Archive
Hot Tips
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June 11, 2025
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The Core Inflation Rate Come in Light,
up 0.1% MOM in May to 2.4%. Food prices were up 0.3%. The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed underlying price pressures muted last month. Economists say inflation has been slow to respond to sweeping tariffs, as most retailers are still selling merchandise accumulated before the import duties took effect. Next month’s report for June should show the first impact of tariffs.
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Another MicroStrategy Copycat Start Up,
with Japanese hotel group Metaplanet announced a $5 billion investment in Bitcoin. They are aiming to buy 1% of the total Bitcoin, or 210,000 coins, by the end of 2027. The move caused (MSTR) to jump $20. The Ponzi Scheme continues.
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Assets held in crypto funds hit a record high in May,
as easing trade tensions lifted risk appetite and some investors used digital currencies to hedge against market volatility and diversify from their U.S. holdings. Morningstar data on 294 crypto funds shows they attracted $7.05 billion in net inflows last month, the highest since December, bringing total assets under management to a record $167 billion.
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Boeing (BA) heads into the Paris Air Show after booking 303 new orders,
and rolling out 38 new 737 MAX jets, a production rate it has been working to reach for more than a year. The company also delivered 45 aircraft last month. It was the sixth-highest monthly order tally in Boeing's history, according to company data.
The orders included the largest widebody jet deal in Boeing's history. Qatar Airways orders account for 130 787s and 30 777Xs, plus options for another 50 of the long-haul aircraft. It looks like the turnaround is here.
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Biotech Remains a No-Go,
after the Department of Health and Human Services fired the entire 17-member vaccine oversight board, the odds of another pandemic just rose. Analysts and investors said that while the dismissal of all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) represented a risk for vaccine makers, the weak performance of those stocks in 2025 suggested that Kennedy's skepticism around vaccines was already factored in. Shares of most big drugmakers are down in 2025, compared with a 2% gain in the S&P 500 index. Avoid biotech stocks.
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June 10, 2025
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Market Volatility is Collapsing,
with the Volatility Index ($VIX) down to the $16 handle, predicting a flat summer for equities. Implied volatilities for options are also in free fall, with Tesla options down from 85% to 55% over the weekend. That would give stocks a zero return for the year through September for 2025. Good thing we coined it when volatility was at extremes.
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US Container Imports Implode,
down 28.5% year-over-year in May, the sharpest decline since the pandemic. The 145% tariffs took hold. China is the top U.S. supplier of goods that enter through seaports, including the nation's busiest in Los Angeles/Long Beach. Domestic businesses ranging from retailer Walmart (WMT) to automaker Ford (F) depend on those goods to operate. You can count on the American marketers of these products to see a similar 27.5% drop in sales.
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Nvidia Goes Ex-Dividend Today.
I thought you should know, as (NVDA) is one of the world’s most widely owned stocks. A $XX quarterly dividend is expected. I happened to be short the June 20 $155 calls, which expire in seven trading days and therefore have zero chance of being exercised against me.
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Administration Proposes 20% Withholding Tax on Foreign Corporations,
doing business in the US. The House Bill, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S. Some analysts call the provision a "revenge tax" due to its wording. It would apply to foreign entities if their home country imposes "unfair foreign taxes" against U.S. companies, which is virtually everyone. I can’t think of a better way to scare foreign investment away from the US..
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Snowflake CEO Selling $600 Million of Stock,
former CEO and current chairman, Frank Slootman. Shares have surged 37% so far in 2025 and set a 52-week high of $214.83 in the past week. Snowflake has been reporting strong quarterly earnings this year, bolstered by strong enterprise demand for artificial intelligence. Snowflake stock was up 0.1% at $211.01 in early trading Monday.
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June 9, 2025
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Amazon Starts Publishing Tariff Add-Ons,
by calling them “Recent Price Increases,” passing in the word “Tariff.” It’s an effort to show that (AMZN) is not pocketing the extra income, but is a result of the trade war. The three items I just tried to buy showed “Recent Price Increases” of 10%. Go ahead and try to buy something.
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Tesla is the Worst Performing Large Cap Stock this Year,
suffering a $380 billion capital loss. Elon Musk’s personal hit was $75 billion. You can thank declining electric vehicle demand, Musk's political controversies over his ties to far-right groups, and a very public feud with the president. I’ve made a killing covering my Tesla shorts and now using triple-digit option implied volatility to go cautiously long through $100 very deep in-the-money spreads. Tesla isn’t going to zero.
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Walmart Expands Drove Delivery Service,
to five states, including Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. Customers will request a delivery through the Wing app, the operator who flies the drones through a deal with Walmart. The drone operator will have up to a six-mile range from stores. Shoppers using the drone service typically order urgent items, such as hamburger buns for a cookout, eggs to make brownies, or Tylenol or cold medicine needed when sick. The Jetsons have arrived!
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Here’s Your US Rare Earths Play.
If you’re looking for rare earths play, look at Las Vegas-based MP Materials (MP). Morgan Stanley just recommended the stock as their best play in the sector, causing it to soar 50% in a week. MP Materials owns the only operating rare earth mine in the U.S. at Mountain Pass, California. China dominates the global market for rare earth refining and processing, according to Morgan Stanley. Previous iterations of this company went bankrupt after rare earth prices collapsed during the 2010s.
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The Number of Millionaires Grew by 7% in 2024,
to 8.3 million. With the S&P 500 up 23% last year, becoming rich was easier than usual. The greatest wealth accumulation came to those with over $30 million in assets. Don’t expect a repeat this year.
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June 5, 2025
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Weekly Jobless Claims Approach One-Year High,
as an 8,000 jump takes the total up to 247,000. More disturbing is that the Challenger job reports showed layoffs up 47% YOY. Companies are shrinking down to weather a recession. We get the big number tomorrow with the May Nonfarm Payroll Report.
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Tesla Sees a Disastrous May,
with sales plunging 68% in Portugal, 67% in France, 54% in Sweden, and 36% in Spain. Only Norway is up, where its abundant hydroelectric resources make electricity almost free. A holding back up purchases ahead of the new Model Y release in June are partly to blame. Plus, every time Elon Musk opens his mouth, the shares drop 5%, as they did yesterday. Keep your (TSLA) shorts.
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Apartment Rents are Slowing,
up only 0.4% in May and down 0.5% YOY, usually a strong period. The effect on property REITS has been pronounced. The national median monthly rent is now $1,398 a month. Vacancies are at 7%, the highest since 2017. Oversupply is the issue.
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Mass Government Firings are Clouding the Economic Data.
Federal government staffing shortages from the hiring freezes have forced the Labor Department's economic statistics arm to curtail the breadth of its data collection for one of the main measures of U.S. inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, beginning in April, reduced the number of businesses at which it checks prices for the benchmark Consumer Price Index report imposed on January 20.
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U.S. Economic Output will Fall as a Result of New Tariffs on Foreign Goods,
the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday. The CBO said the tariffs, which have been challenged in court cases, will raise the costs of consumer and capital goods while increasing inflation.
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June 3, 2025
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ISM Manufacturing Index Dow for a Fourth Month,
falling to 48.5 in May 2025 from 48.7 in April, below market expectations of 49.5. The reading marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the sharpest decline since November 2024, highlighting mounting economic uncertainty and sustained cost pressures, partly driven by volatile trade policies. Output, new orders, employment, and backlog of orders all declined but at a slower pace, while new export sales dropped more sharply.
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Housing Stocks Plunge to One Year Lows,
on yesterday’s spike in long bond and mortgage rates. Construction spending collapsed in April, down 0.9%, for both single and multifamily homes. Another red flag for the economy.
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Sports Betting Stocks Tank,
after Illinois imposes a 25% betting tax, it's the second straight year that the state slapped an unexpected tax on the industry. Under the latest plan, Jonas said Illinois' rate will be among the highest in the country. Now, Wall Street is left wondering if other states will follow Illinois' lead and try and plug their budget deficits by either adopting or increasing online sports gambling taxes. Avoid DraftKings (DKNG) and the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ).
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Job Openings Fall,
in April, Available positions increased to 7.39 million from a revised 7.20 million reading in March, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Tuesday. The advance in openings was driven by private-sector industries such as professional and business services, as well as health care and social assistance. Meanwhile, openings in manufacturing and the leisure and hospitality sector fell, and so did postings in state and local education, leading to a decline in overall government openings.
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Meta to Buy Nuclear Power Plant from Constellation,
as AI energy demand soars. The parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp signed a 20-year contract to buy 1,121 megawatts from Constellation’s Clinton plant starting in mid-2027, when a state subsidy expires. Constellation, the biggest US nuclear operator. Buy (CCJ) on dips.
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