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Hot Tips

  • January 10, 2022

    1. The Economy is the Strongest in Decades,

      according to JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond. I agree. That’s because banks prosper most early in an interest-raising cycle. The Fed could raise rates four times this year. Keep buying financials on dips.

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    2. Hedge Funds Lost Money in 2021,

      with flagship Tiger Global fund, a Julian Robertson spinoff, down 7%. Shorts that don’t move (bonds) and longs that collapse (small tech) are definitely not a formula for making money. 2022 should be MUCH better.

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    3. Climate Change Cost $145 Billion in 2021,

      an all-time record, and killed 168. This climate thing is heating up with 2021 the fourth warmest year on record. My California fire insurance rise by 50% last year.

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    4. Bitcoin Breaks $40,000,

      as the flight from all interest-bearing securities continues. Don’t buy the dip yet.

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    5. Take Two Interactive Buys Zynga for $12.5 billion,

      a 64% premium in a big gamble that mobile gaming will pay off. In other words, “Grand Theft Auto”, one of the oldest games in the market, buys “Farmville.” Not exactly a day when I would expect this transaction.

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  • January 7, 2022

    1. Nonfarm Payroll Report Disappoints at 199,000.

      But the Headline Unemployment Rate plunged from 4.2% to 3.9%, approaching a new century low. The U-6 “discouraged worker” rate dropped to 7.3%. Leisure & Hospitality led at 53,000, followed by Professional & Business Service at 43,000 and Manufacturing at 26,000. The government lost 12,000 jobs. Some 650,000 people gain jobs, with self-employment surging. Once again, the data are wildly contradictory as a post-pandemic America remakes itself. Bonds and tech were crushed, financials soared.

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    2. Cathie Wood Gets Crushed Again,

      taking her Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) down 48% from the peak. These days, the market is not prone to paying huge multiples for non-earning tech companies with bright futures. Its saving grace is a major holding in Tesla (TSLA) up 120% in six months.

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    3. NASDAQ Stocks Down 50% Hits Record,

      from one-year highs. It’s a Dotcom bust echo. Traders are selling first and doing the research later. That means half of all tech stocks are in bear markets. Soaring interest rates aren’t helping.

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    4. Apartment Occupancy Hits All-Time High,

      as growing numbers are priced out of homeownership. As a result, rental rates are now rising faster than home prices. Occupancy is now at 97.5%.

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    5. Lumber Prices are Soaring Again.

      When Trump imposed punitive import duties against Canadian lumber imports, the Canadians simply stopped producing. That happened in the face of an ongoing construction boom. Good luck trying to find 2 ½ inch maple.

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  • January 4, 2022

    1. Apple Tops $3 Trillion Market Cap,

      the shares rising above $183, well on the way to my $250 target for 2022. The stock is getting extended short term to raise cash to buy on the next selloff. I am hanging on to my own long term holding with a split-adjusted cost basis of 25 cents.

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    2. Elon Musk Made $30 Billion Yesterday

      thanks to a 13% rise in Tesla shares. High-end forecasts reach 2 million for 2022 EV worldwide production, with Berlin coming on stream this month. There is a six-month waiting list to get a Model Y in Europe. In the meantime, EVs hit a 65% market share in Norway. Keep buying the big dips in (TSLA).

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    3. French Roofing Giant GAF Moves into the Solar Shingle Business

      in a head-to-head move against Tesla. Tesla’s pure solar roofs are expensive and uncompetitive and won’t do partials. GAF’s US-made shingles can be nailed to the roof, avoiding expensive complicated wiring. I already have GAF asphalt shingles under my existing SunPower solar panels. I wondered why they asked for fresh croissants and cafe au lait every morning.

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    4. Stocks are Going Nowhere in 2022,

      says my old friend Byron Wein, co-chairman of fund giant Blackstone. Byron has been known to be wrong. He sees a 20% rally in gold, and 10-year Treasury bonds hitting 2.75%, thanks to the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing.

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    5. US Home Prices Soar 18%, in October

      according to S&P Case Shiller. Phoenix (32.3%), Tampa (28.1%), and Miami (25.7%) led. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.05% were a huge help.

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  • January 3, 2022

    1. 2022 Starts with 4,000 Flight Cancellations,

      on Sunday due to flight crew illness, including half in the US. The second mini-recession of 2021 has begun. But will it be a four-week or eight-week affair? The stock market believes the shorter version in its complete failure to pull back. It's a time frame too short for most but the most nimble to trade around. In the meantime, unvaccinated Americans are banned from France.

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    2. AT&T and Verizon Battle Pending 5G Restrictions,

      claiming their new wireless phones won’t interfere with airlines communications. The great irony is that the government sold the questionable frequencies to the phone companies in the first place. I don’t buy it for a second. If phones really were a risk to airlines, they would take your phone away before boarding.

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    3. Tesla Delivers a Record 308,600 EVs in Q4,

      blasting all expectations, taking them nearly to Elon Musk’s 2021 target of one million. They managed to beat all supply chain challenges. In a brilliant move, when other car makers cancelled chip orders in 2020, Tesla bought them all up. Tesla remains far and away the mass production leader in EVs, and I am maintaining my $10,000 target. In addition, Musk is done selling the stock for another year.

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    4. Mixing Vaccines Gives the Best Covid Response,

      according to British research. A Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna cocktail seems to be the winner. Similar research in Australia confirms the same. We’ll beat this thing yet.

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    5. US Dollar Clocks Best Year in Six,

      up 7%, powered by rising interest rate fears that never came. The Turkish lira was the worst performing, down 44%, thanks to government mismanagement there.

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  • December 17, 2021

    1. The Mad Hedge Wednesday, December 15 Strategy Webinar is Up.

      In it, I discussed the short, medium, and long-term outlook for stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, foreign exchange, energy, and bitcoin. I also gave you the latest data releases. To access it, please login in to the website, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on either GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or BITCOIN LETTER depending on your current subscription, then select WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.

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    2. Tech Gets Hammered for a Fourth Day,

      thanks to rising interest rates. The sector will get hammered again if interest rates rise sharply in January, as I expect. Look for 10%-20% declines at most, then a recovery. Short term they are a sell, long term they are a hold. Last time I checked, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) have not changed their business models and were still making oodles of money. Yearend effects are also at hand, with investors taking profits on winners to offset losers, such as in China.

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    3. There’s a Quadruple Witching in the Options Market Today.

      Watch for extreme volatility near the close as big hedge funds battle it out, trying to push share prices just above or below strike prices to their advantage. Pouring gasoline on the fire will be a record level of front-month expirations, some 80% of which expire worthless. These are retail trades egged on by the brokers.

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    4. Omicron is Peaking in South Africa,

      with a much lower death rate, despite vastly greater infectiousness. This could be a one-month wonder, great news for stocks.

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    5. Supply Problems Hit Rivian.

      Guess what? Mass production is hard, taking their shares to a new post IPO low and off 50% from the peak a month ago. Still, I think they’ll make it. The other EV wannabees not so much. Avoid (RIVN).

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