
I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I responded ?yes,? and instructions followed to meet him at the private jet terminal at San Francisco on August 22.
Half a globe and nine time zones later found me shaking hands with the nation?s 76th Treasury Secretary. The man is maybe 5?8? and squinted at me through wire frame glasses as he gave me a firm handshake. He wore the standard DC uniform, a dark solid suit with a white shirt, which I always thought made everyone look like undertakers.
?You can ride with me to my next event,? he said, inviting me into a spanking new tan GM Suburban with tinted windows. I thought ?Why not GM?? After all, until very recently the government owned a third of the troubled company. After the 1980 Chrysler bailout, that firm provided government rides for decades.
We then took off, escorted by a second Suburban packed with Secret Service agents and bracketed by two California Highway Patrol cars with red lights flashing, racing down Highway 101 at 80 miles an hour. ?Where are we going,? I wondered. ?Google, Apple, or Facebook??
Lew is the first Treasury Secretary appointed in many years who I did not already know. I dated back to the eighties with Tim Geithner in my Tokyo days after he read my books on Japan. Of course, I was long familiar with Hank Paulson from his time with Goldman Sachs, when I was first a competitor, and later a hedge fund client. So my goal today was to try to get the measure of Lew and figure out who he really was.
Lew told me that he was taking over a ship far more seaworthy than the one Geithner inherited four years ago. GDP has bounced back from a negative 5% to a 2% annual rate. Job growth rebounded from 700,000 losses to 200,000 gains a month. Automobile production returned from the grave, soaring from 9 million to 16 million annual units.
Taxes have been lowered for 98% of taxpayers, and major reform has been carried out in financial services, health care, and education. These gains have been made, despite a fiscal drag created by congress that is slowing the economy by 1% this year.
There was still plenty of work to do on jobs, a task made more difficult by the fact that the Republicans have opposed every jobs bill of the past four years. That is why boosting exports has been a top administration priority. The offshoring trend has slowed, and may even be reversing. Fixing our broken immigration system and getting college costs under control are also important.
Yes, it was all the standard Obama party line. But as this was our first meeting, I couldn?t expect a lot of confidences. Lew lacked the intellectual muscle of his predecessor, Geithner, who could discuss the most obscure parts of the financial history of the world with amazing depth. Lew struck as more of a technocrat with impressive experience in the day to day management of government institutions.
I asked Lew why he was known as the ?father of sequestration,? which has drained $85 billion out of the economy this year. He said the plan was a worst-case scenario that was never intended to be implemented. ?Who would have thought the Gang of Six wouldn?t get anywhere on this?? he asked.
Lew then went on to hint that an equally punitive Sequester II might be on the way in the wake of the next debt ceiling deadline in December. The Republicans are using the credit rating of the United States as a political lever, and the economy will suffer as a result.
Business and consumer confidence suffered a body blow during the last debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, and a jittery stock market plunged 25%. Lew confessed that he didn?t know how long cash on hand will last, and that social security checks, Medicare reimbursements, and payments to veterans may have to be halted.
I asked why the administration had declared war on the banking system. He opined that 2008 was a failure of regulation and oversight. The financial system should be big and healthy enough to finance every good idea and provide loans to all credit worthy homebuyers. A strong and vibrant financial system was important for the US and the world.
But risks for taxpayers must be reduced, which is the goal of Dodd Frank. Only 40% of the mandated rules have been drafted, and 60% of the deadlines have been missed, thanks to the overwhelming complexity of the task. International cooperation is needed to prevent business from flowing to the weakest regulator.
It was the day of the NASDAQ failure, and our conversation was interrupted by urgent calls from Washington several times. First there was SEC head, Mary Jo White, and then NASDAQ, Chief Robert Greifeld. When president Obama called for an update, the Treasury Secretary pulled out an armored and heavily encrypted cell phone and spoke in murmured tones. All I could make out during his calm and matter-of-fact explanation was ?server down? and ?no back up?.
The subject of China came up, and Lew confided that he had already met with president Xi Jinping several times. It was clear that the Middle Kingdom had over invested in manufacturing, creating a dangerous level of excess capacity. ?They agree with our recommendations,? he said with some surprise. I said I noticed that too. The real problem was in the execution, getting anything done in an emerging economy of 1.2 billion.
I cautioned the Treasury Secretary not to repeat the same mistake Geithner made in his early days and brand China a ?currency manipulator,? even if it was true. You don?t want to do that to someone who is holding $1 trillion of our debt, and until recently accounted for the purchase of half of all new Treasury issues.
We covered a broad range of other international financial issues, which I can?t discuss here for national security reasons. I hope I don?t read about them on Wikileaks someday.
A native of New York City, Lew did his undergrad at Harvard and his law degree at Georgetown. On graduation, he moved down the street and went straight into politics, where he worked for house majority leader, Tip O?Neill. He held several senior government posts during the Clinton administration. His wilderness years during the Bush administration were spent at New York University, and as the chief operating officer of Citicorp (C).
When president Obama took charge, Lew returned as an assistant Secretary of State, then Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and eventually to White House Chief of Staff. He is said to know more about the American budgeting process than any man alive, a talent that will prove useful in his current incarnation.
I couldn?t help but inquire about his pick for Ben Bernanke?s replacement, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Somewhat irritated, he shot back, ?I will keep my advice in the Oval Office where it belongs.?
I finally pulled out what seasoned journalists call their ?throw away? question, the one, if asked, is so annoying that it gets you thrown out of the room, or in this case, left by the side of the freeway. ?Why a lawyer as Treasury Secretary? Wouldn?t someone with a more substantial economic background be better suited to the task??
He smiled when he answered that our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was also a lawyer (click here for my in-depth piece on him in ?The Two Century Dollar Short?). Several men have recently held the post that came from industry or other professions.
In that case, I cautioned him not to befall the fate of Hamilton, who was shot in a duel by vice presidential candidate, Aaron Burr, on a New Jersey shore.
Just then, our procession pulled up to the Computer History Museum where Lew had to deliver a speech. I said he knew my email address and could call any time. We shook hands, and he breezed past an onslaught of TV cameras. I stopped to offer some comments.
?Is he smart? one reporter asked? I replied ?They?re all smart. The United States has an incredible breadth of smart people. That?s why we are the most dominant country in history.?
I called a taxi to retrieve my car back at the airport. In the meantime, I strolled around this really cool museum, far and away the best of its kind in the world. It displayed a Babbage calculating engine, a WWII German ?Ultra? decoding machine, and Steve Wozniak?s first Apple I, which was built in a wooden case. I even saw the wooden slide rule with which I worked my way through college. ?Yikes,? I thought, I?m becoming an antique myself.
That night, I went home, donned my orange hazmat suit, and caught up on the new season of ?Breaking Bad.?
Global Market Comments
May 12, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTAEND THE ORLANDO FLORIDA SATURDAY, MAY 17 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW?)
(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (LINE), (ELD),
(QQQ), (UUP), (EEM), (DBA)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Global Market Comments
May 9, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 17 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER),
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)
Come join Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, June 17, 2014. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $248.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
Global Market Comments
May 8, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 25 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(A SPECIAL OFFER FOR AUSTRALIAN SUBSCRIBERS),
(HOW TO TRADE CALL SPREADS IN AUSTRALIA),
(WILL THE ABIBABA IPO BLOW UP THE MARKET?)
(YHOO), (SFTBY), (MSFT), (AMZN), (EBAY)
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
eBay Inc. (EBAY)
Executing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s?Trade Alerts?from the other side of the world can pose some annoying challenges. After speaking with many of my Australian followers on my recent trip down under, I learned of the obstacles presented by distant time zones, dealing in foreign currencies, regulations, and obtaining live customer support.
I want to make my service easy as possible for everyone to follow. Execution of my?Trade Alerts?should never be an issue. The?Mad Hedge Fund Trader?has therefore tied up with?Halifax Investment Services Limited, an established local broker, to provide support and execution services for my Australian followers.
Halifax?possesses an Australian Financial Services (AFS) License from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission to provide brokerage and custody services. It is a member of the Australian Stock Exchange. It has a relationship with the American firm, Interactive Brokers, which gives it access to state of the art online executive at competitive commissions.
Halifax?can open trading accounts, Self-managed superannuation funds, or any other type of account. It also offers a wealth of educational resources you can use to improve your own trading performance.
If you open a brokerage account with?Halifax?they will provide the following for you:
1) Custody of your Australian dollar funds in a safe, segregated account.
2) Personal customer support from a professional financial advisor in your time zone who will explain the fundamentals, the logic, and the risks involved in every?Mad Hedge Fund Trader Trade Alert.?They will invest the time and energy to make sure you can execute these trades online on your own.
3) The ability to hedge out foreign currency risks in your trading.
4)?Halifax?can execute the full range of trades recommended by the?Mad Hedge Fund Trader?with the greatest of ease. These include stocks, bonds, commodities, foreign currencies, precious metals, exchange traded funds (ETF?s), options, and option call and put spreads.
Halifax?is a well-capitalized firm. It does not engage in any trading for its own account. It is the subject of regular audits by its regulator. All cash accounts are insured in value up to AUS$250,000. In other words, it is a financial institution where you can place you life savings and sleep well at night.
To avail yourselves of these services, please open an account with?Halifax Investment Services Ltd. contact Matthew Brown,?financial advisor who has been assigned to provide you assistance (Ph 7 5585 4200/email: brown@halifaxonline.com.au).? Matthew has been in the industry since 1998 and in particular has been involved in the US markets for the last 10 years. He runs the US trading desk for the Queensland office.
Good Luck and good trading!
Did You Say ?Buy? or ?Sell??
There are two types of trading accounts permitted by Australian financial regulators:
Cash Accounts ? opened by individuals
Regulation ?T? accounts -? opened by corporations and trusts
Reg ?T? accounts have no problems executing any of my Trade Alerts, including those for stocks, bonds, exchange trade funds, options, call spreads, and put spreads. However, regulators have recently barred Cash Accounts from trading in call spreads and put spreads.
Their logic is that individuals lack the financial sophistication to engage in these types of trades. The reality is the opposite, they are limiting individuals to engage in higher risk positions while banning them from the lower risk ones. Welcome to the world of financial regulation!
The easy way around this is for individuals to set up a paper corporation for the purpose of handling their trading activities. This is far easier than it first appears. My friends at Halifax Investment Services will do this for you for as little at AUS$575. One swipe of your credit card and you are in business.
The benefits of doing this are huge. You can then execute every type of trade under the sun, including all of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alerts. You can also reduce your tax rate from as high as 47% that hits profits in Cash Accounts to only a mere 30%. I don?t know how people in the Land Down Under view taxation, but here in the US it is absolutely despised.
Every professional trader in Australia operates through a corporate entity, and you would be mad not to do so. If the past is any guide, long-term followers of my service all have one problem in common: they make too much money, creating unforeseen tax headaches.
There is one other way to deal with the Australian regulator?s discrimination against individual investors: wait a couple months. They have been sued by a number of individuals and organizations seeking to block this double standard. My in country tax attorneys tell me that a resolution is expected soon. Once the issue is settled, the only difference between Reg T and Cash Accounts will be the tax rate.
To avail yourselves of these services, please open an account with Halifax Investment Services Ltd. by clicking here at http://madhedgefundradio.com/hisl-australia/. There, you will be asked to complete a form with your basic information. Within a few days, you should receive a phone call from a Halifax financial advisor who has been assigned to provide you assistance.
Good Luck and good trading!
Did You Say Only a 30% Tax Rate?
Global Market Comments
May 7, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHICAGO FRIDAY, MAY 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE NEW COLD WAR),
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
My friend, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group, a global risk analyst who I regularly follow, has published an outstanding book entitled The End of the Free Markets: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations. I find this highly depressing, as it takes me as long to read one of Ian?s books as it takes him to write another one. To read a review of his highly insightful tome published in 2008, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing, please click here. The world is reaching a tipping point. For the past 40 years, global multinationals with unfettered access to capital, consumer, and labor markets have driven the world economy. There is now a new competitor on the scene, the ?state capitalist,? where political considerations trump economic ones in the allocation of resources. Of course, China is the main player, joined by several other emerging nations. The Middle Kingdom has posted double-digit annual growth for the past 30 years without freedom of speech, economic rules of the road, and independent judiciary, and credible property rights. China?s leadership is clearly worried that Western style freedoms will enable wealth to be generated outside their control and be used to orchestrate their overthrow. Private Western companies can only engage in transactions, which stand on their own economically and deliver the short-term profits, which their shareholders demand. In China, long-term political goals enable them to pay through the nose to obtain stable supplies of oil, gas, minerals, and materials. That keeps the country?s massive work force employed, off the streets, and politically neutered. The bottom line is that there are now two competing forms of capitalism. The recent financial crisis has accelerated their entrance to the global stage, moving us from a G7 to a G20 dominated world. Globalization is not ending, but it is definitely entering a new chapter. For those of us who read tea leaves to ascertain major, market moving economic trends, this will be a must read. To buy the book at Amazon, please click here.
Global Market Comments
May 6, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE
Featured Trade:
(LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY MAY 14 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON)
(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)