, I lacked the connections and the money to join that elevated social circle.
I was a regular visitor to Venice during the 1980s, flying my twin-engine Cessna direct from London, past the imposing Mont Blanc, and landing at Marco Polo airport. Once a thunderstorm hit me on landing that was so severe, we were stuck on the runway for an hour.
But you never forget that speedboat run from the airport to the city. Never tell your water tax driver you are in a hurry if you want to live to tell about it.
There the kids bought souvenirs and fed the hordes of pigeons. Alas, the pigeons are gone now, banned as a health hazard.
Today, Venice is chock full of Americans once again taking advantage of a Euro (FXE) at 20-year lows. But they are Americans of a different sort. The Danieli was full of incredibly wealthy young couples dressed to the nines and wearing tons of expensive jewelry. They were all Bitcoin billionaires who sold out at the top last year and were drowning in cash.
To say I was welcomed by my guests at the luncheon would be an understatement.
All said they had enjoyed the best investment year of their lives. They also admitted they had never made money in a falling market before. Those committed to the long side, like financial advisors and mutual fund managers, had massively outperformed the indexes. That’s why they flew in from Germany, France, Spain, and Rome.
I told them my story and I’m sticking to it. A weak first half will be followed by a very strong second half. It’s looking like I missed the bottom by two weeks, shares capitulating on June 15 and the Volatility Index (VIX) topping out at $35.
I promise to try harder next time.
Most investors are now sitting on double-digit losses for 2022 and are desperately trying to claw their way back into the market. That’s why it goes up every day. By comparison, Mad Hedge followers are up 57% during the same period.
My other predictions did pretty well too. Inflation has peaked and could be as low as 4% by yearend. Oil prices have also taken a nosedive, thanks to Russia’s catastrophic showing in the Ukraine War.
I finally did get to visit Peggy Guggenheim’s home this year, just one stop on the vaporetto from the Danieli. Now it is a museum featuring her favorite modern artists, most of whom were former lovers.
I did say Bohemian.
I think I’ll try to work in another Venice Strategy Luncheon next year. No Hotel Danieli though as it has been sold to the Four Seasons group and is in for a three-year gutting and modernization. I hope they don’t ruin it.
However, I hear the Orient Express goes to Venice as well. I better get those tuxes back from the dry cleaner!
Piazza San Marco in Venice 1968
Venice in 2022
Grandpa Venice 1918
“There is something so different in Venice from any other place in the world, that you leave all accustomed habits and everyday sights to enter an enchanted garden,” said the 19th century author Mary Shelley.
Global Market Comments
August 16, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, AUGUST 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TLT), (TSLA),
Happy and newly enriched followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service have a couple of good fortune to own a record ten deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, February 18 at the stock market close in two days.
It is therefore time to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These involve the:
(TSLA) 8/$500 put spread 10.00%
(TLT) 8/123-$126 put spread
Provided that we don’t have another 2,000-point move down in the market this week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the United States US Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) $123-$126 vertical bear put debit spread. Since we are a massive $7.00 in the money with only three days left until expiration I will almost certainly will run into expiration.
Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $3.00 expiration value - $2.60 cost = $0.40 net profit
(40 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.40 profit per option)
= $1,600 or 15.38% in 21 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, August 22 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, August 19. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.

The Options Expiration is Coming
Global Market Comments
August 15, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or WHAT THE MARKET IS REALLY DISCOUNTING NOW),
(SPY), (TLT), (AAPL), (AXP), (KO), (XOM). (TBT), (SNOW), (NFLX), (ARKK), (ETHE),
(NLR), (CCR), CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (UUP), (FXA), (FXC), (BA), (TSLA)












