I never cease to be impressed with the readers of this newsletter.
I was reminded of this once again in Portland, Ore, a few months ago.
Readers seem to fall into three categories.
1) Entrepreneurs whose businesses become so successful that they are throwing off plenty of excess cash to invest. This leads them to an online search (they are also technically very savvy) that brought them to my newsletter.
One of my Portland guests runs a manufacturing business that builds drones. In five years his gross revenues have rocketed from $400,000 a year to $40 million, and he says the best has yet to come.
Two years ago, the Federal Aviation Administration predicted that there would be 1,500 drones in the air by 2020. Today, there are 220,000.
Interestingly, he says he is now besieged by constant foreign takeover offers. These are from European and Asian firms that have gone ex growth and are desperately searching for new profit streams at any cost. So far, he has rebuffed all comers.
2) Financial advisors who have been following my long-term macro and trading advice and who have also become very successful. Winning financial advisors always have new clients and cash coming, which they need to know how to invest.
3) Young men and women in 20s and 30s who dropped out of the mainstream economy and taught themselves to become professional full-time traders.
Perhaps several hundred earn a full-time living just off of my own Trade Alerts. This business has taken a quantum leap with my introduction of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
My first-hand observations of the economy in no way indicate that it is in no way performing at a suboptimal 2.5% GDP growth rate.
Airplanes going anywhere are all full. The airports are packed. The cost of overnight parking in San Francisco has risen by 100%. The free electric charging stations, of which there are now 50, are always full.
My favorite Pendleton store in Portland no longer has sales. It’s full price for everything everywhere now. People have plenty of money to spend.
Stores are stocking more expensive, higher margin profits and offering imaginative displays.
Placing your goods on worn-out industrial heavy machines is a popular approach in Portland. I spend more time analyzing the machines than the goods for sale.
The irony is rich.
Restaurants are more expensive, too, always are full, and are also making the grab for higher margins. They now offer food that is gluten free, locally gown and “artisanal.”
When I ordered a steak I was informed that it was hormone- and preservative-free. I asked if I could have one WITH hormones and preservatives, as they put hair on my chest and preserve me as well.
No wonder everyone thinks I’m weird.
Of course, the ultimate expression of this strategy can be found in Portland’s burgeoning marijuana industry.
Huge billboards along the freeways offer “organic” pot by the kilo. It seems they, too, are seeking that 30% markup that Whole Foods and Costco (COST) reap from organic groceries.
Yet there is evidence also of the failed America, the people got left behind. At one stoplight I encountered a family of four holding a big sign in the pouring rain pleading, “We need money.”
They had recently been evicted from their home. All had serious health problems and were morbidly obese. They looked legit. Maybe it was a health care induced bankruptcy?
I asked no questions, made no judgments, and gave them $20. They reacted like they had won the lottery.
The country clearly is not perfect.



"Getting information off the Internet is akin to trying to sweep back the ocean with a broom," said Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google.

Global Market Comments
March 15, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, APRIL 6 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE TOP SIX CHINESE RETAILIATION TARGETS),
(AAPL), (GM), (WMT), (TGT), (BA), (SBUX), (CAT),
(AND MY PREDICTION IS?.)

Global Market Comments
March 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TEN REASONS WHY APPLE IS GOING TO $200),
(AAPL), (AVGO), (QCOM), (GOOGL), (AMZN),
(TEN REASONS WHY STOCKS CAN'T SELL OFF BIG TIME),
(SPY)

Here it is mid-March, and Apple is already closing in on my 2018 target of $200. Indeed, with a market capitalization today of $930 billion, Apple is on the verge of becoming the world's first $1 trillion publicly traded company.
And here's the really great thing about this year for Apple bulls. If you had the right cajones you had a chance to load the boat just above $150 only five weeks ago.
If you did, as I begged, pleaded, and beseeched you to do, your Apple trade earned a handy 22.33% at today's $183.50 high.
Now for the good news. The best is yet to come. In fact, there are ten reasons why Apple shares should hit my lofty target sometime this year.
1) Share buy backs are first and foremost. With $280 worth of cash in the bank abroad, and two thirds of that committed to buy back Apple stock, shareholders essentially have a free put option.
Indeed, you could see the company's invisible hand in the marketplace during the recent correction, soaking up shares at every opportunity. We won't learn the true numbers until the next quarterly earnings report on May 1.
2) Valuation is still the overwhelming factor driving institutions into Apple stock. With a price earnings multiple of 18X and a dividend yield of 1.40%, Apple is trading not only at a discount to the main market, but a discount to most of tech as well. No one ever got fired for buying Apple, at least not recently.
3) Apple's sales are as good as ever. The expected draw down in between new phone launches is proving less than expected. All of the channel checks suggesting a bigger drop have proven unfounded.
4) The rest of technology is on fire. Even if Apple were stumbling now, which it isn't, it would get dragged up by the meteoric moves seen in the rest of the FANG's.
5) The administration's nixing of the Broadcom (AVGO) takeover of QUALCOMM (QCOM), protects the principal supply of propriety chips for Apple phone safe from foreign interference. Broadcom could have chopped the research budget or transferred crucial technology to foreign competitors.
6) Apple is broadening its product lines, shifting to a new business model that delivers multiple new phones at the same time. This will include low priced models that will compete in new markets like India, as well as go head to head with the market share leaders, Samsung. This will increase market share and profitability.
7) While Apple possesses only 8% of the global cell phone market, it accounts for a staggering 92% of cell phone profits. Apple effectively has a monopoly on cell phone profits.
8) Their new lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products and demand more phones. That will bring larger profits.
9) Apple continues to inexorably move into new products and services. While the company was late with the HomePod to compete against Amazon's (AMZN) Alexa and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Home, integration with the rest of the Apple ecosystem will enable the company to have the last laugh. Watch out for Apple Pay. Health care is another big target area.
10) Standards of living are rising worldwide. And guess what the first thing a newly enriched middle class does around the planet? They dump their Samsung Galaxies and Google Androids and join the IPhone club for the enhanced status alone.


I Hear Apple is Diversifying
Global Market Comments
March 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY LITHIUM IS ABOUT TO REPLACE OIL),
(SQM), (ALM), (FMC), (MLNLF),
(THERE ARE NO GURUS),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

Global Market Comments
March 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE TEFLON MARKET THAT WON'T QUIT),
(AAPL), (FB), (FXE), (TLT), (FXY),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, MARCH 16 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (FXE), (FB)

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I hate using worn out, hackneyed cliches like "Teflon market" or "Goldilocks," but it was one heck of a Teflon Goldilocks market last week.
The FANG's truly went bananas.
Stocks had every excuse for the wheels to fall off.
The president's chief economic advisor resigned. The US declared the most ferocious trade war since the 1930's, which should cut US GDP growth by 0.5%. The administration appeared to be lurching from one disaster to the next.
And it all turned out to be yet another fabulous buying opportunity, and a chance to go solidly "RISK ON".
As I expected.
It is another demonstration of an old trading nostrum that has served me faithfully for half a century. If you throw bad news on a market and it fails to fall, you buy it.
With the buckets of bad news poured on the market it should go ballistic.
And so it has.
If you were long technology stocks like (INTC), (AAPL), (FB), short US Treasury bonds (TLT), and short the Euro (FXE), as I have been begging, pleading, and beseeching you to do, you just saw one of your best trading weeks of the year.
And guess what? It's going to get a lot better. We still have two months of seasonal buying before stocks depart for the normal summer correction. And you can make a lot of money in two months.
What really poured gasoline on the fire was a blockbuster February Nonfarm Payroll Report, up some 313,000. That is 120,000 over expectations. The Headline Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% a ten year low.
The real crusher was that this frenetic rate of job creation caused Hourly Wages to go up only 0.1%, or essential zero, meaning that inflation is nowhere to be seen anywhere. It was a number that left economists everywhere scratching their heads.
The December and January reports were revised upward by 54,000 jobs.
Construction was up by 61,000, Retail was up 50,000, and Professional and Business Services up by 50,000. No doubt a big chunk of this was prompted by deficit financed tax cuts.
The only sector showing job losses was in Information Technology, down some 12,000.
The U-6 broader "discouraged worker" jobless rate stayed at 8.2%.
Overall, the total size of the workforce jumped by 806,000, the largest gain since 1983.
It was essentially a perfect report.
I would be remiss in not remembering the nine-year anniversary of the end of the stock market crash on March 9, 2009.
In those days, the S&P 500 futures were wildly swinging at 100 points a pop. The Nonfarm Payroll Reports were then printing horrifying losses of 700,000 a month.
As the bad news always seemed to come out on Sundays, you could buy a put option at the Friday afternoon close and it would be up 400% at the Monday morning opening. We raked the profits in. Those were the days!
I turned bullish a week later and have remained so ever since. How times have changed.
It was another great week for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service, almost clawing our way all the way back to another new all-time high. We only need to make another 1.95% and we'll be there, hopefully sometime next week.
A double position in Apple (AAPL) really gave us a turbocharger, with that stock just short of a new all-time high, and up $10 from our last "BUY". The Iron Condor in Facebook (FB) will expire at its maximum profit point on Friday.
We already took profits in our short in the US Treasury bond market (TLT) on a quick 48-hour turnaround. The short position in the Euro is firing on all cylinders.
Mercifully, we got out of your short in the Japanese yen (FXY) at cost as a risk control measure. It looks like those who kept the positon will get the maximum profit there anyway.
Having survived the February nightmare, I now feel invincible.
This coming week is fairly subdued on the data front.
On Monday, March 12 nothing of note is released.
On Tuesday, March 13 at 8:30 AM we learn the all-important February Consumer Price Index to see if inflation really is asleep. This has recently become one of the most important numbers of the month.
On Wednesday, March 14, at 8:30 AM EST, we get February Retail Sales.
Thursday, March 15 leads with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly Jobless Claims are announced at the same time.
On Friday, March 16 at 8:30 AM EST we get the February Housing Starts.
At the close we undergo a Quadruple Witching in the options market with several monthly series expiring today.
At 1:00 PM we receive the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which saw a small rise of only one last week.
As for me, I am going to be shopping for a new Steinway Grand Piano. I have made so much money this year that it's time to upgrade and go for the max with a Model D concert grand piano!
Good luck and good trading!















