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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 19, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM WILL STEAL THE SPOTLIGHT THIS WEEK)

August 19, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

 

Week ahead calendar

2024 Democratic National Convention Aug. 19 - 22

2024 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Aug. 22 – 24

 

Monday Aug. 19

10 a.m. Leading Indicators (July)

9:30 p.m. Australia RBA Minutes

Earnings:  Palo Alto Networks, Estee Lauder.

 

Tuesday Aug 20

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.7%

Forecast: 2.7%

Earnings:  Lowe’s

 

Wednesday Aug 21

2 p.m. FOMC Minutes

Earnings:  TJX Companies, Analog Devices, Target, Raymond James Financial.

 

Thursday Aug 22

8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (08/10)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/17)

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (August)

9:45 a.m. Markit PMI Manufacturing preliminary (August)

9:45 a.m. Markit PMI Services preliminary (August)

10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (July)

11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

7:30 p.m. Japan Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.8%

Forecast: 2.9%

Earnings:  Intuit, Ross Stores

 

Friday Aug 23

8:00 a.m. Building Permits (July)

10 a.m. New Home Sales (July)

 

Later this week, we will be tuned into Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.    This speech comes just a few weeks after the July Fed meeting where he gave investors some confidence that a September rate cut was on the table.   This confidence was built on “coded statements” from Powell, that appeared to say a lot, without saying anything decisive. 

To further confuse investors about the Fed’s actions going forward, we were whipsawed by the Aug 2 non-farm payrolls data, and then the retail sales report and softer inflation data last week. 

 

This week investors will also be able to examine the behaviour of the consumer as we have earnings results from retail chains, including Lowe’s and Target.

We can also pore over weekly continuing and initial unemployment claims data to gauge the temperature of the labour market.

Outside the U.S., attention will focus on inflation metrics, with significant data releases from Canada and Japan. 

Goldman Sachs urges investors to “keep the faith” that the U.S. will avoid a recession…

My advice: be ready to take advantage of any volatility going forward.   Scale into sold-off stocks and gradually build your positions. 

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500

The market rejected the recent low a couple of weeks ago very quickly.  Is that the low?  We can never be certain.  If it is, then we have made an Elliott Wave 4 pattern low, which should now be followed by the market running up to new highs in the mid-5,700’s or toward 6000.  (But don’t expect a straight lineup). Only once this Wave 5 is over, will the bullish sequence from the October 2022 low of 3,492 be complete.  And this then leaves the market vulnerable to its biggest corrective sell-off since this bottom.  The market will tell us where the top is in its Wave structure over the coming weeks/months.

GOLD

Gold has pierced the $2,500 level, and now seems set to rally to the mid $2,500’s and then $2,670.  Support lies around $2,480-$2,450.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is still undergoing a complex corrective structure.  Support is still found in that band between $40k and $50k.  We are looking for a sustained break above $60,000 to encourage advance toward the $70,000 level, enroute to the key $73,794 resistance.

QI CORNER

 

 

Elon Musk, Albert Einstein, Charlie Munger and many others are big believers in INVERSION THINKING. 

What is it exactly?

Let’s throw some light on it by looking at some extracts from Alex Penunuri on X.

  • Inversion thinking is a problem-solving technique where you tackle problems backward.  Instead of focusing on success, you identify WHAT leads to FAILURE and AVOID those actions.  This leads to a faster & easier decision-making process.
  • Elon Musk is a big advocate of inversion thinking.  He often uses it to avoid pitfalls in his ventures.  He identifies potential failures early & steers his projects away from common mistakes.
  • It’s also a tool Charlie Munger regularly used.  “Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance” – he believed.  Rather than trying to win, avoid losing.
  • Why is inversion thinking so powerful?  As humans, we’re better at seeing threats than seeing opportunities.  By inverting your thinking, you turn complex problems into obvious solutions.
  • Another benefit of inversion thinking is its ability to relieve anxiety. When facing a difficult problem, it’s hard to see the way out.  Inversion lets you see situations from a different angle.
  • Another example:  Building a relationship.  What behaviours will ruin a relationship? Judgement, Lack of communication, No respecting the other person.  By inverting the question, you can easily see how to avoid a bad relationship.
  • What about the business context…What behaviours would ruin a business?  Having a bad product.  Not promoting your stuff.  Giving customers a poor experience.  It’s hard to see how to grow a business, easy to see how you can destroy one.
  • How can you apply Inversion Thinking in your life:
  • 1/ Find the problem
  • 2/ Identify the desired outcome
  • 3/ Invert it by asking what would prevent that goal from happening
  • 4/ Plan to avoid those actions

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 16, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S AUGUST 15, 2024, WEBINAR)

August 16, 2024

 

Hello everyone.

 

TITLE:  The Teflon Market

 

PERFORMANCE:

MTD August +3.09%

Average annualized return: +51.94% for 16 years

Trailing one year return: +51.92%

Since inception: +710.36%

 

PORTFOLIO:

Risk On:  No Positions

Risk Off: (DHI) 8/$185-$195 put spread

 

METHOD TO MY MADNESS:

Mad Hedge came out of the first crash of 2024 with decent positive returns in July and August.

We have covered exactly 2/3 of the crash losses right here.

Market has become ultra-sensitive to every economic data point.

Expect one more pullback unless every data point from here is perfect.

US Dollar gets dumped and could stay weak for years, while the Japanese yen puts on a spectacular show up and down.

Technology stocks will recover after a correction lasting months.

Energy gets dumped on recession fears if the Fed acts too slowly.

Buy stocks and bonds on dips, ALL sectors.

 

WHAT I DID RIGHT – NEVER STOP TRADING

(Seven Trade Alerts were executed on August 5)

John went into the meltdown with nine short positions in July-August, which covered most of his losses.

He only ran positions into very short August 16 option expiration, limiting damage.

Limited losses by stopping out of out-of-the-money losers quickly in (CAT), (BRK/B), and (AMZN).

Super aggressive when the Volatility Index ($VIX) hit $65, a two-year high.

He went hyper-conservative by adding four technology positions very deep 20% in-the-money in (NVDA), (META), (TSLA), and (MSFT).

He used the first 1,000-point rally to add a short position for every long, neutralizing the portfolio at the middle of the recent range and taking in a lot of extra income.

 

WHAT TO DO NEXT

Let the last position expire at max profit on August 16 option expiration.

Go 100% cash.

Wait for an extreme move up or down before adding new long or short positions, for the Volatility Index ($VIX) to pop above $30.

Watch for special situations, like (LRCX) where the Mad Hedge Technology Letter put out a buy on a strong earnings report.  The stock immediately rocketed 25%.

Take your wife or partner out to a nice restaurant and spend the money you made.

 

STOCKS – IS THE BOTTOM IN?

John doesn’t think so.   The valuation disparity between big tech and value is still miles wide.

$150 billion in Volatility plays were dumped on Monday.

Uncertainty reaches a maximum just before the election.  A bottom for the year is coming, but not yet.

Delta loses $550 million in CrowdStrike computer crash, which lost the airline an eye-popping 7,000 flights.

No Recession here, says shipping giant Maersk, U.S. inventories are not at a level that is worrisome.

Warner Brothers wrote down $9 billion on disappearing TV business.

Super Micro (SMCI) announces 10:1 share split.

Foreign investors pull a record amount from China, $15 billion in Q2.

Buy (META) on a dip.

Buy two-year LEAPS on (CCJ)

(FCX) – double up down to $30.

Buy REITS = great yield.

 

BONDS – UPSIDE BREAKOUT

Market prices in 50-point basis cut for September.

Warren Buffett now owns more T-bills than the Federal Reserve.   The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate held $234.6 billion in short-term investments in Treasury bills at the end of the second quarter.

Cold CPI assures September interest rate cut, sends all fixed income securities soaring.

Bonds holding gains even in the face of a summer stock correction.

Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS on dips.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – Goodbye Yen Carry Trade

Japan’s Carry trade ends, prompted by rising interest rates that catapulted the Japanese currency by 14% in days.

For the past 30 years, hedge funds have been financing their positions through selling short the yen, which yielded zero, and investing the proceeds anywhere in the world into anything with a positive return.

They then leveraged this position times ten or more, creating a massive global market impact.

The Bank of Japan move to raise interest rates by a mere 25 basis points ended this game.

The prospect of falling interest rates means that the greenback is on the way down.

It’s all in response to the blockbuster negative CPI.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC).

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – Recession Fears

Oil collapses to $71 a barrel, taking the rest of the commodity space down with it.

This is despite the support from multiple Middle Eastern wars.

No one wants to pay for storage during a recession, especially with the current high interest rates.

Weak Chinese economic data was the gasoline on the fire.

Replacement by EV’s and the shift out of cars into planes are big factors.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – New Highs

Gold - new all-time highs.

Silver takes a break from economic slowdown, and enters sideways range.

Miners have started to outperform metals for the first time in years, indicating an increase in investor leverage.

A global monetary easing is at hand.

Buy precious metals on the dip because rates have to fall eventually.

Miners are expanding their operations and ramping up production as prices for the precious metal climb to decade highs.

Buy (GLD), (SLV), and (WPM) on dips.

 

REAL ESTATE – A shot in the arm

A refi boom is about to begin.  Mortgage rates in the high fives are now on offer.

Over 40% of existing mortgages have rates of over 6%.

It’s all driven by the monster rally in the bond market this week which took the (TLT) to $100 and ten-year US Treasury yields down to 3.65%.

Pending home sales rocketed 4.8% in June, versus 1.0% expected.  The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings.

Homeowners Insurance premiums rocketed by 21% last year.

Home insurers take the biggest hit in history, as the bill from climate change accelerates at an exponential rate, a $15.2 billion underwriting loss in 2023, double that in 2022.

 

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – buy the next big dip

Bonds – buy dips

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – sell dollar rallies, buy currencies

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – avoid

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – buy dips

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

August 28 from Lake Tahoe, Nevada

Recording of Jacquie’s Post July 31, 2024, Zoom Meeting

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/jacquie-munro-meeting-replay-july-2024/

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 14, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR AMID RECESSIONS: WHERE DOES THE MONEY GO?)

August 14, 2024

 

Hello everyone.

Which would you most likely give up if a recession descended upon us?

  1. Netflix
  2. Fast food including Chipotle, McDonalds, Burger King, Taco Bell, In-N-Out Burger, Baskin-Robbins, etc
  3. Your favourite coffee fix
  4. None of the above

If it was me, and I had to choose one, apart from d) it would be fast food.  But then, that would be easy for me, because I don’t eat it in the first place.  So, I’m cheating a little in that sense.   So, my second pick would be my coffee fix.  Again, easy, as I am a tea drinker and prefer to make a pot of tea in the morning or (grab a teabag if I’m in a hurry).

If we are not going to eat out, and are not getting our coffee fixes, then where would our discretionary dollars be going?

Many will find comfort in media options.  And Netflix comes to mind here.

How many people have not spent a lazy day binge-watching their favourite series or rewatching old movies?    

Netflix may turn out to be a stalwart stock against a backdrop of recessionary dark clouds building up on the horizon.  Analysts at J.P. Morgan believe the service provides good value, even with their latest price increases.  Capex is expected to come in around $ 17 billion this year, and JPM has an overweight rating on the stock.  Their price target of $750 indicates around 18.5% upside potential from Monday’s close.  From the beginning of this year, the stock is almost 32% higher.

Following its second-quarter earnings announcement on July 18, Netflix shares are trading only around 2% lower, compared with the S&P 500 which is down around 4% over the same period. Of note, in the second quarter, Netflix reported a 34% yearly increase in its ad-supported memberships, and total memberships topped analysts’ forecasts.  JPM analysts regard subscription services like NFLX and SPOT as “being more resilient during periods of macro pressure.”

Netflix is positioned well as it targets 500M+ global (connected TV) households.

Spotify has also been a strong performer this year, with shares up 80% year to date.

 

Netflix (NFLX) Daily chart

I recommended Netflix (NFLX) on January 17, 2024, when it was $480.

 

Spotify (SPOT) Daily chart

 

I recommended Spotify (SPOT) on January 7, 2024, when it was $193.52

I am not suggesting you buy at this time or add weight.

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT…

In a recent talk the Private Wealth Group of Wells Fargo Advisors offered comments on investing.  Here are a few takeaways. 

“What we can learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.”   

“All this creates a lot of short-term thinking in the markets.  They become focused on what is in the news, and money drives toward these companies and industries, it’s during this time that investment principles are forgotten.”

Their thoughts on the media are interesting.  (In the 1980’s, I don’t recall any financial media channels.  CNBC was founded on April 17, 1989, two years after the 1987 crash. It was originally the Consumer News and Business Channel, a joint venture between NBC and Cablevision).

Getting back to their ideas…

Tuning out the headlines to stay focused on the long term.

“People get caught up in what’s going on in the news and what the media is talking about.  A lot of people are working from home.  They have got the TV on.  If you watch any of the financial news networks, there’s not that much news every day.  They just keep talking about the same thing over and over and over again.  And people hear that, and they stick with it and then it becomes real to them, and all their investing principles and history is gone by the wayside.”

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 12, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(ALL EYES ARE ON THE CPI DATA THIS WEEK)

August 12, 2024

 

Hello everyone.

 

Week ahead calendar

Monday, August 12

2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (July)

8:30 a.m. Australian Consumer Confidence

Previous: -1.1%

Forecast: 0.5%

 

Tuesday, August 13

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July)

2:00 a.m. UK Employment Rate

Previous: 4.4%

Forecast: 4.5%

Earnings:  Home Depot

 

Wednesday, August 14

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (July)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (July)

Earnings: Progressive

 

Thursday, August 15

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (July)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/10)

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (August)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (August)

8:30 a.m.  Retail Sales (July)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (July)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (July)

9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (July)

10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (June)

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

2:00 a.m. UK GDP Growth

Previous: 0.7%

Forecast: 0.6%

Earnings:  Applied Materials, Walmart, Tapestry, Deere & Co

 

Friday, August 16

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (July)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (July)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (August)

Previous: 66.4

Forecast: 66.7

 

Volatility in the US markets early last week moderated by Friday.  Monday saw the biggest volatility shock in equities since the onset of the pandemic.  Forex markets experienced similar volatility, with an initial flight to “safe haven” currencies like JPY and CHF, followed by a stabilization in USD as markets recovered.    USD traders are now looking to Wednesday’s CPI inflation data release, where headline inflation is expected to dip into the 2% range for the first time since 2021.   A sharp decline in this data could reignite recession fears, similar to July’s employment report, as traders worry the Fed has waited too long to begin cutting interest rates.

UK data, including employment, inflation, and GDP figures will be closely watched by traders.

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

Upside potential ahead, but it could be choppy.  We could argue that an Elliott Wave 4 has now been completed and that this could signal the resumption of an uptrend and advance on to new highs for the year.

Resistance = 5450/5470 area.  If we see a break above these levels then we can see the market rallying toward 5, 570/5,670 area.

Support = 5,200/5,110.  If these levels give way, risk reverts to the downside, and we will be eyeing the key 4,950 support area of April 19.

 

GOLD

Uptrend is in progress, but momentum has slowed. 

We should be watching the support level of $2,365/$2,360 area.  If this level is broken, then we may see a corrective sell-off back toward the $2,290/$2,275 area.

If the market is able to rally through the $2,500 level, then there is potential for the metal to rally to around $2,550, en route to $2,670.

 

BITCOIN

It is not yet certain whether Bitcoin has completed its corrective structure from its mid-March peak of $73,794 to last week’s low of $49,577.  There could still be a lot of churn.  It is possible that we could revisit the lows of last week (or close to it) or even around the $40,000 level before a new bull rally begins, and we move out of this corrective structure.  It could be September/October before we see any significant rally in Bitcoin.

 

QI CORNER

 

 

PSYCHOLOGY CORNER

BE PATIENT AND DON’T OVERTRADE

If most traders would learn to sit on their hands 50 percent of the time, they would make a lot more money.”  (Bill Lipschutz)

The lesson we can take away from Lipschutz’s quote is the importance of the art of patience.  A very common mistake for beginner traders, eager to make a quick profit, is to overtrade.  This, inevitably, always leads to increased losses.

Devise a trading strategy/plan and stick to it.  Be patient and disciplined and only enter trades where your predetermined conditions have been met.  In this way, you can be sure to avoid many unnecessary losses.

Bill Lipschutz, unfortunately, learned this lesson the hard way, He began his trading career as a student, after receiving an inheritance of stocks with a value of $12k.  He liquidated these stocks, began trading with the funds, and managed to turn them into $250k.

However, his early success was short-lived.  A poor trading decision caused him to lose it all.  But he did not give up.  This is another lesson we can take from Lipschutz.  He continued trading and upon graduation, he joined the Foreign Exchange Department at Salomon Brothers, where he went on to earn an average of $300 million a year for the firm.  He is now the Director of Portfolio Management at Heathersage Capital Management, which he co-founded.

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT…

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 9, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(DON’T GET TOO COMFY – MORE CHOP & CHURN IS ON THE HORIZON)

August 9, 2024

 

Hello everyone.

ARE WE THERE YET?   

Historically, it is rare for markets to put in correction lows in August.  September and October are more likely to see an eventual bottom.  So, be ready for equity market volatility in September. 

 

ELI LILLY(LLY)

Eli Lilly reported impressive second quarter earnings.  Mounjaro, a prescription medication for Type 2 diabetes, and Zepbound, a prescription medicine for weight loss are two drugs by Eli Lilly seeing incredible demand.  In its first full quarter in the U.S. market, Zepbound brought in $517.4 million in revenue.  In the second quarter, it generated $1.24 billion in U.S. revenue.

Obesity affects nearly 42% of adults in the U.S. according to the latest data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. 

The demand for weight loss drugs in on the rise around the world.  The global market for obesity medication is expected to hit $105 billion in 2030, according to Morgan Stanley’s research.  That’s up from the firm’s forecast in September of $77 billion.

Drug manufacturers like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the pharmaceutical company that makes Ozempic and Wegovy, are racing to meet that demand.  Both companies are investing billions to build new manufacturing plants to boost supply of the popular medications.

Eli Lilly was founded in 1876 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 1952.

$1000 invested in Eli Lilly 10 years ago would now be worth $13,143, an estimated percentage increase of 1,214%.

The lesson here is don’t try and attempt to use a company’s short-term performance to predict how well or how poorly it may do in the future.  There will always be market fluctuations.  The key is to stay the course and let the growth narrative unfold over time.

 

 

This is an item of interest, not a suggestion to buy (LLY) right now.  But (LLY) is an excellent stock to hold for the long term.

WHAT SHOULD MY PORTFOLIO LOOK LIKE?

An illustration of asset classes and allocations by age. 

It is different for everyone.

So, one example does not fit all.

 

 

 

 

WHAT IS… FORWARD PRICE/ EARNINGS RATIO?

The forward price/earnings ratio is a measurement of value.  It is found by dividing a stock’s most recent price by next year’s earnings per share estimate for the entire year.  If that estimate is unavailable, then the estimate for the full current fiscal year is used.

 

 

For a better understanding of what forward price-to-earnings means, let’s look at an example.  Let’s say a company’s current stock price is $25.  Analysts estimate an EPS of $1.50 for the next quarter.  Its forward P/E ratio would be 25/1.5=16.

Difference between forward P/E and trailing P/E

The main difference between standard P/E and the forward price-to-earnings definition is that the former uses actual EPS that has already been reported by a company, whereas the latter uses the EPS estimate.

The standard P/E is used to evaluate whether a company is overvalued or undervalued, whereas forward P/E ratio determines future estimated value.

Let’s look at an example.  If the current price of a stock is $8 with the EPS of $1, and its earnings are expected to double in the next year to $2, the forward P/E ratio will be 4x, or half of the company’s value when it earned $1.

If the forward P/E is lower than the current P/E, analysts expect earnings to increase.  On the other hand, when the forward P/E is higher than the current P/E ratio, analysts expect earnings to decrease.

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT…

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 7, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(STAY COOL IN THE FACE OF A TURBULENT MARKET & START LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES)

August 7, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

 

The market has been throwing a little tantrum over the last few days, and we all know why.

Unwinding of the yen carry-trade

Economic market data

The Fed turning up to the party with no rate cuts.  Late again Mr Powell…

AI over-exuberance

Today, Tuesday, we saw some calmer waters, but the stinger is that more volatility may be yet to come.  We are waiting for a signal that the bottom is formed in this correction.

 

YEN CARRY TRADE

What an epic unwinding of the yen carry trade.  Are we done or is there more to come?

A few investment bank analysts are indicating more unwinding is yet to happen.

What is the Yen carry trade?

Investors borrow from low-interest economies like Japan to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.  The strategy hit turbulence when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week, prompting a surge in the yen and a rush for the exits by some investors.    This move led to significant losses in global stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei suffering its worst day since 1987.

 

HIGHER INFLATION IN THE YEARS AHEAD

It won’t matter who wins the Presidential election in November in relation to the markets.  Both parties favour large deficits despite a strong economy.  The federal debt is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020.  As a portion of the total U.S. economy, it is now more than 120%.  Debt has soared under Biden after Trump’s aggressive spending response to the pandemic increased the levels.

 

HEADLINES CORNER

Gov. Tim Walz gets the nod to be Democratic running mate beside Harris.

Reserve Bank of Australia keeps rates steady at 4.35%.

 

WHERE TO ADD WEIGHT (Scale in over time)

Amazon

Stock trades at just under 30 times expected earnings for the next 12 months. 

E-commerce business continues growing & remains competitive.

Grew advertising revenue 20% in the second quarter.

Cloud sales rose 19%, driven by artificial intelligence products.

Spending should remain in check in relation to revenue growth, so profit margins should expand. 

Wall Street expects EPS to grow about 37% annually through 2026 from this year. (FactSet)

 

 

Amazon Daily Chart

 

Nvidia

Analysts expect stock to reach over $100 billion in revenue this year.

Total sales of $115 billion for 2024 appear realistic.

Earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $2.59 has not changed.

Considering all the above, NVDA could be on track to grow to the expected $3.66 next year.

Stock trades at 28 times expected 2025 earnings per share.

 

 

Nvidia Daily Chart

 

CRYPTO CORNER

If you have been watching this area, you saw that Bitcoin dropped below $50k briefly on Monday to around the $48k area.  All these corrective selloffs are scale in days, if you are interested in Bitcoin and the crypto space.  With institutional adoption only increasing and political parties shifting their stance toward crypto indicating a warmer embrace of the asset, this could be an opportune time to add exposure to bitcoin ahead of what could be excellent returns over the coming year and beyond.

For those who are interested in Bitcoin miners, there are about a half dozen recommended by analysts.  Of these, there is just one I would give my attention to.  Core Scientific (CORZ). ($9.71)

Core Scientific turned down an offer from the cloud AI startup CoreWeave to acquire them for $5.75 per share.   It is believed that the bid is higher now and that the deal will increase considerably in the coming months. Some analysts, including Cantor Fitzgerald, have a $20 price target on the stock, implying about 143% upside.  (Note: our only crypto exposure is MicroStrategy). 

 

Daily Chart (CORZ) $9.71

 

 

Weekly Chart (CORZ) $9.71

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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August 5, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(THE CORRECTION IS UPON US – BUCKLE UP)

August 5, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

U.S. Markets turned down sharply last Friday after the July nonfarm payroll revealed the highest unemployment rate since 2021, catching many by surprise.  (If you had read my Monday, July 29 newsletter last week, you would have already known we were in a Wave 4 down period and would have been aware of the targets).  Many stocks were absolutely battered, including Intel.  No sector was left untouched.  Yields fell, and the TLT rallied strongly.  But you knew all this was about to happen – you had been forewarned.

The US dollar depreciated against all major currencies, with particularly steep declines against traditionally risk-off currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY).  In response to this data, markets are now pricing in steep rate cuts – as many as 150 basis points – from the Federal Reserve by year’s end.  ( I said earlier in the year that the slowdown in the economy would show up in the second half of the year and steamroll its way through the economy like a ball falling down a hill, gathering momentum as it fell, and this is exactly what is showing up in the data now – the economy is slowing faster than most realize, and the Fed is where it was when it went to raise rates -  slow to the party - and will now be expected to act aggressively.)

All Aussies will be watching the Reserve Bank on Tuesday.  No change is expected, but many are hoping for a rate cut.

Economic data points from China, including the trade balance and inflation figures, will give some insight into an economy that is still struggling post-pandemic.

 

 

I am not suggesting you buy any of the stocks listed above at this time.  I am merely showing you what the bank is focused on.  We hold three of these stocks in our portfolio:  Caterpillar, Amazon and Microsoft.

 

Week ahead calendar

Monday, August 5

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (July)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (July)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (July)

Previous:  48.8

Forecast: 51

Earnings:  Simon Property Group, Diamondback Energy, Tyson Foods, Progressive

 

Tuesday, August 6

8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (June)

12:30 a.m. Australia Rate Decision

Previous: 4.35%

Forecast: 4.35%

Earnings:  Super Micro Computer, Fortinet, Devon Energy, Airbnb, Wynn Resorts, Axon Enterprise, TransDigm Group, Yum Brands, Fidelity National Information Services, Uber Technologies, Marathon Petroleum, Caterpillar

 

Wednesday, August 7

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (June)

10:00 a.m. Canada Ivey PMI

Previous: 62.5

Forecast: 58

Earnings: Costco Wholesale, Warner Bros, Discovery, Occidental Petroleum, Ralph Lauren, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Walt Disney Company

 

Thursday, August 8

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/27)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/03)

10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (June)

9:30 p.m. China Inflation Rate

Previous: 0.2%

Forecast: 0.3%

Earnings:  Gilead Sciences, Akamai Technologies, Take-Two Interactive Software, News Corp, Paramount Global, Expedia Group, Martin Marietta Materials, Eli Lilly

 

Friday, August 9

8:30 a.m. Canada Unemployment Rate

Previous: 6.4%

Forecast: 6.4%

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500 

Correction sell-off in progress.  Support zone = between 5,265 – 4,950.  Sustained break of 4,950 would probably see a much deeper sell-off toward the late 4,500’s.

GOLD

If gold can hold $2,350 area, the metal could advance to the mid $2,500’s.  A break of the latter level would see gold rallying toward the $2,650 zone.  However, if gold does fall below the $2,300 area, we could see a fall toward $2,260 or even $2,200.

BITCOIN

As I write this Post Sunday after/evening, I am watching the price action of Bitcoin, which is now sitting at $54,190.00.   There is strong support at the $50k level, and at the $40k level.

PSYCHOLOGY CORNER

Herd Behaviour

This occurs when investors follow the actions of the majority, often leading to trends and bubbles.  Herd behaviour can result in significant swings as large groups of investors buy or sell simultaneously.

Exploiting Herd Behaviour

By understanding how herd behaviour drives market movements, investors can position themselves to benefit from the irrational actions of the crowd.  For example, contrarian investors often buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

It’s the Olympics, so we must celebrate our athletes’ achievements.

Australian, Saya Sakakibara, wins the gold medal in BMX and dedicated it to her brother.

 

GOOD VIBES CORNER

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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August 2, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(WHAT IS REALLY CHURNING THE MARKET)

August 2, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

Is the economy slowing much faster than most realize?

Let’s check out the ISM data.

(ISM) Institute for Supply Management

The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity based on a survey.  The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health for manufacturing and service sectors.

The ISM release was weak overall, but it is the employment component that should be the talking point. If we cut the GFC and the pandemic from the picture – this is the weakest the series has been in over 20 years.  The trend is very clear. 

 

 

This is a sign of cooling domestic growth conditions.  A recessionary breeze is starting to pick up, and if this is the case, one rate cut is not going to dent this trend. 

Downbeat economic data is making gold upbeat

The metal has found support against a backdrop of slowing economic data, central bank buying, weakness in the dollar, and tensions in the Middle East.  Going forward, expect a new range between $2,500 and $2,700 as the metal navigates a turbulent backdrop. Keep scaling into GLD on pullbacks and SLV. 

Good news may not be far away for Aussies

Relief could be on the way for mortgage holders across the country as experts tip a rate cut might be on the table before Christmas. 

Inflation figures released on Wednesday aren’t considered high enough to warrant a rate hike. 

More than 80% of the surveyed economists predict the cash rate will be held at 4.35% when the board meets next week.

Australia’s core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, has slowed enough to almost rule out another rate rise.

Some, however, are not ruling out a rate hike.  University of Sydney economist, James Morley is among 19% of economists predicting an interest rate hike is likely to arrive in August.

While Mr Morley is anticipating a rate increase in August, he still believes that rate cuts will begin later in the year and well into the New Year.

Homeowners are waiting patiently for relief, as almost 50% of homeowners have struggled to pay their mortgage in July.

QI CORNER

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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July 31, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(EXAMINING THE TECHNICALS IN NVIDIA (NVDA) AS WE NAVIGATE THE MID-SUMMER STOCK SWOON)

July 31, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

The long-awaited summer vacation has arrived for the stock market.   Stocks are at the mercy of investors who decided one day that they wanted to own something different rather than just technology stocks.  So, the sell button was decidedly pushed en mass, and funds then poured into a variety of other sectors, most notably small caps, and interest-sensitive sectors, which include home builders, health, and energy stocks. Of course, this movement has a lot to do with rate cuts that are not too far away.

But also, the tech sector is taking a healthy break.  This sector has run very hard at what seemed like 12-cylinder horsepower. Eventually, a rest is needed.  We are witnessing a broadening of the market as we head into the final months before the U.S. election takes place.

One of the stock favorites in the tech sector is Nvidia (NVDA).  It is one stock that has definitely been on a sprint to the stars and is now taking a much-needed rest.   Using Inside Edge Capital charts, let’s take a deeper dive into how that stock looks from a technical perspective, and where we might see significant support levels.

Firstly, let’s look at the 200-day moving average, shown in the dotted blue line in the chart below.   You will notice that it is trending higher, and the stock price is still well above the 200-day MA.    The stock is still in a well-established up trend.  Since it broke above the MA in January 2023 NVDA is still around 540% higher since that move even after the recent sell-off.

 

 

There is a possibility that NVDA falls into a consolidation pattern as we wait for earnings at the end of August, which would allow the moving average to trend higher closing the gap.

 

 

The uptrend support line (red-dashed) should intersect the stock price at around $96-$93 depending on the continued rate of share price decline.  $96 is also this year’s break-out level, and it should now offer support.

Let’s not forget volume.  This identifies the seller’s conviction in this sell-off.  The 50-day MA of the daily volume totals is clearly in a decline since April.  In other words, the urgency of selling is waning.

Based on the fundamental outlook of continued strong earnings growth and the technical outlook, the stock should not get too far below the mid-$90s before the low is found.

 

On this chart, I have drawn support and trend lines, showing where the stock price may find lows.  I have also drawn the trend line showing declining volume since March 2024.

 

Weekly NVDA chart

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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July 29, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(INVESTORS WILL BE WATCHING  CLOSELY AS THE MARKET NAVIGATES AN EVENTFUL WEEK)

July 29, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

Week ahead calendar

Monday, July 29, 2024

10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (July)

7:30 p.m. Japan Unemployment Rate

Previous: 2.6%

Forecast: 2.6%

Earnings:  On Semiconductor, McDonalds

 

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (May)

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices (May)

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (July)

10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June)

9:30 p.m. Australia Inflation Rate

Previous: 3.6%

Forecast: 3.8%

Earnings:  Advanced Micro Devices, Live Nation Entertainment, Public Storage, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Microsoft, First Solar, Extra Space Storage, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, Merck & Co, Stanley Black & Decker, PayPal.

 

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (July)

8:30 a.m. Employment Cost Index (ECI) Civilian Workers (Q2)

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (July)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (June)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

Previous: 5.50%

Forecast: 5.50%

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

Earnings:  MGM Resorts International Allstate, Albemarle, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western Digital, Meta Platforms, Etsy, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, T-Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Kraft Heinz, Mastercard, Ingersoll Rand.

 

Thursday, Aug 1, 2024 

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/20)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/27)

8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q2)

8:30 a.m. Productivity SAAR preliminary (Q2)

9:45 a.m. Markit PMI Manufacturing (July)

10 a.m. Construction Spending (June)

10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July)

7:00 a.m. UK Rate Decision

Previous: 5.25%

Forecast: 5.00%

Earnings:  Apple, Clorox, Intel, Amazon.com, Booking Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Microchip Technology, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna, Air Products and Chemicals.

 

Friday, Aug 2, 2024

8:30 a.m. Jobs Report (July)

Previous: 206k

Forecast 185k

10:00 a.m. Durable Orders (June)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (June)

Earnings:  Exxon Mobil, Chevron

 

This week the global interest rate landscape could shift significantly as the Bank of Japan, FOMC, and Bank of England convene to determine their respective rates.  The BoE is anticipated to reduce rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut since 2020.  Conversely, the Bank of Japan might increase rates from 0% in an effort to bolster the yen, following suspected currency intervention last week which resulted in USD/JPY dropping 2.3% - its largest weekly decline since April.

After the market volatility last week, earnings results may well sway an already sensitive market into a chop and churn behavior pattern, especially with the backdrop of the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, and the Jobs Report on Friday.  For the week ahead, 171 S&P500 companies, along with 10 Dow members, report results.

The market is expecting no change in rates on Wednesday from the FOMC, but it may clarify whether rate cuts are slated for September, aligning with trader expectations.   The Jobs Report may show unemployment figures ticking up. 

Amazon.com Inc. will be one to watch.  It can show investors both sides of the coin, so to speak.  Amazon’s e-commerce network can offer details on the state of online spending for both consumers and businesses.  And its other segments provide a look into AI and cloud competition and entertainment.

Also on my radar is Starbucks.  Earnings results will show the spending habits of consumers and any shifts in behavior toward discretionary expenses.

=====================================================================

The Paris Olympics has begun.  Spectators and television audiences saw a rain-soaked opening ceremony. (Many spectators at the opening ceremony complained they couldn’t see anything, and so chose to go home).   Australia has been successful in many events, most notably swimming and most recently in the kayak singles final where Jess Fox won gold.

 

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500

Since recording a Bearish outside reversal week in mid-July, the S&P 500 has been undergoing a significant corrective decline.   From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is interpreted to have completed its extended Wave 3/ advance to signal the start of a broad Wave 4/ correction.  Support should be found between 5, 265 and 4,954.  Only a sustained break below key 4,954 support (the prior 4th wave low) would instead signal that the market is correcting its entire uptrend from 3,492 – 5,670, to then risk a deeper sell-off back toward the late 4,500’s.

GOLD

Gold is still completing an irregular corrective wave structure.  Resistance = around $2400/$2440.  There is a risk of a deeper correction below $2365/$2350 support toward the $2290/$2275 support area and even $2225/$2200, before exhaustion.  If that move eventuates scale into GLD to build your holdings here.  It may be a similar story with silver.  If silver follows a similar pattern, scale into SLV to build your position here as well.

BITCOIN

Strong resistance in the low $70k’s is likely to contain strength in the short term, which may prompt a correction back to the low $60s/high $50s in the near term.  If this eventuates, scale into Bitcoin on this corrective move.

WHAT IS…

Temporal Discounting

…is the common experience of valuing more immediate rewards over those in the future.  In Behavioural economics and neuroeconomics, temporal discounting, or hyperbolic discounting can help us appreciate how our financial decisions are not always rational.  Understanding the phenomenon, also known as time discounting or intertemporal choice, can help us make better decisions.

We all know that sometimes we make poor financial decisions, and even unhealthy lifestyle choices, but understanding temporal discounting helps us not only gain greater awareness of our financial and lifestyle choices but also develop insight into the extent it affects our emotional well-being when we opt for short-term gratification, which can ultimately lead to regret or guilt later.

At its core, temporal discounting is about how we perceive the value of time.

Let’s look at an example here.  Imagine you have the choice of receiving $100 today or $110 in a month.  Many people are going to take the $100 today even though the future number is greater.  Many people perceive the $10 as less valuable because it is delayed or seen as so far away.  Temporal discounting relates to how we value future rewards or punishments.

Understanding hyperbolic discounting sheds light on why we make illogical or self-defeating choices.  Whether it’s skipping a workout, wasting money on a rash purchase, or opting for fast food over a healthy meal, the appeal of immediate gratification frequently overshadows rational decision-making.

WE OVERVALUE IMMEDIATE REWARDS AT THE EXPENSE OF LONG-TERM GOALS

Delaying Gratification is Challenging

The tendency to focus on the now often puts an individual/family at risk of not achieving important long-term goals.  Why are people behind on saving for retirement?

The following data shows results from a Franklin Templeton Retirement Strategies and Expectations Survey conducted in early 2022. The sample size was 2,029 adults 40 years of age and older and weighted by age, gender, geographic region, race, and education. 

 

 

The survey also showed that many of those nearing retirement are ill-prepared.  As illustrated in the chart here, 37% of those aged 60-69 have between $0-$100K saved for retirement, and 35% have nothing saved at all.

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

40-50-year mortgages

Lower deposit requirements

These are a couple of the notions being tossed about by big four bank Australian CEOs to help fix the nation’s housing crisis.

Commonwealth Bank group executive retail banking services Angus Sullivan said, “improving housing affordability is a complex issue and there’s no silver bullet, but product innovation is key, as are partnerships between the public and private sectors.”

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

GOOD VIBES CORNER

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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