Market Comments for March 12, 2008
1) The Fed action yesterday is like a cortisone shot for a sick patient. It gives immediate relief, but doesn't cure the disease. Financial problems won't end until house prices stop going down and eroding bank capital. But the Fed has injected $1 trillion in liquidity since December and by next week will have lowered interest rates 3%. They are pouring a lot of gasoline around hoping that someone will eventually strike a match.
2) Call buying in Sallie Mae increased ten times yesterday. The stock has fallen from $60 to $16 and is now a screaming buy. Unlike Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac you cannot discharge student loan obligations through bankruptcy. They carry a call on your future earnings for your entire life until they are paid off.
3) The CEO of Freddie Mac said that we are in the worst housing crisis in 100 years. He said that we are only 1/3 of the way through the down move in house prices.
4) Commercial real estate transactions declined by 68% in January YOY. But this represents just a backing off of the record $470 billion in total transactions in 2007. The industry is in far better position to enter this recession than in past recessions. Occupancy rates are higher, the quality of properties is better, and lease terms are longer. There is less unused capacity, less overbuilding, far greater institutional participation, and plenty of vulture money from outside the industry waiting on the sidelines to swoop in and buy distressed properties (Warren Buffet, sovereign funds, hedge funds, etc.). One new and worrying problem is the record level of spreads of commercial mortgage backed securities over Treasuries, which will inevitably raise the cost of capital for investors, despite the Fed rate cuts.
5) The media is having a feeding frenzy over Spitzer. The tabloids are offering $1 million to 'Kristen' to come forward for an interview. Papers are scouring East coast model agencies looking for the 5'5' petite brunette. ??Who were 'Clients 1-8'? Were they republicans? It wasn?t me! Watching the coverage of?? Spitzer's motorcade to the resignation speech on TV was reminiscent of the OJ arrest. That's what happens when you live in a glass house and throw rocks. Couldn?t happen to a nicer guy.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
My suggestion to short the 2-10 year Treasury spread at 260 points last week came in big time today. The spread collapsed to 220 basis points. The profit on the trade would have been 4% in 5 days, or $120,000 on $3 million in capital, which is huge for an almost riskless trade. Normally you have to wait six months to make this kind of profit on a spread trade.
Market Comments for March 11, 2008
1) The Fed announced that they would accept $200 billion in triple A mortgage backed securities which is one quarter of its entire balance sheet. This was absolutely the right thing for the Fed to do. Apparently the market thinks so too, with the Dow up 417 points, the largest up day in 5 days. Banks were the leading sector, up 5-10% across the board, with WAMU (WM) up 25% in one day.
2) Crude hit $109.80 overnight, and Natural Gas $10.10. It then plummeted to $106 on the Fed announcement, telling you what the real driver of the market?? is. The Euro backed off from $1.55 to $1.53. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast of global energy consumption for the second time this year due to an impending US recession.
3) Citibank (C) announced that it was putting in $1 billion to bail out six of its in house muni bond hedge funds. These funds typically used leverage of 30-40 times and were asking for trouble.
4) China announced that its inflation rate jumped to 8.7%, an 11 year high. This is eventually going to hit us.
5) Over the last 25 years stocks have dropped an average of 34% during a bear market. At the Monday lows the average stock was down 31%.
6) The new issue market for muni bonds has been closed for 4 months now and an enormous backlog has developed. In the secondary market 'AAA' paper is now yielding 6% which implies a taxable 10 year yield of 9% versus 3.4% for ten year Treasuries. This shows how far out of whack prices are getting. Some clever investors and hedge funds are now buying munis even though they have no use for the tax free interest income because they expect imminent large capital gains when the market recovers.
7) Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises announced a record loss. The stock has dropped from $80 to $6 and is now back up to $9. It is a strong buy here.
Market Comments for March 11, 2008
1) The Fed announced that they would accept $200 billion in triple A mortgage backed securities which is one quarter of its entire balance sheet. This was absolutely the right thing for the Fed to do. Apparently the market thinks so too, with the Dow up 417 points, the largest up day in 5 days. Banks were the leading sector, up 5-10% across the board, with WAMU (WM) up 25% in one day.
2) Crude hit $109.80 overnight, and Natural Gas $10.10. It then plummeted to $106 on the Fed announcement, telling you what the real driver of the market?? is. The Euro backed off from $1.55 to $1.53. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast of global energy consumption for the second time this year due to an impending US recession.
3) Citibank (C) announced that it was putting in $1 billion to bail out six of its in house muni bond hedge funds. These funds typically used leverage of 30-40 times and were asking for trouble.
4) China announced that its inflation rate jumped to 8.7%, an 11 year high. This is eventually going to hit us.
5) Over the last 25 years stocks have dropped an average of 34% during a bear market. At the Monday lows the average stock was down 31%.
6) The new issue market for muni bonds has been closed for 4 months now and an enormous backlog has developed. In the secondary market 'AAA' paper is now yielding 6% which implies a taxable 10 year yield of 9% versus 3.4% for ten year Treasuries. This shows how far out of whack prices are getting. Some clever investors and hedge funds are now buying munis even though they have no use for the tax free interest income because they expect imminent large capital gains when the market recovers.
7) Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises announced a record loss. The stock has dropped from $80 to $6 and is now back up to $9. It is a strong buy here.
Market Comments for March 10, 2008
1) Lehman Brothers (LEH) will imminently announce a lay off of 5% of its global work force. The stock hit a new 52 week low, down 52% in a year.
2) The futures market is now discounting a 100% chance of a 75 bp Fed funds rate cut next week. I now think they will cut only 50 bp and disappoint the market. This will take the fed funds rate down to 1.75% giving you negative real interest rates of 2%.
3) The closing of the auction rate facility market has locked up the short term cash of many wealthy individuals just when April 15 tax payments are coming due, forcing them to sell other instruments , like stocks. In this environment you don't sell what you want to, you sell what you can.
4) Crude hit an intra day high of $108.20 today, and Natural Gas $10.04. Goldman Sachs (GS) put out a report saying that if we get a sudden geopolitical event like a war or a major supply disruption it could shoot up to $150-$200.
5) Bear Stearns (BSC) fell 13% on liquidity concerns and relevance concerns now that its core bond business is gone forever.
6) Of course you know all about Eliot Spitzer now, who hasn't yet resigned. Her name was Kristen and she charged $4,300 for the evening. Further proof of rising inflation.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
An opportunity will soon present itself to make a quick 10% profit. The S&P is now at 1,270. When it hits 1,225 the volatility index will rocket from 28% now to the high thirties. This will cause a hyperbolic expansion in the prices of deep out of the money puts. At this point you will be able to sell the April 1,140 puts, which expire on April 21, for $25. This S & P level is below the 2005 low. Leverage up on these three times and you will make 10% over?? 20 trading days, or a $300,000 profit on $3 million in capital. If the market then bounces, which is likely, you could realize this profit in days. These sorts of opportunities come up only once every 5-7 years.
Market Comments for March 10, 2008
1) Lehman Brothers (LEH) will imminently announce a lay off of 5% of its global work force. The stock hit a new 52 week low, down 52% in a year.
2) The futures market is now discounting a 100% chance of a 75 bp Fed funds rate cut next week. I now think they will cut only 50 bp and disappoint the market. This will take the fed funds rate down to 1.75% giving you negative real interest rates of 2%.
3) The closing of the auction rate facility market has locked up the short term cash of many wealthy individuals just when April 15 tax payments are coming due, forcing them to sell other instruments , like stocks. In this environment you don't sell what you want to, you sell what you can.
4) Crude hit an intra day high of $108.20 today, and Natural Gas $10.04. Goldman Sachs (GS) put out a report saying that if we get a sudden geopolitical event like a war or a major supply disruption it could shoot up to $150-$200.
5) Bear Stearns (BSC) fell 13% on liquidity concerns and relevance concerns now that its core bond business is gone forever.
6) Of course you know all about Eliot Spitzer now, who hasn't yet resigned. Her name was Kristen and she charged $4,300 for the evening. Further proof of rising inflation.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
An opportunity will soon present itself to make a quick 10% profit. The S&P is now at 1,270. When it hits 1,225 the volatility index will rocket from 28% now to the high thirties. This will cause a hyperbolic expansion in the prices of deep out of the money puts. At this point you will be able to sell the April 1,140 puts, which expire on April 21, for $25. This S & P level is below the 2005 low. Leverage up on these three times and you will make 10% over?? 20 trading days, or a $300,000 profit on $3 million in capital. If the market then bounces, which is likely, you could realize this profit in days. These sorts of opportunities come up only once every 5-7 years.
Market Comments for March 8, 2008
1) The non farm payroll for February came in at a truly disastrous minus?? -63,000. Most analysts had been expecting gain of 30,000. Earlier months were revised down dramatically. It is the worst payroll performance in 5 years. NASDAQ and most other stock indexes hit a new low for the year. An omen of worse to come.
2) The second richest man in the world now is Carlos Slim Helu, according to Forbes Magazine. He has the telecom monopoly for Mexico and is worth $60 billion. To make that amount of money shows you how far the third world has come and how far the US has fallen. Bill Gates lost his number one position to Warren Buffet due to the Yahoo deal.
3) The Fed announced a $100 billion term auction facility (TAF) designed to bring LIBOR interest rates in line with US market rates. This is good. Looks like the Fed will have to cut the discount rate at least another 100 bp to 1.75% in this cycle. The Fed will soon be paying you to buy stocks as this will constitute a?? negative real 1% interest rate.
4) Citibank announced that it is reducing its US mortgage lending by $45 billion this year. This is a case of closing the gate after the horses have bolted. The stock hit $21, down from $60 last June.
5) Thornburg Mortgage, the largest provide of jumbo mortgages in the country, has defaulted to several lenders. The stock has dropped 87% this week and the company has said that it may have to cease operations.
Market Comments for March 8, 2008
1) The non farm payroll for February came in at a truly disastrous minus?? -63,000. Most analysts had been expecting gain of 30,000. Earlier months were revised down dramatically. It is the worst payroll performance in 5 years. NASDAQ and most other stock indexes hit a new low for the year. An omen of worse to come.
2) The second richest man in the world now is Carlos Slim Helu, according to Forbes Magazine. He has the telecom monopoly for Mexico and is worth $60 billion. To make that amount of money shows you how far the third world has come and how far the US has fallen. Bill Gates lost his number one position to Warren Buffet due to the Yahoo deal.
3) The Fed announced a $100 billion term auction facility (TAF) designed to bring LIBOR interest rates in line with US market rates. This is good. Looks like the Fed will have to cut the discount rate at least another 100 bp to 1.75% in this cycle. The Fed will soon be paying you to buy stocks as this will constitute a?? negative real 1% interest rate.
4) Citibank announced that it is reducing its US mortgage lending by $45 billion this year. This is a case of closing the gate after the horses have bolted. The stock hit $21, down from $60 last June.
5) Thornburg Mortgage, the largest provide of jumbo mortgages in the country, has defaulted to several lenders. The stock has dropped 87% this week and the company has said that it may have to cease operations.
Market Comments for March 7, 2008
The stock market setting up for a big dump!
1) Crude made it to $106 today. The short term target is now $111. Natural gas also flew to $9.90, up 30% from my entry point of six weeks ago.
2) Carlyle Group in San Francisco failed to meet margin calls on fixed income positions this morning which could lead to more panic dumping. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!
3) Some REITs have fallen 45% from their 2007 peaks. They will get hit further when the credit crisis migrates to the commercial debt area. It is the next shoe to drop in all of this.
4) Sub prime loans constituted 7% of all home mortgages in 2007, but accounted for 42% of all foreclosures.
5) My old friend, Steve Roach at Morgan Stanley (MS), had an interesting piece in the New York Times this morning. He is now the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. When the last bubble burst, business investment collapsed, which accounted for only 13% of GDP. This time consumer spending and home building have collapsed which accounts for a combined 78% of the economy. With this much of the economy sick the bear market will be longer and deeper than anyone realizes. Morgan Stanley transferred Steve to Asia to get him away from New York where his perennially negative views depressed important clients.
6) The Swiss Franc has risen to 1.03 and will soon be at parity with the dollar.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
There is a great low risk trade setting up. The spread between two year and ten year Treasuries over the last 20 years has been +250 basis point to -250 basis point. It is now at the top end of that range. The last time it was this high was during the S & L crisis in 1992. Short the two year and go long, then ten year?? ten times on your back book and you could add another 50% return over the next three years.
Market Comments for March 7, 2008
The stock market setting up for a big dump!
1) Crude made it to $106 today. The short term target is now $111. Natural gas also flew to $9.90, up 30% from my entry point of six weeks ago.
2) Carlyle Group in San Francisco failed to meet margin calls on fixed income positions this morning which could lead to more panic dumping. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!
3) Some REITs have fallen 45% from their 2007 peaks. They will get hit further when the credit crisis migrates to the commercial debt area. It is the next shoe to drop in all of this.
4) Sub prime loans constituted 7% of all home mortgages in 2007, but accounted for 42% of all foreclosures.
5) My old friend, Steve Roach at Morgan Stanley (MS), had an interesting piece in the New York Times this morning. He is now the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. When the last bubble burst, business investment collapsed, which accounted for only 13% of GDP. This time consumer spending and home building have collapsed which accounts for a combined 78% of the economy. With this much of the economy sick the bear market will be longer and deeper than anyone realizes. Morgan Stanley transferred Steve to Asia to get him away from New York where his perennially negative views depressed important clients.
6) The Swiss Franc has risen to 1.03 and will soon be at parity with the dollar.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
There is a great low risk trade setting up. The spread between two year and ten year Treasuries over the last 20 years has been +250 basis point to -250 basis point. It is now at the top end of that range. The last time it was this high was during the S & L crisis in 1992. Short the two year and go long, then ten year?? ten times on your back book and you could add another 50% return over the next three years.
Market Comments for March 6, 2008
1) Oil jumped $5 to $104.65 and Natural Gas to $9.90 on an unexpected drop in weekly inventory figures. The chairman of Exxon (XOM) made an interesting comment today. He said that 85% of the growth of oil demand last year was in countries that have artificial price controls and subsidies on oil like China. Demand will fall off a lot if these countries start making consumers pay market prices.
2) There is a rumor that Lennar Homes is in trouble because they have the worst debt/equity ratio of the listed home builders and also carry large off balance sheet items. If they don't, then they will be the best performing stock. You always want to buy the most leveraged player in a rebound.
3) The futures market is saying that there is a 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates 0.75% in two weeks and 100% chance that they will cut 0.50%.?? I personally think that inflation fears will limit the Fed to a 0.25% and that the market will tank.
4) 5% of al of the home mortgages in the US are now either late on their payments or in foreclosure.
5) Citibank (C) stock has dropped to a new low of $22 and they are now asking Abu Dhabi for another chunk of money which last bought at $30/share. C is rumored to be planning 37,000 lay offs this year, 10% of its total work force.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY
Once the credit write downs and the share price melt downs finish they will be followed by write ups and melt ups as the credit markets reopen. There may even be an overlap. You want to be long there.