Archive
Hot Tips
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June 15, 2021
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Paul Tudor Jones Says the Taper Tantrum is Coming,
despite last week’s perverse reaction by the bond market to the red hot 5% inflation rate. The Fed’s obsession on jobs only and not inflation will end in tears. My old client and legendary investor has 20% of his assets in inflation plays, including gold (GLD), Bitcoin, commodities, and short US Treasury bonds (TLT). When Paul is wrong, it’s usually not for very long.
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Honeywell Launches Major Effort into Quantum Computing,
tying up with the UK’s Cambridge Quantum Computing. The move puts leading quantum players in hardware and software under one roof. Quantum computing promises a trillionfold increase in speeds and capacity at less cost and will revolutionize technology. Converting from Bytes to cubits. Buy (HON) on dips.
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California’s Economy is Booming.
No gloom and doom here. The Golden State has generated more jobs than any other state, some 1.3 million in a year. The budget surplus has exploded to $74 billion, thanks to a soaring stock market, enough to send out the biggest individual tax rebates in history. The state accomplished the lowest pandemic death rate in the country, half of that seen in Florida and Texas. California remains a mecca for technology companies. So why has the Republican party launched a recall effort against Governor Gavin Newsome, one of the most popular in history and a future presidential contender? Maybe I just answered my own question. Go figure.
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Five-Year Greek Bond Yields Turn Negative,
for one of the worst credits in the world. That is down from 67% back in 2012 when the home of the gods was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. It shows that the debt shortage is global and that governments around the world haven’t been borrowing enough. Massive QE from the European Central Bank is another factor. The Athens stock market has responded in kind, jumping some 30.4% this year, one of the best returns in the world. Buy (GREK) on dips.
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An Aluminum Shortage is Looming,
with 260,000 miles of long-distance transmission lines that need to be built over the next decade. That’s how much will be needed to handle the power of an all-alternative energy US economy. Aluminum is used instead of copper because it is cheaper and lighter. The trade-off is that Al melts at a much lower melting point, 1,221 degrees Fahrenheit instead of 1,984 degrees for copper. One mile of transmission line requires 322 pounds of aluminum so you can do the math. Buy Alcoa (AA) on dips, the largest producer in the US of Al, and your next big inflation play.
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June 14, 2021
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The Big Rotation is On,
with traders moving out of inflation plays and into big tech. That is the outcome of the shocking bond market spike that came out of last week’s 5% print for the Consumer Price Index. The Fed is telling the world that any inflation is temporary, and the world is believing them. It could give us a bond and tech rally that lasts a couple of months.
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How Serious is the Fed Taking Inflation?
We find out at 2:00 PM on Wednesday when Jay Powell holds his press conference after the next Open Market Committee Meeting. Should be fascinating.
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Shipping Costs are Out of Control,
for everything from everywhere to everywhere else. Transporting a 40-foot steel container of cargo by sea from Shanghai to Rotterdam now costs a record $10,522, up a whopping 547%. Tens of thousands of containers are on the wrong side of the Pacific. Shortages of truck drivers are extreme, with $50,000 signing bonuses rampant. It is one thing that could make continuing inflation pernicious.
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If Copper Sells Off, It Won’t be by Much.
Convention internal combustion cars use 40 pounds of copper for wiring. EVs use 200 pounds for the heavy copper rotors in each wheel, in addition to two ounces of silver (SLV). EV production will rise from 700,000 units last year to 25 million by 2030. You do the math. There aren’t enough copper mines in the world to accommodate this demand and it takes five years to build a new one. Buy (FCX) on the next big dip. It’s going to $100 in five years.
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Royal Dutch Shell Selling US Oil Holdings,
in the first move by a major to withdraw for the carbon industry, putting 260,000 areas in the Permian Basin on the block. $10 billion has been mooted as a price. Expect the other major to eventually follow. It’s time to read the writing on the wall. Who will be the buyer? China will be the last big consumer of Texas tea as their technology lags.
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June 11, 2021
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Bond Yields Drop Even With Higher Inflation Data,
Treasury yields fell again as investors looked through the 5% annual jump in the inflation report. The Federal Reserve’s argument that the price increases will be temporary is given the benefit of the doubt by investors.
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Apple Poach BMW Executive to Build Apple Car,
Apple plucked Ulrich Kranz, a former executive at BMW’s electric car division, to lead its own vehicle efforts. Apple has been making waves lately to forge a path towards an iPad on wheels type of future.
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German Economy Rebounds.
Germany’s economy expecting a strong upswing in the second half of this year, according to latest data.
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Hackers Target Another U.S. Corporation,
McDonald’s reports hackers stole data giving the cyberespionage community another win on the back of the Colonial Pipeline debacle.
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No Need For Humans To Design Semi Chips Anymore.
Google claims its AI can design computer chips in under 6 hours. Yes, the pace of technology is hyper-accelerating as we speak and this is more evidence behind this thesis.
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June 10, 2021
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CPI Registers A Sizzling 5%.
CPI is up 2.7% in the 1st 5 months of the year. At this rate, CPI measured inflation will rise 6.5% in 2021. But it’s more likely that price increases during the 2nd half of the year will exceed the 1st, as retailers finally concede reality and pass on higher costs to customers.
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Former Amazon Executives Become GameStop CEO and CFO.
GameStop Corp (GME) has appointed Matt Furlong as CEO and Mike Recupero as CFO. Furlong and Recupero join from Amazon, where they each held senior roles and oversaw various growth initiatives during their respective tenures. This stock has been at the center of meme mania for stock traders.
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Moderna Accelerates U.S. Vaccination Drive.
Moderna has filed with the FDA for emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine for 12-17-year-olds. The U.S. pushes on to lower age groups as we have been the best performers of inoculating our population. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is currently authorized for ages 18 and older in the United States.
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Microsoft Xbox’s Game Pass Broadens Adoption,
Microsoft is planning to bring its Xbox Game Pass service to TVs through its xCloud streaming technology. This will be available as both an app on TVs, and with Microsoft’s own dedicated streaming stick.
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U.S. To Donate 500 Million Vaccines To Emerging World.
In a bid to stimulate global growth, the U.S. will donate 500 million Pfizer vaccines to nearly 100 countries in the next 2 years.
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June 9, 2021
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Meme Mania Back With Clover Health.
Retail traders have pushed up Medicare insurance stock Clover Health (CLOV) shares over 150% this week and it is up another 25% in pre-market trading.
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El Salvador Adopts Bitcoin.
In a momentous moment in the history of the tiny Central American nation, El Salvador will accept bitcoin along with its official currency the US dollar as official legal tender. This is the first country where Bitcoin is legitimized at the same level as the official national fiat currency.
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Large Chunks Of Internet Goes Offline.
Prominent websites failed briefly around the world such as The New York Times and Britain’s government home page after an outage at the cloud computing service Fastly, demonstrating how important secure internet infrastructure is to the entire network.
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Logistics Giant UPS Sets Financial Targets.
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) forecast over $100 billion in total revenue in 2023, along with some ambitious ESG targets such as 50% decrease in CO2 per package delivered for its global small package operations.
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Bond Yields Stay Stubbornly Low.
U.S. Treasury yields inched down below 1.5% despite an anticipated boost in inflation, with data due out Thursday morning.
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