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Will Semiconductors Get Hit Next?
Semiconductor stocks have been a pocket of strength within the technology sector in Q1, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) outperforming the S&P 500 Index by around 7 percentage points year to date. However, semiconductor stocks are now vulnerable to a period of downside leadership in the short term and potentially the long term. Long-term upside momentum waned in March, as shown by a downtick in the monthly MACD histogram. This is the first downtick since the April 2025 low and serves as an indication that the cyclical uptrend in SMH is losing steam.
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Is the Fed About to Raise Interest Rates?
Traders in the futures market shifted the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of 2026 to 52%. It’s the first time the reading has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group. The move comes with global benchmark crude prices topping $110, which, combined with other developments this week, signals inflation is a growing problem.
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The Recession is Here.
Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains. Twin concerns about growth and unemployment have triggered talk of stagflation, a characterization that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has rejected. But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on consumers, and a labor market that, outside of health care, lost hundreds of thousands of jobs last year, has kept concerns elevated.
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Alaska Air Reports Record Loss,
due to rocketing jet fuel prices. Benchmark Brent has soared by about 58% this month, the steepest monthly jump in LSEG data going back to 1988, exceeding gains made during the 1990 Gulf War. The latest oil price spike could become the first real financial stress test for U.S. airlines since the pandemic, with weaker carriers more likely to shrink, borrow, or absorb deeper losses while stronger rivals keep investing and gaining market share. Alaska Air now expects an adjusted first-quarter loss of between $1.5 and $2 per share, compared with its previous estimate of 50 cents to $1.5.
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NVIDIA PE Hits Seven-Year Low,
with the shares plumbing $165. As global stock markets tumble over deepening worries about war in the Middle East, Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, finds itself trading at its cheapest price-to-earnings multiple since before ChatGPT kicked off the AI boom. The steep drop in Nvidia's PE suggests the dominant AI chipmaker's shares may be a bargain, but one tied to risks and uncertainty that have shaken investors' confidence in the so-called AI trade that has driven Wall Street higher in recent years.
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Interest Rate Increase Probability Rises to 30%,
because the next round of inflation reports is likely to be hard to stop. Gasoline prices, the most widely used commodity in the US, have risen by 35% since the last report. The next downside target for the S&P 500 is $6,100, or down 25% from the January high.
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Merger Arbs Cash In on Warner Brothers Deal (WBD)
Shares of Warner Bros. have fallen to around $27, some $4 less than the price Paramount agreed to pay, a signal of diminishing probability of the deal getting done. The wide gap between the stock's price and the deal price may be overdone, creating an attractive opportunity for merger arbitrage, with a potential nearly 30% annualized return if the deal closes. Traders believe the market is underestimating the likelihood of the deal closing, with one strategist estimating the true odds of the deal closing are "in the 90%s", compared to the market's current pricing of "in the 80%s". Paramount Skydance shares have plunged by 45% since they won the deal weeks ago. Oops!
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European borrowing costs hit 15-year highs as investors brace for rate hikes.
Bonds issued by various European countries continued to sell off on Friday, deepening a rout that has been near-continuous since the U.S.-Iran war began. French and German 10-year bond yields hit their highest since 2011 this week, while bonds issued by various other eurozone economies also sold off sharply. Regional officials and investors are anticipating a rise in inflation across Europe as the Iran war continues to push energy prices higher. European recession, here we come.
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Iran War Wipes out $100 billion from Luxury Stocks.
Shares of LVMH, Hermès, and Ferrari are some of the luxury stocks that have fallen since the start of the Iran War. For investors and luxury companies, the Iran War has highlighted the increasing importance of the Middle East to the global luxury industry and the high-net-worth economy. Dubai in the United Arab Emirates has been the biggest driver of growth in recent years, and the Middle East tensions come at a critical time in the luxury industry.
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Consumer Sentiment Crashes,
as war-weary Americans cut back spending. Consumer sentiment index falls to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February. Twelve-month inflation expectations jump to 3.8% from 3.4%. It’s another nail in the coffin for the US economy.
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Europe is Headed into Recession,
as LNG supplies dry up. Economic activity in the euro zone slowed sharply in March, as the S&P Flash PMI data showed Tuesday. Economists warn that stagflation — high inflation and stalling growth — is facing the region because of the Iran war. Europe was much more dependent on Persian Gulf energy supplies. Expect a spillover to the US, as the Continent is the largest US export market.
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Private Credit Withdrawal Demands Explode,
taking the shares of Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BLK), and Ares Management (ARES). It’s the end of an asset class. Firms are blocking investors from getting even half of the money they wanted out of their funds, a sign of mounting strain in the $1.8 trillion market. Glad I never touched the area, despite many invitations to do so. I knew it would end in tears.
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Circle Dives 29%
as investors reacted to the latest version of a bill known as the Clarity Act. The proposed legislation could ban stablecoin issuers from paying yield to customers just for holding the assets. Earning yield, usually in the form of rewards, on stablecoins like Circle’s USDC and others, is a key incentive for users to hold the coins – similar to the interest earned on cash sitting in a bank account. Avoid (CRCL).
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Straits of Hormuz Will Remain Closed for Months,
says the Kalshi Betting site. Odds that tanker traffic in the Straits will return to normal before April 15 are below 25% on Kalshi. By June 1, however, odds shorten to more than 67%, and by July 1 to 76%. That means 90 supertankers a day, worth $500 million each, with cargo, plus 30 container ships, are barred from commerce every day. I think these numbers are very optimistic.
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Home Flipping at Six-Year Low,
defined as homes that were bought and sold in the same year, is down 4% YOY. It was 7% of all homes sold in 2025. The return on investment has fallen from 32% to 25%, the lowest since the Great Recession in 2008. The peak was 50%. Tariffs were a major problem, raising prices on everything. No more Chinese cabinets.
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Natural Gas Prices Soar by 30%,
after Qatar’s main export facility takes a direct hit. US signals may lift sanctions on some Iranian oil, after Brent crude rose as high as $119 a barrel. Qatar says strikes took out almost a fifth of its LNG output capacity. Tehran vows further retaliation for Israeli attack on South Pars gas field. Prices of metals like gold and aluminum plunge, stocks continue to slide.
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Interest Rates Soar,
as the bond market begins pricing in no rate cuts in 2026 and possibly some rate rises. Iran war-driven inflation is the reason, with US gasoline prices rising by the day. Ten-Year US Treasury Yields topped 4.33% on their way to 4.50%.
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Gold Crashes 15% in a Week,
as global investors rush to global “Risk Off” like 90-day T-bills. The moves in gold and silver come amid broader risk-off sentiment, which has seen global equities and government bonds fall in tandem. European stocks moved sharply lower in early trade. Investors are monitoring the ongoing U.S.-Iran war as the conflict heads toward its third week. The war is fueling concerns about an energy shock that will add inflationary pressure to economies across the globe. Oil and gas prices spiked on Tuesday after energy facilities in Iran and Qatar were hit by strikes.
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Micron (MU) Earnings Explode,
but the shares fall 4% as part of a global panic. EO Sanjay Mehrotra told CNBC on Thursday that the memory chip supply crunch is so tight that the company can only get its key customers a fraction of what they need. Micron nearly tripled revenue in the latest quarter as results sailed past analysts’ estimates. Micron stock is up more than 350% in the past year, thanks to a memory supply shortage driven by surging demand for Nvidia's AI chips.
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New Home Sales Plunge,
in January. Sales of newly built homes dropped 17.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 587,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That is the slowest pace since 2022. Housing analysts had been expecting a much smaller decline. Sales were also 11.3% lower than in January 2025, according to the U.S. Census, which is still delayed in its reporting due to last year's government shutdown. December sales were also revised lower.
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Inflation Explodes,
with the PPI up 0.7% in February. And this is before the war started. US wholesale inflation unexpectedly accelerated in February from a month earlier, reflecting higher costs for goods and services. The producer price index rose 0.7% after a 0.5% gain in the prior month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out on Wednesday. An underlying gauge of wholesale inflation that excludes food and energy increased 0.5%.
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Mortgage Rates Hit New 2026 High.
The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage rose 11 basis points to 6.30% in the week ended March 13, following a similar advance at the week before, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The combined two-week move was the largest since April. Rates on five-year adjustable mortgages soared nearly 40 basis points last week, the most since the start of 2024. The increase in home-financing costs coincides with a sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield as the Iran war sparks concerns about greater inflation pressures.
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Nvidia has $1 Trillion in Blackwell Chip Orders Through 2027.
CEO Jensen Huang on Tuesday pointed to a fast-rising AI project called OpenClaw as a major step forward in how people interact with artificial intelligence. OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots. Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal input from users.
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Helium Shortage Threatens Chip Supply,
with much of the world's supply trapped in the Persian Gulf. Semiconductor firms in Malaysia are monitoring risks from disruptions to helium supplies due to the Iran War, though the situation has not caused any operational interruptions so far, an industry executive told Reuters. Helium prices have risen sharply due to the disruption of natural gas processing in Qatar by the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Helium - critical for industries such as semiconductors and medical imaging - is a byproduct of LNG processing, and any slowdown in output is expected to affect global supplies.
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