Archive

What were the Three Worst Performing Trump Stocks?

Thank goodness I didn’t recommend any “BUYS” in Decker Outdoor (DECK), which led the S&P 500 down with a 48% plunge during this period. The profit margins were too low for me, even pre-trade war. The Ugg and Hoka maker buys most of its products from China. Robot builder Teradyne (TER) was down 44%, and lithium miner Albermarle (ALB) is off 40%.

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JOLTS Job Openings Report was Unchanged in March at 7.1 Million,

said the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed a little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged, and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down.

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Pizza Demand is Collapsing!

Or so says Domino's Pizza, the largest seller of the Italian treat. The company posted a surprise decline in first-quarter same-store sales in its biggest market, as elevated inflation and economic uncertainty hit consumer appetite for restaurant food. Never ignore the pizza index!

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S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Slows to 3.9% YOY,

in February, a sharp slowdown. Home prices are increasingly untenable to potential home buyers. Waning consumer confidence, heightened insecurity over economic uncertainties, and the future of household budgets are impacting the consumer housing market. New York (7.7%), Chicago (7.0%), and Cleveland (6.6%) show the biggest gains, while Tampa showed a (1.4%) loss. Expect real estate to remain a major drag on the US economy, with mortgage rates at 7.0%.

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Amazon May Break Out the Trump Tariffs on Invoices,

to show that the extra tax is going to the government and not them. The White House responded explosively, calling it “a hostile political act.” As for me, I’m all for full disclosure. Amazon already breaks out state sales taxes.

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California is Now the World’s Fourth Largest Nation.

The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data for 2024 found that California had a nominal gross domestic product of $4.1 trillion, after the US, China, and Germany, but surpassing Japan. Some 40% of all American corporate profits now emanate from the Golden State thanks to its dominance in technology.

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops 17% Gain This Year.

The Class A shares, now around $795,000 and near a record, are up 40,000-fold from around $20 in 1965, when Buffett took control of a struggling textile company and began his run as Berkshire’s leader. Berkshire has stood out in a year when many are moaning about losses in their equity portfolios. The stock is up 17%, besting the S&P 500 by 23 points, the widest margin since 2007. Buy (BRK/B) on dips.

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Bitcoin ETF’s Suck in $3.5 Billion Last Week,

as the “Sell America” trade expands. Exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin and Ether attracted more than $3.2 billion last week, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone seeing a nearly $1.5 billion inflow — the most this year.

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Big Cap Tech Sells Off,

going into earnings. The Q1 earnings will be good, it’s the guidance that traders are terrified about. Apple’s (AAPL) guidance is likely to be apocalyptic.

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Crude Oil Drops on Global Recession Fears.

Brent crude futures were down $1.09, or 1.63%, at $65.78 a barrel, as of 1522 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.15, or 1.82%, to $61.87 a barrel. The U.S.-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, superseding nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, and discord within the OPEC+ coalition. Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from the U.S. over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that threatens to sap global growth.

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Consumer Confidence Dives on Tariff Fears.

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.2 this month. While that was an improvement from a reading of 50.8 two weeks ago, the index was down sharply from 57.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the final index reading unchanged at 50.8.

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China Relaxes Some Tariffs,

in a modest easing of the trade war. China's government is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals like ethane. Authorities are also discussing waiving the tariff for plane leases, as Chinese carriers pay leasing fees to third-party companies to use some jets. Stocks didn’t care.

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New Home Sales Jump,

in March. The median price of a new home sold is down 7.5% YOY, thanks to greater demand for lower-priced homes. Interest rates delivered a short-term dip in March, which they gave back in April. Sales are fading in April as fears over the economy grow.

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Amazon Beats,

after the company topped Wall Street estimates and showed growth in its advertising and search business. The company suggested that it’s too soon to tally the impact of Trump’s tariffs, but the ending of the de minimis loophole could create a “slight headwind” to its advertising business. The interesting number was Amazon's estimate of a potential market size of 4 billion rides a year for its Waymo autonomous driving taxi service.

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Apple to Move All iPhone Production to India.

It is a move that has been underway for some time due to China’s soaring labor costs. Since I began covering China in the early 1970s, China's average annualized income has risen from $300 a year to $16,000, up 5,300%.

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Fed Beige Books Points to Stagflation.

Prices are rising and economic activity has begun to slow across parts of the nation as businesses and households try to adapt to Trump’s erratic rollout of sweeping tariffs aimed at reshaping global trade, a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve showed. Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports, the U.S. central bank said.

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Europe Retaliates Against Apple and Meta.

Apple was fined 500 million euros ($570 million) on Wednesday and Meta 200 million euros, as European Union antitrust regulators handed out the first sanctions under landmark legislation aimed at curbing the power of Big Tech.

The EU fines could stoke tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump who has threatened to levy tariffs against countries that penalize U.S. companies. Avoid all big tech for now.

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First Solar Jumps on Dumping Win.

The Commerce Department found that China has been subsidizing companies in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. And the department said those companies have “dumped” solar equipment in the United States, artificially depressing prices and hurting U.S. manufacturers. As a result, the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), with its approval, will jointly administer duties on those companies.

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Record Funds are Pouring into Japan.

Overseas investors have bought a net ¥9.64 trillion ($67.5 billion) of the Asian nation’s debt and equities so far in April, according to preliminary weekly figures released by the Ministry of Finance on Thursday. That level is already the most for any month on record, based on balance-of-payments data going back to 1996. What was the only thing Warren Buffet was buying last year? Japanese trading companies.

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Existing Homes Sales Hit 16 Year Low.

Sales of previously owned US homes fell 5.9% in March to an annualized rate of 4.02 million, the weakest March since 2009. The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.

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Tesla Bombs,

with Q1 earnings down a gob-smacking 71%, or $2 billion below the most pessimistic expectations, a four-year low. Sales are in free fall globally. The cost of making and selling vehicles dropped over 17% year over year, driven by lower raw material prices and reduced expenses of ramping up Cybertrucks production. Automotive gross margin for the period, excluding regulatory credits, was 12.5%, down from 30% a year ago, compared with expectations of 11.8%. Tesla short sellers have earned $11.5 billion so far this year, including myself, with the stock down 55%. The shares rose $10 on news that Elon Musk will spend significantly less time with DOGE. Buy only the biggest dips in (TSLA).

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JP Morgan Targets Gold at $4,000 in Q2,

as the “Sell America” trade gathers steam. Central banks are the big winners here, which have been hoovering up the barbarous relic for years.

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Weekly mortgage demand has plunged 13%,

thanks to the “Sell America” interest rate spike. Potential homebuyers are worried about the broader economy and losses in their stock portfolios. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, increased to 6.90% from 6.81%

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New Home Sales Surge,

in a very rare positive data point. Sales of new single-family homes in the US increased 7.4% in March to an annualized rate of 724,000, driven by a surge in the South. Despite the stronger results in March, the outlook for housing is uncertain due to rebounding mortgage rates and weakening consumer and homebuilder sentiment.

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Cheetos Will No Longer be Yellow,

as the FDA bans a number of food dyes. Nor will we see again the brilliant teal of Mountain Dew or pink Salmon. The so-called Make America Healthy Again platform argues that a corrupt alliance of drug and food companies and the federal health agencies that regulate them are making Americans less healthy. It’s bad news for industrial food makers like Coca-Cola (KO) and W.K. Kellogg, which I never follow because of low profit margins.

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