Archive
Hot Tips
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Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed Governor,
with a full plate. Inflation is at four-year highs and accelerating. But Warch got the job after promising Trump to cut rates. And half the Fed board is already against him, with Powell remaining on board. Better him than me.
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Global Oil Stockpiles Approaching Record Lows.
Inventories were near a decade high at just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February. By the end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels. Inventories will approach record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May if demand remains the same month over month. Billions of barrels in inventory may sound like a lot, but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available without straining the system. The rest is needed to keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates efficiently. Some 7.6 billion barrels are enough to supply global oil demand for only 76 days, and the rate of reserve decline is alarming in the extreme.
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Industrial Production Rises,
as AI spending drags the economy forward, with much of it going nowhere.
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Coal is Booming,
as countries rush to fund gas alternatives. Coal shipments normally slow down in April and May when the heating season in the northern hemisphere nears an end. But in recent months, coal was the largest cargo by volume for medium-sized vessels, with freight rates as much as 50 per cent higher on average in May than in February. Global coal imports this month are expected to be 107mn tonnes, the third-highest monthly figure for May in records that go back to 2017. For any one metric tonne of gas, you can substitute it with two tonnes of coal.
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Some $570 Billion Worth of Classic Cars are Changing Hands.
Some 12 million enthusiast vehicles will transfer to a new generation in the US over the next 15 years in estate plans or inheritances. The market for collectible cars — vehicles desirable for their heritage, performance, and design — has mushroomed over the past two decades. It encompasses more than 43 million vehicles in the US, representing an estimated $1 trillion in total insurable value. When I met the comedian Jay Leno at the Pebble Beach car show, he told me that his portfolio of classic cars has outperformed a portfolio of tech stocks for the last 35 years, and he was right.
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The Bond Market Crashes,
sending ten-year US Treasury bond yields up 15 basis points in a day to 4.61%. Government bond markets tumbled around the world, sending yields surging from Japan to the US on intensifying fears that the war-driven price shock will force central banks to raise interest rates to contain the impact. It looks like the government’s ability to borrow is NOT unlimited after all.
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Today is Jay Powell’s Last Day as Governor of the Federal Reserve.
He handled Trump attacks, a criminal investigation, and a pantomimic and will leave the office as one of the most respected Fed chairmen by both parties. Kevin Warsh takes over on Monday with orders from the president to cut interest rates when the markets are screaming for an increase. It’s no accident that bond markets had their worst day in years the day before he takes off. Warsh has spent the last decade arguing for higher rates, less spending, and a balanced budget. Good luck with that!
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Jeff Bezos Blue Origin Weighs First External Fund Raise,
as part of a push by Jeff Bezos’s rocket venture to hit ambitious launch targets and tap investor appetite boosted by SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering. The company would require outside investment if it were to significantly increase its launch schedule. It would take a lot of capital to achieve the number of rocket launches Blue Origin has targeted — more money than would be available with just one investor.
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Inflation to Hit 6% in Q2.
The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists. Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the first quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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Boeing Scores Order for 200 Jets from China.
The order is just an accumulation of many orders over recent years and had nothing to do with the China visit, which was just a PR exercise. Buy (BA) on tips.
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U.S. Retail Sales Increased,
for a third straight month in April, though part of the rise in receipts was due to soaring inflation amid the war with Iran. Rising price pressures were underscored by other data on Thursday showing imported inflation last month rose at its fastest pace in four years. Larger tax refunds this year, as well as a strong stock market performance, are providing a cushion for households against rampant inflation.
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Business Inventories Soar,
in March, up 0.9%, the worst numbers in four years. Nobody’s buying anything in the retail stores. It’s another pre-recession indicator.
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Ford Rockets on Rumors of an AI Tie-Up.
The shares climbed as much as 10% Thursday in New York, pushing the two-day gain to 25%, the most intraday since March 2020. The move turned Ford’s stock positive for the year. Ford is investing $2 billion to get into the energy storage business, which includes converting a factory in Kentucky from making batteries for electric vehicles to producing large energy cells for the storage business. US demand for grid batteries is expected to double by 2030 to more than 100 gigawatt-hours.
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Business is Booming in California,
as the AI melt-up accelerates. California Governor Gavin Newsom unveiled a revised budget that shows no deficit for this year and next, as the state draws another boost from the technology and artificial-intelligence boom. The budget proposal released Thursday shows revenues that are $16.5 billion higher than projections. That improvement gives Newsom, a Democrat, more room to protect programs popular with the party’s voters as he prepares to leave office after the next election, as a potential contender for the presidency in 2028.
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Cerebras IPO to Open at Double Issue Price.
Shares of Cerebras Systems were indicated to open 90% higher than their IPO price in the U.S. market debut on Thursday, as the chipmaker rides a wave of investor euphoria for companies that are at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom. The firm's IPO is the largest this year and comes as AI-linked stocks push broader markets to record highs despite challenges to global growth stemming from the Middle East conflict. In case you don’t know, Cerberus is the fearsome, multi-headed dog in Greek mythology that guards the entrance to Hades (the Underworld).
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PPI Skyrockets to a Four-Year High.
US wholesale inflation accelerated in April to the fastest pace since 2022 on a war-driven increase in energy prices that’s feeding into higher freight transportation costs. The Producer Price Index rose 6% from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out on Wednesday. A core measure of wholesale inflation that excludes food and energy increased 5.2% from April 2025, the biggest advance in more than three years.
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Canadian Visitors to the US Fell 42% in 2025,
according to the University of Toronto, using phone data. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, took the biggest hit with a 65% hit. The Trump presidency was to blame. The entire travel industry is suffering.
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Nuclear Energy is Booming.
New reactors with new designs mean new uranium mines and new production. The nuclear supply chain is expanding due to factors like geopolitics, geology, and artificial intelligence, with new uranium mines and factories being developed to meet growing energy needs. Buy (CCJ) and (VSTR) on dips.
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US Dollar Jumps,
on the red-hot PPI, which will certainly lead to higher interest rates. The Euro has dropped to $1.17 to the US dollar. With inflation now officially out of control, expect high interest rates and a US dollar rally. Finally, I can afford my Europe trip.
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OPEC Oil Production Falls 30%,
the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April after output plunged by 7.9 million bpd in March. In total, production among OPEC members has fallen more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd, during the war.
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Inflation Comes in Red Hot.
US inflation accelerated in April on rising gasoline and grocery costs, exceeding wage growth in a double whammy for already strained consumers. The consumer price index rose 3.8% from a year earlier, up from 3.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday, the most since 2023. After adjusting for inflation, wages fell for the first time in three years. Bonds (TLT) were crushed.
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CME to Create Futures Market for Computing Power Backing AI.
Definitely buy the dip here. The futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders, and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings, according to a statement on Tuesday. Indexes from market-intelligence firm Silicon Data will help underpin the products. The project is still pending regulatory review. Computing power, also known as compute, has been in high demand as AI companies use it to power their systems.
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Tesla Ramps Up Berlin Battery Production.
By almost $250 million, boosting its capacity target for the site, the company said on Tuesday. Tesla announced in December investments amounting to almost 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) at the site in Gruenheide, southeast of the German capital, as it seeks to bring battery cell and vehicle production all under one roof from next year. The EV business is on the mend!
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Oil Leaps $5,
topping $102 a barrel, as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the Iran War pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. Brent crude futures gained $3.34, or 3.21%, to $107.55 a barrel by 1314 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $3.18, or 3.24%, at $101.25. Both benchmarks climbed nearly 3% on Monday.
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Bonds Get Trashed,
on the CPI print, taking ten-year yields up to 4.45% and prices down to nine-month lows. Accelerating inflation will make matters worse. And of course, everyone is ignoring the 800-pound gorilla in the room, soaring National Debt, now at $39 trillion.
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