It is the end of the semester at the University of California, and as a single parent, the unenviable task of retrieving my daughters out of the dorms for the holidays fell to me.

When I arrived, I was stunned to find nothing less than a war zone. Both sides of every street were lined with mountains of trash, the unwanted flotsam and jetsam cast aside by departing students.

Computer desk, embarrassingly stained mattresses, broken lava lamps, and an assortment of heavily worn Ikea furniture were there for the taking. Newly arriving students were sifting through the piles, looking for that reusable gem.

Diminutive Chinese teenagers were seen pushing massive suitcases on wheels down the sidewalk on their way back to Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong. The university attempted to bring order to the chaos by strategically placing dumpsters on every block, but they were rapidly filled to overflowing.

It was all worth it because of the insight it gave me into one of my favorite, least-known leading economic indicators. When I picked up the truck at U-HAUL, the lot was absolutely packed with returned vehicles, and there were more parked on both sides of the streets.

The booking agent told me there is a massive influx of people moving into California from the Midwest and the Northwest, with the result that lots all over the San Francisco Bay Area are filled to capacity.

I love this company because, in addition to providing a great service, they get the first indication of any changes to the migratory habits of Americans. The last time I saw this happen was after the dotcom bust when thousands of tech-savvy, newly unemployed pulled up stakes in the foggy city and moved to Lake Tahoe to work in “the cloud.”

Bottom line: California is enjoying a resurgence of hiring and new economic growth, most likely driven by Artificial Intelligence. This is what the stock market is screaming at us right now.

 

 

Want a Great Deal on a Used Lava Lamp?

By the time you read this, I will be 200 miles off the west coast of  Mexico on the Coral Princess. I’ll be occupying the spacious owner's suite and packing all three of my tuxes (and all my black socks) just to make sure I am never underdressed.

You see, I need a vacation.

I have been working nonstop for decades and desperately need a break. It seems that the older I get, the more I know the more in demand I become. Why quit taking tests when I already know all the answers?

You can tear up your Rolodex card for me, unfriend me on Facebook, designate my email address as SPAM, and block my Twitter account. It won’t do you any good.

If I don’t take some time off, I am going to start raving MAD!

Over the last 17 years, I have worked the hardest in my entire life. And the last year, I have had to work with a bullet wound in my hip courtesy of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Whenever I have free time, I go fight a war. That’s who you want calling your trades.

This year, I have brought in a total return of +75.25%, versus +27% for the S&P 500, far and away among the best of my life and almost certainly yours as well. If you got half of my performance, you beat virtually everyone else in the industry, even the best hedge funds. In other words, I underpromised and over delivered….in spades. That is my way.

If you wonder why I do this, it’s really very simple. Read my inbox, and you would burst into tears.

Every day, I learn tales of mortgages paid off, student loans dealt with, college educations financed, and early retirements launched. I am improving lives by the thousands. That’s far better than any hedge fund bonus could offer me, although I wouldn’t mind owning the Golden State Warriors.

At this late stage in my life, the most valuable thing is to be needed and listened to. If that means becoming a cult leader, that’s fine with me. After all, the last guy to try this route got crucified.

When horrific uncontrollable wildfires broke out in California, I flew volunteer spotter planes for Cal Fire, holding the stick with one hand and a pair of binoculars with the other, looking for trouble and radioing in coordinates, and directing aerial tankers. Nobody can fly wildfires like I can.

I lost access to my Lake Tahoe house when the big fire hit right in the middle of a remodel. All the contractors disappeared, chasing much higher-paying insurance work. At least we now have a 20-mile-wide fire break to the southwest of the house.

I have high hopes for next summer, starting with my seminar at sea across the Atlantic in June, then a trip on the Orient Express to Venice, another Matterhorn climb in July, client visits in Europe for August, flying Spitfires in England in September, and hiking the 170 mile Tahoe Rim Trail in October.

On top of all this, I was on speed dial at the Joint Chiefs and the US Marine Corps. A major? Really? And now I’m a major in two armies, the US and Ukraine. Seems you’re not the only one in desperate need of global macro advice.

So, I will spend the next 16 days reading the deep research, speaking with old hedge fund buddies, the few still left alive, and trying to come up with a game plan for 2025. One thing is certain: we will likely make a lot more money next year, the setup is so clear. Market volatility is about to go through the roof.

Instead of sending out urgent trade alerts, emergency news flashes, and more research than you can read, I’ll be playing Monopoly and Risk, practicing my banjo, and catching up on some classic films.

I already have one trade-on: I’ll watch Elf for the millionth time if the kids watch Gary Cooper’s 1949 Task Force, the history of Naval Aviation (semper fi).

In the meantime, I’ll be running some of my favorite research pieces from the past over the next two weeks. Hot Tips will include the same.

So, everyone, please have some great holidays, spend your monster Tesla profits well, and get well rested.

We have some serious work to do in 2025.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,

John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Selling Christmas Trees for the Boy Scouts