Archive
Hot Tips
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October 6, 2025
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AMD Soars 30% on Open AI’s Purchase of a 10% Stake.
OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct graphics processing units over multiple years and across multiple generations of hardware, the companies said Monday. It will kick off with an initial 1-gigawatt rollout of chips in the second half of 2026. Buy (AMD) on dips.
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Fifth Third Buys Comerica for $10.9 Billion.
I warned you that a transaction like this was headed our way in my September 15 letter. Regional lenders have outperformed large banks, but both have lagged the S&P 500 since the Pandemic. There have been 118 regional bank mergers so far this year, worth $23 billion compared to 500 in 1998. Bank analysts cite the following as cash cows ripe for takeover: Prime targets include Salt Lake City-based Zions Bancorp (ZION), Maryland’s Eagle Bancorp (EGBN), Texas-based First Foundation (FFWN), and Tulsa-based BOK Financial (BOKF).
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Nikkei Soars 5% on Election Result,
with the country’s first female prime minister winning the election. The Japanese Yen fell sharply. PM Takaichi supports more fiscal and monetary stimulus, with the latter punching up against the BoJ’s desire to continue to raise interest rates, albeit slowly, and the elevated inflation in the country.
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Tesla Hints at Low-End Roadster,
which Elon Musk has been talking about for a decade, taking the shares up $16. Musk has a history of promising things that are either not delivered or take substantially longer than he initially says. For investors, a mass-market model is seen as key to revitalizing Tesla's sales. While Tesla reported a jump in auto deliveries in the third quarter of the year, this was attributed to a pull forward in demand due to the expiration of a federal tax credit.
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Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High,
as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value continued to benefit from strong demand from investors. The rally in bitcoin since the start of the year has been underpinned by flows from institutional investors, friendlier policies of the administration, and an increasing connection with global financial systems. Bitcoin climbed above $125,000 for the first time on Sunday, rising to $125,653.32. It was last up 1.88% to $125,081.85, on course for the second straight session of gains. It has gained more than 33% this year.
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October 3, 2025
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Gold to Top $4,000 by Year-End,
says HSBC. Central bank, ETF, and retail buying of the only truly safe asset continues unabated. This time, they are all trying to front-run flooding of the money supply by the US government in 2026.
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Soybean Farmers are Going Broke,
after China canceled all orders, the world’s largest buyer. It is the bitter fruit of the trade war. Cries for welfare payments from farmers from Washington are rising, causing the National Debt to ratchet up further.
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Oil is Headed for New Lows,
after OPEC+ moves to increase production at their meeting this weekend. Russia needs to fund the war, and Saudi Arabia needs to fund a lavish lifestyle. Saudi Arabia would prefer to see double, triple, or even quadruple that figure - 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd, or 548,000 bpd, respectively, as it has the ability to ramp up production quickly and wants to grow market share.
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Visibility has Become Invisible,
with the complete disappearance of government economic data. You’re just going to have to close your eyes and buy. Private data, and independent news sources like Mad Hedge Fund Trader have never been more valuable. By the way, the private data universally show that the US economy is worsening.
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Buy Freeport McMoRan,
says UBS. The Indonesian flood is a temporary setback. The investment bank upgraded Freeport (FCX) to buy from neutral in a report out Thursday, raising its 12-month price target on the stock to $48 from $42.50, implying more than 23% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is up 13% since my LEAPS recommendation weeks ago.
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October 2, 2025
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Bureau of Labor Statists Head Fired,
after only a month in the job, most likely because he refused to falsify the data. More accurately, the White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni. That is my guess. If anyone is willing to falsify the data, there is an opening in Washington, DC. Will anyone notice? With the government shut down, no data is economy out of the US Government anyway. Wanted: Someone with a total lack of character.
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Elon Musk wants to Boycott Netflix,
over a single movie that conservatives find offensive. (NFLX) dove 5%, then bounced hard. Tesla also fell $10 despite slightly better than expected Q3 sales figures of 4997,099, up 7% YOY. There was a rush to buy EVs in September ahead of the expiration of tax credits. Expect a terrible Q4 with no tax credits. So much for Elon’s promise to his board to stay out of politics. Buy (NFLX) on the dip, sell (TSLA) on any rallies.
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US Hiring at 16-Year Low.
U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances. The report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, does not normally attract much attention. But together with other private data, it has become more prominent due to a U.S. government shutdown that has led to major economic releases being suspended, including the closely watched employment report for September that was due on Friday.
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Ford and General Motors EV Sales Jump.
Both companies said third-quarter sales overall increased roughly 8% from a year earlier, with EV sales more than doubling for GM. Ford said sales of its EVs increased by 30% compared with the third quarter of 2024. Hyundai reported its namesake brand recorded a 13% year-over-year sales increase during the third quarter, also led by doubling sales of all-electric vehicles.
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Publicly Listed US Companies Drop by Half in 30 Years.
The number of publicly traded firms in the U.S. decreased from nearly 8,100 in 1996 to just over 4,000 by the end of last year. You can blame a massive wave of mergers and acquisitions, which have concentrated ownership in a handful of giant companies. Companies are increasingly choosing to remain private longer or go private. Lower interest rates are expected to boost take-private transactions.
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October 1, 2025
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Private Hiring Collapses, with the ADP down -32,000,
the biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Economists surveyed had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000.
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CarMax Shares Get Crushed on Elevated Loan Losses,
down 27%. Loan losses up 23% YOY as low-end consumers reach maximum distress. It’s another early recession indicator. We are approaching 2008-09 default levels.
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Peloton Gets Destroyed,
down 10% on Rising Prices and Falling Sales, on last year’s products. Are weight loss drugs driving consumers away from exercise? Peloton Interactive Inc. announced an overhaul of its hardware lineup and raised prices, causing its shares to fall. New products include updated versions of the Bike, Tread, and Row, with features such as a Swivel Screen, faster chips, and improved audio.
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US Dollar Faces a Prolonged Decline,
off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts. With a government shutdown, the “sell America” trade is back on, too. Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXD), (FXC), and (EEM).
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US Manufacturing Recovers Slightly.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 last month from 48.7 in August. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI remained below a reading of 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
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September 30, 2025
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JOLTS Job Openings Up Slightly,
at 7.22 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed the 7.2 million openings reported for July and came in above the market expectation of 7.2 million. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million," the BLS noted in its press release. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
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S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index Rose Slightly,
in July at 1.8%YOY, the smallest gain since July 2023. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities (6.4%, followed by Chicago (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.5%). By contrast, several Sun Belt and West Coast markets that were recently red-hot are now faring far worse. Tampa home prices are down -2.8% YOY– the weakest of all 20 cities – and Phoenix has slipped to –0.9%.
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Chicago PMI Comes in Weak at 40.2,
the 22nd consecutive reading below 50. Since the index's neutral point is 50, a reading further below 50 suggests a faster pace of decline. This weak reading is considered a red flag for the broader U.S. economy, as the Chicago PMI is often a bellwether for national manufacturing health.
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Marijuana Stocks Go Ballistic
on hints of deregulation from the president. Tilray was up a monster 70%. Tylenol is out, pot is in, go figure.
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Comcast Spins Off CNBC,
to become part of Versant, along with other sports-oriented companies. Versant, which had been called SpinCo until a permanent name was chosen, will own cable networks including USA, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY, and Golf Channel. It will also house digital assets Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass, and SportsEngine. The rest of Comcast's NBCUniversal portfolio, including the broadcast network, Peacock streaming service, Universal Studios, the theme parks, and Bravo, will remain with Comcast. Expect a lot more sports business stories on CNBC.
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