Today, many followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert service have up to eight November option spreads expiring at their maximum potential profit.
My strategy of taking advantage of the short November expiration calendar and betting that the markets stay in narrow ranges turned out to be wildly successful. At this stage I am batting eight for eight. If these all work, then I will have issued 15 consecutive profitable Trade Alerts since October, something most hedge fund managers would die for at this time of the year.
I have already taken profits on five of my November positions, but judging from the email traffic, many of you are hanging on to the bitter end and have asked me how to handle these.
It?s really easy. You don?t have to do anything. Nada, Squat.
Trading in the underlying ceases today, Friday, November 15 at 4:00 PM EST. The contracts legally expire on Saturday night, November 16. The cash profit is then credited to your account on Monday, November 18, the margin freed up, and the position disappears into thin air.
Only the (SPY) November 2013 $180-$183 bear put spread is giving us a run for our money. As I write this, the (SPY) is trading at$179.27, and we are a mere 73 cents in the money on the $180 puts that we are short.
If the (SPY) closes on Friday over $180, then you will be short 100 shares for every contract of the November $180 puts that you are short. Your long position in the November, $183 puts expired on Friday, so you will be naked short. This is not a position you want to have.
It is always best to cover this at the opening on Monday morning to limit your losses and keep your risk from running away. You may also not have sufficient margin to run a naked short, so If you don?t liquidate, your broker will, probably at a worse price.
Don?t try to trade a leveraged short (SPY) position in a bull market. It?s probably beyond your pay grade, and I doubt you?ll sleep at night.
I?m betting that the (SPY) will close on Friday below $180, so I am hanging on to my position. With only one single day to expiration, it is a coin toss what will happen. But with the markets this sluggish, if I am wrong, it will only be by pennies. Quite honestly, being up 56% on the year I don?t mind taking a gamble here.
I know all of this sounds very complicated to the beginners among you. Don?t worry, this all becomes second nature after you?ve done the first few thousand of these.
If you have any doubts, call your broker and they will tell you what to do, especially the part about you needing to do a thousand more trades.? Here, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Then it?s on to the next trade.
In the meantime, take your winnings and plan your winter Caribbean holiday with your significant other. Or plan a ski vacation at Incline Village in Nevada. They?ve already had two nice dumps of snow. If you do, drop me a line and I?ll take you out for coffee at Starbucks.
Well done, traders!
Well Done Traders!
Global Market Comments
November 14, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LOADING UP ON THE FINANCIALS),
(C), (BAC), (JPM), (MS), (XLF)
(THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES)
Citigroup, Inc. (C)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Global Market Comments
November 13, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DOUBLING UP ON MY YEN SHORTS),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (UUP),
(SAN FRANCISCO?S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT),
(WHERE THE ECONOMIST ?BIG MAC? INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE),
(MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB)
(TESTIMONIAL)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Global Market Comments
November 12, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(YOU JUST CAN?T KEEP AMERICA DOWN),
(TLT), (SPY), (GLD),
(A SPECIAL NOTE ON NOVEMBER EXERCISED OPTIONS)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
There are only 4 days left until the equity option expiration on November 15. My short dated November expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all nine of these trades quickly turning profitable. Including the six positions we now have on board, the last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, raising the success rate of our service to a stunning 85%.
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trade portfolio has three remaining positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit.
I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go.
The options traded on US exchanges and referred to in my Trade Alerts are American style, meaning that they can be exercised at any time by the owner. This is in contrast to European style options, which can only be exercised on the expiration day.
The call option spreads that I have been recommending for the past year are composed of a deep out-of-the-money long strike price plus a short portion at a near money strike price.
When stocks have high dividends, there is a chance that the near money option you are short gets exercised against you by the owner. This requires you to deliver the stock equivalent of the option you are short, plus any quarterly dividends that are due. Don?t worry, because your long position perfectly hedges you against this possibility.
You usually get notice of this assignment in an email after the close. You then need to email or call your broker back immediately informing him that you want to exercise your remaining long option position to meet your assigned short position.
This is a gift, as it means that you can realize the entire maximum theoretical profit of the position without having to take the risk of running it all the way into expiration. You can either keep the cash, or pile on another short dated option spread position and make even more money.
This should completely close out your position and leave you with a nice profit. This is not an automatic process and requires action on your part!
Assignments are made on a random basis by an exchange computer, and can happen any day. Exercise means the owner of the option that you are short completely loses all of the premium on his call.
Dividends have to be pretty high to make such a move economic, usually at least over 3% on an annual rate. But these days, markets are so efficient that traders, or their machines, will exercise options for a single penny profit.
Surprise assignments create a risk for option spread owners in a couple of ways. If you don?t check your email every day after the close, you might not be aware that you have been assigned. Alternatively, such emails sometimes get lost, or hung up in local servers or spam filters, which occasionally happens to readers of my own letter.
Then, you are left with the long side deep out-of-the-money call alone, which will have a substantially higher margin requirement. This is equivalent to going outright long the stock in large size.
This is a totally unhedged position now, and suddenly, you are playing a totally different game. If the stock then rises, you could be in for a windfall profit. But if it falls, you could take a big hit. Better to completely avoid this situation at all cost and not take the chance. You are probably not set up to do this type of trading.
If you don?t have the cash in your account to cover this, you could get a margin call. If you ignore this call as well, your broker will close out your position at market without your permission.
It could produce some disconcerting communications from your broker. They generally hate issuing margin calls, and could well close your account if it is too small to bother with, as they create regulatory issues.
In order to get belt and braces coverage on this issue, it is best to call your broker and find out exactly what are their assignment policies and procedures. Believe it or not, some are still in the Stone Age, and have yet to automate the assignment process or give notice by email. An ounce of prevention could be worth a pound of cure here. You can?t believe how irresponsible some of these people can be.
Consider all this a cost of doing business, or a frictional execution cost. In-the-money options are still a great strategy. But you should be aware of all the ins and outs to get the most benefit.
John Thomas
Global Market Comments
November 11, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2013 PERFORMANCE TOPS 51%),
(TLT), (TBT), (AAPL), (XLI), (IWM), (SPY)
(TESTIMONIAL),
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a new all time high in performance, taking in 46.05% so far in 2013. The three-year return is an eye popping 101.7%, taking the averaged annualized return to 35%. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 19%.
This has been the profit since the groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched 35 months ago. These numbers place me at the absolute apex of all hedge fund managers, where the year to date gains have been a far more pedestrian 3%.
These numbers come off the back of a blistering week in the market where I added 5% in value to my model-trading portfolio. I called the top in the bond market on Monday, shorted the Treasury bond ETF (TLT), and bought the short Treasury ETF (TBT). Prices then collapsed, taking the ten-year Treasury bond yield from 2.47% to 2.63%.
I then pegged the top of the Euro (FXE) against the dollar, betting that the European Central Bank would have to cut interest rates to head off another recession. Since then, the beleaguered continental currency has plunged from $1.3700 to $1.3350 to the buck.
I then bet that the stock market would enter another tedious sideways correction going into the Thanksgiving holidays. I bought an in the money put spread on the S&P 500, and then bracketed the index through buying an in the money call spread.
Carving out the 2013 trades alone, 57 out of 71 have made money, a success rate of 80%. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.
This performance was only made possible by correctly calling the near term direction of stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, energy, precious metals and the agricultural products. It all sounds easy, until you try it.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. He caught a spike up in the volatility index (VIX) by both lapels. He also was a major player on the short side in bonds.
The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars, order?Global Trading Dispatch PRO?adds Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? or "Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO" box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
Mad Day Trader Jim Parker
Global Market Comments
November 8, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE RISING RISK OF A MARKET MELT UP)
(FXE), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), (SPY), (USO),
(THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Global Market Comments
November 7, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SELLING THE YEN, AGAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),
(ENJOY THE DOLLAR RALLY WHILE IT LASTS),
(FXA), (FXC), (BNZ), (CYB), (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)
WisdomTree Dreyfus New Zealand Dollar (BNZ)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down.
Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten-dollar bill out of your wallet and you?re looking at a picture of a world class horndog, a swordsman of the first order. When he wasn?t fighting libelous accusations in the press and the courts, he spent much of his six years in office orchestrating a rescue of our new currency, the US dollar.
Winning the Revolutionary War bankrupted the young United States, draining it of resources and leaving it with huge debts. Hamilton settled many of these by giving creditors notes exchangeable for then worthless Indian land west of the Appalachians.
As soon as the ink was dry on these promissory notes, they traded in the secondary market for as low as 25% of face value, beginning a century?s long government tradition of stiffing its lenders, a practice that continues to this day. ?My unfortunate ancestors took him up on his offer, the end result being that I am now writing this letter to you from California?and am part Indian.
It all ended in tears for Hamilton, who, misjudging former Vice President Aaron Burr?s intentions in a New Jersey duel, ended up with a bullet in his back that severed his spinal cord.
Since Bloomberg machines weren?t around in 1790, we have to rely on alternative valuation measures for the dollar then, like purchasing power parity, and the value of goods priced in gold. A chart of this data shows an undeniable permanent downtrend, which greatly accelerates after 1933 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt took the US off the gold standard, banned private ownership of the barbarous relic, and devalued the dollar. Gold bugs have despised him ever since.
Today, going short the currency of the world?s largest borrower, running the greatest trade and current account deficits in history, with a diminishing long term growth rate is a no brainer. But once it became every hedge fund trader?s free lunch, and positions became so lopsided against the buck, a reversal was inevitable. We seem to be solidly in one of those periodic corrections, which began two weeks ago month ago, and could continue for months, or even years.
The euro has its own particular problems, with the cost of a generous social safety net sending EC budget deficits careening. Use this strength in the greenback to scale into core long positions in the currencies of countries that are major commodity exporters, boast rising trade and current account surpluses, and possess small consuming populations.
I?m talking about the Canadian dollar (FXC), the Australian dollar (FXA), and the New Zealand dollar (BNZ), all of which will eventually hit parity with the greenback. Think of these as emerging markets where they speak English, best played through the local currencies.
For a sleeper, buy the Chinese Yuan ETF (CYB) for your bank book. A major revaluation by the Middle Kingdom is just a matter of time.
I?m sure that if Alexander Hamilton were alive today, he would counsel our modern Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, to talk the dollar up, but to do everything he could to undermine the buck behind the scenes, thus over time depreciating our national debt down to nothing through a stealth devaluation. (Click here for my interview with him, ?Riding with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.)
Given Lew?s performance so far, I?d say he studied his history well.
Hamilton must be smiling from the grave.