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Hot Tips

  • January 11, 2021

    1. The US has 3 Million Fewer Jobs Than When Trump Took Office

      four years ago. It’s the worst performance since Herbert Hoover took office in 1928. That’s exactly what I predicted back in 2016. Up to March 2020, we also had a zero return in the stock market, which only started to improve when Biden took the lead in the primaries in May. In the meantime, the National Debt soared from $20 trillion to $28 trillion and it is still soaring. Over 100% of US growth during the Trump administration has been borrowed from the future on credit. It’s not a way to run a country.

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    2. 5.2% of all US Mortgages Subject to Covid-19 Bailout,

      or 2.74 million homes. That’s actually a decline from the worst levels of 2020. Mass foreclosures will ensue shortly. This time, banks will have no problem disposing properties into a red-hot “bidding wars” in real estate market.

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    3. Stock Soars 12X by Accident,

      after an Elon Musk recommendation. Elon mentioned “Signal” on Twitter, referring to the nonprofit encrypted messaging app. Day traders thought he meant Signal Advance, an OTC stock that rocketed from $0.60 to $7.19. I’ve seen this happen before and it shows how hot the market is. Shorting opportunity?

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    4. Semiconductor Shortage Slows Auto Industry,

      with Toyota, Ford, and Fiat cutting back production. It’s a global problem. Modern cars use more than 100 chips each and are becoming more apps than hardware. I’ve been predicting this for a year, and the problem will continue as it takes billions of dollars and a year to ramp up production. Buy the daylights out of (NVDA), (AMD), and (MU).

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    5. Twitter Dives 2% on Permanent Trump Suspension.

      There go 90 million followers down the drain. However, they have nowhere else to go as all social media platforms have banned the president for inciting violence and insurrection. Avoid (TWTR).

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  • January 8, 2021

    1. Nonfarm Payroll Comes in at a loss of 140,000,

      giving more credence to the Q1 double-dip scenario and far worse than expected. It’s the first loss since April. The headline Unemployment Rate came in unchanged at 6.7%, Leisure & Hospitality lost a mind-blowing 498,000 and an incredible 3.9 million since January. Private Education lost 63,000 and Government 45,000. Professional & Business Services gained 161,000. The real U-6 Unemployment Rate is a very high 11.6%.

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    2. Boeing Hit with $2.5 Billion Fine,

      for criminal conspiracy in concealing information stemming from the 737 MAX crashes, which killed 346. Unfortunately, companies don’t go to jail, only shareholders get punished. I’d be buying (BA) on the dip. China is about to come in as a major buyer of their planes to end the trade war. The old Boeing should resurrect.

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    3. The Bond Crash Has Only Just Begun,

      with the (TLT) down $8 on the week. The risk/reward is the worst of any financial asset anywhere. I am maintaining my triple short position. Massive government borrowing will be a death knell for fixed income investors.

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    4. Bitcoin Drops $2,000,

      signaling the onset of a potential few days of “RISK OFF” in all asset classes. It’s been a wild week. Buy everything on the dip. The market dropping only 400 points on the first-ever American insurrection and coup d’état is a huge “BUY” signal. Buy when there is blood in the streets, except for this time, the blood is real and flowing. I think I’m going to bed early tonight.

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    5. Elon Musk is Now the Richest Man in the World,

      with Tesla shares at $825, up 12X from the March lows. Elon will become the first trillionaire, as Tesla probably has another 12X move in it. They have another dozen disruptive technologies which you’ve probably never heard of.

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  • January 7, 2021

    1. Sacking of the Capital Shuts Down Markets.

      After the initial crash, markets flatlined as the entire country dropped what they were doing and glued themselves to a TV with their jaws dropped. The Dow dove 300 points, bonds and the US dollar stabilized, Tesla and oil took big hits, and gold and silver took off. Gunfights broke out on the house floor and explosive devices planted. Trump incited his followings to attack the capitol and they did exactly that. Washington DC is now subject to a 6:00 PM curfew until after January 21 and the city is surrounded by National Guard. Is this the beginning of the 2024 presidential election? It’s the worst day in Washington since the British burned it in 1814. Watch for more market downside as uncertainty reigns.

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    2. The Worst May Not Be Over in Washington.

      Trump is still president for 13 days and there appears no limit to what he will do to stay in office. Mass resignations have ensued at the White House. The Republican brand has been destroyed for a generation, split between violent pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions. There will be a pall hanging over all financial markets until Trump leaves office. Impeachment or resignation may follow soon. I am running a fully hedged market-neutral 50% long/50% short trading book until Trump is gone. The National Guard heading to DC is not a “BUY” signal….yet. The political risk is just too high. These are unprecedented times.

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    3. ADP Takes a Dive,

      down 125,000 in December, the first decline since April. With new cases at 235,000 on Wednesday and a death rate approaching 4,000 a day, Covid-19 is eating into the private workforce in a major way. All industries lost jobs. America’s great job creation machine has run out of gas, felled by Covid-19. It does not auger well for the Friday Nonfarm Payroll report.

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    4. Weekly Jobless Claim Remain Unchanged,

       at 787,000, seemingly stuck at Depressionary levels. Expect the numbers to rise as Covid-19 takes its toll. 3,700 deaths yesterday, a new record.

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    5. Bitcoin Tops $40,000,

      more than doubling in a month, and exceeded $1 trillion as an asset class. A Biden run economy means more money creation which has to find a home. My friend’s pizza purchase for 8 Bitcoin a decade ago is now worth $320,000. I hope it was good!

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  • January 6, 2021

    1. Storming of Capital Shuts Down Markets.

      After the initial crash, markets flatlined as the entire country dropped what they were doing and glued themselves to a TV. The Dow dove 300 points, bonds and the US dollar stabilized, Tesla and oil took big hits, and gold and silver took off. The electoral college vote has been suspended, and Trump has gone missing. Gunfights broke out on the house floor and explosive devices placed. Trump incited his followers to attack the capitol and they did exactly that. Washington DC is now subject to a 6:00 PM curfew. Is this the beginning of the 2024 presidential election? It’s the worst day in Washington since the British burned it in 1814. Watch for more market downside as uncertainty reigns.

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    2. Democrats Take Georgia,

      giving them Senate control and a blank check on spending for at least two years. My 3X short in bonds soared as the market was crashed. Banks rocket on a 10-basis point rise in interest rates. Infrastructure plays go ballistic. The US dollar fades. Add another couple of percentage points of US GDP growth for 2021.

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    3. Morgan Stanley Raises Tesla Target to $810.

      They are now at one-third of my 2025 target. With three 10X technologies unfolding all at the same time, mass-produced solid-state batteries, autonomous driving, and carbon fiber bodies, even my target may prove conservative. It’s already my best trade of 2021! Buy (TSLA) on dips.

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    4. Saudi Surprise Production cut,

      a million barrels a day, sends oil over $50. But with demand, that week how long can the rally last? The market is entering short-selling territory. I bet you didn’t use much gas today commuting from your bedroom to your home office. Use the rally to unload what energy you have left. Sell the (XLE) on rallies.

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    5. Macy’s Closes 45 More Stores,

      as the company downsizes to near invisibility. Their online presence won’t be enough to offset the losses. The death of legacy bricks and mortar retail accelerates. Avoid (M) like the plague.

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  • January 5, 2021

    1. The Worst Opening Since 2016

      greeted traders with a slap across the face with a wet kipper. Polls for the Georgia Senate swung dramatically in favor of the Democrats over the weekend. Maybe stock prices are just too high? Still, Tesla hit a new all-time high at $745, taking the market cap to $700 billion. That’s more than the entire world’s auto market cap combined.

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    2. The Georgia Senate Elections are Today,

      and the outcome will determine the path of the economy and the stock market for the next two years. Some 40% of registered citizens voted early, some 3 million, strongly favoring Democrats. Total vote was 4 million in November. It’s the cities versus rural counties writ large. Was the blue win in November the beginning of a new trend, or a one-hit wonder? Did Trump just blow it for Republicans? The polls are too close to call. Your retirement funds depend on the answer.

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    3. Bonds Will Crash if Biden Wins Georgia.

      That’s what an extra $6 trillion in government borrowing will do. I am already double short the bond market and will go to a 3X or 4X weighting on a Democratic win. Inflation is coming back from the grave and gold is hot again. Sell (TLT) on rallies.

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    4. The Safe Haven is Back,

      with gold hitting a two-month high. Silver went up double. A one-day 10% plunge in bubblicious Bitcoin was a major factor. US bond market negative real yields hit an all-time high, eliminating the opportunity cost of zero yielding precious metals. This rally will last months. Buy (GLD), (SLV), and (WPM) on dips.

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    5. Where is Jack Ma?

      Alibaba (BABA) investors would love to know. No one has seen him since he made a controversial speech that highly annoyed the Beijing government. Is he getting re-educated, or is he a recent organ donor?

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