Archive
Hot Tips
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July 31, 2025
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Friday, August 22, Incline Village, Nevada, Global Strategy Dinner.
Come join me for dinner at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Dinner, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada, on Friday, August 22. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
Tickets are available for $249. The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada, on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. To purchase tickets for this dinner, please click here.
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Apple to Build Second Bay Area Campus for $900 Million.
Apple shelled out $350 million for the neighboring 615 and 625 North Mathilda Avenue buildings and finalized a $166.9 million deal for the Cupertino Gateway complex just south of Apple Park. With this latest acquisition, Apple’s Bay Area real estate spending for the year is nearing $900 million, going against the broader trend of shrinking physical footprints in the post-COVID era, even as return-to-office efforts have brought more workers back to the region. It’s a big vote of confidence in Apple’s future.
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Nissan Takes a $535 Million Tariff Hit.
It is slowing down Mexico production and ramping up its US-made cars at a 10X increase in labor costs. Avoid the car industry for the next three years; it is going through a meat grinder.
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S&P Case Shiller Falls for the First Time in Years,
with their National Home Price Index, down 0.3%. New York City and Chicago showed healthy gains, while Tampa, San Francisco, and Dallas saw a fall. High interest rates are certainly taking their pound of flesh.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rise
1,000 to 218,000. It’s a typical summer doldrums type of number.
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July 30, 2025
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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged,
the expected outcome. An improvement in Q2 GDP was the final nail in the coffin for a get. We’re waiting with baited breath for the press conference. I don’t expect the Fed to cut rates in 2025 with inflation rising.
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US Q2 GDP Growth Rate Grows by 0.75%,
or a 3.0% on an annualized rate. U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand rose at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.
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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Buys CyberArk (CYBR) for $20 Billion.
Cybersecurity deal activity has been robust in recent years as large corporations have increased spending on security tools. The consolidation of the industry will continue.
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Pending Home Sales Drop,
by 0.8% in June and 2.8% YOY on a signed contract basis. Active listings are up 29% YOY. Mortgage applications are down 5% on the month. The Great Depression in housing continues.
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Visa Beats, buts disappoints on guidance.
The payments processing company kept its full-year forecast for net revenue growth unchanged, sending shares of the company down nearly 2% in extended trading. Analysts expect a potential spending slowdown in the back half of 2025 as consumers front-load expenses on products they expect to become costlier once tariffs take effect.
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July 29, 2025
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Urgent Trade Alert for Tesla (TSLA).
Urgent Trade Alert for Tesla (TSLA).
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Job Openings Fall to 7.44 Million.
The JOLTS Reports says available positions decreased to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million reading in May, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.5 million openings.
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Consumer Confidence Rises,
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence rose 2 points to 97.2, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 96. A measure of expectations for the next six months climbed this month to 74.4, the highest since February, while a gauge of present conditions fell to a three-month low.
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Trade Deficit Hits Two-Year Low,
as imports collapse. While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday could prompt economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand.
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Boeing Improves,
but the shares fall. Their quarterly loss more than halved and was much smaller than analysts expected as the U.S. planemaker ramped up jet deliveries, recovering from a regulatory crisis and a major strike that halted most production last year. The results highlighted Boeing's efforts to cautiously increase monthly output this year, following years of quality issues and production delays on its flagship 737 MAX. Increased deliveries mark a pivotal step in Boeing's effort to rebound from years of production disruptions and crises that piled on debt, increasing the urgency of accelerating output to restore financial stability. Buy (BA) on tips.
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July 28, 2025
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It’s a Big Tech Earnings Week,
with Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) reporting this week. Oppenheimer raises year-end S&P 500 target to $7,100, implying that tech stocks keep going straight up for the rest of the year.
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It’s Fed Week,
and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Don’t expect any rate cuts until year-end at the earliest and May 2026 at the latest. A lethal combination of tariff-driven inflation and labor shortages triggered by the immigration crackdown, Gunaratne's future price rises. Please don’t tell the stock market!
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Newmont Mining Blows Out Earnings,
with the shares jumping 6%, and announcing a $3 billion share buyback. Gold hit $3,440 an ounce during the quarter, creating a huge tailwind for earnings. The miners are finally outperforming the barbarous relic. Buy (NEM) on dips.
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LNG Jumps,
after European trade deal calls for $750 billion in purchases of US gas. It was going to happen anyway. Russian supplies are not exactly an option. The trade deal probably knocks 1% a year off of European growth prospects for the foreseeable future.
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Housing Posts Worst Spring Selling Season in 13 Years.
Spring is traditionally the busiest season in real estate, not unlike Christmas for retailers. And while the most unaffordable housing market in decades has sidelined all but the most determined buyers, there were signs earlier this year that conditions were right for a rebound. Buy homebuilding like (DHI) on dips. Interest rate cuts are coming.
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July 25, 2025
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Friday, August 22, 2025 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Dinner.
Come join me for dinner at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Dinner, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada, on Friday, August 22. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
Tickets are available for $249. The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada, on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. To purchase tickets for this dinner, please click here.
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The Largest Railroad in History,
may be the result of the Union Pacific (UNP)/Norfolk Southern merger, worth $200 billion. A merger would enable companies to ship coast to coast without having to interchange, and could lead to more efficient loads and greater profit. It’s a distillation of 200 years of M&A that took the US down from 5,000 railroads down to one. It will also be America’s first Transcontinental railroad company.
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Speculative Activity Hits the Highest Level in History,
greater than the Dotcom Bubble and the pre-Great Financial Crisis crash, says Goldman Sachs. But the latest advance for equities has come with another meme stock frenzy, causing many observers to worry it signals a blowout top is near. That’s why I am running 70% cash in my trading portfolio.
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Tesla to Roll Out Robotaxi’s in San Francisco,
accompanied by safety drivers. The success of the robotaxi business is critical for Tesla as CEO Elon Musk has warned of a few rough quarters due to unfavorable EV policy, before revenue from the service and its self-driving software starts making a difference late next year. (TSLA) rose 6% on the news. Robotaxis will never become a meaningful contributor to Tesla's earnings.
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US Fertility Hits All-Time Low,
according to the CDC, at 1.66 children per couple, well below the 2.18 replacement rate. This bodes ill for the economy and financial markets as it means fewer future consumers and investors. But the hit won’t come for two decades. Here’s the proof: My mother had 20 grandchildren, while I have only two.
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