Archive
Hot Tips
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Next Year Looks to be a Poor One for the Bond Market,
says the trillion-dollar money manager BlackRock (BLK). Some $10 trillion in government financing may get crowded out by another $1 trillion in AI borrowing by the Magnificent Seven, which many investors regard as better credit. The Treasury will try to head off the high interest rates this will bring by flooding the money supply.
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Bitcoin Finally has a Good Day,
up $6,000 to $91,000. But how long will it last? Stocks and crypto have been joined at the hip since October. Bitcoin treasury stock Strategy (MSTR) has lost 66% since July and all of its premium relative to its underlying holdings. But sentiment remains bearish, with positions in the Bitcoin derivatives markets suggesting that traders are bracing for another big drop. Was yesterday the final washout or is it still ahead of us? Nobody knows.
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Alphabet is the Clear AI Winner,
and its lead is increasing. Alphabet’s stock gained almost 70% over the past 12 months, reaching a record high, with half the gain from P/E multiple expansion and half from earnings growth. Despite increased spending, Alphabet expanded third-quarter pretax profit margins by seven percentage points and grew pretax profit by 39%. Alphabet’s new Gemini 3 AI model, launched recently, includes tools like Deep Think and generative user interfaces, demonstrating its competitive AI position. Buy (GOOGL) on dips.
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Ford Sales Fall in November.
Demand for electric vehicles has taken a hit after the government ended the $7,500 tax credits for new EV purchases in October. The automaker also had to contend with the impact of a fire at one of the plants of a key aluminum supplier, hitting production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup. Sales of Ford's EVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning, were down about 61% to 4,247 vehicles in November from last year.
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Boeing Could Double from Here,
says Rothschild & Co, a UK broker. Still, the revised objective implies potential 37% upside ahead for the stock, based on Boeing's Monday close. More optimistically, Brochet’s 2030 sum-of-the-parts valuation and price-to-cash-flow ratio could translate into even more outperformance ahead.
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Mad Hedge Black Friday Sale.
Please take advantage of our once-a-year Mad Hedge Black Friday event. Get our market-beating Global Trading Dispatch service for just $897 for six months. We have made a profit of +61% so far in 2025, with no down months, have you? Offer valid for today only. To take advantage of this incredible offer, please click here.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI Comes in at 48.5,
a five-month low. The economy is clearly slowing. In the meantime, long-term interest rates are soaring, with the ten-year US Treasury yield. The data remain contradictory and choppy, like they’re trying to find their way in the fog.
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Black Friday Sales Come in Hot,
according to Visa. Brick and mortar sales were up 4.1% while online sales jumped a massive 10.4%. People are hungry for deals as their real income declines.
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Strategy Dives 10%,
on news, their dividend will be cut, and they are selling shares. The company is creating a $1 billion fund to backstop the dividend. Bitcoin was down 6.6% at about $84,500, sharply lower than its highs above $100,000 at the start of November. Strategy, which holds around 650,000 Bitcoin, is widely seen as a leveraged proxy for the cryptocurrency, causing its stock to move in tandem with Bitcoin’s fluctuations.
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Silver Hits New All-Time High,
at $56 an ounce, topping the old 1980 Bunker Hunt High of $50. It’s a strong bet in favor of an interest rate cut at the December 10 Fed meeting next week. The Bitcoin crash is also driving traders into other “flight to safety” assets. Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion, and infrastructure challenges.
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Mad Hedge Black Friday Sale.
Please take advantage of our once-a-year Mad Hedge Black Friday event. Get our market-beating Global Trading Dispatch service for just $897 for six months. We have made a profit of +61% so far in 2025, with no down months, have you? Offer valid for today only. To take advantage of this incredible offer, please click here.
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Mad Hedge Hits 61% Profit in 2025.
That takes our average annualized return for 18 years to a sky-high +50.82% compared to only +27.49% for the S&P 500. Our gain since inception is +812.92. The big winners this year? Gold (GLD), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Palantir (PLTR).
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CME Crashes on Data Center Failure.
A data center in Aurora, Illinois that serves as the primary hub of digital operations for CME Group Inc. experienced a malfunction in its cooling system, taking down virtually all CME futures and options trading platforms. The facility, which is operated by CyrusOne, is a critical piece of infrastructure to global markets, with at least $25 quadrillion of notional trade volume passing through it every day. The incident has raised questions about the design of the cooling system and the disaster recovery plans in place, with experts noting that data centers of this type typically have redundancy to avoid such problems with power and cooling. A preview of our future?
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2026 will be a Blowout Year for Copper.
Costas Bintas, the high-profile head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, Ltd., has renewed his bullish prediction for copper prices as he warned that a rush to ship metal to the US risks draining the rest of the world’s inventories. Traders have been ramping up shipments to the US in recent weeks to once again capitalize on a big premium for metal on New York’s Comex exchange, fueled by ongoing uncertainty about the potential for future tariffs. Buy (FCX) on dips.
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US Dollar Dives as Fed Cut Looms.
The U.S. dollar headed for its steepest weekly drop in four months on Thursday as investors bet on further monetary easing. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.05% at 99.58, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. It is currently down 0.60% on a weekly basis.
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Fed Beige Book Comes in Unchanged.
The high-end consumer is strong, and the low end is suffering. Food assistance requests are soaring as unemployment increases. AI is replacing entry-level positions, curbing new hiring. Health insurance costs are increasing. Tariffs are crushing margins at small companies.
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Chicago Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Crashes
to 36.4. The index has been recessionary for two years now. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in November 2025 from 43.8 in the prior month and against market estimates of 44.3. This was the 24th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024. The sub-indexes of new orders, production and employment all declined. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries went up.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6,000,
to 216,000. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
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US Oil Rigs Count Hit Four Year Low,
U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, with oil rigs dropping to a four-year low, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Wednesday.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 10 to 544 in the week to November 26, the lowest since September.
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Bitcoin May Remain Weak Until Year End.
The declines come amid liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions, with traders pulling out of risk-on investments into risk-off assets such as gold due to mixed economic data and worries about valuations in artificial intelligence stocks. Some long-term bitcoin holders are also selling some of their holdings at this time due to a popular, but controversial, belief that the token’s “halving” schedule dictates its trajectory according to predictable four-year cycles. The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur mid-2028, when the number of blocks hits 1,050,000.
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Mad Hedge AI Market Timing Index Hits Seven-month Low at Six,
and the Volatility Index Hit a six-month high at $28, in “STRONG BUY” territory. Many technical services have the market bottoming today or next week, which, because of Thanksgiving, only has 3 ½ trading days. We will likely hit bottom when Bitcoin hits the April low at $77,500 and bounces hard. Bitcoin hit $82,000 last night.
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Some 119,000 Jobs were Gained in September,
but the Unemployment Rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, a 2025 high. That dashed the hope for a Fed interest rate cut in December and prompted a 1,100-point plunge in the Dow Average. Uncertainty is running rampant, increasing market volatility.
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Existing Home Sales Rise 1.2% in October.
Sales of previously owned homes in October rose to 4.1 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were up 1.7% year over year. The inventory of homes for sale fell to 1.52 million units, down 0.7% from September, although still nearly 11% higher than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, there is a 4.4-month supply, still considered lean.
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California Pizza Kitchen Goes Private.
It has been acquired by an investor group led by Consortium Brand Partners and including Todd Boehly's investment firm Eldridge Industries, for under $300 million. The investment represents an opening foray into the restaurant category for Consortium Brand Partners, which owns activewear brand Outdoor Voices, home decor company Jonathan Adler, and lifestyle brand Draper James, which was founded by actress Reese Witherspoon.
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S&P Global US Services Flash PMI Comes in Warm at 54.8,
a four-month high. Manufacturing came in slightly weak. Business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month in November, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. Confidence in the year ahead outlook also improved markedly, notably reflecting reduced worries over the political environment and hopes for increased policy support to business.
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