
If you are an investor, trader, or financial advisor, there is only one word in the English language today:
Yield
That is my conclusion after speaking to readers on my 12 day, 11 state, 8 city US tour.
Having underperformed the indexes and posted negative returns for the last two years, many money managers are now facing the bleak prospect of delivering losses for a third year in a row.
That is, unless, they have the good fortune to read the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. However, even I have been hard pressed to deliver my usual double-digit returns. This year I have delivered the slowest start to a year since I started the business eight years ago.
Brokerage clients are fed up. They would rather earn nothing on their cash than write another check to the market. That means firing their manager, dumping their ETFs, and running up the white flag of surrender.
That is why the bounce back in shares in February was so frenetic and violent. The window for a good entry point opened so briefly that if you blinked, you missed it.
US stocks are now the world?s preeminent high yield asset, with top quality shares boasting 2-5% dividend yields. The bottom line is that portfolio managers have to buy stocks or lose their jobs.
This is no easy task. S&P 500 earnings multiples at 19X are at a decade high. This is against a postwar range of 9-24X.
They have achieved this lofty height while Q1 GDP growth forecasts have been chopped from 2.3% to a mere 0.50%, thanks to the weakness imported from Europe, China, and Japan.
If you recognize this as an ugly picture you would be right. Managers have the choice now of buying stocks and committing suicide, or not buying stocks and committing suicide.
And Solomon thought he had a hard time making a decision!
This is why I am employing every risk avoidance measure I know of, like keeping 80%-90% of my assets in cash, and playing the indexes instead of single names.
Fortunately,it is not like the world is completely devoid of opportunities. Gold has been a reliable earner. Buy every $50 dip in the barbarous relic.
High quality REIT?s and Master Limited Partnerships are still offering double digit yields, and some of the biggest spreads over cash in history.
Emerging markets and commodities have probably entered new long term bull markets, but I wouldn?t necessary buy them today.
Blame our current conundrum on negative interest rates, which are blowing up traders? models everywhere. It?s not like you can say ?Well, the last time we had negative interest rates? because we?ve never had them before.
Even though NIRP isn?t in the US yet, the effects from Europe and Japan are being felt around the world.
To end this letter on an upbeat note, I think the markets are setting up for a monster rally in the fall. Removal of election uncertainty will be a big factor. The last time a Clinton was elected, stocks rose 400% in eight years.
Hillary could do the same, especially with a huge demographic tailwind of big spending Millennials kicking in in a few years.
The move to a carbon free economy that eventually leads to nearly free energy, hyper accelerating technology and health care advances will give all risk assets more of a push than Bill ever got.


Ready for a Repeat?
?He worked as if he would live forever. He lived as if he would die tomorrow?, said a note found in Franklin Delano Roosevelt?s private papers after he died.

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Global Market Comments
April 25, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY THE BULL MARKET HAS TWO YEARS TO RUN),
(SPY), (TLT),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
?
The bull market has at least two years to run, and possibly more.
This is the prediction that I have been hammering away at listeners with at my many speaking engagements, webinars, and global strategy luncheons all year.
But don?t take my word for it.
This also happens to be the opinion of my friend, Leon Cooperman, the legendary hedge fund manager at Omega Advisors.
I ran into my aged mentor in New York where we jointly analyzed and dissected our investment future.
Leon thinks that at a 17.5X earnings multiple, valuation are OK. He expects a total return for the S&P 500 (SPY) of 7-9%, including a 2% dividend. His outlook for all fixed income investments (TLT) is extremely negative.
There are only four possible causes of a recession from here:
1) Corporate earnings fall. But they are, ex energy,? in fact increasing at a respectable pace.
2) Stocks become overvalued. However, 16.5X is in the middle of its historic earnings multiple range. Many of the largest firms are trading at big market discounts. Apple (AAPL) is the prime example. It is the most widely owned stock in the world, and sells at a very modest 11X current cash earnings.
During the 2000 dotcom bubble top, Apple sold for 34X earnings (which today would value the company at a staggering $2.3 trillion, or 14% of US GDP!).
3) A hostile Federal Reserve would certainly take the punch bowl away. With deflation running amok globally, it is unlikely that the Fed moves until later this year. When they do, the action will be modest.
4) A geopolitical crisis would certainly throw a spanner in the works. These are unforecastable, and all the current ones (ISIS, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, and the Ukraine) are inconsequential.
Cooperman observes that bear markets don?t arise from an immaculate conception, but a visible turn in the economic data flow. Given that, of the hundreds of data points Leon tracks on a weekly or months basis, not a single one is pointing towards recession.
That said, he cautions that the market historically peaks an average of seven months before every recession. Stock markets also rise an average of 30 months after the first Fed rate hike, taking in a typical 9.5% in the first year, which brings us to his two year upside target.
Don?t get too excited. The high returns of recent past years are now firmly in the year view mirror. The years ahead are more likely to bring a couple of yards forward and a cloud of dust, much like we witnessed in 2015.
Leon is urging his clients to take the most negative stance possible regarding their bond holdings. That means shortening duration (maturities), and moving up the credit curve. Shorter and safer is the way to go.
Avoid junk bonds like the plague, which are among the most overvalued in history.
A 2% GDP growth rate and a 2% inflation rate should give us a 4% yield on ten year Treasury bonds, not the lowly 1.89% we see on our screens today.
Look out below!
Cooperman is one of the few individuals I drop everything to listen to. He spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs (GS), eventually rising to the head of research.
He took off to start his own hedge fund in 1991, Omega Advisors, the same year I did, and became an early investor in my own fund. His returns have since been stellar, and Leon is regularly ranked as one of the top ten investment strategists in the country.
Ignore Leon at your peril.
Before we parted, Leon have me his short list of favorite stocks to own, many of which you already know and love from reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. They include Google (GOOG), (GM), Citibank (C), (PCLN), (AER).
As a ringer, he also threw in (GULTU:US on NASDAQ), a high yield royalty trade spun off by none other than Freeport McMoRan (FCX), one of my biggest earnings last year.
With that, I thanked Leon for his always sage and prescient advice, and promised to revisit these issues with him in New York next month.



?If you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels,? said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.

Global Market Comments
April 22, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB),
(TAKE A RIDE IN THE SHORT JUNK ETF),
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG),
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
?
When you look at the profusion of new ETF?s being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops.
The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders pay for it. The resulting returns for investors are disastrous.
But occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, and if you fire buckshot long enough, you hit a barn.
That?s why I am getting interested in the ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). After riding the bull move in junk all the way up with (JNK), (HYG), I have recently turned negative on the sector.
Junk bonds have moved too far too fast. Current spreads for junk paper are now only 200 basis points over equivalent term Treasury bonds, and investors at these levels are in no way being compensated for their risk.
If the stock market starts to roll over this summer, then the junk bond market will follow it in the elevator going down to the ladies underwear department in the basement.
Keep in mind that when shorting the junk market, you run into the same problem you have with the (TBT), a leveraged short ETF for the Treasury bond market.
Buy the (SJB) and you are short a 6.74% coupon, which works out to a monthly costs of more than 50 basis points. That is a big nut to cover. So timing for entry into this fund will be crucial.


Is Shorting Junk Bonds the Way to Go??
Global Market Comments
April 21, 2016
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL SPACE X ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(WILL SPACE X BE YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER?)
? (TSLA), (SCTY), (BA), (LMT)
TESTIMONIAL
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
The Boeing Company (BA)
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Global Market Comments
April 20, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUY FLOOD INSURANCE WITH THE VIX),
?(VIX), (VXX), (UVXY),
(THE SOLAR MISSING LINK IS HERE!),
(SCTY), (FSLR), (SPWR), (TSLA)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)


Ready for a Repeat? 





