Archive
Hot Tips
-
September 17, 2020
-
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hike Until 2023
and promises to heat up the economy even more than previously. The long-term average 2% inflation target I reaffirmed. Jay sees a net shrinkage of the US GDP this year at 3.7%. The Fed put lives! Buy stocks on dips.
-
Snowflake Sizzles,
with its highly sought-after IPO more than doubling on its first trading day. Its entire market cap traded in an hour and a half. It seems there is a severe shortage of high growth large-cap technology companies. Yikes! We have another Tesla to trade. Warren Buffet doubled his money on day one. The Oracle of Omaha still has his old flair. It seems he has more pull for hot allocations than I do.
-
ChargePoint to Go Public this Year.
Anyone with an electric car already knows who this company is. They are a national network of charging station and is an amalgamation of four smaller such companies. Try to get some from your broker. It will be hot.
-
Boeing Gets Trashed Again,
with a scathing House report assaulting the company and its regulator, the FAA. Don’t touch the stock until we revisit $120 on the next meltdown.
-
Morgan Stanley Says the Trading Boom Won’t Last Forever,
says my former employer coming off of a record quarter. Too much of a good thing won’t last forever. Make hay while the sun shines.
-
-
September 16, 2020
-
Today is Fed Day,
and you can expect the all-important interest rate decision at 2:00 PM EST. Likely they’ll do nothing until 2023! This is a case where the press conference will be more important than the headline.
-
Snowflake Prices Rich,
at $120 a share, valuing the California-based cloud storage company at an eye-popping $33.3 billion. That is 30X sales! Tech is still overheating; they’re just looking for new names. It’s one of the highest valuations ever for a software IPO. Even Warren Buffet bought in, the first time he joined an IPO since 1957.
-
Judy Shelton Fails to Get Her Fed Seat.
Senate confirmation is out of reach. Her preference for a return to the gold standard shot down her chances. Not enough US states produce gold. It’s not a time for archaic, conspiracy-based monetary theories.
-
Amazon is Building its Fleet,
rapidly catching up with FedEx and UPS in aircraft. Planes have become essential for guaranteed one-day delivery. It has added 20 new planes this year to bring their fleet to 70. Good for (AMZN) that are a lot of cheap aircraft for sales these days.
-
Bill Gates Sr. Dies,
an old friend, fellow Scoutmaster, and father to the richest man in the world. Bill made it to 94, no doubt a result of all that hiking with the Boy Scouts. He gave me the best advice ever for raising kids. Bill spent the latter part of his life managing the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. For my last interview with him, click here.
-
-
September 15, 2020
-
Citigroup Announces Surprise $900 Million Loss.
I can’t wait for the excuse for this surprise, out of the blue “operational error.” It’s most likely an expensive hack. It’s the kind of black swan that can hit you any time if you are a short-term trader. Long term investors should be buying the dip in (C).
-
China’s Retail Sales Rise for the First Time in 2020,
up 0.5% in August. First into the pandemic, first out. Keeping Corona deaths to 4,000 was also a big help. It’s proof that economies CAN recover post-COVID-19. Buy China on dips (BABA), (BIDU). Stocks there will enjoy a huge post-election rally once the trade war winds down.
-
Bill Gross Sees no Good Trades,
vaccine or not, as fading stimulus drags on the economy. Defense is the way to go. The legendary former head of bond giant PIMCO is buying value plays like banks, foreign stocks, and yuk, tobacco stocks. Hey, anything for a buck.
-
Jamie Diamond Says Recovery to Derail With No Further Stimulus.
He should know as the chairman of JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Unfortunately, 2021 will be the earliest that we can get such help due to Washington Gridlock. Last week’s stock market lows will be tested.
-
Oil Collapses 15%,
on the dimming outlook for the global economy. Not even massive well shutdowns caused by this week’s hurricane could boost prices. Avoid all energy plays like the plague.
-
-
September 14, 2020
-
Fed Meeting Starts Tomorrow,
and don’t expect any interest rate move to happen. Since governor Jay Powell promised to run the economy hot weeks ago, ten-year US treasury bonds have only eked out a paltry rise to 72 basis points. The market isn’t buying it. It’s tough to beat the ever hyper-accelerating technology that crushes prices. Still, I’ll keep selling short bond rallies because it’s just a matter of time before the government crushes the market with massive over-issuance. Sell every rally in the (TLT).
-
The Biggest Chip Deal in History,
is forced by Softbank’s distressed asset sale. It sold Arm Holdings, a UK-based chip designer, for $40 billion to NVIDIA. Concentration of the industry continues. Only antitrust concerns could block the deal. Softbank stock soared 9% on the news. Buy (NVDA) on dips.
-
Oracle Grabs TikTok,
in a fire sale forced by the trade war with China. How long until China forces a deep discount sale of Apple’s China operations on national security concerns? Tik Tok could turn into a tit for tat.
-
Want to Find the Covid-19 Hot Spot Near You?
Just google “loss of appetite”, “loss of taste,” or “diarrhea” and MIT researchers will find you through your IP address. What else do you have to google for people to find you? Don’t ask.
-
The Aircraft Secondhand Parts Business is Booming,
as older aircraft grounded by our Great Depression get recycled. Most are sold to third world airlines, which are not subject to FAA safety standards. It’s another example of American business turning lemons into lemonade.
-
-
September 11, 2020
-
Skinny Fails,
tanking the Dow Average by 450 points. A Republican Senate failed to provide even $500 billion to support a Covid-19 ravaged economy. There will be no more stimulus until a new administration takes office. Until then, unemployment will remain in the high single digits, tens of thousands of small business will fail, and home foreclosures will explode. The stock market cares about none of this, as it is dominated by large, heavily subsidized companies.
-
Nikola Crashes,
down 18%, in response to a damning report from a noted short seller. They don’t have a truck, they don’t have a claimed hydrogen fuel source, and the founder is milking the company for every penny he can. It’s all hype, thanks to endless quantitative easing. None of the Tesla wanna-bees are going anywhere. General Motors, which just bought 11% of the company, has egg on its face. With a market cap of $20 billion, it’s this year’s Enron. Sell short (NKLA) on rallies.
-
US Inflation Jumps,
with the Consumer Price Index up 1.3% YOY in August, compared to only 1% in July. Soaring used car prices accounted for the bulk of the gain. More proof that the economy lives. Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?
-
Goldman Sachs Moves Global Stocks to “Overweight”
They’re preparing for the post pandemic world. Cyclical “recovery” stocks like banks will take the lead. It fits in nicely with my view of a monster post-election rally and a Dow 120,000 by 2030.
-
The Elephant Unwinds.
Softbank dumped $718 million worth of technology call options yesterday, deleveraging in a hurry. (NFLX), (FB), and (ADBE) were the targets according to market makers. They still own $1.66 billion worth of long positions in call options. Softbank’s position has grown so large that even my cleaning lady and gardener know about them.
-
