Archive
Hot Tips
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May 9, 2025
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Trump is Negotiating with Himself,
and the stock market, first demanding 145%, then 80%, and 60% by this weekend. Ignore all news. Buy low and sell high. There’s nothing else to do.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Dip to 228,000,
down 13,000 from the previous week. The employment data is more squirrelly because of massive government disruptions to the economy. All economic data is to be suspect for at least a year.
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Pinterest Rockets 20%,
after a strong quarterly revenue forecast allayed investor jitters about the uncertainty of advertising spending on its platform amid global economic volatility. It positions it alongside peers Reddit and Facebook-parent Meta, which also saw strong top-line results at a time when deepening global trade tensions have clouded the outlook for many firms dependent on marketing spend.
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Bitcoin Recovers $100,000,
for the first time since early February, bolstered by a dial down of the trade war in a sign that perhaps Trump is backing off his trade war. Overbought for now, sell Bitcoin rallies.
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US Post Office Loses $3.3 Billion,
in 2024. That’s down by half from the previous year. Expect $1 first-class staff and widespread office closings in rural areas. When I was a kid, it cost 3 cents to mail a letter.
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May 7, 2025
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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged,
at 4.25%-4.50%, supported by a consistently rising inflation rate. Stocks tanked and bonds rallied. In case you were wondering, the Fed ALWAYS prioritizes fighting inflation over unemployment because its mandate is to protect the value of the US dollar. It’s written into the 1913 law creating the Federal Reserve System. Don’t expect ANY rate cuts until year-end.
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Apple Tanks on Falling Search Revenues.
I bet you don’t get many short recommendations for Apple, but here’s a nice one. The implications for Apple were disastrous when a senior officer testified that artificial intelligence was demolishing their traditional search business. Of course, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares were trashed, down 7%. But Apple took a 5% hit as well because it earns an eye-popping $50 billion a year from its IOS operating system, referring all searches to Google. Apple shares have been trading rather feebly this month. While the S&P 500 rocketed 15%, (AAPL) managed to eak out an unimpressive, miserable 20% gain while shares like Palantir (PLTR) doubled.
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Used Car Prices are Soaring,
as tariff-fleeing consumers shun expensive new cars. I was at Subaru's yesterday, and they have shut down all production until the tariff issue is resolved. Subaru has no US factories, while Toyota has 11, Nissan 6, Daimler Benz 2, Hyundai 1, BMW 1, and Kia 1. Hang on to that clunker!
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Disney Pops 10% on Surprise Revenue Beat.
Results were boosted by better-than-expected subscriber growth for its Disney+ streaming platform. The company upped some of its fiscal 2025 guidance and posted revenue growth in all three of its business segments. It also announced Wednesday that it has reached an agreement with immersive destination and experiences company Miral to bring a park and resort to Yas Island in the United Arab Emirates. Not the stock to buy going into a recession. Avoid (DIS).
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Tesla China Sales Down 6%,
YOY in April. Deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, which account for exports to markets including Europe as well as China sales, totaled 58,459 units last month, down 25.8% from March, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Wednesday. Europe was worse. Avoid (TSLA).
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May 6, 2025
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Market Headed for New Lows,
even if the China tariffs drop from 145% to only 50%, says hedge fund guru and old friend Paul Tudor Jones. The widely followed investor’s bearish comments came after Trump’s rollout of the highest levies on imports in generations shocked the world last month, triggering extreme volatility on Wall Street. You have Trump, who’s locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who’s locked in on not cutting rates. That’s not good for the stock market.
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Nearly All US Exports are in Free Fall,
reaching most ports across the U.S. and nearly all export market products, as the trade impact of Trump’s tariffs worsens. Agriculture exports to China have been the hardest hit.
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Oil Production has Peaked,
thanks to the collapse in prices triggered by recession fears. Saudi Arabia is playing a market share game, and increasing production is another factor. Avoid all energy plays like the plague. We’re headed for $30 a barrel.
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Palantir (PLTR) Crashes 14%,
on fears of collapsing international business. Despite the post-earnings move, Palantir topped revenue expectations and lifted its revenue guidance for the year. The Denver-based company posted adjusted earnings of 13 cents per share on $884 million in revenues. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected adjusted EPS of 13 cents and revenues of $863 million. Buy (PLTR) on dips.
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Qatar Airways to Buy 100 Boeing Jets.
It will help offset lost China business from the trade war. Avoid (BA) as it’s expensive again.
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May 5, 2025
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Warren Buffett Retires,
handing over day-to-day management of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) to Greg Abel. It’s a personal blow as Warren was one of the first subscribers to Mad Hedge Fund Trader. No one could ever match his investment performance, not even Warren himself, as stocks are so much more expensive now. Even if (BRK/B) shares dropped 99% from today, it would still be the top-performing S&P 500 stock since 1965. Listening to his annual shareholder summit, he’s still all there at age 94. I want to be Warren Buffett when I grow up.
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The Fed Interest Rate Decision Comes on Wednesday,
at 1:00 PM EST. A press conference follows at 1:30. A rising inflation rate will prevent Jay Powell from taking any action for possibly as long as a year. Will this market be the next stock market top?
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Is Tesla the Next Boeing?
By cutting production costs by 17% last year, has Musk also made the cars unsafe? That’s what happened to Boeing (BA), which prioritized raising dividends and share buybacks over quality and safety to the point where its aircraft started falling out of the sky. This year, (TSLA) shares have been matching (BA) downside one for one.
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United Airlines Cuts 10% of Newark Flight Because of FAA Staff Cuts.
Throughout the week, United was forced to delay, cancel, or divert dozens of flights at its hub airport just outside New York City, where it flies about 328 flights daily. Technology issues were compounded as over 20% of the FAA controllers at Newark walked off the job.
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Jeff Bezos to Sell $4.7 Billion of Amazon Stock,
by May 2026. Time to free up some spending money. Jeff sold $13.4 billion worth of shares in 2024. Some of the money will go to finance his Blue Origin rocket hobby. Bezos still owns 9.56% of the $2 trillion company.
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May 1, 2025
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Microsoft Goes Ballistic,
With the second 10% move in a month. Indications are that AI spending is continuing unabated, taking the entire tech space up with it.
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ISM Manufacturing Index Says the Recession is Here.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Manufacturing in high-cost America has been in a structural decline for three years now and is accelerating to the downside.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rocket by 18,000.
First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended April 26, up 18,000 from the prior period and higher than the estimate for 225,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind and provide a broader view of layoff trends, rose to 1.92 million, up 83,000 to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021.
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General Motors to take $5 Billion Hit on Tariffs.
GM on Thursday lowered its 2025 earnings guidance to include a possible $4 billion to $5 billion impact as a result of President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs. GM said its new guidance includes adjusted EBIT of between $10 billion and $12.5 billion, down from $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion. GM released first quarter results Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s expectations but delayed its investor call and updated guidance details amid expected changes to the auto tariffs.
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MacDonalds Reports Worst Same Store Sales in Five Years,
down 3.6% in Q1. It could be a slowing economy. It could also be from the rise of weight loss drugs GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy, now taken by 40 million Americans, that kill your appetite.
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