The Boom in E-Commerce

Social distancing signals the death of business in March and April 2020. Enter online shopping and E-commerce.

E-commerce’s greatest strength is pulling ahead of its competition while Millennials have also been the catalyst in turning the general shopping experience into a seamless digital affair.

And now that the world is at the mercy of an invisible virus, the use case for e-commerce business models has never been brighter, more appealing, and contactless.

That’s not to say that there are still net negatives from worker’s losing their jobs and being unable to buy goods, whether online or not. The overall damage to tech companies as a result of the pandemic cannot be ameliorated with a simple panacea.

The pain is just starting as the tech market searches for a bottom.

Covid-19 cases have mushroomed to over 11,200, and investors need to digest that continued underperformance lies ahead in the short-term.

But, the long-term migration towards digital models is looking better by the second.

Essentially, the e-commerce method is being supercharged by the coronavirus and the positive unintended consequences harvested by the e-commerce business models are directly correlated to increasing fatalities.

The health scare is ushering in a giant wave of new long-term customers who are just starting their digital experiences, making investing and e-commerce a topic worth discussing.

Astonishingly, the work environment has truly metamorphosized the past two weeks - any worker who can work at home is now working at home.

No longer do we have the hesitant boss who thinks working at home is all fantasy and no production.

Local policies have been so drastic in some cities that lockdowns of schools and restaurants have become commonplace.  

People in those cities have also begun shunning public, crowded places in the name of health and survival.

How bad is it out there on the streets, and how poorly are U.S. tech firms doing?

The economic pain caused by the escalating coronavirus pandemic will be worse than the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

The Chinese economy is contracting at a 15% annual rate, while the European economy is already in severe recession because of the drop off of China revenue.

In the U.S., they are shutting down restaurants, schools and major events; people are going to be without a paycheck, and this doesn’t set up nicely for consumers to pay for tech services that aren’t utilities.

Unless there are major policy moves soon, a downward spiral will usher in something akin to a global tech recession, and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin is already ringing the alarm bells by saying unemployment could spike to 20%.

Tech won’t avoid the carnage in this drastic scenario, and it's still not “buy the dip” time.

Many industries are already queued up at Washington’s front door for a bailout and even though tech firms are better positioned than say, the oil industry, the overall slide in demand from consumers will hit come next earnings report which is just around the corner.

The bill Washington will need to foot appears upwards of $3 trillion and it’s easy to understand why when, according to a March 2020 YouGov survey, over a quarter (27%) of those in the US and 14% in the UK said they avoided public places and that number has to be closer to 80% now.

What's important to note when it comes to investing in e-commerce, is that some tech firms are a little bit luckier than others, such as Amazon, who can’t find enough workers and is raising wages and opening 100,000 new positions across the US to ensure its delivery network can service the coronavirus pandemic.

Not only do they need full-time positions but also part-time positions will be made available to meet historical seasonal labor demand in its fulfillment centers.

Management promised to inject $350 million to raising wages by $2 per hour in the US throughout April.

Amazon announced it would limit its warehouses to critical items such as medicine and household staples to ensure they meet demand.

Right now, investing in e-commerce means the companies that provide currently popular goods, such groceries, pet supplies, beauty and personal care products, health and household items, baby products, and industrial items.

Other e-commerce companies haven’t fared as well as Amazon, such as furniture e-company Wayfair who reportedly relies on mainland China for half of its merchandise and sell only one type of product - furniture.

Wayfair’s supply chain disruptions are hurting the company’s ability to deliver furniture, but it also coincides with a massive drop off in demand as consumers shun furniture for household items and groceries. 

Shares of Wayfair have dropped over 400% since January partly because the company has never been profitable and is now entering into a worsening climate to sell furniture which equated to an optimal signal for investors to dump the stock in bucketloads.

I have been bearish on Wayfair since last year and envisioned an imminent wealth-destroying effect for their business model, but I am shocked that shares dropped this rapidly.

Three weeks ago, the Boston-based company fired 500 people to help “lower costs,” validating my hypothesis.

The exorbitant cost of acquiring each additional customer was the reason I hated this company in the first place.

Uncertainty is the message of the day, and certain e-commerce companies will enjoy the turbocharging or discharging of their models.

Tech shares hate uncertainty and investors must brace themselves with regards to investing and e-commerce.