Jacque's Post Archives

September 18, 2023

(IS EVERYONE SOLD ON MUSK’S CYBERTRUCK?)

September 18, 2023

Hello everyone,

The Tesla pick-up truck, Cybertruck, is a one-of-a-kind vehicle. It has an exoskeleton that is nearly impossible to penetrate, a stainless-steel reinforced body, and armor glass. Every component is designed for superior strength and durability. The Tesla internals are made of a paper composite material, making it environmentally friendly and durable. The material is heated and made to look like marble giving it a luxury look. And it can run 500+ miles on a single charge. What’s not to like?

Yes, the Cybertruck runs on electric power, but let’s think about how the car was put together in the first place. Large amounts of energy, aluminum, and mined materials are needed to build the Cybertruck. Doesn’t this go against Musk’s climate-preserving principles? Eliminating tailpipe emissions is all very well, but when you are mining battery materials to achieve this end, the process itself is environmentally damaging. The negative effects include groundwater pollution from mining scraps and chemicals and the fact that underage labour is used at many mines outside Western countries.

While it may produce less carbon pollution, its status as an entirely environmentally friendly vehicle is debatable. The tires and the weight of the car are a problem. Heavy EVs seem to create more harmful tire dust than conventional vehicles and the tiny particles that are shed float in the air and leach into our waterways, which damages human health and wildlife. A hazardous chemical treatment typically used on tires is linked to declining salmon populations in the U.S. and tire dust is arguably seen as an unregulated contributor to lung and heart disease.

The tire wear is much greater because of the added weight of the vehicle, and researchers in this area state that most of this will be created under acceleration, braking, and cornering.

The Cybertruck is a niche, fashion statement vehicle, but will it meet the needs of customers who want it to equal a regular pick-up?

One thing that could put many off is the price. Most customers buy a pick-up truck with a purpose in mind. It should be functional, reliable, and economical. Tesla is known for its pricey cars, so buyers of regular pick-up trucks may not find the Cybertruck an affordable vehicle. Additionally, Tesla has no experience designing and manufacturing pick-up trucks. The company has only designed SUVs and sedans, so early customers may find some shortcomings in the design and performance of the Tesla pick-up truck.

On the plus side, the Tesla pick-up truck is sure to offer advanced features and technology not offered by any other regular pick-up trucks. Tesla is known for incorporating cutting-edge technology into its vehicles. Self-driving features and high-tech infotainment systems spring to mind. This would appeal to the tech-savvy community.

Additionally, Tesla has a reputation for producing high-quality vehicles that need little maintenance in their lifetime. As a reliable and economical vehicle, the Cybertruck could be seen as more attractive in that it would probably require less maintenance and replacement parts than a regular pick-up truck.

So, with the pros and cons put on the table, we will have to wait for the first Tesla Cybertrucks to hit the road before customer reviews and testimonials tell the real story.

Have a wonderful week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

September 15, 2023

Jacque's Post

(BILLIONS LOST EVERY YEAR THROUGH RETAIL FRAUD)

September 15, 2023

Hello everyone,

Every year global companies are losing large amounts of money by virtue of customers abusing company policies. Return fraud, coupon stacking, and fake accounts are costing retailers around $100 billion annually.

Some would say it is the cost of doing business.

But for retailers, it is a hard act to swallow.

Some of the practices customers use include using multiple email addresses to take advantage of promotions more than once. Another one is buying multiple items with the intention of returning most of them or wearing an item with plans to return it and not pay for it.

Some customers also buy an item and then say it is faulty and request another item be sent. Company policy requires that a new item be sent out for free as a replacement for the faulty one, (which isn’t faulty at all). These customers are then on-selling the items through another online shop. This technique is common for limited-edition sneaker drops.

Another type of policy abuse includes using bots to buy out highly valued items and re-selling them for a higher cost on a third-party platform (like the example given above). An example here would be concert tickets, which happened during sales for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.

These lax policies are allowing fraudsters to have a field day.

In one example I read about a pet supply company based in the U.S. that lost $3.5 million in the first quarter of 2023 after a small group of serial fraudsters exploited a promotion code for a 35% to 50% discount.

Trying to fight back against this type of abuse is extremely difficult as companies don’t have the resources or the time to check every claim. Perhaps red-flagging customers who appear to show repeated behaviors is a way to fight bad actors who are taking advantage of programs.

In other news…

Arm debuted on the stock market on September 14. IPO was priced at $51 a share. It jumped nearly 20% during intraday trading. At the open it was valued at almost $60 billion.

Happy weekend to you all.

Cheers,

Jacquie

September 13, 2023

Jacque's Post

(AN ALTERNATIVE INCOME INVESTMENT TO BONDS)

September 13, 2023

Hello everyone.

Many of us are on the lookout to increase our income.

There are some ways to do this.

We know with interest rates surging our cash in savings accounts receive higher yield and 90-day T-bills also offer a good 5%+ yield.

But is there anything else besides Bonds where investors can find robust returns?

Preferred stocks are one option that comes to mind. Both my mother and I owned these in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. They combine elements of stocks and bonds in one investment.

Preferreds are attractive because they provide the stability of fixed-dividend payments, which is bond-like, but they also offer equity like appreciation. So, it is a nice balance. (Note, that the equity price appreciation is often lower than common stock.)

Bonds are offering 5%+ right now, but a preferred stock gets investment grade security that yields 6.5% - which is solid income – without taking on too much credit risk.

Most investors are attracted to preferred stocks because they offer more consistent dividends than common shares and higher payments than bonds. Preferreds are issued with a fixed par value and pay dividends based on a percentage of that par, usually at a fixed rate. Let’s say that a preferred stock had a par value of $100 per share and paid an 8% dividend. To calculate the dividend, you would need to multiply 8% by $100 (the par value), which comes out to an annual dividend of $8 per share. If dividend payments are made quarterly, each payment will be $2 per share.

One downside of preferreds is that they don’t have the same voting rights as common shareholders. The company is not beholden to preferred shareholders the way it is to traditional equity shareholders.

To recognise a preferred stock, look for a P at the end of the ticker symbol.

There are four types of preferred shares:

Convertible, Cumulative, Non-Cumulative, Participatory:

Convertible shares are preferred shares that can be exchanged for common shares at a fixed rate. This can be very lucrative for preferred shareholders if the market value of common shares increases. (This is the type of preferred shares my mother and I held). Once the shares have been exchanged the shareholder gives up the benefit of a fixed dividend and cannot convert common shares back to preferred shares.

Cumulative preferred shares have a clause that protects the investor against a downturn in company profits. If revenues are down, the issuing company may not be able to afford to pay dividends. Cumulative shares require that any unpaid dividends must be paid to preferred shareholders before any dividends can be paid to common shareholders. If a company guarantees dividends of $10 per preference share but cannot afford to pay for three consecutive years, it must pay a $40 cumulative dividend in the fourth year before any other dividends can be paid.

Non-Cumulative shares do not entitle an investor to missed dividends. (If one year the company decides not to pay dividends, they won’t pay it the next year. As a result, the investor loses his or her right to claim any unpaid dividends.) Interest on a non-cumulative deposit is paid on a regular basis, whereas interest on a cumulative deposit is paid at maturity.

Participatory Preferred shares provide an additional profit guarantee to shareholders. All preference shares have a fixed dividend rate, which is their chief benefit. However, on top of that chief benefit, participatory shares guarantee additional dividends in the event that the issuing company meets certain financial goals. So, for example, if the company has a really good year and meets a predetermined profit target, holders of participatory shares receive dividend payments above the normal fixed rate.

Instead of looking for single stocks that offer preferreds, you could look at SPDR ICE Preferred Securities ETF (ticker: PSK), which yields 6.5%.

You could also look at ETF’s that focus on dividend paying stocks which offer another avenue for income. Pro-Shares S&P Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is one that comes to mind. It’s an $11.65 billion fund that tracks the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index. The yield is 1.95% and year to date return is 4.43%.

The yield doesn’t appear crash hot when you first see it, but long-term, you have to remember this is stock investing, and therefore you get the opportunity for price appreciation. So, over the long term you will most probably receive better returns those bonds.

The much talked about recession that may happen or may not happen, whether it be hard, soft or in the middle of those descriptions is background noise at the moment, but it is always wise to hold high quality companies in a stock portfolio, and companies that have dividends which keep growing tend to be those high-quality companies.

Happy Wednesday.

Cheers

Jacquie

September 11, 2023

Jacque's Post

(TO RETIRE OR NOT TO RETIRE)

September 11, 2023

Hello everyone,

We all think about it sometimes – retiring. What we would do, how we would spend our time, places we would see, hobbies we would take up, and causes we would support and become involved in.

But sometimes I hear that the reality doesn’t measure up to our idealized vision of the future.

One of the biggest cons I hear about is the loss of meaning in a person’s life. People retire and they think “now what”. Some people move into another career, with far less stress, while others have trouble finding that sense of peace and joy they were aiming for when they retired. This can lead to negative effects on mental health. Of course, then there could also be many years of low income, which limits the choices available to the retiree.

However, there are some studies that suggest that retiring early can actually lengthen your life. In a 2017 study in the Journal of Health and Economics in Amsterdam economists showed that male civil servants over the age of 54 who retired early were 42% less likely to die over the subsequent five years compared to those who continued working. The reasons were twofold: retiring frees you up allowing you more time to concentrate on and invest in your health. That could be sleeping more, exercising more, or addressing health issues promptly by seeing your GP. And secondly, work can be stressful, and retirement can alleviate that stress. We all know that stress can lead to hypertension, a risk factor for various potentially fatal conditions. Positive health effects of retirement have also been found by studies using data from Israel, England, Germany, and other European counties.

I think we would all agree that doing some sort of work gives your life meaning and purpose. Advice from a Japanese doctor and longevity expert who lived until 105 is “Don’t retire.”

Being in a work environment can keep your mind and, in some cases, your body active. If you work alongside others, that might also provide a sense of belonging. Social isolation is linked to cognitive decline and even death. Working can offer people a sense of purpose, which has a host of health benefits, including a healthier heart and lower risk of dementia. One study found that the longer you work, the lower your risk for dementia.

Of course, you have the option of volunteering after you retire. Sharing your skills with those who need your help. This can be very fulfilling work and can benefit you immensely because you are supporting a cause you are passionate about.

For those who choose to retire early, you need to keep challenging your mind. Learning a language or learning a new technology will keep your cognitive ability alive and well.

Leaving your job can come at a cost, but it does give you more free time. There are always trade-offs. If you spend that time wisely, you might be able to prolong your life.

Enjoy your week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

September 8, 2023

Jacque's Post

(MARKET MOVEMENTS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD WITH THIS METHOD)

September 8, 2023

Hello everyone,

We have all heard of technical analysis and how it can fine-tune our entries into and exits out of trades.

I’m sure many of you have heard of moving averages, (RSI) Relative Strength Index, (MACD) Moving Average Convergence Divergence, Fibonacci, Elliott Wave theory, and Stochastics.

But have you ever heard of the Wyckoff Method?

What is the Wyckoff Method?

The Wyckoff Method is a technical analysis approach to the markets that investors can use to decide when to buy and sell. The Wyckoff market cycle reflects Wyckoff’s theory of what drives a stock’s price movement. The method is based on the premise that stocks and markets move in predictable cycles. Wyckoff identified nine primary cycles, each of which has a characteristic pattern of price movement. The approach is relatively simple: when well-informed traders want to buy or sell, they carry out processes that leave their traces on the chart through price and volume.

There are four phases of a Wyckoff market cycle: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.

At the top of the markup phase, another event is expected to happen – the Wyckoff distribution phase where the buying pressure ends, and smart traders take their profits and close their positions.

The Wyckoff Method is based on three laws: the law of Supply and Demand, the law of Cause and Effect, and the law of Effort vs. Result.

The Law of Supply and Demand states that the price of a stock is determined by the balance between the supply of shares available for purchase and the demand for those shares. When demand for a stock is high, the price will rise, and when supply is high and demand is low, the price will fall.

The Law of Cause-and-Effect states that every price move has a cause, whether it is a fundamental development or market speculation. By identifying the cause of a price move, traders can better understand the likely direction of future price movements.

The Law of Effort vs Result states that the market moves in trends and that these trends are characterised by periods of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. The effort, or the amount of buying or selling pressure, and the result, or the price movement, can be used to identify the stage of the trend and make informed trading decisions.

The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Wyckoff (1873-1934). It consists of a series of principles and strategies initially designed for traders and investors and can be applied to all financial markets.

Wyckoff started as a stockbroker at the age of 15 and by the age of 25 he already owned his own brokerage firm.

Through his observation, while working as a broker Wyckoff noticed the manipulations the big operators carried out and with which they obtained high profits.

He stated that “it was possible to judge the future course of the market by its own actions since the price action reflects the plans and purposes of those who dominated it.”

Enjoy your weekend.

Cheers,

Jacquie

September 6, 2023

Jacque's Post

(MICROFINANCE CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE)

September 6, 2023

Hello everyone,

I came to understand a lot about microfinance when I was living in the U.K. while my son was at school there. My sister-in-law runs a charity based in Uganda. She saw first-hand the difference microfinance made for women in rural Ugandan communities. During many of our lengthy discussions about her experiences with these Ugandan women, I came to appreciate the power of microfinancing and how empowering it is for women in undeveloped parts of the world and developed parts of the world.

What is Microfinance?

Microfinance is typically seen as a financial service that many financial institutions and non-.

profit organisations provide to an individual or group of people who are excluded from traditional banking services. Many microfinancing entities offer small portions of working capital loans as credits. The small portions of capital loans are called microloans or microcredits.

Types of microfinancing.

Microcredit is a part of the larger microfinance industry which focuses on providing individuals having low income with credit, savings, insurance, and other possible financial services. The interest on the loan and the amount of the loan will depend on the size of the business and whether it is in an urban or rural area. For example, a farmer may require small funds to buy seeds for the season. In this case, the microcredit institution or non-profit can offer the farmer small lines of credit and small loans.

Microloans are short term loans in small amounts for entrepreneurs, small business owners, who need an injection of capital to start a business. These loans can also be used to pay salaries of newly appointed employees or simply for maintaining cash flow. The main purpose of these loans is to promote socio-economic development and support new start-ups.

Microinsurance targets people in the informal sector and is available for people on low incomes. Microinsurance can help in one-time events such as a day trip or emergency health requirements. It is available to people who hold few or no assets. It may be used to cover an agricultural crop.

Micro savings are the savings accounts that allow individuals and businesses to save money in smaller amounts or increments. Usually has zero service fees and flexibility on withdrawals.

The main characteristics of Microfinance:

Collateral is rarely required. Many microfinancing institutions offer collateral-free financing services to individuals and businesses.

Most borrowers have low incomes. The purpose then is to provide financial assistance to people – businesspeople or entrepreneurs - who do not have access to easy banking solutions.

The type and amount of the loan varies according to location and business. Microfinancing institutions usually provides lines of credit and loans in smaller amounts. The amount may vary depending on the type of business and the location.

Loan tenure is usually short. Individuals can repay the amount in smaller installments. The borrowers repay the amount of the loan within the time that micro-financing institutions decide.

The purpose of microfinancing is to generate business income for people in undeveloped parts of the world.

Benefits of Microfinance

Microfinance can help small businesses and individuals in both financial and social ways. They create self-dependency and sustainability in the economic aspects of their business. Microfinance motivates entrepreneurs and gives them the confidence to start a small business. It also helps individuals spend their savings on basic requirements, such as installing power or other necessary goals. With the help of microfinance, small businesses and individuals can put their ideas into reality. Microfinance provides security, economic growth, and business opportunities.

Provide accessibility. Imagine you were a woman living in rural Uganda with six kids. You cannot afford medication for your chronic ailments, education for your children, or birth control pills to stop having children. You have no identification papers that we mostly take for granted. I’m talking about a birth certificate, driver’s license, etc. Arguably, there are many, many women in Uganda who have zero assets and often fail to get loans from major banks. They also don’t have the necessary paperwork or certifications traditional banks require for loans. Microfinance makes it easier for these individuals to get financial assistance.

Microfinancing offers better loan repayment to women entrepreneurs. So, this helps empower women in their communities.

Microfinancing provides education opportunities. Many small families in rural areas depend on farming for their income. This can make it difficult for them to invest a lot of money in the education of their children. Additionally, such families may require men at the farm, so their children usually work with them. In such cases, microfinance can help families to focus on providing better education to their children.

Microfinancing can help create job opportunities. Microfinancing often provides businesses with an opportunity to create employment. Businesses can hire employees for different job roles. A business properly funded through microfinance can create local job opportunities can help in local economic growth.

Relieving financial burdens when starting a new business is made possible through microfinancing. Anyone knows that the immediate costs of a new business venture can create stress and worry. Microfinancing reduces monetary issues by providing them with financial services that allow them to pay their monthly bills. Therefore, with the heavy lifting done by microfinance, the business owner can focus on improving products and services for his/her target audience. It follows then that entrepreneurial activities become less stressful and allow other community members to engage in such businesses.

Have a great week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

September 1, 2023

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S AUGUST 30, 2023, WEBINAR – “HIGHER FOR LONGER.”)

September 1, 2023

Hello everyone,

Webinar Title: Higher for Longer

John believes there is an upside move coming as there is big money on the sidelines waiting to buy the next dip.

September 12-14th Summit – highly educational, prizes, please join us.

San Diego September 6 Luncheon – Join John and other concierge members at a waterfront restaurant.

Trade Alert Performance: -4.70% for August. Stopped out of long position in TLT before sell-off down to 92. Now have a cushion of cash.

92.45% trailing one-year return.

48.15% average annualized return.

No Positions – 100% cash.

Method to My Madness

John is looking for TLT to get down to around 92 where he will issue LEAPS.

He has ignored all the hype about sells on Tesla.

Funds have shown record underperformance this year.

The next big dip is the one you buy, with $5.6 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines.

John argues that stocks could rally for 6-9 months after that. Looking for a hot economy for 2024.

Tech is completing a sideways “time” correction and will lead the next leg of the bull market, now 10 months old.

Bonds may have bottomed – buy LEAPS on the next dip.

Precious metals and commodities should be at the top of any “buy” list to cash in on an economic recovery.

Housing is starting a comeback, 20% of the U.S. economy.

Oil is getting ready for an upside breakout to $100/barrel.

Patience is a virtue – let the market come to you.

Global Economy

Powell says it’s “higher for longer.”

August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to come in at a weak 175,000.

September 10 – Inflation Read – if we get a rise in inflation, we could get a sell-off. May be a good entry point.

Industrial production rises – 1.0% in July, the second best read since January.

Chinese profits continue to slump – down 6.7% YOY in July. Youth unemployment exceeds 20%.

Strikes threatening Detroit, as the United Auto Workers call for a vote, demanding a 40% wage increase over four years.

Market Timing Index – chopping around 50. Do nothing territory.

Possibility of black swan in September/October.

Stocks

Weekly Jobless Claims down 10K - strong economy.

On John’s travels, he noted that a large proportion of London’s cabs have gone electric.

John is in cash – no trades. Waiting for the next big dip.

Waiting for the Fed to make its move. Will rates be Up, Down, or Paused?

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) posts record profit – with profits up 38%.

Microsoft – looks to double in the next three years.

Advised all members to take profits on U.S. Steel.

John’s BRKB LEAPS are up 50%.

S&P – looking for a lower low and then a year-end rally to take us up to 480 or 500.

A drop of 17+% down to 380 is possible if the inflation number is bad.

Time correction on Apple, Meta, and Netflix.

Nvidia (NVDA) hits an all-time high. The target is 1000.

John believes UPS could be fully automated in five years’ time making all staff redundant.

Looks like a good entry point on FCX.

Walt Disney is out of favour.

Health Care is a buy here.

Morgan Stanley – a great buy here.

Japanese stocks are making a killing off a weak yen.

Bonds - Looking for the Double Bottom

10-year Treasury yields hit a new 16-year high at 4.38%.

The U.S. Budget Deficit is climbing once again increasing Treasury Bond Sales.

The whole falling interest rate/rising bond price trade has been delayed for six months which is thanks to the Fitch downgrade and hotter-than-expected economic growth at 2.40% for Q2.

Keep buying 90-day T bills, now pushing a 5.31% risk-free yield.

Still looking like 3.50% 10-year yield by end of 2023.

Junk Bonds ETFs (JNK) and (HYG) are holding up extremely well with a 6.5% yield.

Bonds (TLT) still likely to hit $110 by year-end.

A hot inflation number will be a big negative.

Foreign Currencies

“Higher for Longer” gives an adrenaline shot for the US$ taking it to new 2023 highs.

Yen headed to new multi-year lows at $150.

Investors flee to safe-haven short-term investments.

“Higher for Longer” delays the first rate cut to March or even June.

Collapse of the dollar is now a 2024 story.

Aussie dollar collapse prompted by slowing Chinese economy not buying their energy or commodities.

Buy FXE, FXB, FXA on big dips. Avoid (FXY).

Aussie now at around 64.74 – headed for parity.

Energy and Commodities – on a roll

Natural gas is now trading in new higher range awaiting a breakout.

An Australian strike shut down on LNG export facility still looming.

Russian output down 800,000 b/d since January due to sanctions and sinking tankers.

Unilateral Saudi 1 million b/d cut in June worked.

Oil trading at new higher range at $78-$85.

China expects LNG price spike later this year due to coming supply shortages and a recovering economy.

Buy all energy on dips.

FCX – Buy

Precious Metals

“Higher for Longer” knocks the wind out of the precious metals rise.

Interest rate rises in Europe and Australia aren’t helping either.

Gold headed for $3000 by 2025 but will back off from new highs first.

The drivers for the gold rally will be falling interest rates and the demise of crypto.

Silver is the better play with a higher beta.

Russia and China are also stockpiling gold to sidestep international sanctions.

Severe short squeeze in copper is developing, leading to a massive price spike later in 2023 once the Chinese economy comes back online.

John will visit Ukraine in three weeks’ time. He will issue a report and video on Ukraine war.

GOLD stock shows great new LEAPS opportunity.

Real Estate

Existing home sales drop again demolished by record high mortgage rate.

July saw sales decline by 2.2% to a six-month low on sales of 4.15 million units.

Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales fell 16.6% on year-on-year basis in July.

China’s largest real estate developer goes bankrupt, crushing Asian stock markets along with it.

July Housing starts come in steady at up to 4.0% at 1.45 million.

Building permits were unchanged. June numbers were revised down big.

Home builders’ sentiment dives on record mortgage highs, down 6 points to 50 in August.

Trade Sheet

Stocks – buy big dips at the bottom of the range.
Sell big rallies to hedge holdings.
Bonds – buy dips.
Commodities – buy dips.
Currencies – sell dollar rallies, buy currencies.
Precious metals – buy dips.
Energy – buy dips.
Volatility – sell short over $30.
Real Estate – buy dips.

Wishing you all a great weekend.

Cheers,

Jacquie

August 30, 2023

Jacque's Post

(THE COST OF CANCELLING OUT THE NOISE OF THE WORLD)

August 30, 2023

Hello everyone.

They are everywhere you look. People are wearing them. I’m not talking about the latest sneakers or the ubiquitous wristbands, I’m talking about headphones or earbuds. On public transport – trains, buses, planes, and even on scooters and bicycles, this piece of equipment is attached to the human ear. And even people just going about their daily lives in shopping centres, at the grocer, at the gym, or on a jog in the park, you can see these devices firmly nestled in the ear or over the ear, so the noise of the world is stopped, like it has become an offensive intrusion in our lives.

Where once the sounds of the world were considered benign and/or an unavoidable distraction, big business has now wrapped up noise and marketed it as a hazard to our health. I know excessive and prolonged noise is not healthy. What I am saying is that silence is now big business. Globally, the noise-canceling headphones market generated $13.1bn in 2021, a figure that is expected to more than triple to $45.4 bn by 2031, according to Allied Market Research data.

In Australia, Google searches for “noise-cancelling” and "earplugs” have steadily risen in Australia in the last five years. Earplug brands are now targeting parents by suggesting that their device will help prevent “burnout” while caring for children.

Are they helpful, and what are the costs of long-term use?

The technology that cancels out noise was first developed in the 1950s to reduce cockpit noise for pilots. Bose released the first commercially available headset in 1989, and this was also marketed for aviation. The headphones use a technology known as active noise control: a microphone picks up ambient sounds and an amplifier produces sound waves that are exactly out of phase. The result, when the opposite sound waves collide, is a canceling out of noise. They appear to work best for low-frequency sounds less than 1kHz, such as the roar of an airplane engine, the drone of road traffic, or the hum of an air conditioning unit.

We all know that too much noise is harmful to hearing, but it is also harmful to our broader physical health. Long-term pollution has been linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease, including heart attack deaths and depressive symptoms. Strict guidelines stipulate that workers should not be exposed to more than the average of 85dB of noise – think of the noise of a blender – over eight hours.

Of course, there are certain settings where earplugs are necessary to prevent hearing loss, such as on building sites, in the military, at concerts, or in very loud work environments.

But in a recreational use setting, headphones can contribute to hearing loss when listening volumes are too high. As yet, we don’t have any regulations about the use of headphones or earbuds around recreational noise. Without us even realizing it, we may be damaging the neurons that attach to the sensory cells in the ear. These nerves that transmit information about listening in noise are the first to be damaged …. And research shows that a clinical audiogram may not detect this.

Many studies have shown that constant earplug wearing can result in new-onset tinnitus. It was found in one experiment that the tinnitus people developed was felt as “high-pitched”, which corresponded to the range the earplugs were blocking. Professor David McAlpine, academic director of Macquarie University Hearing in Australia argues that if you “stop putting sound into your ears… your brain overcompensates by turning up its internal gain.” Furthermore, McAlpine comments that “it completely alters your neural pathways.” So McAlpine sets us straight by saying that “monkeying around with the sound energy going into your ears is monkeying around with what your brain evolved to be doing.”

Workplaces are often noisy environments and pose a distraction to many employees. The pandemic forced many of us to work from home, and we came to realize how much noise we had been putting up with. But simply wearing noise-cancelling headphones at work should not be the broad solution to work noise. The design of the workplace needs to be addressed to incorporate areas where focused work can be done in quiet zones, while collaborative work can be done in other zones. We do have the “quiet carriage” on trains, so why not in offices and workplaces?

Much more research needs to be done in this area, but it seems to me that when we start to interfere with nature and how the human body is meant to work, negative consequences can manifest. Whether or not these devices do us harm, big business will still market them as a way to deal with the noise in our modern world and profit from it.

Cheers,

Jacquie

August 28, 2023

Jacque's Post

(THE MARKET APPEARS TO BE IN A CONSOLIDATION PHASE AS INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO BITE)

August 28, 2023

Hello everyone,

Welcome to a new week. A Non-Farm Payroll week. And the week after the Fed informed us that interest rates would keep rising. The hype about Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings was well and truly put in its place once Powell at Jackson Hole started his speech. Many are now scratching their heads – is this a bull or bear market?

It’s complicated. This year through July, the S& P has risen 19.5% for a total return, including dividends, of 20.7%. When the market hit its bottom on Oct. 11, 2022, and then rose into June 2023 to gain 20%, many thought that a new bull market had begun. But alas, the markets had other ideas. This pause in August has been a healthy lull – which may continue into September. Only in a fantasmagorical land would the market continue up without a pause. Let me remind you, we are part of the real world and markets will take a breath when they have run too hard. They are also responding to interest rate movements and other fundamental data. So, let’s interpret the market movement as a non-trending market, which is in a period of consolidation.

Are you anxious about the market movements? Then step back from your micro analysis of the markets and take the macro view. I often rant about taking the big picture view of the market because investors sometimes sell their stocks when markets are drifting or correcting off their highs. And when the market has fallen quite substantially, many investors are often too nervous to buy. There are times when we would all like to grab the market and shake it out of its annoying directionless movements, but the market always knows the way. We just must be patient enough to follow and understand there is a time to have a break and a time to buy. The time to sell is an individual thing because it depends on whether you are short-term focused or investing for the long term.

I am bullish on the markets in the long term.

If you are looking for somewhere to put some funds now, 90-day T-bills are a good idea. Make sure you hold some cash, so you can make great stock buys/option trades as we near the end of this consolidation phase of the market.

Since interest rates started rising many people worldwide have been struggling with the cost-of-living pressures. People in the U.S. and elsewhere are tossing up whether to pay the utility bill or buy food, students are doing without many things, so they can buy textbooks and retirees are canceling overseas travel in favour of shorter breaks in their own country. Yet, many businesses are short of staff. And they will probably stay that way. Who is going to work for $7.25 an hour when you may be able to drum up some business working in an online platform like Fivver or Superprof for triple that amount? Furthermore, Gen Z, and other generations increasingly see the financial markets as a way to invest and earn some cash flow. The pandemic was a jolt to the world economy, and people are now deciding what they are worth and sending that sentiment out to the community.

Housing is another area that shows a picture of extremes. I have just read about a 71-year-old woman who has rented a house for 25 years, and at the beginning of August, she received an eviction notice. The rate of homelessness in Australia has become extreme. And the statistics are startling. About 19,300 Australians aged 55 or over are currently homeless, and 440,000 older households will be unable to find or afford suitable housing by 2031 as shown by research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. The research goes on to show that the total number of people aged 55 or over with a mortgage debt is 1,504,793, a 63% increase in 10 years. The Australian retirement system is built on the assumption or the expectation that older people will own a home by the time they retire. This is increasingly not the case.

Some housekeeping:

As per your request on the survey, I connected many of you with your peer last week. I hope you have made contact and find the connection helpful. If you would like to be set up with a buddy to learn more about the markets and trading, please drop me an email to request it. My email is munroj1461@gmail.com

I will be holding a Zoom on Thursday this week. Although I will send out a blanket invitation to everyone, you are welcome to drop me a note and let me know if you can attend.

I am still working on the social get-together date.

Impact of interest rates and inflation on the country.

Wishing you all a great week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

August 25, 2023

Jacque's Post

(FOR HIS 18TH BIRTHDAY MY SON WANTS A *%$#&?)

August 25, 2023

Hello everyone,

My son, Alex, turns 18 next month and so is officially classed as an adult. So, I asked him what he wanted for his significant birthday.

I expected the most common requests: money, new iPhone, clothes, etc.

But he responded: a trading account in his name (which I will fund together with his savings)

I said, ok, that’s easy. Did anyone here ask for that from their parents when they turned 18?

But after we open that account, the real education starts. How many parents have tried to advise their adult teenagers how to manage their finances only to be met with offhand remarks, ridicule, rebukes, or sometimes even just plain disinterest? I imagine many parents have been blindsided by this old comment from young adults: “You invested in this stock/investment, and lost money, so why should I listen to you.”

Thankfully, my son and I have come to an understanding, whereby he will liaise with me before he invests/places a trade. This ensures that we, as a family, are moving in the same direction and are not at odds with one another, which can make achieving an end goal very difficult.

There are dozens of books in the world on finance and how to manage your money. But if you wanted one for young adults, I would recommend you look at the following: I Want More Pizza: Real World Money Skills for High School, College, and Beyond by Steve Burkholder.

Primary topics discussed include saving, spending, prioritization, goal setting, compound growth, investing, debt, credit cards, student loans, mental blocks, and taking real-world action.

Teaching young adults about anything, especially financial education, should be done in small chunks of time. Focus for about 20 minutes on a topic and then break. This ensures what is shared is taken in and processed. After all, does an 18-year-old want to hear your well-meaning advice for extended periods? Most young adults are easily distracted by other things going on in their lives.

The important things a teenager turning 18 can do/should know:

1) Open a bank account.
2) Open a credit card.
3) Understand their expenses.
4) Avoid debt at all costs.
5) Understand that there are dozens of ways to make money.
6) Get a job.
7) Be Careful Who You Trust.
8) You Don’t Have to Have It all Figured Out.
9) Take responsibility for Your mistakes.
10) Be kind to others and yourself.

I will also encourage Alex to keep a trading journal so that he can see where his profits and losses occurred. And he can also make notes on each trade he does. It’s a good habit to start and keep.

Beside the Thames in Twickenham, U.K. this past summer

The Fed remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday could cause some volatility in the markets. Hang on!

Wishing you all a wonderful weekend.

Cheers,

Jacquie