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Hot Tips
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Netflix Buys Warner Brothers for $72 Billion,
bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount, Skydance, and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. The blockbuster deal brings together the streaming giant Netflix, which has upended the media industry in recent years, and the storied Warner Bros. film studio, known for its library, including "The Wizard of Oz," the Harry Potter franchise, and the DC comics universe. It will also include the content of HBO Max, including "The Sopranos" and "Game of Thrones." (NFLX) tanked on the news.
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Elon Musk Fined $140 Million by Europe.
Elon Musk’s X social network was slapped with a lower-than-expected €120 million ($140 million) fine for violating the European Union’s controversial content-moderation law, in a move still set to raise tensions with the White House over free speech and tech regulation.
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Consumer Sentiment Improves.
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 53.3 this month from a final reading of 51.0 in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 52.
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Bonds See Worst Week in Six Months,
discounting record borrowings next year by the federal government and AI companies. Ten-year US Treasury yields hit 4.14%. The real estate recovery is forestalled once again.
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Core PCE Decelerates for the first Time Since April.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge slowed down on an annual basis for the first time since April, BEA data for September showed. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at a 2.8% annual pace in September, a deceleration from August's 2.9% rate. Monthly core inflation came in at 0.2%, in line with August’s numbers.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Dramatically to 191,000,
a 3-year low. It’s most likely a statistical error, but it also coincides with the end of the government shutdown and the run-up to the Christmas selling season. Interest rates spiked up on the news. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics operating at 20% of its regular staff, the quality of the data is going to degrade.
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Layoffs Continue Unabated.
Layoffs announced by U.S. employers fell sharply in November, but hiring intentions continued to lag as they navigated an uncertain economic environment against the backdrop of tariffs on imports and slowing demand. Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday that planned job cuts declined to 71,321 last month from October. They were, however, 24% higher compared to the same period last year, and November's tally was the largest for the month since 2022.
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Snowflake Dives on Weak Forecast.
(SNOW) shares slumped 8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the cloud data analytics company forecast slower product revenue growth for the fourth quarter, partly hit by discounts offered on the large, long-term deals.
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US Dollar Down for 10th Straight Day,
as Fed interest rate cuts loom, thanks to the continuing dire jobs data. Investors have also been weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts.
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Costco is Coming off the Bottom,
after a dire six months. Costco’s fiscal first-quarter sales rose 8.2% to $65.98 billion, excluding membership fees, with comparable sales up 6.4%. Digitally enabled comparable sales for the quarter increased 20.5%, indicating significant e-commerce growth for Costco. November net sales reached $23.6 billion, an 8.1% year-over-year increase, with comparable foot traffic up 3.8% worldwide. Buy (COST) on dips.
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ADP Loses 32,000 Jobs in November,
almost entirely by small businesses, which are getting wiped out by tariffs. They lost 120,000 jobs. The last four out of six months have been negative. Education gained 23,000. It increases the chances of a Fed interest rate cut next week.
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Apartment Rents are Falling,
as vacancies hit record highs. It’s due to an oversupply of new units and a slowdown in demand, especially from younger renters. This has led to record-high vacancy rates and the fourth consecutive month-over-month rent decline nationally, reaching a median of $1,367 in November 2025, according to Apartment List. The steepest declines have been seen in markets with high levels of new construction, such as some cities in the Sun Belt, while other areas with more limited supply have performed better.
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US Services PMI Comes in Flat.
The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was little changed at 52.6 last month from 52.4 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI slipping to 52.1. Services employment contracts for the sixth month. New orders drop, backlog orders are weak but improving.
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Silver Hits Yet Another New High,
at an incredible $58.65 an ounce. The metal has doubled in 2025 and hit a record high on Wednesday. Supply deficits, a weaker dollar, and concern over the state of the economy have pushed the metal to all-time highs. Silver got its latest boost after ADP reported a surprise decline in private payrolls for November. Buy (SLV) on dips.
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Delta Airlines Loses $200 Million on Government Shutdown,
and the other airlines were hit as well. The airline said the earnings impact would be approximately 25 cents a share for the current quarter. In October, Delta forecast adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.60 to $1.90 a share. Travel demand, however, is still healthy, and bookings are strong going into 2026, Delta reiterated in a securities filing on Wednesday ahead of an industry conference.
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Next Year Looks to be a Poor One for the Bond Market,
says the trillion-dollar money manager BlackRock (BLK). Some $10 trillion in government financing may get crowded out by another $1 trillion in AI borrowing by the Magnificent Seven, which many investors regard as better credit. The Treasury will try to head off the high interest rates this will bring by flooding the money supply.
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Bitcoin Finally has a Good Day,
up $6,000 to $91,000. But how long will it last? Stocks and crypto have been joined at the hip since October. Bitcoin treasury stock Strategy (MSTR) has lost 66% since July and all of its premium relative to its underlying holdings. But sentiment remains bearish, with positions in the Bitcoin derivatives markets suggesting that traders are bracing for another big drop. Was yesterday the final washout or is it still ahead of us? Nobody knows.
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Alphabet is the Clear AI Winner,
and its lead is increasing. Alphabet’s stock gained almost 70% over the past 12 months, reaching a record high, with half the gain from P/E multiple expansion and half from earnings growth. Despite increased spending, Alphabet expanded third-quarter pretax profit margins by seven percentage points and grew pretax profit by 39%. Alphabet’s new Gemini 3 AI model, launched recently, includes tools like Deep Think and generative user interfaces, demonstrating its competitive AI position. Buy (GOOGL) on dips.
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Ford Sales Fall in November.
Demand for electric vehicles has taken a hit after the government ended the $7,500 tax credits for new EV purchases in October. The automaker also had to contend with the impact of a fire at one of the plants of a key aluminum supplier, hitting production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup. Sales of Ford's EVs, such as the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning, were down about 61% to 4,247 vehicles in November from last year.
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Boeing Could Double from Here,
says Rothschild & Co, a UK broker. Still, the revised objective implies potential 37% upside ahead for the stock, based on Boeing's Monday close. More optimistically, Brochet’s 2030 sum-of-the-parts valuation and price-to-cash-flow ratio could translate into even more outperformance ahead.
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Mad Hedge Black Friday Sale.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI Comes in at 48.5,
a five-month low. The economy is clearly slowing. In the meantime, long-term interest rates are soaring, with the ten-year US Treasury yield. The data remain contradictory and choppy, like they’re trying to find their way in the fog.
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Black Friday Sales Come in Hot,
according to Visa. Brick and mortar sales were up 4.1% while online sales jumped a massive 10.4%. People are hungry for deals as their real income declines.
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Strategy Dives 10%,
on news, their dividend will be cut, and they are selling shares. The company is creating a $1 billion fund to backstop the dividend. Bitcoin was down 6.6% at about $84,500, sharply lower than its highs above $100,000 at the start of November. Strategy, which holds around 650,000 Bitcoin, is widely seen as a leveraged proxy for the cryptocurrency, causing its stock to move in tandem with Bitcoin’s fluctuations.
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Silver Hits New All-Time High,
at $56 an ounce, topping the old 1980 Bunker Hunt High of $50. It’s a strong bet in favor of an interest rate cut at the December 10 Fed meeting next week. The Bitcoin crash is also driving traders into other “flight to safety” assets. Silver mine production has been decreasing for the past ten years, especially in Central and South America, due to mine closures, resource depletion, and infrastructure challenges.
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