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Oil Soars $10,
on a re-escalation of the Iran War, with Saudi Arabia opening up military bases for American use left over from the Gulf Wars. The only reason the US would want to do that was if it were planning a ground invasion of Iran. The last time we were there in force was during Desert Storm in 1991, when the US had 500,000 troops in Saudi Arabia. I remember because I was one of them. The US may not actually be planning an invasion of Iran, it may be just trying to scare them into a deal. But today, the oil market thinks otherwise.
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Consumers are Running Out of Money,
thanks to soaring gas prices, the national average is now topping $4.50. It will be higher next week. Executives are worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Rising fuel costs are impacting low-income consumers who are dipping into savings and have less money for discretionary spending like eating out. Americans are putting less away in savings and may change their spending patterns to balance their budgets if gas prices stay high.
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ADP Rises by 109,000.
Private sector job creation was stronger than expected in April, providing more evidence of a stable labor market and less incentive for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amid persistently higher inflation, ADP reported Wednesday. The payroll processing firm said companies added 109,000 jobs for the month, a step up from the 61,000 created in March and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 84,000. April's gains were the best for the ADP count since January 2025. The March total was revised down by 1,000. Wages for those staying in their jobs rose 4.4% annually, down 0.1 percentage point.
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Citibank’s ROI is Soaring.
Citigroup laid out stronger profitability targets for the next two years at its investor day on Thursday, as CEO Jane Fraser spearheads a company-wide overhaul to drive growth. Six years into her tenure, Fraser is heading her second investor day to present the results of a massive reorganization that shrank Citi by selling retail businesses worldwide, eliminating management layers, and increasing risk and controls. They also announced a $30 billion share buyback program. Buy (C) on dips.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 to 200,000.
The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 189,000 to 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.
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More Mid East Peace Rumblings Cut Crude by $10
and send stocks soaring. The US Ship Escort lasted only a day. That’s how long it took the US Navy to cease escorting ships out of the Persian Gulf. There are still 1,400 vessels trapped inside worth trillions of dollars.
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New Home Sales Jump.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased in February and March as the drag from harsh weather faded, but higher mortgage rates could limit further gains because of the impact of the war with Iran. New home sales surged 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 682,000 units in March, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Sales increased to a rate of 635,000 units in February from 583,000 units in January, when they were weighed down by winter storms.
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AMD Rockets on Aggressive Forecast.
The shares have doubled in a month. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. soared to new heights in late trading after a flood of data center spending bolstered its sales forecast. AMD gave robust predictions for its longer-term growth, sending the shares up more than 11% in extended trading, and it’s poised to reach a record high if the gains extend into regular trading on Wednesday. AMD’s upbeat outlook signals that it’s winning orders from the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence computing, with data center customers increasingly seeking alternatives to Nvidia.
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Gasoline Soars to $4.50 a gallon National Average,
and $7.00 a gallon in California. As the U.S. Memorial Day weekend approaches and, with it, peak summer driving season, surging pump prices pose a major political risk for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party as they campaign for midterm elections in November. Without de-escalation in the Middle East, analysts say U.S. motor fuel prices could rise past prior records. Prices are going much higher before they go lower.
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Strategy Takes a Hit,
reporting a wider first-quarter loss on Tuesday, hammered by a slump in bitcoin prices that weighed on the value of its sizeable crypto holdings amid heightened market volatility. A sharp downturn in Bitcoin prices since October, later exacerbated by escalating Middle East tensions, has underscored the vulnerability of digital assets to broader risk aversion. Investors are leaning towards safer options amid concerns over lofty AI valuations and uncertainty around U.S. Federal Reserve policy.
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ADP Monthly Raises Private Jobs by 63,000,
with almost all the gains in education and health care, both demographic outcomes. Still, not every sector was growing. Professional and business services shed about 30,000 jobs, and hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector remained muted, adding only 1,000 positions in February.
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Global Inflation is Exploding,
with fuel prices rising everywhere. Natural prices in Europe are up 80%, with Qatar shut down. One guy with one drone can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil supply. For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to the strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.
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Trump Tariffs to Rise 15% this Week.
Just what we need in the face of an unfolding global recession. Too many balls in the air at one time.
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ISM Survives Jump to 56,
the best report in 3 ½ year. New orders were at 58.
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South Korean Stock Market Sees Worst Day on Record,
down 12%, as margin calls run rampant. South Korea has no energy supplies and is totally dependent on imports from the Middle East. South Korea is the world's fourth-largest buyer of oil, and around 70% of its purchases come from the Middle East. Korean equities had been Asia's best-performing, having doubled over the past year, making them particularly vulnerable to a capitulation, traders said. The benchmark KOSPI fell 698.37 points, or 12.06%, to close at 5,093.54, marking the biggest daily percentage loss in its history dating back to 1980. It lost as much as 12.65% during the session.
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Iran's New Supreme Leader Just Blew Up the Peace Talks,
and the market hasn't fully priced it yet. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement Thursday vowing to defend Iran's nuclear and missile technologies "like their maritime, land, and air borders" — and warned that foreigners have no place in the Persian Gulf "except at the bottom of its waters." Trump's demand for full denuclearization is non-negotiable. Iran's position is equally non-negotiable. Brent hit $126 on Thursday before pulling back. Peace by June 1 is now a fantasy.
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Apple Posts Its Best Quarter in History and the Ternus Era Begins,
with $111.2 billion in revenue — up 17% — and iPhone revenue hitting $57 billion, up 22% for the second consecutive quarter. Cook called it the best March quarter in the company's history. Incoming CEO John Ternus made his first public comments, calling this "the most exciting time in my 25-year career at Apple to be building products and services." Stock is up 4%. I have been following Apple since Steve Jobs, and I go way back. The transition is smoother than the market feared. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
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Eli Lilly Posts the Most Impressive Pharmaceutical Quarter in Years,
with Q1 revenue of $19.8 billion — up 56% — crushing the $17.6 billion estimate. Mounjaro sales hit $8.66 billion, up 125%. Zepbound US revenue rose 80% to $4.16 billion. EPS came in at $8.55 against a $7.06 estimate, a 21% beat. The company raised full-year revenue guidance by $2 billion to $82–85 billion. I have been watching drug companies since the Salk vaccine. This is what a generational pharmaceutical shift looks like in the numbers.
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Exxon and Chevron Both Beat Estimates on the Same Morning,
and this is what the back half of 2026 is going to look like. Exxon beat on revenue at $85.14 billion versus an $82.18 billion estimate, and delivered a one-year total shareholder return of 42%. Chevron's adjusted EPS of $1.41 was its biggest beat since October 2020 against a 95-cent estimate. Profits were down year-over-year — that's the Q1 average oil price story, not the forward story. With Brent above $100 and the Hormuz closed, Q2 and Q3 are a completely different conversation. I have been in this oil trade since February. Good thing I never left. Buy (XOM) and (CVX) on dips.
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The S&P 500 Just Had Its Best April Since 2020 — Now Comes the Hard Part,
with the index up over 9% for the month and closing above 7,200 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq surged 15%. April rewarded the brave. But today is May 1, and I have been trading this market for 50 years. "Sell in May and go away" is not just a bumper sticker — it is the historically worst six months of the year. The war is unresolved. The Fed is on hold. Kevin Warsh takes the chair in two weeks with three hawkish dissenters already on the board. Enjoy the record. Then get defensive.
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Personal Core Expenditures Price Index Leaps,
which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month. That pushes the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%, a 29-month high, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Core inflation hit its highest level since November 2023. Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a new level of challenges for the Federal Reserve, according to a batch of reports Thursday that showed economic growth slower than expected and a generational low in layoffs.
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US Q1 GDP Growth Shrinks to 2% Annualized,
bolstered by a massive AI-driven upswing in business investment. Consumer spending increased at a 1.6% rate, driven by demand for services including healthcare and financial services, while business outlays on equipment and structures advanced 10.4%, the fastest pace in almost three years. The geopolitical situation risks tempering growth should inflation-weary consumers become more guarded, with inflationary pressures accelerating sharply in March as the war spurred a surge in gasoline prices.
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Alphabet Earnings Rock,
with quarterly revenues up $109.9 billion, much more than expected. The company also updated its 2026 capital expenditure guidance range of $180 billion to $190 billion, up from its previous estimate of $175 billion to $185 billion. Alphabet said in December it would acquire Intersect, a data center company, for $4.75 billion in cash and the assumption of debt. Buy (GOOGL) on dips.
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Panama Canal Fees Soar,
as Asian buyers desperate for oil and gas scramble for global shipping routes, they are upended by the Iran war. Bids for passage have risen tenfold, which, before the war, cost $837,500. Emergency shipment of oil and gas from the US Gulf Coast to Asia is the cause. It’s just one more of the thousands of unintended consequences of the Iran War.
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The Cost of Dating Reaches Record Highs.
Half of single Americans surveyed said they are going on fewer dates or choosing less expensive activities because of rising costs. The bank polled 2,501 adults in late December through January. Nearly half of singles, 47%, said dating just isn't worth the expense, according to the survey. The typical Gen Z American went on about nine dates in the prior year, according to BMO's data. That puts their annual outlay at roughly $1,845. And you wonder why population growth is at century lows.
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