Archive

Is the AI Bull Market Over?

Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts warned investors that the artificial intelligence (AI) trade could cool off. The analysts cite AI-focused capital expenditure (CapEx) peaks and enterprise plays falling short, especially given AI stocks' high valuations. These themes are expected to be in focus during Goldman's upcoming Communicopia and Tech Conference.

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Robinhood (HOOD) Joins S&P 500.

It’s a great play in Millennial Traders and market volume. (HOOD)’s entry was delayed because of its close association with crypto.

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Health & Human Services to Badmouth Tylenol,

with an internet conspiracy theory claiming it causes autism. Kenvue (KVUE), a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) spinoff and current Tylenol maker and owner, saw its shares dive 14%. Out with science, in with fiction. It’s another bill in the china shop move by the government.

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Broadcom Scores $10 Billion Chip Order,

the largest in history, popping the share by 10%. The deal solidifies the company's role as a leading custom chip provider amid Big Tech's push to diversify beyond Nvidia's pricey and supply-constrained artificial intelligence processors. One of the top AI providers is thought to be the customer.

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Tesla EV Market Share Falls to 38%,

from 80%. General Motors has jumped from zero to 15% but is losing more money. The decline highlights the threat from automakers ramping up EV incentives at a difficult time for the industry. Analysts expect an EV sales bump to continue through September in the United States, then drop when federal tax credits expire at the end of the month, raising financial pressure on Tesla and other automakers.

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The Mad Hedge September Traders & Investors Summit is On!

The Fed has stopped raising interest rates, inflation is falling, and tech stocks are on fire!  What should you do about it?

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Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.

Best of all, by signing up, you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes. You can attend for free!

Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here.

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Nonfarm Payroll Collapses,

in August, to only 22,000, far below the 75,000 estimate and the 353,000 from the beginning of 2024. The Headline Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a four-year high. It’s the worst report since the Pandemic. The stagflationary economy marches on. Every jobs report from here on may be a disappointment with the government firing over 300,000, hitting the numbers, and AI destroying jobs at an epic pace. Who is Trump going to fire this time?

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Elon Musk Lands $1 trillion Pay Package.

But Musk must sell 20 million Teslas, 1 million robots, and take the company above $2 trillion in market cap to get that paycheck, which would come in the form of new share issues. Elon already owns 20% of Tesla.

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Demand for Industrial Space Hits 15-Year Low.

The big reshoring isn’t happening. Just 27 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed in the first half of this year, and demand fell by 11.3 million in the second quarter alone — the first quarterly drop since 2010 — according to an August report from NAIOP, a commercial real estate development association. Since the uncertainty is likely to continue through the end of this year, NAIOP projects that net absorption will be "nearly flat" over the second half of this year.

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Gold Hits Another High of $3,553.

Attacks on the Fed are leading to lower interest rate prospects, which is creating huge demand for all dollar alternatives, especially gold and silver. I maintain my target of $5,000 an ounce.

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ADP Comes in Weak.

U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market. Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That's below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month. Following a political appointment, the new head of the BLS, more attention is being focused on private data sources.

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Weekly jobless claims increase 8,000 to 237,000,

a three-month high. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, offering further evidence that labor market conditions were softening. Job growth has shifted into stall speed, with economists blaming sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

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Sin City is Slowing Down.

Las Vegas has seen visitation decline for seven consecutive months, with the most recent report from July showing a 12% decline year over year. MGM and Las Vegas more broadly had posted several years of growth in visitation, room rates, and profits before this year's slowdown. The Las Vegas slump could be a canary in the coal mine for U.S. travel more broadly, as it does seem to be a leading indicator. And the industry as a whole is facing some troubling obstacles.

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The US Yield Curve is Steepening.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, a crucial barometer of how the economy is doing, has steepened on fears of mounting public debt, President Donald Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, and his aggressive tariff policies.

The shift has direct implications for banks' net interest income and shapes their lending decisions, since banks borrow short-term and lend long-term, relying on the spread between the two for profits. Bad news for the economy and the stock market is coming.

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ISM Services Rises,

to 52 in August 2025 from 50.1 in July, beating forecasts of 51. The reading pointed to the highest expansion in the services sector in six months, driven by faster growth rates for business activity (55 vs 52.6), new orders (56 vs 50.3), and inventories (53.2 vs 51.8). Offsetting these positive indicators, however, are a continued contraction in employment (46.5 vs 46.4), a 16-year low for backlog of orders (40.4 vs 44.3), and elevated prices (69.2 vs 69.9).

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Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal.

No, we are not in a state of war, so Congress has the sole ability to levy tariffs. It’s in the constitution, dummy. Stocks opened down 600 points but then rallied when traders figured out that importers will get to get $500 billion worth of import taxes back. On the other hand, it will add $500 billion to the already monstrous National Debt, so long bonds (TLT) tanked….again.

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Gold Hits New All-Time High,

and silver a 14-year high. My targets are still $5,000 for the barbarous relic and $50 for white gold. Gold rose over 1% on Tuesday, surging to an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce, with investors piling into the metal on growing conviction of a Federal Reserve rate cut and lingering political and economic risks. Spot Gold was up 1.5% at $3,526.70 per ounce, after climbing to as high as $3,526.22. Bullion has gained nearly 34% this year.

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Kraft Heinz Splits,

taking the stock. So, Ketchup and mustard don’t mix after all. (KHC) will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.

The spinoff is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and high tariffs.

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Activist Elliot Takes a Run at PepsiCo,

with a $4 billion stake. PepsiCo's stock has lagged its biggest rival, Coca-Cola (KO.N), over the past five years, as the Quaker Oats maker tackles choppy demand for its snacks business and pursues a shift to healthier drinks and sodas.

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JOLTS Comes in Weak,

at 7.13 Million. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 176,000 to 7.181 million by the last day of July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.378 million unfilled jobs. Another vote for a rate cut on September 17.

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Core PCE Price Index Comes Hot,

taking stocks. US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3%, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. The advance was boosted by income growth and driven by goods. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items and is favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.3% from June. From the prior year, the gauge picked up to 2.9%, the most since February.

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Tesla Loses $7,500 EV Subsidy on September 30,

and there may be a short play going into this. Specifically, as long as a shopper enters a binding contract to buy a vehicle before Sept. 30, the purchase can qualify for the tax credit — even if the car isn't actually delivered until later. Tesla was founded on this subsidy, and it kept it running for a decade or more. It could be another short opportunity setting up here.

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The Chicago Business Barometer Fell,

to 41.5 in August 2025 from 47.1 in July, missing market expectations of 46. The index remained below the 50-point threshold for the 21st consecutive month, signaling continued contraction in business activity. The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in new orders (-10.8 points), the largest since September 2023, followed by a decrease in production (-3.6 points), marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the weakest level since December 2024. Order backlogs fell (-1.4 points), while inventories declined (-2.3 points), reflecting reduced demand and cautious stockpiling. Supplier deliveries rose (+5.8 points), partially offsetting the slowdown.

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University of Michigan comes in Weak,

at 58.2, the weakest since May. Expectations are falling. It is now about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump, but remains above the trough in sentiment seen in April. This month’s decline was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Current conditions dropped nearly 10%, led by a sharp decrease in buying conditions for durable goods. The expectations index weakened a touch. While expectations for business conditions weakened for both the short and long run, the outlook for future personal finances held steady this month.

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Marvel Shares Dive 16%,

after the artificial intelligence chipmaker's data center revenue fell short of estimates and it gave lackluster guidance for the current quarter. Revenue jumped 58% from a year ago in the fiscal second quarter that ended Aug. 2, a record for the company that was fueled in part by "strong AI demand" for its custom silicon and electro-optics products.

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