Archive

Hot Tips

  • April 15, 2021

    1. Retail Sales Explode in March,

      up a staggering 9.8%. New spending at bars and restaurants were a major factor, and we haven’t even started yet! Stocks soar to new highs, and the bond market takes off like a scalded chimp, taking ten-year US Treasury yields below 1.57%. It confirms my thesis that when we see actual real numbers of an unprecedented recovery we get another new leg in the bull market.

      Find Out More

    2. Weekly Jobless Claims Collapse to 576,000,

      the lowest of 2021. That down a massive 193,000 jobs from the previous week. Herd immunity is here! Keep getting those shots!

      Find Out More

    3. Homebuilder Confidence Rises

      a scant one point in April despite soaring lumber prices and labor shortages. Strong demand for new homes continues unabated.

      Find Out More

    4. Citigroup Announces Record Profits,

      largely of the back of stock trading profits and SPAC underwriting. Net incomes rocketed to $7.94 billion. The bank said it was bailing on 13 money-losing markets in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

      Find Out More

    5. Chip Shortage Holds Back Auto Recovery,

      and could last for years, says the VW CEO. Consumer demand is picking up simultaneously around the world across the entire range of semiconductors, making matters worse.

      Find Out More


  • April 14, 2021

    1. Coinbase Sets Bitcoin on Fire,

      with its public listing today. I wouldn’t touch it with your money as these things always come out overhyped. Shares are indicated at $360 versus a $250 reference price. Buy it after it drops by half, as I once did with Tesla. The government is looking at Bitcoin as a new revenue source now that all of these huge capital gains get reported.

      Find Out More

    2. VC Round Values Space X at $74 Billion,

      Elon Musk’s rocket company. A company that cuts launch costs by 99% has a very bright future. It’s also handy to have if you want to start a global WIFI satellite network, like Starlink. This will be the hottest IPO of the year….someday.

      Find Out More

    3. JP Morgan Pops on Upside Earnings Surprise,

      with Q1 profits soaring from $2.9 billion a year ago to an eye-popping $14.5 billion. Revenues were up 14% to $33.1 billion. Loan demand is weakening because so many people are getting government money for free. Credit card debts are being paid down.

      Find Out More

    4. Bernie Madoff Dies in Prison,

      at 82 of natural causes. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Investors got back 22% of the $65 billion list through liquidation of Madoff’s assets and tapping other investors who cashed out early. But it took ten years and many committed suicide first, including one of Madoff’s sons. Some investors diverted money from my own hedge fund into Madoff’s because his results were too good to be true.

      Find Out More

    5. Boeing Delivers Second Positive Month of Orders,

      with a net 40.  And that’s with a new electronics problem showing its ugly face. Alaska Air (ALK) and United (UAL) are the two big buyers. Keep buying (BA) on dips.

      Find Out More


  • April 13, 2021

    1. Tesla is Upgraded to $1,071 per Shares,

      by research firm Canaccord Genuity. The company is transitioning from low-volume high-priced cars to high-volume low-priced cars, as seen in the 47% leaps in sales during Q1. The stationary battery business is booming thanks to a new generation of technology. Tesla is developing an Apple-type brand value in the energy market, which is worth a big premium that competitors can’t match. Tesla has brought a machine gun to a knife fight. Global chip shortages are a risk. The stock jumped $25 on the news.

      Find Out More

    2. Consumer Price Index Comes in Muted,

      at 0.6% in April and 2.6% YOY. The market had been fearing worse, sparking another leg up in technology stocks. Much of the gain was from a jump in gasoline prices, which are now falling. Food prices are also rising.

      Find Out More

    3. NVIDIA is Moving into the CPU Business,

      sending the stock up 6% and crushing Intel. It’s the perfect move at the perfect time, given a worsening global chip shortage and White House focus. The new chips, named “Grace” will work ten times faster than existing ones. (NVDA)’s push into data centers will take the stock a new leg up to all-time highs. Buy (NVDA) on dips.

      Find Out More

    4. Microsoft Buys Nuance for $16 billion,

      a major speech recognition company based in Burlington, Massachusetts. Goodbye keyboard? The really interesting part about this deal is that they paid cash for Nuance, not stock. That means (MST) thinks their stock will go up a lot more in the near future. Keep buying (MSFT) on dips. It’s a giant that just keeps growing.

      Find Out More

    5. Monster US Treasury Auctions to Launch This Week,

      totaling an incredible $271 billion, to finance massive government spending. My short positions here are looking better by the day. If they do this in front of a poor CPI reading, the bond market could crash. Sell all rallies in the (TLT).  

      Find Out More


  • April 12, 2021

    1. One of the Best Earnings Seasons in History Starts This Week,

      with 25% growth expected at 81% beating forecasts. JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) kick off on Wednesday, with the big kahuna, Apple (AAPL) reporting on April 28. Expect stocks to rally until then. It may give us the first hint of the massive stimulus on the economy to come. Q2 and Q3 will be the monster quarters.

      Find Out More

    2. China Fines Alibaba $2.5 Billion,

      ostensibly over antitrust offenses. Such is the price of Jack Ma’s complaints about the Beijing government.  Of course, the Chinese knew this was coming months ago. The stock has plunged 20% since February while the rest of the market was on fire. A huge stop-loss sell from Archegos didn’t help either.

      Find Out More

    3. Equity Funds Pick up a Half Trillion Dollars,

       in five months, more than they attracted over the last 12 years. It’s all rocket fuel for the ongoing market melt-up. With the Volatility Index (VIX) at a one-year low at $17, the best may be yet to come. Equity investors are the most bullish in years.

      Find Out More

    4. Jay Powell Says No Rate Rise this Year,

      and probably much longer, in a 60 Minutes interview Sunday night. Notice how our central bank governor is trying to prop up the stock market almost every day? It seems new wealth creation is a major part of his plan. Who am I to argue?

      Find Out More

    5. Farewell to Prince Charles.

      I met the Prince at a garden party at Buckingham Palace in 1987 as thanks for donating 10,000 pounds to a royal charity (I think it was land mine removal). Next to him in the receiving line were Queen Elizabeth, Prince Charles, and Lady Diana. I used my minute with him to ask about his experience on Royal Navy destroyers during WWII. He seemed flattered that I asked. Phillip was ever the even keel for the royal family for 75 years. He was gracious, pleasant, and relaxed. He will be missed.

      Find Out More


  • April 9, 2021

    1. Jerome Powell Says We’re Not There Yet,

      and while parts of the economy are doing great, there’s a very large group of people who are not. He cited a massive tent city nearby in Washington DC. It is all a daily reassertion of more QE all the time and zero interest rates as far as the eye can see. Stocks rose and the dollar fell on its coming debasement. Buy everything on dips.

      Find Out More

    2. Florida Sues the CDC

      in the permitting cruise lines to resume, in a big political push coming from the right. The irony is that these are anything but American companies, with ships registered in Panama, crew from Russia and the Philippines, and the captain and staff from England. Only the marketing is American. Still, they’ll reopen someday. Buy (RCL), (CCL), and (NCLH) on dips.

      Find Out More

    3. Disneyland in LA to Open April 30,

      after a one-year hiatus.  It’s time to dust off those mouse ears. The last time the Mouse House was closed this long, antiwar protesters took of Tom Sawyer’s Island and raised the Vietcong flag (I was there). Some 10,000 cast members have been recalled. Only 15% capacity will be allowed to California residents only. The new Avengers Campus will open on June 4. The company is about to make back the 25% of revenues it lost last year, but with a much lower cost base. Buy (DIS) on dips.

      Find Out More

    4. Amazon Unionization Effort Fails,

      in Alabama with a 2:1 margin against. It helps that Jeff Bezos voluntarily increase a company-wide minimum wage to $16 an hour, double the federal rate. The unions will keep coming back every year but will keep failing. Buy (AMZN) on dips.

      Find Out More

    5. Was that Inflation?

      The Producer Price Index jumped by 1.0% in March compared to an expected 0.40%. It’s the second hot month in a row. Basically, the price of everything went up. The YOY rate is an astonishing 4.04% a near-decade high. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck….Stocks didn’t like it….for about 15 minutes.

      Find Out More