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Hot Tips

  • October 16, 2020

    1. Weekly Jobless Claims Balloon to 898,000,

      now that California is reporting again. Not what you want to see going into an election. A slowing economy and spreading virus don’t help either. Some 25.5 million Americans are out of work.

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    2. Morgan Stanley Blows it Away,

      cashing in on this year’s frenetic trading. Picking up E*TRADE for $13 Billion and Eaton Vance for $7 billion will further add to the bottom line. Profits from wealth management jumped to $4.7 billion. I remember when total assets under management were $4.7 billion. Buy (MS) on dips. It will be a great “roaring twenties” stock.

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    3. Tesla Cuts Model S Prices,

      to under $70,000. The game here is market share, not profits. The Model S only accounts for 5% of Tesla’s total sales. Don’t waste time looking at any other electric car maker. Tesla is too far ahead.

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    4. US Producer Prices Pop

      in September, bring the first YOY gain since March. They were up 0.4% following a 0.3% gain in August. Another sign of a recovering economy.  

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    5. GM to Offer Electric Hummer,

      at the Tuesday World Series opener. I thought this was a joke when I first saw it. An hour late and a dollar short. Never find that the car doesn’t exist yet. Production doesn’t begin for a year. Avoid (GM) like last year’s clunker.

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  • October 15, 2020

    1. Wall Street Dives on Mnuchin Pessimism

      over getting a stimulus package through before the election. It was never going to happen. Trump wants to hand the democrats an economy laid waste. Stimulus has been the main support for the stock market for the past month. Sell rallies.

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    2. United Loses $1.8 Billion,

       in Q3, one of the worst airline losses in history. And with Washington gridlocked on more aid, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Tens of thousands of furloughs to follow. Avoid (UA).

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    3. Goldman Sachs Profit Doubles,

      or some $3.62 billion on $10.78 billion in revenues, thanks to exploding bond trading. It helps to have a government running the printing presses like crazy. Buy (MS) instead.

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    4. Ships are Backed up in Los Angeles

      waiting to unload. America’s import boom and soaring trade deficit with China leaves no available dock space on the west coast. It’s another sign of a recovering economy.

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    5. 2020 Boeing Orders are Negative 996,

      most due to cancellations of the grounded Boeing 737 MAX. (BA) really saved the bacon of most of the world’s airlines by failing to deliver right before the pandemic hit and global airline demand collapsed. Still, it’s a record you don’t want to hold. Buy (BA) on dips.

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  • October 14, 2020

    1. IMF Predicts Negative 4.4% Growth for 2020,

      the worst since the Great Depression. Believe it or not, this is an upgrade from more dismal numbers. By comparison, the 2008-09 Great Recession brought only a 0.1% drawdown. If the US passes another stimulus package, it will recover its 2019 GDP in 2021 instead of 2022. 

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    2. New 5G iPhone is Out!

      After a year of speculation, we get a better screen, improved camera, and magnetic charging for $999. The stock dumped on a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Also out is a new mini iPhone for $699. Your neighborhood won’t have 5G for a year.

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    3. Your Social Security Check Will Rise by Only 1.3% Next Year

      as inflation is non-existent. The cost of living adjustment calculation is based on this virtually unchanged from last year. The decade average has been only 1.4%. It’s a far cry from the 14% raise in 1980. Better apply for that job at Macdonald’s soon and beat the rush.

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    4. Used Car Prices are Soaring,

      jumping the most since 1969, and lifted the Consumer Price Index by 0.2% in September. It’s the fourth straight month of increasing inflation.

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    5. Covid Trials Pause,

      at Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lily as test subjects get sick. Don’t expect to get a vaccine for at least a year.

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  • October 13, 2020

    1. Disney Reorganizes,

      building the company around distribution, specifically streaming service Disney Plus, and away from parks, hotels, and cruise lines. Disney Plus has to be the best-timed business launch in history, a month before the pandemic. Before that, my mouse ears were looking a little frayed around the edges. Movie theaters may never reopen again.

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    2. US PC Market Sees Best Quarter in a Decade,

      with millions of new home offices joining the fray. Some 71.4 million computers were shipped in Q3, up 3.6% YOY. Think enormous demand for new chips. Buy (AMD), (MU), and (NVDA) on dips.

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    3. Markets Just Entered the Strongest Six Months of the Year.

      It’s the inverse of sell in May and go away. October to May portfolios have yielded 64% annually for the past 20 years, while May to October investments yield exactly 4%. It traces back to America’s agricultural cycle of a century ago. Take every tailwind you can find!

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    4. The Whale is Back,

      with much of the rise in FANG stocks attributed to Softbank buying in the options market.

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    5. Goldman Expects a Dollar Crash on Biden Win,

      since it is expected to bring a quicker Covid-19 vaccine. The Fed pegging US interest rates near zero doesn’t help either. The 2018 dollar lows are in range. Buy the (FXA) and (FXE) on dips. 

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  • October 12, 2020

    1. Market Jumps on Stimulus Hopes.

      Investors don’t really care if stimulus happens before or after a Biden win. They’re buying now. And Biden will almost certainly double up spending later in the year.  No dips for latecomers. The post-election market melt-up has begun and new highs beckon. Fears of election disruption have vaporized.

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    2. Apple Soars on 5G Launch,

      in the biggest new product lunch in years. Never mind that only a few major city centers, like San Francisco, actually have 5G. It will show up someday. It will be the most expensive iPhone ever. Stock pops $6. Buy (AAPL) on dips.

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    3. The Wealthy are Rushing to Beat a Biden Presidency,

      rewriting estate plans and cashing in on capital gains while taxes are still low. The free lunch is ending.

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    4. Alphabet Should Hit $2,020,

      says Deutsche Bank. Search and YouTube are kicking in big time. Antitrust is never going to happen. Buy (GOOGL) on dips. A 92.27% market share is worth a lot.

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    5. Buffet Takes a Stake in Dillard’s.

      It’s the kind of stable, safe cash flow cow that the Oracle of Omaha loves.

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