Archive
Hot Tips
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July 1, 2025
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Today is the Worst Day to Buy Stocks in 5 Years.
We just saw a 26% gain in less than three months. We have also seen price earnings multiples explode from 18X to 23X. The probability of making money going forward is approximately 33%, with a chance of loss at 64%, on a short-term basis. Over the vast expanse of time, everything eventually goes up.
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US Dollar Plunging to Four Year Low.
The $5 trillion debt ceiling increase in the Budget bill is the main reason, which would take the National Debt from $37 trillion to $42 trillion. Pay for that European vacation now before it gets too expensive to go.
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Tesla’s European Sales are in Free Fall.
Brand destruction is running amok. In Sweden, they fell by 64.4% YOY, and 61.6% in Denmark. Competition from (BYD) has become killer. The war of words between the president and Elon Musk reignited today, with the latter telling Musk to go back to South Africa. He also ordered a review of all Tesla subsidies, which are immense and have kept the company in business. Sell (TSLA).
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Powell Says Inflation to Surge this Summer.
He also admitted he would have to cut rates by now before tariffs injected massive uncertainty into the Economy. I think he’s telling us no interest rate cuts this year.
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US Manufacturing Says We’re Still in Recession.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI nudged up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the sector that accounts for 10.2% of the economy.
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June 30, 2025
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Chicago PMI Crashes,
to. 40.4 vs. 43.0 consensus and 40.5 in May. The index is now below March's year-to-date high of 47.6 and has been below 50 for 19 months in a row, the Institute for Supply Management said on Monday. A reading under 50 indicates a contraction in Chicago area manufacturing activity. The decline was driven by a fall in suppliers’ deliveries, production, employment, and order backlogs, the ISM said.
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Q1 GDP is Revised Down,
shrinking from 0.2% to -0.5%. It’s further proof that we are in a recession that is accelerating. That’s why bonds (TLT) have enjoyed a five-week $6.0 rally.
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The Consumer Price Index Has Become Meaningless.
With $57 million stripped out of the budget for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the collection of accurate inflation data has become impossible. In June, the BLS revealed that two months earlier, it had stopped surveying living expenses in Lincoln, Nebraska, and Provo, Utah. This month, the bureau scrapped Buffalo, New York. Producer price data for 34 industries that go into 350 economic indices—manufacturing for lime, ammunition, and metal cookware, most of which is imported from China and subject to big price increases, will also be gone by August. The BLS explained its reason for the cuts as “current resources can no longer support the collection effort.” If your policies are about to cause an inflation spike, corrupting inflation data is in the administration’s interest.
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Clean Energy Stocks get Demolished,
as tax breaks are excised from the Senate version of the budget bill. The current draft ends the two most important tax credits for solar and wind projects placed in service after 2027.
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Boeing Gets Some Upgrades.
The revision in outlook comes as a relief for Boeing, which has resolved its labor dispute and is undergoing a broader transformation under current CEO Kelly Ortberg. Sustained operational improvements, particularly continued 737 MAX production progress, should drive FCF (free cash flow) generation and EBITDA leverage metrics consistent with 'BBB' thresholds.
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June 27, 2025
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Punitive Tariffs Return on July 9,
possibly bringing the stock rally to a grinding halt. Yes, that would include the 145% tariff for China. Countries are hesitant to sign deals without knowing how these sectoral levies will impact them, and some, like India, are pushing for commitments from Washington that any deal will match the best agreement offered to any other nation.
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Consumer Sentiment Improves,
in June to a four-month high, with the final June sentiment index increasing to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier. Consumers expect prices to rise 5% over the next year, down from 6.6% in May, and they saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4% over the next five to 10 years. Despite the improvement in sentiment, consumers remain anxious about the potential impact of tariffs, and their views are still consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. It's really very simple: rising share prices make people more confident.
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US Equity Funds See Sixth Weekly Outflow,
as of June 25 as investors took profits near record highs and stayed on edge ahead of key growth and inflation data. According to LSEG Lipper data, investors withdrew a net $20.48 billion from U.S. equity funds during the week, posting their largest weekly net sales since March 19.
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Why is Bitcoin Dead in the Water?
The stock market has made an extraordinary comeback from its lows earlier in the year despite lingering questions about the economy and rising geopolitical tensions, but bitcoin’s gains have been more muted. The flagship cryptocurrency hasn’t rallied in a big way since the beginning of the year. Since May 9, it’s traded in a tight $10,000 range – with a brief blip above that ceiling to its all-time high of nearly $112,000. And this is despite billions of dollars in ETF inflows in that period. On Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs logged 12 consecutive sessions. Both milestones underscore the strength of institutional demand even amid market uncertainty. The funds have collectively seen about $3.5 billion in inflows this month, while the price of bitcoin itself has risen just 2%, according to Coin Metrics.
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Bitcoin Buying Firms are Multiplying.
Over the past year, the number of bitcoins held by companies has jumped nearly 170 per cent. A total of about 130 listed firms hold a combined $87bn of bitcoin, equivalent to about 3.2 per cent of all the bitcoins that will ever exist. MicroStrategy (MSTR) started the trend and now holds a heart-stopping $33 billion in Bitcoin. Among those pivoting to a “bitcoin treasury” strategy is the Trump family media firm. While some firms’ main focus is on buying bitcoin, others are hoarding it while still running other, larger business lines.
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June 20, 2025
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Mad Hedge Hits 42.59% Profit in 2025,
up 12.90% in June alone. We went into June with a 100% “RISK OFF’ portfolio, and every position came good with the June 20 options expiration. That takes our trailing one-year return to a mind-bending 98.01%. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
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The Economy is Sinking,
according to Fed governor Jay Powell. Uncertainty about tariffs and inflation appears to be taking its toll on the economy. Members of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy committee yesterday lowered their projections for annualized growth in America’s gross domestic product to just 1.4% for 2025 on Wednesday.
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More AI Cuts Hit the Jobs Market.
Microsoft plans to lay off several thousand employees within weeks. It’s the latest knock-on effect of investment in artificial intelligence, where efficiencies come from increased AI capabilities, and there is a need to offset spending on the technology. Microsoft will cut thousands of jobs in its sales department and other teams from July. Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion in its current fiscal year to build out data centers that train models and run AI applications. The latest cuts come on top of a reduction of around 6,000 jobs in May across product and software developer roles. Microsoft had around 228,000 full-time employees at the end of June last year.
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New Export Restriction on China Slap Chip Stocks.
A US official told top global semiconductor makers that he wanted to revoke waivers they have used to access American equipment in China. Such a move is expected to escalate trade tensions. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, a closely watched benchmark, fell as much as 2% after the report was published.
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Nvidia Goes Nuclear.
TerraPower, the nuclear startup founded and backed by Bill Gates, announced a new $650 million funding round this week. The investment will help the company build its first commercial power plant. Like other nuclear startups, TerraPower has been riding a wave of interest from hyperscalers, data center developers, and, now, chip designers. Nvidia’s venture arm, NVentures, participated in the round, marking its first energy investment. Buy Nuscale Power (SMR) on dips.
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June 18, 2025
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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged.
GDP expectations were cut from 1.7% to 1.4% in 2025, while inflation and unemployment expectations are rising. It’s a perfect stagflationary forecast. The number of voters opposed to a rate cut rose from 4 to 7. I don’t expect any rate cuts this year because of tariff-driven inflation.
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Housing Starts Hit 5-Year Low.
Multifamily dropped 30% MOM as a record supply hits the market. Single-family home starts fell 7% YOY. All housing-related stats are falling off a cliff.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, down 5,000 to 245,000.
The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed widespread layoffs in the prior week, which had boosted claims to an eight-month high. Though some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, layoffs have risen this year, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses.
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US Crude Inventories Hit One-Year Low.
Crude inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels in the week ending June 13, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. The rise in exports came even as the price differential between Brent and WTI futures has narrowed in recent weeks, a move that typically discourages exports. Companies are attempting to shrink inventories of assets whose price is falling.
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Waymo Applies for New York City License,
for self-driving taxes. The company has applied with the city’s Department of Transportation to operate its vehicles autonomously in Manhattan with a trained human specialist supervising behind the wheel. Shares in rival ride-hailing providers Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) and Lyft Inc. (LYFT) slid on the news. We already have 1,500 in San Francisco.
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