Archive

Hot Tips

  • November 18, 2020

    1. Homebuilders Sentiment Index Breaks New Record,

      at 90. The residential real estate market is on fire. After a great run, the homebuilders are still getting fabulous data. Builders are seeing supply shortages everywhere. Buy (LEN), (DHI), and (KBH) on dips. This trend has another decade to run.

      Find Out More

    2. 50% of Business Travel Will Never Recover,

      says Bill Gates. The cost savings for companies are just too great. 30% of Days in the office will also go away, as the American economy remakes itself. That brings more cost saving and higher stock prices. 

      Find Out More

    3. US Retail Sales Dive,

      up only 0.3% in October after a 1.3% jump in September. Enter a chink in the armor of the bull case for stocks. They would have been lower except for Amazon’s “Prime Day”. Stimulus money running out was a big reason.

      Find Out More

    4. US Manufacturing Output Rose

      in October, up 1.0%, taking us to a suddenly mixed picture about the economy.

      Find Out More

    5. Mardi Gras is Cancelled for 2021,

      as New Orleans seeks to avoid a repeat of last year’s super spreader event. The message is finally getting out.

      Find Out More


  • November 17, 2020

    1. Tesla Joins the S&P 500

      and at a $387 billion market cap is the largest new entrant ever to do so. The stock was up 7% on the news. This opens up new categories of institutional investors for Elon Musk’s dream come true, such as the $4.5 trillion in (SPX) index funds, which are now required to buy it. It gives the (SPX) more of a technology bent. S&P finally got past the issue of most of the company’s profits coming from ZEV, or green credits.

      Find Out More

    2. Airbnb Files for IPO,

      looking to add a token of $3 billion this year to get a NASDAQ listing. The home-sharing app made a great comeback reorienting itself to locals in the wake of the pandemic meltdown. And I mean local everywhere. Gross bookings in the first nine months of 2020 plunged 40% to $18 billion, generating a loss of $697 million.

      Find Out More

    3. David Tepper Buys PG&E,

      taking a $750 million stake in the bankrupt California power utility. It’s a hell of a bet, but my old buddy rarely makes mistakes. He’s been selling Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix to finance the purchase.

      Find Out More

    4. Biden May Forgive $50,000 in Student Debt

      on taking office in January. It would add 10 million new consumers to the economy and would be great news for stocks. Cumulative student debt now tops $1.6 trillion and is a major drag on the economy, preventing heavily indebted graduates from any new borrowing. I paid off my student loans 45 years ago and have no gripes whatsoever.

      Find Out More

    5. Warren Buffet is Pouring Money into Big Pharma,

      and maybe you should too. It’s the cheapest sector in the market. AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol Myers (BMY), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE) were his biggest picks, according to regulatory filings, all names well known to the subscribers of the Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter. It’s not all about Covid-19. Every major human disease will be cured in the next decade, spinning off billions in profits.

      Find Out More


  • November 16, 2020

    1. Moderna Announces 94.5% Effective Vaccine,

      triggering another monster rally in stocks for the second week in a row. The vaccine seems to block all of the most severe cases. Seniors may be able to get it by April. Mad Hedge Biotech Letter subscribers made a killing, getting into (MRNA) a year ago, pre pandemic. Keep buying (MRNA) on dips. As for me, I’m running out of longs as they have all worked.

      Find Out More

    2. American Consumers are Loaded with Cash,

      after enduring a spending diet that is approaching a year. Debt service rations are also at decade lows, thanks to ultra-low interest rates. It all sets up a new American Golden Age starting in 2021.

      Find Out More

    3. Mass Tourism Will Return this Summer,

      after we all get our shots, says the CEO of Expedia, Peter Kern. The discount airline ticket reseller has been hanging on by its fingernails for the past nine months and just announced horrific earnings. Hint: this is not Rome’s first plague. A lot of travel businesses will get under, then resurface under new ownership. Summer booking is already picking up.

      Find Out More

    4. GM Recalls 69,000 Bolt EVs for Fire Risk,

      reiterating my view that Tesla (TSLA) is the only game in town in the EV world. With Tesla a decade ahead, GM would be better off making Tesla’s under license.

      Find Out More

    5. Mad Hedge Hits New All Time High,

      up 12.31% in November and 48.34% in 2020, compared to only 4.7% for the Dow Average. Betting the ranch at the right times is key. My eleven-year return is 404.25% or double the S&P 500.  That takes my average annualized return up to 37.03%.

      Find Out More


  • November 13, 2020

    1. Stocks May Go Up for Years.

      That is what the Volatility Index (VIX) is telling us down here at $22. If we break below $20 and stay there, then the long-term Bull market becomes a sure thing. Stocks are now discounting the end of the pandemic.

      Find Out More

    2. Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge to 709,000.

      Nice progress but still a long way to go. Another lockdown could send these numbers soaring. More than 21 million Americans are still collecting benefits, or 13.1% of the workforce.

      Find Out More

    3. However Long-Term Unemployment is Soaring,

      or those who have been jobless for more than six months. Perhaps 10% of the workforce may never make it back. That’s a long term drag on economic growth. Those food lines may be here for good.

       

      Find Out More

    4. US Consumer Confidence Cratered

      in November, from 81.8 to 77, thanks to exploding Corona cases. We could be looking at a double dib recession if cases keep spiking. Stocks could also give up half of the 4,000 Biden rally.

       

      Find Out More

    5. Space X Takes its First Astronauts into Space

      on Saturday at 7:39 AM EST. The historic launch pad 39A launch will be part of a regular shuttle to the International Space Station and the first time NASA has not relied on Russian rockets in decades. The Space X reusable rockets have cut the cost of the launch by 90%. By the way, Space X owner Elon Musk says he has Covid-19 and says the tests are totally “bogus.”

      Find Out More


  • November 12, 2020

    1. US Corona Cases Top 140,000

      and the country is once again running out of hospital beds. Except that this time, it’s hitting the entire country at once. The stock market is starting to notice with the Dow Average down $200. This could be setting up the last good entry point for the Great Bull Market of 2021.

      Find Out More

    2. Home Prices are Soaring

      at the fastest rate in seven years. Ultra-low interest rates and a structural shortage create the perfect storm for higher prices. Houses are now seen as “safe” since they didn’t crash 40% like the stock market did in the spring. Mortgage brokers are so overloaded, it takes three months to get a refi done. This could continue for another decade.

      Find Out More

    3. China’s “Single’s Day” Break All Records,

      bringing in an eye-popping $116 billion in sales for Alibaba (BABA). US customers were the biggest buyers, eclipsing our “Black Friday” by a huge margin. I told you (BABA) was a “BUY”.

      Find Out More

    4. Wall Street Bonuses are Down This Year,

      for the second year in a row, even though brokerage revenues are up. Working out of home comes at a discount. It was a great business model during the 1980s when I was there, not so much now. Online brokers have been eating their lunch. Buy (MS) and (GS).

      Find Out More

    5. Biden Could Lock Down the Economy for 4-6 Weeks.

      That would knock the pandemic on the nose for good, but is it worth the price? That is an idea making the rounds in the incoming Biden administration. Cases could be peaking at 250,000 a day right around the inauguration. I may not go this year.

      Find Out More