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US Consumer Spending Barely Rose in January,
after economic growth was weaker than previously reported at the end of last year, suggesting the economy lost some momentum before the war with Iran. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 0.1% from December, according to data out Friday, and a gauge of underlying inflation favored by the Federal Reserve rose a firm 0.4%. The government also halved its initial estimate of growth in the fourth quarter, when a record-long government shutdown, a slowdown in consumption, and a decline in exports weighed on the economy.
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The World is Running Out of Oil.
Ships that left the Persian Gulf arrive in Asia this week and Europe next week. After that, there is no more. You haven’t seen anything of high prices yet. Even if the war ended tomorrow, it would take a month to restore the oil flow.
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US GDP Growth Gets Revised Down Sharply.
Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025, while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday. GDP, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Recession here we come!
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US Job Openings Barely Moved in January.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose by 396,000 to 6.946 million by the last day of January, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 6.70 million unfilled jobs. The job openings rate increased to 4.2% from 4.0% in December.
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US Consumer Sentiment Plunges.
U.S. consumer sentiment ebbed in early March as war in thttps://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-admin/edit.php?post_status=draft&post_type=posthe Middle East raised gasoline prices and households worried about personal finances, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 this month from a final reading of 56.6 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to 55.0.
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Two Tankers are Burning in the Persian Gulf.
Explosive-laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters. The ships targeted in late-night attacks on Wednesday in the Gulf near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officials told the Reuters news agency. One Iraqi port security source said the Zefyros was flagged in Malta.
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The Private Credit Crisis Spreads.
Investment funds run by big financial firms such as KKR (KKR) and Blue Owl (OWL) have seen their stock prices slide in recent weeks as investors question the quality of the loans the funds have made. Today, Morgan Stanley (MS) gated one of its private credit funds, barring redemptions. Private credit - lending directly to businesses outside the banking system - has ballooned into a $2 trillion industry. But concerns over transparency and lending discipline have rattled confidence.
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New Home Starts Plunge.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 935,000 units in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Data for December was revised lower to show starts rebounding to a rate of 962,000 units instead of the previously estimated 981,000-unit rate.
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Watch Out for That Promised SpaceX Allocation.
New scam SPACs are selling up and collecting cash from investors, promising shares in the upcoming SpaceX IPO. You won’t get the shares….or your money back. Only the company’s original venture capital investors who came in when it looked like the company would go under will get any IPO shares. Their return should be 1,000:1.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Come in Flat Again,
at 213,000. The level of claims is just very low, with the data showing no sign of the layoffs expected in a weakening labor market during the early days of a hypothetical recession.
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EIA Announces Strategic Petroleum Release,
in Europe, a record 400 million barrels. The move pushed down oil for about 15 minutes, which then rallied $7. The decision was unanimous, with several nations outlining their contribution, including Japan, the UK, Germany, France, and South Korea. That’s enough for only 20 days of global supply. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the most important thing for the stability of energy markets remains the resumption of transit via the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil normally flows.
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Underlying US inflation slowed in February
from a month earlier, with the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rising 0.2% from January. Lower prices for used cars and motor vehicle insurance helped keep inflation in check last month, despite higher costs for gasoline and groceries, including fresh vegetables and coffee. The report showed tamer housing costs, with a key metric known as rent of primary residence rising 0.1%, the least in five years, and goods prices, excluding food and energy, barely increasing.
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Airlines are Getting Slammed by Spiking Fuel Prices,
and record long TSA lines. Expect fuel surcharges soon. Jet fuel, the second-largest expense for airlines behind labor, already jumped to as much as $4.11 a gallon in New York on March 5 from a low of $1.92 last May. Avoid all airlines for now.
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Iran War is Threatening AI Build-Out.
Iran's wave of retaliatory attacks hit AWS facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, causing banking, payments, enterprise, and consumer services to experience outages. While the Iran war will likely not see hyperscalers walking away from existing AI infrastructure builds in the region, it could impact future investment in the case of drawn-out hostilities. Data centers were being built in the Middle East because energy was cheap and there were no local NIMBY protests.
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Bonds Collapse,
under the weight of $2 trillion in extra borrowing demanded by the Iran War. Ten-year US Treasury bond yields have jumped 25 basis points in ten days to 4.51% since the war started. Every other class of fixed income is also selling off thanks to the private credit crisis brought to us by the likes of Blackstone (BLK) and Apollo (APO).
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Oil Dives $35,
as markets came back into balance. The Sunday spike to $119 was caused by massive short covering in the oil market by those who were long puts/short calls. There was no one to take the other side of the market during thin trading on Sunday. Oil prices will rise again as long as shipments from the Persian Gulf are closed. Iran gets to decide when that happens.
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Existing Home Sales Rise 1.7%,
in February, to a seasonally adjusted 4.09 million units. There were 1.29 million units for sale in January, up 4.9% YOY. Mortgage rates at 6.0% back then were a big help. Inventories are at 3.8 months. The median sale price was $398,000, up 0.3% YOY.
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Exxon Pulls out Middle East Employees.
Some operations have been scaled back to manage inventory levels as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been challenged, he said. Exxon is a minority partner in oil projects in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Exxon wouldn’t be doing this if it believed the war would be over in three weeks. Another vote for a long war.
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Bitcoin Recovers $70,000,
on a flight to safety bid. Crypto-related stocks also got a lift. Robinhood (HOOD), a digital asset brokerage, rose 2.4% in premarket trading, while Strategy (MSTR)—the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin—rose 3.1%. Crypto has been trying to put in a bottom for months.
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Get Ready to Buy American Airlines,
the most exposed airline to rising fuel prices. American Airlines is attractively priced at 0.2 times price to sales, with analysts projecting over 60% upside. Robust premium and corporate travel demand, coupled with debt reduction below $35 billion in 2026, supports American Airlines. American Airlines projects 2026 earnings between $1.70 and $2.70 per share, with 2027 EPS growth of nearly 30%.
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Oil Hits $119 Overnight,
driven by panic buying by Asian customers who have no alternative. This is the sharpest rise in oil prices in history, and the US oil industry loves it. It’s an all oil stock market all the time now. Everything else is irrelevant. The Dow Average plunged 1,200 points in overnight trading.
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JP Morgan Sees 10% Stock Market Correction,
as the Iran War broadens out. I see at least 20% once we pass the promised five-week deadline. We did go into this war with stock valuations near record highs. A correction would mark a 10% drop in the US benchmark from its peak, implying the S&P 500 would drop to roughly 6,270 points — or roughly 7% lower than where the index closed on Friday.
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TSA Waiting Lines Extend Past Hours,
as many agents miss their first paycheck as a result of the Homeland Security Budget Shutdown. It’s all happening during the peak spring travel season. Expect airlines' profits to crater. Avoid (DAL), (UAL), and (AA). Close call. I just got home from Mexico yesterday.
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There is No Safe Haven in Bonds,
with yields climbing worldwide on oil-driven inflation fears. Global government bond markets were headed for one of their worst weekly losses in months, on concerns that war in the Middle East will renew upward pressure on inflation and force more hawkish pivots from central banks. Crude oil was set on Friday for its strongest weekly gain since the extreme volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, as conflict halted shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Ten-year US Treasury yields have backed up 17 basis points since the war started.
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The Mag 7 has become the Lag 7,
as investors dump big tech stocks with both hands. The group may still do OK, and some of the individual stocks may even kill it, but the slam-dunk, set-it-and-forget-it, run-circles-around-the-market era of the Mag Seven is gone with the wind. If and when the Iran War ends, you want to pile back into cheap domestic industrial stocks and financials.
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