International Women’s Day

March 8, 2023

Hello everyone,

International Women’s Day has rolled around again. Women across the world use this day to come together to celebrate and rally for equal treatment and representation. It is also a day to celebrate female achievement, to encourage and inspire one another, and to thank the women in our lives for their contribution to society.

The day’s origins date back to 1908, when thousands of women marched through New York City, demanding better working hours and pay. A year later, the Socialist party of America declared a Women’s Day.

While some glass ceilings have been shattered, others remain.

Let’s look at the achievements of women in U.S. history.

March 31, 1776: In a letter to her husband, Founding Father John Adams, future first lady, Abigail Adams makes a plea to him and the Continental Congress to “remember the ladies and be more generous and favourable to them than your ancestors…”

July 19-20, 1848: In the first women’s rights convention organized by women, the Seneca Falls Convention is held in New York, with 300 attendees, including organizers Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Lucretia Mott. Sixty-eight women and 32 men sign the Declaration of Sentiments, which sparked decades of activism, eventually leading to the passage of the 19th Amendment granting women the right to vote.

January 23, 1849: Elizabeth Blackwell becomes the first woman to graduate from medical school and become a doctor in the U.S. Born in Bristol, England, she graduated from Geneva College in New York with the highest grades in her entire class.

Dec 10, 1869: The legislature of the territory of Wyoming passes America’s first woman suffrage law, granting women the right to vote and hold office. In 1890, Wyoming is the 44th state admitted to the Union and becomes the first state to allow women the right to vote.

October 16, 1916: Margaret Sanger opens the first birth control clinic in the United States. Located in Brownsville, Brooklyn, her clinic was deemed illegal under the “Comstock Laws” forbidding birth control, and the clinic was raided on October 26, 1916. She closed the clinic eventually after further threats and eventually founded the American Birth Control League in 1921 – the precursor to today’s Planned Parenthood.

April 2, 1917: Jeanette Rankin of Montana, a longtime activist with the National Woman Suffrage Association, is sworn in as the first woman elected to Congress as a member of the House of Representatives.

August 18, 1920: Ratification of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is completed, declaring “the right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.”

May 20-21, 1932: Amelia Earhart becomes the first woman, and second pilot ever to fly solo nonstop across the Atlantic.

December 1, 1955: Black seamstress Rosa Parks refuses to give up her seat to a white man on a bus in Montgomery, Alabama. The move helps launch the civil rights movement.

May 9, 1960: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves the first commercially produced birth control pill in the world, allowing women to control when and if they have children.

June 10, 1963: President John F. Kennedy signs into law the Equal Pay Act, prohibiting sex-based wage discrimination between men and women performing the same job in the same workplace.

July 2, 1964: President Lyndon B. Johnson, signs the Civil Rights Act into law; Title VII bans employment discrimination based on race, religion, national origin, or sex.

June 30, 1966: Betty Friedan, author of 1963’s The Feminine Mystique, helps found the National Organisation for Women (NOW), using grassroots activism to promote feminist ideals, lead societal change, eliminate discrimination, and achieve and protect the equal rights of all women and girls in all aspects of social, political and economic life.

January 22, 1973: In its landmark 7-2 Roe v. Wade decision, the U.S. Supreme Court declares that the Constitution protects a woman’s legal right to an abortion. In June 2022, the Supreme Court overturned the ruling.

July 7, 1981: Sandra Day O’Connor is sworn in by President Ronald Reagan as the first woman to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. She retires in 2006, after serving for 24 years.

June 18, 1983: Flying on the Space Shuttle Challenger, Sally Ride becomes the first American woman in space.

July 12, 1984: Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale names U.S. Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (N.Y) as his running mate, making her the first woman vice presidential nominee by a major party.

March 12, 1993: Nominated by President Bill Clinton, Janet Reno is sworn in as the first female attorney general of the United States.

January 23, 1997: Also nominated by Clinton, Madeleine Albright is sworn in as the nation’s first female secretary of state.

January 4, 2007: U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female speaker of the House. In 2019, she reclaims the title, becoming the first lawmaker to hold the office two times in more than 50 years. She stepped down from the leadership role in 2022.

January 24, 2013: The U.S. military removes a ban against women serving in combat positions.

July 26, 2016: Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman to receive a presidential nomination from a major political party.

January 20, 2021: Kamala Harris is sworn in as the first woman and first woman of colour vice president of the United States.

I think we have come a long way, but there is still a long journey ahead.

Challenges are many, and change will be incremental.

Women need to stay the course.

Enjoy your week.

Cheers,

Jacque

February 25, 2023

Hello everyone.

Have you ever been given a present in the form of a Gift Certificate? Have you always converted it to a physical gift? It seems that in the U.S. there are billions of dollars’ worth of unclaimed Gift Certificates. I presume it is the same in Australia and the world over.

I know my son has a $100 gift certificate that he has not claimed. So, why do we do it?

We’re not interested in the type of gift.
We can’t be bothered to convert it.
Stuck it in the draw and forgot about it.
Threw it out by accident.
Don’t know how to claim the gift.

Whatever it is, companies offering these gifts are doing very well.
Perhaps, we should go back to the cash in the envelope idea. Everybody loves cash, right? Who doesn’t appreciate a $100 or $50 bill in a Christmas/Birthday card?

It might appear that we haven’t given any thought to the gift, or the person is just too difficult to buy for, or we didn’t have time to shop, but remember cash is an asset, and you can do anything you like with that asset. Not so with a Gift Certificate from a particular company. You have to spend it with them.

Anyway, it’s just a suggestion.

To the markets…

And haven’t they been messy of late.

The S&P 500 is in a complex market correction. Corrective weakness can extend towards the area of 3800/3750 before the next bull rally begins.

Gold – the corrective sell-off is still in progress. The same for silver. Likely downside targets in Gold are 1800/1760/1730. Then John will begin sending out trade alerts to buy Gold and Silver.
If you are watching Bitcoin, it is also correcting. We may see the $19,000 area, before the next move up.

The US$ will rally a little more and the Euro, Pound, Aussie, NZ$ will all fall as this takes place. But this move is setting up for a fall in the U.S.$ in the next little while.

It’s been snowing in southern California. How bizarre is that?

And last weekend, I tried my hand at making Sourdough bread without really following a recipe. Not surprisingly, it was not the full quid when it comes to sourdough bread. Too much liquid, I think. So, it’s back to the drawing board, and yes, I will make it by a recipe next time.

The Ukraine/Russia conflict rages on. The one-year anniversary has now passed. Putin – ex-KGB - is into grinding his enemies down. He’s in no hurry. But he knows the consequences of any nuclear attack, and so the war will remain a ground war. It will be a war about access to weaponry, ammunition, about managing mental fatigue, about strategic positioning, and understanding Putin’s perspective beyond Ukraine. We must stay the course.

Britain is in a bit of bother. Supply chains are choking their food supply, so grocery store shelves are starting to appear empty. Vegetables and basics…well…they are just not there. A sad dilemma for a country that was once so great. But still the education system is very good. I cannot argue with that.

Alex, my son, spent five years at an English prep boarding school from 8 years of age to 13 years. He had a ball. The education was fantastic.

Alex coming second on sports day.

Trading cards with a friend.

And you can’t forget about Grub Day on Friday.

Anyway, Happy Monday/Sunday, have a wonderful week.

Cheers,

Jacque

Sunday afternoon
February 6, 2023

Good morning/afternoon,

The next time that there is a Fed statement, non-Farm payrolls and earnings reports from big tech all in one week, John will probably take the week off and fly to a Pacific Island. You wanted volatility, you certainly got it.

The safest thing to do would be to go to cash and sit on the sidelines and watch the show.

So, what’s the market telling us now? John says that the market doesn’t care about interest rates anymore, as it believes there will be a soft landing. Large parts of the economy can operate without outside money and big tech will always make money but will rotate from large profits to smaller ones and then back to outrageously large ones again.

Furthermore, John points out that the Fed Chairman doesn’t have a clue what’s happening either, along with his 100 or so PhD’s in economics on his staff. Who foresaw the January Nonfarm Payroll Report that came in at 2.5X expectations on top of 4.5% in interest rate hikes?

It seems a new type of economy has emerged out of the ashes of the pandemic, and no one has quite figured it out yet.

Big tech appears to be replacing the Fed with an immense supply of free money in the form of immense profits.

John has met 9 of the last 13 Presidents. Eisenhower was his favourite. I’ve included here his writing about his experiences and views of each President. Worth a read.

As for me, the telephone call went out amongst the family with lightning speed, and this was back in 1962 when long distance cost a fortune. President Dwight D. Eisenhower was going to visit my grandfather’s cactus garden in Indio the next day, said to be the largest in the country, and family members were invited.

I spent much of my childhood in the 1950s and 1960s helping grandpa look for rare cactus in California’s lower Colorado Desert, where General Patton trained before invading Africa. That involved a lot of digging out a GM pickup truck from deep sand in the remorseless heat. SUVs hadn’t been invented yet, and a Willys Jeep (click here) was the only four-wheel drive then available in the US.

I have met nine of the last 13 presidents, but Eisenhower was my favorite. He, who I remember as a kindly old man, certainly made an impression on me as a ten-year-old boy.

I walked with Eisenhower and my grandfather plant by plant, me giving him the Latin name for its genus and species, and citing unique characteristics and uses by the Indians. The former president showed great interest and in two hours, we covered the entire garden. I still make my kids learn the Latin names of plants.

Eisenhower lived on a remote farm at the famous Gettysburg, PA battlefield given to him by a grateful nation. But the winters there were harsh so he often visited the Palm Springs mansion of TV Guide publisher Walter Annenberg, a major campaign donor.

Eisenhower was one of the kinds of brilliant men that America always comes up with when it needs them the most. He learned the ropes serving as Douglas MacArthur’s Chief of Staff during the 1930s. Franklin Roosevelt picked him out of 100 possible generals to head the allied invasion of Europe, even though he had no combat experience.

After the war, both the Democratic and Republican parties recruited him as a candidate for the 1952 election. The latter prevailed, and “Ike” served two terms, defeating the governor of Illinois Adlai Stevenson twice. During his time, he ended the Korean War, started the battle over civil rights at Little Rock, began the Interstate Highway System, and admitted Hawaii as the 50th state.

As my dad was very senior in the Republican Party in Southern California during the 1950s, I got to meet many of the bigwigs of the day. New York prosecutor Thomas Dewy ran for president twice, against Roosevelt and Truman, and was a cold fish and aloof. Barry Goldwater was friends with everyone and a decorated bomber pilot during the war.

Richard Nixon would do anything to get ahead, and it was said that even his friends despised him. He let the Vietnam War drag out five years too long when it was clear we were leaving. Some 21 guys I went to high school with died in Vietnam during this time. I missed Kennedy and Johnson. Wrong party and they died too soon. Ford was a decent man and I even went to church with him once, but the Nixon pardon ended his political future.

Peanut farmer Carter was characterized as an idealistic wimp. But the last time I checked, the Navy didn’t hire wimps as nuclear submarine commanders. He did offer to appoint me Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, but I turned him down because I thought the $15,000 salary was too low. There were not a lot of Japanese-speaking experts on the Japanese steel industry around in those days. Biggest mistake I ever made.

Ronald Reagan’s economic policies drove me nuts and led to today’s giant deficits, which was a big deal if you worked for The Economist. But he always had a clever dirty joke at hand which he delivered to great effect….always off camera. The tough guy Reagan you saw on TV was all acting. His big accomplishment was to not drop the ball when it was handed to him to end the Cold War.

I saw quite a lot of George Bush, Sr. who I met with my Medal of Honor Uncle Mitch Paige at WWII anniversaries, who was a gentleman and fellow pilot. Clinton was definitely a “good old boy” from Arkansas, a glad-hander, and an incredible campaigner, but was also a Rhodes Scholar. His networking skills were incredible. George Bush, Jr. I missed as he never came to California. And 22 years later we are still fighting in the Middle East.

Obama was a very smart man and his wife Michelle even smarter. Stocks went up 400% on his watch and Mad Hedge Fund Trader prospered mightily. But I thought a black president of the United States was 50 years early. How wrong was I. Trump I already knew too much about from when I was a New York banker.

As for Biden, I have no opinion. I never met the man. He lives on the other side of the country. When I covered the Senate for The Economist, he was a junior member.

Still, it’s pretty amazing that I met 9 out of the last 13 presidents. That’s 20% of all the presidents since George Washington. I bet only a handful of people have done that and the rest all live in Washington DC. And I’m a nobody, just an ordinary guy. It just makes you think about the possibilities.

Really.

It's Been A Long Road

Happy Monday.

Have an extraordinary week.

Cheers,

Jacque

Sunday afternoon
January 29, 2023

Hello everyone,

Happy Monday to you all.

It’s Fed week. So, the markets may dance around the same spot until the announcement.

Djokovic makes it to the NO. 10 Australian Open title.

A pity fresh blood couldn’t take the Cup this year.

Let’s talk about the U.S.$.

The U.S.$ surged in 2022 with the dollar index hitting a peak of 114.78 in September. At the same time, stocks have sold off due to the dollar strength, its impact on U.S. Treasury yields, and what it may mean for companies with a global footprint. Since September the dollar index has slipped and is now nearing a pivotal range. It could be argued that the DXY is now showing downside exhaustion based on weekly candle sessions, and it’s into what should be long-term support around 100-102.

History shows how big moves in the dollar can impact the whole stock market. CNBC studied the five biggest monthly gains in the Dollar Index in the last five years, and the S&P 500 posted significant losses in all but one of them.

If the dollar does bounce, let’s see if stocks can hold on to the recent gains. If they can it may be a sign that the rally has legs. If the market turns its nose up at the $ Index, watch out below!

Now for something completely different. The Australian of the Year is Taryn Brumfitt, a South Australian writer and film director, who is also a body positivity advocate. Voices are nattering in the media and online about whether she deserved it. What do you think?

Who should have been Australian of the Year if not Taryn?

Why do you think they picked her?

Why is she deemed unsuitable?

I think being a body-positive advocate would be incredibly hard. You are fighting against every media stream there is which focuses on showing unrealistic images of women that are followed by the easily influenced.

The dark side of the media – that is all media including social – is harmful to the unsuspecting individual, who endeavours to mirror images seen and share them with the world. It has a spiral effect.

The media is powerful and I think it would take more than one person one year to shift ideas.

Do you know your heritage? John told me that he has done 23and Me. Apparently, he is Italian mostly, but also has French, German, English, Irish and North African, and Cherokee Indian among others.

Do you know your roots?

Have a wonderful week.

A new month is upon us on Wednesday.

Cheers,

Jacque

Don’t Wait for Opportunity, Create it.