Archive
Hot Tips
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Meta Makes Major Investment in AMD,
sending the shares soaring. Meta Platforms Inc. will deploy data center gear based on processors from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. in a deal worth “double-digit billions” of dollars per gigawatt. Meta will buy AMD chips and computers designed to run artificial intelligence models over a five-year stretch, beginning in the second half of 2026, and will receive warrants to buy 160 million AMD shares. The agreement is part of Meta's efforts to "aggressively front-load" computing capacity, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg making AI the company's top priority and pledging to devote hundreds of billions of dollars to the effort.
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AI May Wipe Out Large Swaths of the White-Collar Industry,
causing investors to dump shares in a broad range of sectors. The so-called AI scare trade has become a dominant theme for stocks, with selling spreading beyond software to hit insurance brokers, private credit, and even real estate services. The flight is one of several shifts beneath the surface of a US market that is little changed in 2026 after years of tech-led gains.
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Bitcoin is Headed for New Lows,
breaking $63,000 overnight. A new Golden Age of short selling has begun, with Strategy (MSTR) the most shorted stock in the world, with 12.31% of the float on loan for selling. The company’s strategy depended on an endless supply of unquestioning retail buyers, which has recently evaporated.
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There Will be a Financial Crisis in 2036,
or so says the bond market. longer-term 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields show more modest declines, indicating growing concerns about future federal deficits, despite three Fed interest rate cuts last year. The 10y10y forward rate, now 5.62273%, has risen 0.535 percentage points, signaling increasing long-term fiscal risk and debt concerns. Avoid all government bonds (TLT).
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The US is Looking at its First Population Decline.
In the year prior to July 1, 2025, the US Census reported this week that the population grew by only 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, its lowest growth since the pandemic. The main cause for the significant slowdown was a collapse in net migration to 1.3 million from a peak of 2.7 million in the year prior to July 2024. In that most recent period, there were 519,000 more births than deaths, according to the new Census figures. That surplus is shrinking, however. By 2030, it’s likely to disappear altogether, making the US entirely dependent on immigration for population growth. Mass deportation of immigrants are a major cause. So are the $25,000 a year child costs. Young couples can’t afford to have kids. No new kids now means no consumers or economic growth in 20 years.
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Supreme Court Tariff Decision May be Out on Friday.
If not this Friday, then certainly the next one. If they rule against tariffs, the US economy will be put through a meat grinder once again, and stocks will dive. The US national debt will rocket. Oh, and you, the consumer, are owed $500 million.
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US Trade Deficit Explodes.
The U.S. trade deficit swelled in December, closing out a year in which the imbalance was essentially unchanged despite efforts by the Trump administration to close the wide gap. Closing out a tumultuous year in the global marketplace, the goods and services in December totaled $70.3 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That marked an increase of $17.3 billion from November and was well above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of $55.5 billion.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with a stabilizing labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,0000 for the week ended February 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Last week's drop marked a significant decline in claims since they jumped to 232,000 at the end of January.
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Solar Abandons Silver,
as costs soar. Copper is much cheaper. Solar panel producers are intensifying efforts to replace silver with alternatives such as copper after silver rallied 130% over the past year, squeezing margins already under pressure from production overcapacity, particularly in China. Silver is the greatest contributor to the increased cost of manufacturing solar panels. The cost of solar panels has increased 7-15% over the last 12 months.
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Pending Home Sales Dive.
Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in January, with realtors blaming low housing inventory. The pending home sales index dropped 0.8% last month to 70.9, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 1.3%.
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AI Worries Still Drag on the Market.
US equity futures declined as artificial-intelligence concerns damped sentiment, with Wall Street poised to resume trading after a holiday break. US Treasuries (TLT) edged higher, and gold slid. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index retreated 0.8%, and those on the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% as all members of the Magnificent Seven US tech stocks declined in premarket trading. A gauge of perceived risk in US high-grade corporate credit reached its highest since Nov. 25. Spot gold dropped toward $4,900 an ounce.
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Silver Dives 2%.
Silver and gold fell in early premarket trading on Tuesday as investors awaited delayed economic data, with little geopolitical news during the holiday-shortened week. Silver ETFs, including ProShares Ultra Silver, were down 7% in premarket, while iShares Silver Trust and ABRDN physical silver fell just over 3%. This is probably the dip you buy, as everything else looks terrible.
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Oil Rises 1%,
as Iran-US nuclear talks continue. Why are we having nuclear talks when the US destroyed all its weapons-grade uranium in a bombing raid? All oil rallies are temporary as massive supply will hit the market on a Venezuela output recovery and a Ukraine peace deal. Avoid all oil plays.
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Airbnb Jumps 5%,
after it became the latest travel company to point to resilient premium demand as budget-conscious customers pull back. Hotel operators Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT), and airlines such as United (UAL) and Delta (DAL) are banking on resilient demand from high-end travelers in 2026, a trend that reflects a worsening K-shaped economy in the U.S.
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Why has Volatility Suddenly Increased?
About 30% of S&P 500 stocks moved over 20% in three months, double the 15% average, despite low market volatility. AI demand boosts chip makers, while software stocks have crashed; commodity miners and some consumer discretionary stocks also have fallen. Increased inflows into hedge funds, with $3.5 billion in stock purchases this year, are exacerbating extreme stock price movements.
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Gold Surpasses Tech Stock Value for the First Time.
All the gold in the world is now worth $42 trillion, while tech stocks are worth only $40 trillion. Which would you rather buy more of as an asset protection strategy? I vote for the barbarous relic.
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CBO Raises National Debt Projection by $1.4 Trillion,
over 10 years. That takes the national debt from 101% to 120% of GTD. The deficit will be 5.6% of GDP in 2026. Job growth was zero in 2025, the worst since the Pandemic and the Great Recession before that. That is not what strong economies are made of.
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Existing Home Sales Dive 8.4%,
in January, the worst report in three years. Inventories are up 3.4% YOY to a 3.7-month supply. The median home price is $396,800. It’s taking 46 days to sell a house versus 41 days a year ago. First-time buyers jumped from 28% to 31%. The West saw the biggest drop.
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Nuveen Buys the UK’s Schroeders for $13.5 Billion.
The deal creates a group with $2.5 trillion in assets under management. Schroders is valued at 612 pence per share, and the stock surges 29%. Mid-sized asset managers struggle vs bigger rivals. Mid-sized active stock-picking asset managers in Europe, such as Schroders, are confronting the need to combine to compete with larger U.S. rivals like BlackRock (BLK) and Vanguard that sell cheaper index trackers and other passive products. Recent multi-billion dollar deals include BNP Paribas's 2025 AXA’s fund arm, although other European merger negotiations have broken down.
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The Waldorf Astoria is for Sale,
by its Chinese owners, looking to bail on America. The Park Avenue landmark reopened in November after an 8-year renovation from a 1,400-room hotel to 375 hotel guest rooms and 372 residences. The transformation was five years behind schedule and more than $1 billion over the initial budget. My late wife was the international sales manager at the Waldorf when business with Japan was booming.
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A Delayed Nonfarm Payroll for January comes in at 130,000,
down 50% YOY, headline unemployment rate at 4.3%. The January data reinforces Federal Reserve officials’ inclination to keep interest rates on hold for now, with many traders pushing out their timeline for the next rate cut to July from June.
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Buy the Gold Pullback,
says Wells Fargo, expecting the bull market to resume soon. The recent pullback appears to be a healthy correction after an exceptionally strong run. Gold also traded over 30% above its 200-day moving average from January 22 to January 29, a difficult level to maintain and one that has often triggered profit-taking. A period of consolidation following such rapid gains.
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Tariffs Cost States $200 Billion.
New data shows that from March 2025, when the Trump administration began implementing wide-ranging tariffs, through last November, tariff bills paid across U.S. states reached the $200 billion mark collectively, and top states in the 2026 midterm election races paid over $134 billion.
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Crypto Speculation May be Dead,
says whale Michael Novogratz. Bitcoin is down more than 21% so far this year, and nearly 50% from its peak in October. Precious Metals are stealing all the thunder. It’s going to be real-world assets with much lower returns. Avoid all crypto.
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Lyft Shares Dive 18%,
on weak ride growth. Uber has eaten their lunch. Over the past two years, the ride-hailing platform has made progress on profitability and cash flow, but analysts say the next phase of its turnaround will depend on executing more complex growth initiatives to sustain ride momentum against Uber's scale. Avoid (LYFT).
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