Archive
Hot Tips
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July 29, 2025
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Urgent Trade Alert for Tesla (TSLA).
Urgent Trade Alert for Tesla (TSLA).
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Job Openings Fall to 7.44 Million.
The JOLTS Reports says available positions decreased to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million reading in May, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.5 million openings.
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Consumer Confidence Rises,
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence rose 2 points to 97.2, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 96. A measure of expectations for the next six months climbed this month to 74.4, the highest since February, while a gauge of present conditions fell to a three-month low.
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Trade Deficit Hits Two-Year Low,
as imports collapse. While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday could prompt economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand.
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Boeing Improves,
but the shares fall. Their quarterly loss more than halved and was much smaller than analysts expected as the U.S. planemaker ramped up jet deliveries, recovering from a regulatory crisis and a major strike that halted most production last year. The results highlighted Boeing's efforts to cautiously increase monthly output this year, following years of quality issues and production delays on its flagship 737 MAX. Increased deliveries mark a pivotal step in Boeing's effort to rebound from years of production disruptions and crises that piled on debt, increasing the urgency of accelerating output to restore financial stability. Buy (BA) on tips.
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July 28, 2025
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It’s a Big Tech Earnings Week,
with Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) reporting this week. Oppenheimer raises year-end S&P 500 target to $7,100, implying that tech stocks keep going straight up for the rest of the year.
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It’s Fed Week,
and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Don’t expect any rate cuts until year-end at the earliest and May 2026 at the latest. A lethal combination of tariff-driven inflation and labor shortages triggered by the immigration crackdown, Gunaratne's future price rises. Please don’t tell the stock market!
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Newmont Mining Blows Out Earnings,
with the shares jumping 6%, and announcing a $3 billion share buyback. Gold hit $3,440 an ounce during the quarter, creating a huge tailwind for earnings. The miners are finally outperforming the barbarous relic. Buy (NEM) on dips.
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LNG Jumps,
after European trade deal calls for $750 billion in purchases of US gas. It was going to happen anyway. Russian supplies are not exactly an option. The trade deal probably knocks 1% a year off of European growth prospects for the foreseeable future.
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Housing Posts Worst Spring Selling Season in 13 Years.
Spring is traditionally the busiest season in real estate, not unlike Christmas for retailers. And while the most unaffordable housing market in decades has sidelined all but the most determined buyers, there were signs earlier this year that conditions were right for a rebound. Buy homebuilding like (DHI) on dips. Interest rate cuts are coming.
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July 25, 2025
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Friday, August 22, 2025 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Dinner.
Come join me for dinner at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Dinner, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada, on Friday, August 22. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
Tickets are available for $249. The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada, on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. To purchase tickets for this dinner, please click here.
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The Largest Railroad in History,
may be the result of the Union Pacific (UNP)/Norfolk Southern merger, worth $200 billion. A merger would enable companies to ship coast to coast without having to interchange, and could lead to more efficient loads and greater profit. It’s a distillation of 200 years of M&A that took the US down from 5,000 railroads down to one. It will also be America’s first Transcontinental railroad company.
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Speculative Activity Hits the Highest Level in History,
greater than the Dotcom Bubble and the pre-Great Financial Crisis crash, says Goldman Sachs. But the latest advance for equities has come with another meme stock frenzy, causing many observers to worry it signals a blowout top is near. That’s why I am running 70% cash in my trading portfolio.
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Tesla to Roll Out Robotaxi’s in San Francisco,
accompanied by safety drivers. The success of the robotaxi business is critical for Tesla as CEO Elon Musk has warned of a few rough quarters due to unfavorable EV policy, before revenue from the service and its self-driving software starts making a difference late next year. (TSLA) rose 6% on the news. Robotaxis will never become a meaningful contributor to Tesla's earnings.
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US Fertility Hits All-Time Low,
according to the CDC, at 1.66 children per couple, well below the 2.18 replacement rate. This bodes ill for the economy and financial markets as it means fewer future consumers and investors. But the hit won’t come for two decades. Here’s the proof: My mother had 20 grandchildren, while I have only two.
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July 24, 2025
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Tesla Drops a Bomb,
with Q2 earnings out after the close yesterday and that couldn’t have been worse. On September 30, the company lost most of its green credit it sells to other car companies, the source of $2.7 billion in revenues over the last decade, thanks to the new Tax Bill. Tesla posted the worst quarterly sales decline in more than a decade. Almost every metric posted large YOY declines. Revenue fell to $22.5 billion for the April-June quarter from $25.50 billion a year earlier. Adjusted profit per share of 40 cents lagged the consensus of 43 cents per share. Avoid (TSLA).
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New Home Sales Come in Weak,
as builders’ heavier use of sales incentives failed to motivate buyers put off by high costs. Contract signings on new single-family homes increased 0.6% to an annualized rate of 627,000 last month. June’s results show US homebuilders are struggling to offset an ugly mix of high prices and borrowing costs by offering incentives and subsidizing customers’ mortgage rates, which risk eroding profit margins.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Drop to Three-Month Low,
down 4,000 to 217,000. The lack of material labor market deterioration likely gives the Federal Reserve cover to keep interest rates unchanged next week amid signs that aggressive tariffs on imports were starting to lift inflation.
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S&P Global's Composite PMI Rises,
to 54.6, the highest since December. Manufacturing PMI contracted, while services PMI surged. U.S. business activity picked up in July, but companies asked for higher prices for goods and services, supporting economists' views that inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year mainly because of tariffs on imports.
Sentiment among businesses remained downbeat.
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Google Beats,
with Earnings per share up to $2.31, ahead of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $2.18, and up from $1.89 last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $96.4 billion, above expectations of $94.0 billion, and up 14% on the year. Advertising revenue was strong in Search and YouTube. All told, ad sales were up 10% from 2024 and ahead of Wall Street expectations. YouTube continues to drive advertising sales, up 13% on the year. Meanwhile, subscriptions are a growing portion of its revenue. Leading the charge was Google Cloud, with sales up to $13.6 billion in the quarter, ahead of expectations of $13.1 billion and up 32% on the year.
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July 23, 2025
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Urgent Trade Alert on DH Horton (DHI).
Urgent Trade Alert on DH Horton (DHI).
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Meme Stocks are Back!
OpenDoor rocketed 235% in a week and Kohl's (KSS) 38% today. Traders are targeting the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, with Kohl’s at 49% of open interest. This is a GameStop (GME) replay from 2021. Watch, don’t play.
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Existing Home Sales Drop 2.7%,
in June, to an annualized rate of 3.93 million units. Sales are unchanged YOY on a closing basis. Some 1.35 million units are for sale, up 15.9% in a year, a 4.7-month supply. The median price of a home sold is $435,000, up 2% YOY. Houses are spending 27 days on the market, with first-time buyers at 30%. All cash buyers are at 29%. High mortgage rates are still killing this market.
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Texas Instruments Gets Slaughtered,
down 10% on tariffs crushing earnings. The stock fell in extended trading due to a third-quarter forecast that missed estimates. Revenue increased 16% in the second quarter from $3.82 billion in the same period a year earlier. Sales in the company's analog chip business, its largest, rose 18% to $3.5 billion. The trade war is coming home to roost.
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Nikkei Rockets on Japan Trade Deal,
which dropped tariffs on Japanese cars to 15%. The index rose by 4% and Toyota (TM) popped 15%. Detroit says the US gave away the farm, allowing 100% Japanese content cars in too cheaply. (GM) dropped 10%. Avoid US car companies.
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