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Hot Tips
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Japanese Conservative Election Win Sends Nikkei Soaring,
topping 57,000. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported. A decisive win for Takaichi could be the “best outcome” for markets over the medium term, as strategic investments and tax reform bolster equities.
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Justice Department Launches Antitrust Investigation of Netflix (NFLX),
which is attempting to deprive Paramount from taking over Warner Bros. Paramount is owned by Trump's major donor, Larry Ellison. Antitrust prosecutions usually proceed when a company has a 60% market share or higher. The Netflix share of global streaming is 10%.
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Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit-Six Month Low at 3.1%.
Median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%), and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%), its lowest reading since July 2023.
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Cleveland Cliffs Dives 24%,
reporting a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss of $21 million, with sales flat year over year at $4.3 billion. Full-year 2025 EBITDA for Cliffs was $37 million, a significant decrease from $773 million reported in 2024. The company expects to ship 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026, an increase from 16.2 million tons in 2025. If the company can’t make money with the amount of domestic steel protection it is receiving right now you should avoid (CLF).
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Alphabet to Issue 100-Year Bond
to finance AI build-out, in the first such issue since the 1990s. The 100-year bond will be denominated in sterling, and the main buyer is expected to be insurance companies and pension funds. The sale is part of a larger debt issue by Alphabet, which is raising funds to finance its ambitions in artificial intelligence, with capital expenditures expected to reach as much as $185 billion this year.
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Bitcoin Crashes,
reaching a 15-month low of $63,000, and it may get worse. The Trump bump is gone. Strategy (MSTR) plunged to $104 and is thought to have lost $17 billion so far this year. Avoid all crypto for now.
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Stellantis Shares Dive 24%,
after a massive $26.5 billion EV write-down. Shares of the Franco-Italian group, which owns the old Chrysler, fell by up to 24% to 6.17 euros in Milan, hovering around their lowest price since May 2020. If the losses hold, the stock will see its biggest one-day drop on record, as Friday's losses wipe off more than 5 billion euros from Stellantis' market capitalization.
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Amazon Plunges 12%,
after missing its fourth-quarter earnings estimates. The e-commerce giant earned $1.95 per share versus the $1.97 analysts polled by LSEG had forecast. On the other hand, its $213.39 billion revenue beat expectations of $211.33 billion. The (AMZN) story is in the same dilemma as all hyperscalers, namely, the investment community isn’t currently willing to pay a premium to back companies behind the AI build-out.
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iPhones are About to Get More Expensive,
as the AI build-out drives up parts prices. The iPhone maker (AAPL) predicted strong sales growth last week, spurred by demand for its iPhone 17 models. CEO Tim Cook told investors he expected memory chip prices to increase sharply, but declined to answer analysts' questions about whether Apple would raise prices in response.
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US Equity Fund Inflows Plunge.
Witnessing an easing of demand in the week through February 4 on caution over a selloff in software stocks, although strong earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) offered some support. Investors bought U.S. equity funds of $5.58 billion during the week, approximately a 48% drop compared with the prior week's $10.82 billion net inflows.
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There’s a Slow-Motion Crash Underway,
with technology stocks seeing their biggest two-day drop since April. Bitcoin treasury stock Strategy (MSTR) cratered 35% in a week and has given up 74% in four months. Interest rates are rising, which is not good for anyone. Is the rising unemployment rate finally starting to bite?
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rocket.
Initial claims increased by 22,000 to 231,000 in the final week of January, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Claims exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.84 million in the previous week.
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Layoffs Hit 17-Year High,
while hiring a new low according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday. U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009, while the economy was in the final months of its steepest downturn since the Great Depression.
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Silver Collapses Another 16%,
to a new post bubble low at $67. Analysts point to speculative flows, leveraged positioning, and options-driven trading as key drivers of the price swings. No way of knowing the bottom here. My worst-case low? The old Bunker Hunt high of $50 an ounce.
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Shipping Companies are Getting Torpedoed,
with the collapse of international trade leading to structural overcapacity. Danish shipping giant Maersk said on Thursday that falling freight rates, driven by container-vessel overcapacity and the gradual resumption of shorter Red Sea routes, could halve earnings in 2026, dragging its shares down sharply. Avoid all shipping plays.
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SpaceX Buys xAI for $1.2 Trillion,
in the largest merger in history. Musk estimates that within two to three years, the most cost-effective way to generate AI compute will be in space, as Big Tech companies spend hundreds of billions in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence, a theoretical milestone where machines could surpass human capabilities in cognitive tasks. This won’t be open to the public.
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Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap.
The Bentonville, Arkansas-based chain — a longtime favorite of bargain-hunting consumers — has flexed its massive scale and supplier network to keep prices low and grab market share across the income spectrum. While Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience. Buy (WMT) on dips.
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Schlumberger (SLB) Wins $1.5 Billion Kuwait Contract.
Oil producers in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are seeking to boost inventories, which is driving exploration and drilling activity in the region, and with it demand for oilfield services. In December, SLB received a five-year contract to supply Saudi Aramco services for the energy giant's unconventional gas fields.
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$2.5 Billion in Bitcoin was Dumped Last Week,
taking the cryptocurrency down to a one-year low at $74,000. The wipeouts in both short and long Bitcoin positions are far below $19 billion in crypto liquidations the market experienced after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China. Even so, analysts say the fresh cascade of wipeouts demonstrates how sensitive the crypto market has become to risk-off sentiment. Avoid all crypto.
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Take a Look at SoFi.
Shares of SoFi have surged 43% overall in the past 12 months but have declined 10% since the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Jan. 30. Momentum in the business is undeniable, as SoFi continues to add new members and deposits at a record pace. Other fintechs report deposit outflows or stagnant member growth, and investments in marketing in ’25 and 1H26 set the stage for continued premium customer acquisition and engagement for the foreseeable future.
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The Precious Metals Rout Continues,
with gold dropping to $4,100 and silver to $68. The margin calls and forced liquidations continue. Some $287 million of gold and silver ETFs were liquidated on Thursday and Friday. But a bottom may be near. Gold is now only 5% about the 50-day moving average, while silver is already there. I expect a bounce back, as all other investment alternatives are getting so much worse. Buy (GLD) and (SLV) on bigger dips. Notice that it's the non-yielding asset classes that are getting slaughtered along with crypto, which are all predicting higher interest rates.
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Government Cancels Friday Jobs Report,
ostensibly because of the government shutdown. Every opportunity to hide the bad news is taken. Private sources like Challenger, ADP, and Standard and Poor’s are offering the only reliable data releases from here on.
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Rare Earth Stocks Jump on Trump's $12 Billion Stockpile Proposal.
The end result is that everyone will have to pay much higher prices for rare-earth dependent parts. Avoid the bubble. The insiders have already made their killing. The problem is that Trump has no money to finance this.
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Ford to Offer Chinese EVs for Sale in the US,
presumably to be assembled at US plants in a direct challenge to Tesla.
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Where is the Bottom for Software Stock?
After Microsoft’s (MSFT) 12% selloff last week and SAP’s 19% crash, investors are wondering whether the suffering will never end for this sector. It’s more than just AI eating their lunch. Many companies have taken programming in-house and no longer rely on third parties.
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