With the (SPY) approaching an all time high, there are just a few pennies to go, I am going to take the money and run on my position in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) April, 2013 $145-$150 deep in-the-money bull call spread. At $4.97, there is only 3 cents left in potential profit, and I would have to run the position for another month to get it. We have already captured 93% of the potential profit in this position. The risk/reward here is no longer attractive.
The market is now up ten days in a row, the most since 1996, and has gained every day in March. Will it shoot for 11? It looks like it. By freeing up cash here we gain some dry powder to use on any market dips. That is, if they haven?t made selling stocks illegal, which the market apparently thinks they have. It also means you don?t have to rush out and change your underwear every five minutes if one of my predicted black swans comes in for a landing.
There is also the matter of being up 31% so far this year, I have outperformed virtually everyone in the hedge fund industry, except for maybe David Tepper (Thanks for the heads up, David!). With this trade, I have closed out 15 consecutive profitable trades. I have another six moneymakers still on the books, taking my own hot streak up to 21. The only trade I have lost money on during 2013 is with Apple (AAPL).
That means I no longer need to swing for the fences to make my year. Instead, I can settle back into the sort of ultra cautious, scaredy cat, type of trades typical for an investor of my advanced age. That is, unless, we get a 5% dip in the market, in which case, it will be pedal to the metal once again.
That?s My Kind of Trade!
When I visited the local Safeway over the weekend, I was snared by some uniformed pre-teens, backed by beaming mothers behind a card table selling Girl Scout cookies. I was a pushover. I walked away with a bag of Thin Mints, Lemon Chalet Creams, Do-Si-Dos, and Tagalongs.
I have to confess a lifetime addiction to Girl Scout cookies. During the early eighties, one of the managing directors at Morgan Stanley's equity trading desk had a daughter in this ubiquitous youth organization. One day, she pitched to all 200 traders on the floor, going from desk to desk with sheets of paper taking orders. I used to buy two of everything she offered, as some clients preferred a few boxes of these delectable treats over lunch at the Four Seasons any day. Other's ordered hundreds. I later heard that the girl was the top performing scout in the greater New York area two years running.
But this year, when I got home and opened the boxes I was shocked. While the price was the same, the number of cookies had shrunk considerably. I knew it was not my waist line the scouts were concerned about. I was seeing the dastardly hand of 'stealth inflation' at work. In this deflationary environment, companies loathe to raise prices. Food companies are especially hard hit, with many commodities like wheat, corn, sugar, soybeans, and coffee up 50%-300% in a year. Any attempt to pass these costs on to consumers is punished severely. So companies cut costs, quantity, and quality, instead, by shrinking the size.
I think you are seeing stealth inflation breaking out everywhere. It is not just in food. Many products seem to be undergoing a miniaturization process while prices remain unchanged. It also extends to services, where a dollar buys you less and less. This is how the consumer prices index is staying in low single digits, despite anecdotal evidence everywhere to the contrary.
Meet the Ugly Face of Stealth Inflation
Global Market Comments
March 14, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE),
(THE ELTON JOHN MARKET), (SPY),
(RAMPANT WAGE INFLATION STRIKES CHINA), (FXI), (CYB)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheons, which I will be conducting throughout the US and Europe over the next five months. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets will vary according to each city, depending on local costs, but will be around $200 per person.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. You never know who is going t show up for these events, and I always manage to learn something new. I find the discussions and debate with my guests incredibly productive.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. You find the current schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
April 12 San Francisco
April 19 Chicago
July 2 New York
July 8 London, England
July 12 Amsterdam, Neth.
July 16 Berlin, Germany
July 18 Frankfurt, Germany
July 25 Portofino, Italy
August 1 Mykonos, Greece
August 9 Zermatt, Switzerland
I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming.
Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end of the spectrum, where migrant workers from the provinces are earning up to 40% more than a year ago. Wage settlements of 20% or more for trained workers are common. One factory that gave staff only a 10% increase saw many of them fail to return after the recent Chinese lunar New Year.
Of course China's blistering 8% GDP growth is to cause, which has pushed inflation well beyond the government's 4% target. So the cost of living in the Middle Kingdom is rising dramatically. The problem has been particularly severe with imported commodities, such as in food. Hence, the increased demands.
This is important for the rest of us because low wages have been the cornerstone of the Chinese economic miracle. In just the last decade, average monthly Chinese wages have climbed from the bottom rung to the middle tier. That seriously erodes the country's cost advantage, which has gained such enormous shares in foreign markets, like the US. Take away the country's price advantages, and demand will wither, slowing growth globally.
What will they be demanding next? Collective bargaining rights? In the meantime, keep checking those Craig's List entries for Shanghai.
Average Monthly Salary
$3,099 Yokohama, Japan
$1,220 Seoul, South Korea
$888 Taipei, Taiwan
$235 Shenzhen, China
$148 Jakarta, Indonesia
$100 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
$47 Dhaka, Bangla Desh
$1.25 an Hour? You Must Be Joking!
Global Market Comments
March 13, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(BLACK SWANS ARE CIRCLING), (SPX),
(A COW BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)
S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $189.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows.
You give one to your neighbor.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and gives you some milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and sells you some milk.
NAZISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the
milk away.
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull.
Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of
credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a
debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all
four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company. The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.
You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States , leaving you with nine cows.
No balance sheet provided with the release.
The public then buys your bull.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you
want three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you.
You charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity.
You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows.
You tell them that you have none.
No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your
country.
You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Business seems pretty good.
You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows.
The one on the left looks very attractive.
Global Market Comments
March 12, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADE ALERT SERVICE ROCKETS TO 30% GAIN IN 2013),
(SPY), (IWM), (F), (AIG), (FCX), (FXY), (YCS),
?(FXB), (FXE), (EUO), (VIX)
(LOAD THE BOAT WITH THE CHINESE YUAN), (CYB),
(HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP),
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
VOLATILITYS&P500 (VIX)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 30.64% profit year to date, taking it to another new all time high. The 27-month total return has punched through to an awesome 86%, compared to a miserable 10% return for the Dow average during the same period. That raises the average annualized return for the service to 38%, elevating it to the pinnacle of hedge fund ranks.
My bet that the stock markets would continue to grind up to new all time highs in the face of complete disbelief has paid off big time, as I continued to run sizeable long positions in the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (IWM). A hefty weighting in Ford Motors (F) has driven me to impressive profitability.
My substantial short volatility positions are contributing to profits daily, with the closely watched (VIX) Index plummeting to a new five year low at 11.5%. I booked nice profits from holdings in American International Group (AIG) and copper producer, Freeport McMoRan (FCX). I also prudently doubled up my short positions in the Japanese yen for the third time this year.
It has truly been a month where everything is working. Even my short positions in deep out-of-the-money calls on the (SPY) contributed to my P&L. While the (SPY) has been going up like clockwork, it has not appreciated fast enough to hurt the position.
Trade Alerts that I wrote up, but never sent, worked. That's because I have been 100% invested for the entire year in long stock/short positions. However, followers of my biweekly strategy webinars caught my drift and benefited from the thinking, and many did these trades on their own. These included shorts in the Treasury bond market, (TLT), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), and the British pound (FXB).
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't do. I have been able to dodge the bullets that have been killing off other hedge funds, including those in gold (GLD), oil (USO), and commodities (CORN), (CU).
All told, the last 20 consecutive recommendations of the Trade Alert Service have been profitable. I have six trades to go to beat this record. Watch this space.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service, daily newsletter, real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars. To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the "Global Trading Dispatch" box on the right, and click on the lime green "SUBSCRIBE NOW" button.
Nice Long!
Nice Short!