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September 5, 2025
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The Mad Hedge September Traders & Investors Summit is On!
The Fed has stopped raising interest rates, inflation is falling, and tech stocks are on fire! What should you do about it?
Attend the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit from September 9-11. Learn from 28 of the best professionals in the market with decades of experience and the track records to prove it.
Every strategy and asset class will be covered, including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals, commodities, energy, and real estate.
Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.
Best of all, by signing up, you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes. You can attend for free!
Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here. -
Nonfarm Payroll Collapses,
in August, to only 22,000, far below the 75,000 estimate and the 353,000 from the beginning of 2024. The Headline Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a four-year high. It’s the worst report since the Pandemic. The stagflationary economy marches on. Every jobs report from here on may be a disappointment with the government firing over 300,000, hitting the numbers, and AI destroying jobs at an epic pace. Who is Trump going to fire this time?
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Elon Musk Lands $1 trillion Pay Package.
But Musk must sell 20 million Teslas, 1 million robots, and take the company above $2 trillion in market cap to get that paycheck, which would come in the form of new share issues. Elon already owns 20% of Tesla.
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Demand for Industrial Space Hits 15-Year Low.
The big reshoring isn’t happening. Just 27 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed in the first half of this year, and demand fell by 11.3 million in the second quarter alone — the first quarterly drop since 2010 — according to an August report from NAIOP, a commercial real estate development association. Since the uncertainty is likely to continue through the end of this year, NAIOP projects that net absorption will be "nearly flat" over the second half of this year.
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Gold Hits Another High of $3,553.
Attacks on the Fed are leading to lower interest rate prospects, which is creating huge demand for all dollar alternatives, especially gold and silver. I maintain my target of $5,000 an ounce.
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September 4, 2025
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ADP Comes in Weak.
U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market. Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That's below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month. Following a political appointment, the new head of the BLS, more attention is being focused on private data sources.
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Weekly jobless claims increase 8,000 to 237,000,
a three-month high. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, offering further evidence that labor market conditions were softening. Job growth has shifted into stall speed, with economists blaming sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.
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Sin City is Slowing Down.
Las Vegas has seen visitation decline for seven consecutive months, with the most recent report from July showing a 12% decline year over year. MGM and Las Vegas more broadly had posted several years of growth in visitation, room rates, and profits before this year's slowdown. The Las Vegas slump could be a canary in the coal mine for U.S. travel more broadly, as it does seem to be a leading indicator. And the industry as a whole is facing some troubling obstacles.
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The US Yield Curve is Steepening.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, a crucial barometer of how the economy is doing, has steepened on fears of mounting public debt, President Donald Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, and his aggressive tariff policies.
The shift has direct implications for banks' net interest income and shapes their lending decisions, since banks borrow short-term and lend long-term, relying on the spread between the two for profits. Bad news for the economy and the stock market is coming.
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ISM Services Rises,
to 52 in August 2025 from 50.1 in July, beating forecasts of 51. The reading pointed to the highest expansion in the services sector in six months, driven by faster growth rates for business activity (55 vs 52.6), new orders (56 vs 50.3), and inventories (53.2 vs 51.8). Offsetting these positive indicators, however, are a continued contraction in employment (46.5 vs 46.4), a 16-year low for backlog of orders (40.4 vs 44.3), and elevated prices (69.2 vs 69.9).
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September 3, 2025
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Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal.
No, we are not in a state of war, so Congress has the sole ability to levy tariffs. It’s in the constitution, dummy. Stocks opened down 600 points but then rallied when traders figured out that importers will get to get $500 billion worth of import taxes back. On the other hand, it will add $500 billion to the already monstrous National Debt, so long bonds (TLT) tanked….again.
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Gold Hits New All-Time High,
and silver a 14-year high. My targets are still $5,000 for the barbarous relic and $50 for white gold. Gold rose over 1% on Tuesday, surging to an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce, with investors piling into the metal on growing conviction of a Federal Reserve rate cut and lingering political and economic risks. Spot Gold was up 1.5% at $3,526.70 per ounce, after climbing to as high as $3,526.22. Bullion has gained nearly 34% this year.
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Kraft Heinz Splits,
taking the stock. So, Ketchup and mustard don’t mix after all. (KHC) will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.
The spinoff is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and high tariffs.
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Activist Elliot Takes a Run at PepsiCo,
with a $4 billion stake. PepsiCo's stock has lagged its biggest rival, Coca-Cola (KO.N), over the past five years, as the Quaker Oats maker tackles choppy demand for its snacks business and pursues a shift to healthier drinks and sodas.
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JOLTS Comes in Weak,
at 7.13 Million. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 176,000 to 7.181 million by the last day of July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.378 million unfilled jobs. Another vote for a rate cut on September 17.
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August 29, 2025
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Core PCE Price Index Comes Hot,
taking stocks. US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3%, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. The advance was boosted by income growth and driven by goods. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items and is favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.3% from June. From the prior year, the gauge picked up to 2.9%, the most since February.
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Tesla Loses $7,500 EV Subsidy on September 30,
and there may be a short play going into this. Specifically, as long as a shopper enters a binding contract to buy a vehicle before Sept. 30, the purchase can qualify for the tax credit — even if the car isn't actually delivered until later. Tesla was founded on this subsidy, and it kept it running for a decade or more. It could be another short opportunity setting up here.
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The Chicago Business Barometer Fell,
to 41.5 in August 2025 from 47.1 in July, missing market expectations of 46. The index remained below the 50-point threshold for the 21st consecutive month, signaling continued contraction in business activity. The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in new orders (-10.8 points), the largest since September 2023, followed by a decrease in production (-3.6 points), marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the weakest level since December 2024. Order backlogs fell (-1.4 points), while inventories declined (-2.3 points), reflecting reduced demand and cautious stockpiling. Supplier deliveries rose (+5.8 points), partially offsetting the slowdown.
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University of Michigan comes in Weak,
at 58.2, the weakest since May. Expectations are falling. It is now about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump, but remains above the trough in sentiment seen in April. This month’s decline was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Current conditions dropped nearly 10%, led by a sharp decrease in buying conditions for durable goods. The expectations index weakened a touch. While expectations for business conditions weakened for both the short and long run, the outlook for future personal finances held steady this month.
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Marvel Shares Dive 16%,
after the artificial intelligence chipmaker's data center revenue fell short of estimates and it gave lackluster guidance for the current quarter. Revenue jumped 58% from a year ago in the fiscal second quarter that ended Aug. 2, a record for the company that was fueled in part by "strong AI demand" for its custom silicon and electro-optics products.
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August 28, 2025
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The Mad Hedge September Traders & Investors Summit is On!
The Fed has stopped raising interest rates, inflation is falling, and tech stocks are on fire!
What should you do about it?
Attend the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit from September 9-11. Learn from 28 of the best professionals in the market with decades of experience and the track records to prove it.
Every strategy and asset class will be covered, including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals, commodities, energy, and real estate.
Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.
Best of all, by signing up, you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes.
Usually, access to an exclusive conference like this costs thousands of dollars. You can attend for free!
Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here.
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Nivida Disappoints Slightly,
knocking the stock down $5. Nvidia Corp. gave a revenue forecast of roughly $54 billion for the fiscal third quarter, in line with the average Wall Street estimate. The company's leadership rejected the notion that interest in deploying AI infrastructure was flagging, with Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang saying "the opportunity ahead is immense". Nvidia approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks and said it sees $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.
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US Economy Grows at 3.3% Rate in Q2.
The US economy expanded in the second quarter at a slightly faster pace than initially estimated on a pickup in business investment and an outsize boost from trade. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a 3.3% annualized pace, the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday. That is compared with an initially reported 3% increase. Business investment expanded at a 5.7% pace after surging in the first quarter. The latest figure was stronger than the 1.9% initially reported and reflected an upward revision to investment in transportation equipment and the strongest advance in intellectual property products in four years.
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Pending Home Sales Drop 0.4%
in June, and 7% YOU on a signed contract basis. Sales only rose in the West. Some 15% of contracts were cancelled before closing, the highest on record, likely because borrowers failed to show adequate incomes.
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Strategy (MSTR) is Fading Fast.
Michael Saylor's Bitcoin experiment is facing a market backlash, raising questions about the sustainability of the corporate-treasury model he pioneered. Strategy Inc.'s new preferred stock has drawn tepid demand, and the company has returned to common-share issuance, despite earlier pledges to limit dilution, which has rattled investors. The decline of Strategy's premium could unravel confidence in the model, which has inspired a wave of treasury firms that collectively hold more than $108 billion worth of Bitcoin's supply. Sell (MSTR) on rallies.
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