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Hot Tips
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Goldman Sachs (GS) Blows Out Earnings,
on record stock trading profits, sending the shares soaring. Goldman's investment banking revenue jumps 25% in Q4. Fees from asset management hit a record of $3.09 billion. Buy (GS) on dips.
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Existing Home Sales Jump 5.1% from November,
to a seasonally adjusted 4.35 million units. Sales were up 1.4% YOY. Inventory stood at 1.18 million, down 18%, up 3.5% YOY to a 3.5-month supply. The median sales price was $05,000. Higher-end sales are selling better.
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Morgan Stanley Surges on Investment Banking Windfall.
Morgan Stanley investment banking revenue surges 47% in Q4, led by debt and M&A. Reported record annual revenue of $70.65 billion, equity trading revenue at new highs. Wealth management reaches $9.3 trillion in AUM, close to the $10 trillion long-term goal. CEO Ted Pick says the bank has excess capital but will be patient in considering acquisitions. Buy (MS) on dips.
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4.5 Social Media Accounts are Closed in Australia,
as an under-16 ban kicks in. Tech companies are protesting that the new law is too draconian. The figures represent the first government data on compliance and suggest platforms are taking significant steps to adhere to a law that could see them fined up to A$49.5 million ($33 million) for non-compliance, but does not hold children or their parents liable.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall,
down 9,000 to 198,000. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the drop was likely due to ongoing challenges adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year. The labor market remains in what economists and policymakers have termed a "low-hire, low-fire" state. Economists say President Donald Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies have reduced both demand for and supply of workers. Businesses are unsure of their staffing needs as they invest heavily in artificial intelligence, which is curbing hiring.
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Silver Tops $92 an Ounce,
sending the miners soaring, as confidence in US monetary policy collapses. In pre-market trade, U.S.-listed shares of Hecla Mining (HL), which owns Greens Creek Mine in Alaska, one of the biggest silver mines in the world — jumped 4.2%. Endeavor Silver was 2.5% higher, while First Majestic Silver was last seen trading up 2.7%. Coeur Mining, the operator of the Rochester mine in Nevada, gained around 2.6%.
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Saks Fifth Avenue Files for Bankruptcy.
The company has been running out of cash and struggling to pay its bills since its acquisition of Neiman Marcus for $2.7 billion in 2024. Saks had struggled to line up bankruptcy financing because some investors were concerned the company would not be able to successfully reorganize. It’s another step towards the end of brick-and-mortar retail. Long a drainer of my wallet, it was where I made a last-minute buy of a white dinner jacket for a Queen Mary 2 Cruise.
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Mortgage Refinance Demand Soars 40%,
after ten-year interest rates briefly fall below 6.0%. Refinance demand, which is most sensitive to daily rate changes, was 128% higher than the same week a year ago.
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CrowdStrike (CRWD) Wins Lawsuit,
over the massive software outage last summer. The Outage crashed 8 million computers, and especially hurt Delta Airlines (DAL). A judge found there was no intent to defraud. The stock dropped 3% on the news.
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US Retails Sales Beat in November,
as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and households increased spending elsewhere. Retail sales rose 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in October, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, are advancing 0.4% after being unchanged as previously reported. The Census Bureau is catching up on data releases after delays caused by the 43-day government shutdown.
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CPI Comes in Soft at 2.7%,
less than expected. With 80% of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employees laid off, cities where data is no longer collected are being marketed at zero. Chinese products are no longer countered where tariffs have caused high price gains. Go to Safeway to learn what the true inflation rate is.
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Canada Bans US Alcohol Imports.
Several Canadian provinces pulled US wine and spirits from stores after President Donald Trump started a trade war, costing American booze-makers millions of dollars in sales, with almost three-quarters of Canadians still supporting the initiative. They are suffering in Tennessee, which has lost most export markets just when they were taking off.
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Delta Falls on Weak International Forecast.
It seems that fighting wars in three countries is putting a dent in airline traffic. I attended a conference in Florida last week, and 30 people couldn’t make it because the airspace over the Caribbean was closed. Those who came early couldn’t get home. Buy (DAL) on dips; it’s a great company.
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October New Home Sales Rise 1.7% YOY.
Inventories were up 1.7% YOY. Median prices fell 3% to $392,000. Housing starts fell 4.6%.
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Weak Japanese Yen is Pushing Nikkei Upward.
Tokyo has returned from holiday with a bang, rising 3% to an all-time peak as investors welcome a weakening yen and the chance of even more aggressive fiscal stimulus. South Korea and Taiwan also hit records, while China scaled a four-year top. Going the other way, the yen hit record lows on the euro and Swiss franc and multi-year troughs on a range of others. The shortening of the yen helped save the dollar's blushes as it climbed to 158.65 and steadied from Monday's wobble.
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Markets Tank on DOJ Criminal Investigation of Fed Governor Jay Powell,
throwing Fed independence out the window. It’s really happening because Powell isn’t lowering interest rates fast enough. Powell was appointed Fed governor by Donald Trump. Good luck finding a new governor when prison time is on the table. Gold (GLD) rose 2% on the news.
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As the US Withdraws, China is Taking Over.
China has become the top provider of capital for new projects around the world, replacing the US. It may be why the Chinese stock market was up 44% last year, and the Chinese Yuan appreciated. Last week, the US resigned from dozens of international organizations. The US has retreated from the international scene except for the three attacks on foreign countries in nine months. Uncertainty reigns supreme.
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Trump to Force 10% Caps on Credit Card Companies,
forcing consumers into the hands of loan sharks, who charge much higher rates. Visa (V), where I was about to issue a trade alert to buy, plunged 5%. Master Card (MA) did the same. American Express (AXP) took an 8% hit.
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Paramount Sues Warner Brothers to Block $82.7 Billion Netflix Deal.
(NFLX) hit a new nine-month low on the news. The David Ellison-led company also said it plans to nominate directors to Warner Bros Discovery's (WBD) board, in one of its most aggressive steps yet to convince shareholders that its hostile $30-per-share cash bid is superior to the $27.75-per-share cash-and-stock offer from Netflix. Avoid (NFLX) for now, even though it is a great company, as it will be stuck in litigation purgatory for a year or two.
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Apple Ties up with Google’s AI to Power an Upgraded Siri.
Apple (AAPL) plans to use a 1.2 trillion-parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Alphabet's Google to help power a revamp of its Siri voice assistant. After an evaluation, the companies are finalizing a deal that would have Apple pay about $1 billion a year for access to Google's technology, the report said. Buy (AAPL) on dips as a big AI announcement is coming.
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US Trade Deficit Hits 15-Year Low.
Tariffs have made imports so expensive that nobody can afford to buy anything anymore. It’s another sign of shrinking standards of living. The US dollar finally caught a bid on the news.
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ADP Comes in Sluggish.
Private sector job creation turned positive in December, though at a bit softer pace than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 41,000 hires for the month, a reversal from the loss of 29,000 in November, providing a positive sign for a labor market that otherwise struggled as 2025 came to a close. Private company payrolls had declined in three of the four months before the December release. It’s further confirmation of a slowing economy.
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Margin Requirements Rise for Gold and Silver,
after the ballistic December performance. Gold is up more than 64% year-to-date, on track for its best annual performance since 1979 and its third straight positive year. The rally has been supported by a multitude of factors, including the impact of US interest rate cuts, tariff tensions, and robust demand from exchange-traded funds and central banks. Silver has far outpaced gold in 2025. The metal, which has endured wild price swings in recent days, is on course for annual gains of nearly 150%. Like gold, this would be silver's best yearly performance since 1979. Silver's price boom has stemmed from a mix of low supply and high demand from India, as well as industrial needs and tariffs. The long-awaited consolidation is here. Avoid (GLD) and (SLV) for the short term.
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California to Raise Taxes on Billionaires,
to offset a billion in funding cuts from Washington. The Billionaire Tax Act, which could be added to the state's general election ballot in November, would impose a one-time tax of 5% on the total wealth of California tax residents whose net worth is $1 billion or more. These people come into the Golden State and leave rich, and this has been going on for decades.
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Weekly Jobless Claims rise 8,000 to 208,000.
Continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.914 million. Worker productivity grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, according to other data from the Labor Department released on Thursday, suggesting a boost from increased artificial intelligence investment was underway. The surge in productivity, which depressed unit labor costs, underscored what economists have termed a jobless economic expansion. It followed on the heels of robust economic growth in the third quarter.
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