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Oil Hits $119 Overnight,
driven by panic buying by Asian customers who have no alternative. This is the sharpest rise in oil prices in history, and the US oil industry loves it. It’s an all oil stock market all the time now. Everything else is irrelevant. The Dow Average plunged 1,200 points in overnight trading.
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JP Morgan Sees 10% Stock Market Correction,
as the Iran War broadens out. I see at least 20% once we pass the promised five-week deadline. We did go into this war with stock valuations near record highs. A correction would mark a 10% drop in the US benchmark from its peak, implying the S&P 500 would drop to roughly 6,270 points — or roughly 7% lower than where the index closed on Friday.
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TSA Waiting Lines Extend Past Hours,
as many agents miss their first paycheck as a result of the Homeland Security Budget Shutdown. It’s all happening during the peak spring travel season. Expect airlines' profits to crater. Avoid (DAL), (UAL), and (AA). Close call. I just got home from Mexico yesterday.
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There is No Safe Haven in Bonds,
with yields climbing worldwide on oil-driven inflation fears. Global government bond markets were headed for one of their worst weekly losses in months, on concerns that war in the Middle East will renew upward pressure on inflation and force more hawkish pivots from central banks. Crude oil was set on Friday for its strongest weekly gain since the extreme volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, as conflict halted shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Ten-year US Treasury yields have backed up 17 basis points since the war started.
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The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7,
as investors dump big tech stocks with both hands. The group may still do OK, and some of the individual stocks may even kill it, but the slam-dunk, set-it-and-forget-it, run-circles-around-the-market era of the Mag Seven is gone with the wind. If and when the Iran War ends, you want to pile back into cheap domestic industrial stocks and financials.
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Nonfarm Payroll Shows a Loss of 92,000 Jobs,
in February, the worst since the Pandemic. The Headline Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%. The recession is here. Imagine what the March numbers will look like with the war and a stock market crash. The report calls into question whether the labor market is actually steadying. While job growth jumped in January and unemployment insurance claims have settled at a low level, companies may be starting to follow through on a series of previously announced layoffs.
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Oil Soars 8% to Over $91 a barrel,
up 50% so far this year. Some 90 tankers a day are prevented from passing through the Straits of Hormuz, and 8 have been hit by missiles so far. The Wall Street Journal reported that Kuwait has begun cutting production at some oil fields after running out of places to store bottled-up crude, the latest sign of a hit to supply in the region. Citigroup Inc estimates that the crude oil market is losing 7 million to 11 million barrels a day of supply due to the disruption through Hormuz.
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Business Inventories Rose in December,
another recessionary indicator. Inventories advanced 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in December. The report was delayed by last year's shutdown of the federal government.
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America’s Gasoline Bill Rose by $1 Billion This Week,
portending a move in inflation to mid-single digits. If the conflict prolongs, the airline could see an impact in the second quarter as well. Fuel prices have jumped by 15% in the past week, adding to the pressure on an airline industry already hit hard by the conflict, which has led to more than 20,000 flight cancellations and left thousands of passengers stranded.
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Money is Pouring Out of US Equity Funds.
Investors divested a net $21.92 billion of U.S. equity funds during the week in their largest weekly net sales since January 7. Money market funds spar. As the conflict in the Middle East entered its seventh day on Friday, oil prices were on track for the biggest weekly gains since early 2022, fanning worries of inflation, potentially delaying rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. growth funds suffered $11.15 billion worth of outflows, the biggest for a week since December 17, 2025. Investors still bought $146 million worth of value funds, logging a fourth weekly net purchase.
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Oil Takes Off Again,
rising by $2.50 a barrel to $84 and trashing stocks and bonds. The slide in bonds put two-year yields on pace for their biggest four-day surge since May as higher energy costs fuel inflation worries. Brent hovered near $84 as the war in the Middle East disrupted flows to key buyers. The S&P 500 lost traction after a rally in the previous session. The recession is coming.
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Morgan Stanley Lays off 2,500,
or 3% of their global staff. They are tied to shifting business and location priorities—as well as individual job performance—and are occurring both in the U.S. and abroad. The moves come after the bank reported a banner year in 2025. Morgan Stanley, which has around 83,000 employees, posted record annual revenue in its investment banking and trading division as well as in its wealth-management unit last year. AI is coming for your job!
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BYD Sales Plunge,
as the world flees EVs. The world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer's combined January and February sales volume in 2026 dipped by roughly 36% compared to the year before. This figure was adjusted to account for the seasonal sales slowdown during the two-week Chinese New Year holiday, which took place in mid-February. They may flee back as the price of gasoline skyrockets.
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Berkshire Hathaway is Buying Back Own Shares.
The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate disclosed in a regulatory filing that it began buying back its Class A and Class B shares on Wednesday because the price is trading at a discount to Berkshire’s intrinsic value. The new CEO, Greg Abel, bought $15 million worth for his personal account. Abel, 62, took over for Buffett, 95, at the start of January. Shares of Berkshire have fallen 3% this year and 10% from their record high last May.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Come in Flat.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, while layoffs dropped sharply in February, consistent with stable labor market conditions.
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Netflix Abandons Warner Bros Takeover Attempt.
The heat from Washington was just too great, with antitrust investigations and a lot of back-channel personal threats. Trump supporter Larry Ellison would have paid anything to get (WBD) and shut down CNN, which it owns. Paramount had to raise its bid from the original $19 bid to $31 and leverage an incredible 7:1 to win. It wasn’t worth it for Netflix to overpay for the 20% of (WBD) subscribers they don’t already have. (NFLX) is up 10% on the news.
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Will Trump Attack Iran this Weekend?
The markets think so, selling off big at the Friday opening. Iran’s large-scale purchases of anti-ship missiles pose a problem for the US, as any serious military strategy will tell you. The bond market is starting to discount a US recession, as the markets had enough to worry about!
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Global Investment Fund Flows are Grinding to a Halt.
Global equity fund inflows eased to a five-week low in the seven days to February 25 as investors turned cautious amid growing unease over the heavy costs and potential disruption linked to artificial intelligence and the imminent Iran War. Investors bought a net $19.75 billion worth of global equity funds, marking the smallest weekly inflow since $9.55 billion in the week to Jan. 21, LSEG Lipper data showed.
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Meta to Rent Google Chips.
Meta Platforms (META) has signed a multi-billion-dollar deal to rent artificial intelligence chips from Google (GOOGL) to develop new AI models, The Information reported on Thursday, citing a person involved in the talks. The report of the multi-year deal comes as companies pour billions into chips and AI infrastructure to meet the demand for artificial intelligence.
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Producer Price Index Comes in Hot at 0.5%,
the highest since March of 2022. Excluding food and energy, it was up a ballistic 0.8%. Inflation is coming for your wallet. For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%, while the headline index posted a 2.9% gain. Both figures are well ahead of the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal and suggest that rising prices are still a factor for the U.S. economy.
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Nvidia Earnings Roar, Stock Whimpers.
Maintaining a profit margin at an incredible 75% is unbelievable for a $4 trillion company. But shares can’t go up for the most over-owned company in the world if there are no new buyers. In the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Jan. 25, revenue gained 73% to $68.1 billion. Profit was $1.62 a share, excluding certain items. Analysts had predicted $65.9 billion in sales and $1.53 a share in earnings. Avoid (NVDA) stock, which hasn’t moved in six months.
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Diageo (DGE.L) Dives 13%,
the world’s biggest seller of alcoholic spirits, as the trade war tears its business apart. Weaker demand from North America and China had impacted earnings in its fiscal first quarter. Net sales declined by 4% to $10.5 billion in the six months to December, as the company cited "pressure on disposable income impacting US Spirits. Operating profit was also 1.2% lower at $3.1 billion.
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Rolls Royce Rocks,
on record demand for its aircraft engines. The aerospace giant is targeting an underlying operating profit of between £4 billion and £4.2 billion in 2026, above the midpoint of £3.65 billion as expected by analysts polled by FactSet. It expects free cash flow of between £3.6 billion and £3.8 billion this year, also above expectations. Buy Boeing (BA) on dips, a major engine buyer.
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A Reorienting of Berkshire Hathaway is at Hand.
Berkshire Hathaway's new Chief Executive, Greg Abel, faces numerous challenges as the successor to famed billionaire Warren Buffett. Buffett, 95, stepped down at year-end, concluding six decades in which he transformed a failing textile company into a more than $1 trillion conglomerate that owns several insurers, the BNSF railroad, and dozens of energy, industrial, and retail businesses. A new strategy will be laid out in a general meeting. Avoid (BRK/B) for now.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Come in Flat.
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased marginally last week, and the unemployment rate appeared to hold steady in February amid a stable labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended February 21, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
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