(AUSTRALIA CHALLENGES BIG TECH BY IMPOSING SOCIAL MEDIA BANS FOR UNDER 16’s)

November 27, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

AUSTRALIA COULD BE IN THE DOGHOUSE UNDER TRUMP’S WATCH

It seems that Donald Trump’s team finds Albanese’s move to introduce social media bans for those under 16’s a little bit “on the nose,” to say the least.  So much so that Australia could find itself hit with hefty US tariffs. 

Elon, who is not a stranger to sharing his views bluntly, has already slammed the move within hours of the bill being tabled.  “Seems like a backdoor way to control access to the internet by all Australians.”

If the bill is passed, social media companies could be hit with fines of up to $50 million if they fail to do enough to verify a user’s age on their platforms.

The changes will impact social platforms like TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, and X, but YouTube will be exempt.

Snapchat is also expected to come under the same Australian law.

A ban on social media won’t be a cure all.  Stopping someone looking at social media will not address mental health issues by itself.  It’s more complex than that.

Of course, the ban won’t stop teenagers under 16 from using social media.  They will find a way to get around it.

Here’s a way to look at the ban.

There are age restrictions on alcohol.  Having those restrictions in place at a certain age sets a standard. 

The laws would come into force 12 months after passing, and the eSafety commissioner would be responsible for enforcing the legislation.

How they are going to enforce the legislation is not yet clear.

Ultimately, more education programs about social media need to be put in place – in schools, universities, and in workplaces – to highlight the pros and cons and understand its place and function in the world at large.

Such programs would enable parents and children to develop knowledge and awareness of how to navigate these spaces safely.

We all know that the character of people who use this channel of communication can be either destructive or helpful.

Unfortunately, those who want to inflict harm find social media facilitates their malicious intent. They hide behind their anonymity.    Fake posts scammers parading around under the guise of “looking for romance” when they are really looking for the contents of your wallet.  And let’s not forget your actual friend’s Facebook page being hacked by some loser who has nothing better to do.  Or scammers who use Facebook to sell something or offer their trade services and then disappear after they receive the funds.

No doubt, with the advancement of AI, social media could morph into a smarter communication form, which may be able to better police and eradicate the “wolves in sheep’s clothing,” or at least “red flag” the post.

My 19-year-old son only uses Instagram occasionally; he doesn’t use any other social media platforms.  Discord is his platform of choice to communicate with friends.

Social media platforms should be held accountable for making sure their platform is a safe space to use.

Equally important is educating users about how to safely traverse these platforms so mental health issues do not dominate their lives.

 

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

Apologies for the late arrival of the October Zoom meeting recording.  It is still being edited.  The November Zoom monthly meeting will be held early next week.  Zoom links will be sent out in the next couple of days.

 

 

And

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S NOVEMBER 20, 2024 WEBINAR)

November 22, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE – Trading One Uncertainty for Another

 

THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS AND INVESTORS SUMMIT

December 3-5, 2024 (9:00 am – 5:00 pm EST

24 professionals will be sharing their knowledge and expertise.  They will be showing you their favourite trading strategies in all asset classes, including currencies, commodities, precious metals, and energy.

Lots of prizes.

Sign up for the link we will be sending out shortly.

 

Attendance is free.

 

PERFORMANCE

November - +15.01 to date

Since inception - +744.68%

Average annualized return - +53.02% for 16 years.

 

PORTFOLIO

Risk On

(JPM) 12/$210-$220 call spread 10%

(NVDA) 12/$117-$120 call spread 10%

(TSLA) 12/$230-$240 call spread 10%

(TSLA) 12/$250-$$260 call spread 10

(TSLA) 12/$270-$275 call spread

(MS) 12/$110-$115 call spread

(C) 12/$60-$65 call spread

(BAC) 12/$41-$44 call spread

(VST) 12/$115-$120 call spread

Risk Off

No positions

 

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

The election brought a total strategy flip.

All interest rate plays were dumped, including gold, silver, homebuilders, bonds, and REITS.

US dollar rockets at higher rates for longer.

Technology stocks fade on threats to international business.

Energy swings lower on coming overproduction and oil glut.

Buy the election winners, sell the losers.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – IN TURMOIL

Fed cuts interest rates by 0.25%, taking the overnight rate to 4.50%, but future rate cuts are now in doubt.

CPI comes in line at 2.6%, up 0.2% in October.  The Core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually.

Retail sales come in hot, up 0.4% in October.

PPU roses 2.4% YOY, some 0.2% in October.

China stimulates again with a $1.4 trillion package while signaling more economic support would come next year.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes in hot.

US Wholesale Inventories turn down in September amid a sharp decline in motor vehicle stocks.

 

STOCKS – THE NEW GAMES

Get out of all falling interest rates plays, like homebuilders, real estate, home repair, precious metals, and fixed income.

Get out of international commitment plays like defense and any exporters.

Go into deregulation plays like brokers, banks, money managers, and nuclear.

Defense stocks swing lower on Peter Hegspeth Defence appointment.

JFK Health & Human Services Appointment crushes Pharma stocks.

Morgan Stanley reverses bearish tilt.

Now predicting that the S&P 500 will reach 6,500 and possibly 7,400 in 2025.

Investment Guru Ron Baron sees Tesla at $1,200 in 5 years and at $7,200 someday.

NVDA's target could be around $180.

May see Tesla hit  $500 in 2025.

 

BONDS- BEAR MARKET

Inflation fears are the next big trade.

Since Trump’s victory, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen 20 basis points.

Bonds plunge on Trump's win, with the (TLT) down $12 from the recent high, anticipating higher for longer interest rates.

Moody’s getting ready to downgrade US on the prospect of massive Trump borrowing.

Money Market Funds top $7 trillion for the first time as bond investors flee the market.

Expect (TLT) to decline to $82 as the National Debt increases by $10 trillion.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and REITS.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – US DOLLAR REBORN

Dollar hits two-month high on rising US interest rates. Ten-year Treasuries have risen from 3.55% to 4.50%.

Higher for longer interest rates mean higher longer US dollar.

Don’t sell the US dollar until the next recession is on the horizon.

Avoid (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY).

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – CRUDE AWAKENING $60 IN PLAY

Crude Oil is now down on the Year after a precipitous selloff.

Blame a weak China, lost OPEC discipline, and overproduction by Iraq.

Avoid the worst-performing asset class in the market.

US Oil production hits an all-time high.  In August 2024, U.S. oil production hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Unlimited new drilling and opening up of federal lands will crash oil prices.

Big Oil has become more productive as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which is also known as fracking, have seen technological breakthroughs.

Russia bans Uranium Exports in response to American sanctions.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – GAME OVER

Interest rates higher for longer is a death knell for precious metals, with gold down 8.3% since November 5.

The opportunity cost of owning gold is about to rise sharply.

Gold is up 40% in a year, so it was ripe for profit taking.

$600 million in selling of gold ETF’s last week.

Gold has become the only way the average Chinese can save as they can no longer speculate in real estate or copper and don’t trust the Chinese Yuan, so there is support lower down.

Central banks in emerging market countries are continuing to buy gold, with 693 metric tonnes of buying, or $5.3 billion this year.

Avoid (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM).

 

REAL ESTATE – POST – ELECTION FREEZE

Post-election interest rate rise is postponing any real estate recovery.

Mortgage Rates are rocketing, off the back of a Trump win, taking the 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan up to 7.12%.

But transactions are coming back from a pre-election Zero for all cash transactions.

Apartment vacancies fall in Q3 for the first time in more than two years, down 0.2% to 5.3%

Renters are soaring to new all-time highs as the cost of home ownership rises beyond reach.

Average age of a homebuyer rises to 56 as prices and mortgage payments soar beyond the average working people.

That is up 7 years since July 2023.

 

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – buy the next big dip

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – stand aside

Precious Metals – stand aside

Energy – buy nuclear dips

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – stand aside

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, December 11, from Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

 

Housekeeping

The recording of my October Zoom Monthly meeting will be shared next week.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

(TRUMP AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER: THE WEST LOOKS OUT OF FAVOUR)

November 18, 2024

 

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

 

Monday, Nov. 18

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (November)

7:30 p.m. Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Previous:  N/A

Forecast: N/A

 

Tuesday Nov. 19

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Previous: 1.6%

Forecast: 1.9%

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (October)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (October)

Earnings: Walmart, Lowe’s Companies

 

Wednesday Nov. 20

2.00 a.m. UK Inflation Rate

Previous:  1.7%

Forecast: 2.2%

Earnings:  Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, TJX, Target

 

Thursday Nov. 21

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (11/09)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/16)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (November)

10 a.m.  Existing Home Sales (October)

10 a.m. Leading Indicators (October)

11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

6:30 p.m. Japan Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.5%

Forecast: 2.2%

Earnings:  Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere

 

Friday Nov. 22

2:00 a.m. UK Retail Sales

Previous: 0.3%

Forecast: -0.3%

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (November)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing (November)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services (November)

10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (November)

 

IN BRIEF

Global inflation data takes over the economic calendar this week, with critical readings from Canada, Japan, and the UK set to influence currency movements.  Market sentiment appears increasingly contrarian, with traders taking positions against the dollar’s strength despite its continued upward momentum. Nvidia reports this week, and investors will be watching keenly to see if the company can continue its stellar earnings journey.

 

Trump & Geopolitics

Come January 20, when Trump is inaugurated, we are likely to see a new world soon after – one that is quite unlike what many of us had envisaged.

Blinken states that China, Iran, and North Korea have backed Putin, and this shows that they are issuing a systemic challenge to the international order the US has led and policed since 1945, especially since 1991.

Blinken argues that if Trump leans on Ukraine to bow to Putin’s territorial and geopolitical aggression, the principles that have undergirded the international order under ‘Pax Americana ‘will be gravely abridged. That question is one prompted by Trump’s rhetoric and previous behaviour. 

Trump’s attitude to NATO does not bode well for trans-Atlantic relations or European security.  His remarks about Taiwan have raised concerns he might seek to cut a deal with China that would leave Taiwan stranded in a difficult situation.

Trump’s approach to Iran is yet to be clarified, and in relation to AUKUS, we don’t yet know how high this sits on Trump’s priorities.

The new world could be a little disconcerting, to say the least.

 

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500 – At a crossroads

The recent $6,017 high could count as a Wave 5 high.   We will only realize that with some confidence if we see a strong break below $5,697, which would then risk a sell-off back toward $5,400 over coming weeks en route to around $5,100.

If this bull market, which has thus far run for just over two years, is to extend further (both in Price & Time), then we would ideally need to see the key support at $5,697 maintained and intact.

 

GOLD – Correction in progress

We are in a Wave 4 correction presently in Gold.  It will probably take the form of a zigzag appearance, thereby forming an ABC pattern.  The c wave may find a low around the low $2,400’s or the high $2,300’s.  New highs in Gold may not be reached until next year.

 

BITCOIN – Uptrend in progress

Bitcoin has continued its rally since bottoming at $49,577 on August 5^th. 

Support:  mid $80,000’s

Target: $100,000

 

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM)

On June 21, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on Disney (DIS) ($105/$110 June 2025).

At the time, the stock was $101.52. 

And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.

Last Friday, the stock closed at $115.08. 

For those who bought the LEAPS, please check your position.  There is still time left in this trade, but if you have a good profit, you can take the money off the table.

On May 15, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on General Motors (GM) ($50/$60 June 2025)

At the time, the stock was priced at $45.03.

And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.

Last Friday, the stock closed at $57.04. 

For those that bought the LEAPS, please check your position.

 

QI CORNER

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

Scientists have been discussing ways to make Mars habitable for humans for several decades. One process that may be a possibility is a large-scale transformation of its planetary environment to become more Earth-like – a process known as terraforming.  Extensive geological evidence indicates that Mars once had a much thicker atmosphere and a warmer climate that allowed liquid water to flow across its surface.  In this sense, terraforming would represent an effort to turn back the clock of planetary time to return Mars to a warmer, wetter world.

 

 

 

CURIOUS QUESTION CORNER

Which creature would be most likely to RULE Earth should all humans die, according to scientists?

Answer:  Octopuses

World-leading experts claim the eight-limbed creatures are primed to become the dominant force on Earth should humanity die out.

In the event of a wipeout through either wars or climate change, the marine invertebrates are said to possess the ‘physical and mental attributes necessary’ to evolve into the next civilization-building species.

Professor Tim Coulson of the University of Oxford said their ‘dexterity, curiosity, ability to communicate with each other, and supreme intelligence’ means they could create complex tools to build a vast Atlantis-like civilisations underwater.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

(CRYPTO MINERS CATCH-UP AS BITCOIN RALLIES)

November 13, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

Crypto Miners will power ahead as Bitcoin rallies

Bitcoin has been rallying strongly since Trump secured the Presidency.

Bitcoin recently broke out of the flag pattern that has been forming for the past year and has rocketed to the upside.

I have been recommending a small portfolio allocation into Bitcoin and related crypto stocks for over a year now.

With Bitcoin consistently reaching new records since Election Day – a trend that is likely to continue through next year – crypto miners could start to play catch-up.

The buying opportunity is here for Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin miners are among the best investment vehicles for investors to express their bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

CleanSpark is up nearly 50% year to date.

 

Among the diversified miners, TeraWulf has soared 246% in the same period, and Core Scientific (CORZ) has rallied 407%.  (I recommended (CORZ) on August 7 this year at the price of $9.71).  It is now just over $17.00.

 

Core Scientific Weekly Chart (CORZ)

 

 

The promises made by Trump in his campaign included keeping all bitcoin mined in the U.S.

The previous administration thwarted the crypto industry as it attempted to mandate energy surveys on miners and proposed a 30% excise tax on them.

 

Private Prison Operators See a Big Move

We can understand Tesla and Bitcoin moving up strongly.  Tesla can almost be seen as a sector on its own.  But let’s dive into Prison Operators and see what their move is all about.

Shares in the leading publicly traded prison firms GEO Group and CoreCivic have jumped roughly 70% since November 4.

The gains point to the big opportunity investors see for private prison operators as Trump vows to round up and deport millions of migrants.

Trump’s first actions as president have been focused on assembling the team in charge of immigration policy, a signal it is likely to be a priority.

While Trump’s immigration policy may be sound for private prisons, it may not be good for the economy.  The housing, agriculture, and hospitality industries rely on migrants to fill laboring jobs.  Without that labour pool, the U.S. could see labour shortages, and higher wages, an environment that would not be conducive to helping remedy the housing shortage.

 

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

The Australian Government has become a big spender on quantum computing, outcompeting private capital in hopes to make Australia a world leader.

In the past 18 months, there has been a $470 million investment into PsiQuantum, matched by Queensland, a company that promises to deliver the world’s first “utility-scale” quantum computer from its Brisbane headquarters.

Global consultancy McKinsey has estimated the sector could be worth trillions within the next decade, with particular applications for problem-solving in the sciences and powering navigation and communication tools.

The first “State of Australian Quantum” report says Australia’s own quantum industry will be worth a projected $6 billion and employ 19,400 Australians by 2045.

Earlier this year, QuintessenceLabs, announced a US partnership to provide “quantum-safe cybersecurity” to government agencies.

As of August this year, there were at least 53 facilities and laboratories researching quantum technology in Australia and 38 quantum businesses headquartered in Australia.

 

 

QUIRKY CORNER

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S NOVEMBER 6, 2024, WEBINAR)

November 8, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE

Trading One Uncertainty for Another

 

ELECTION OUTCOMES

John says you lose the entire interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy

Higher inflation

Higher interest rates

Much higher national debt

Govt. shutdowns on Dem house win

Less regulation – full self-driving in US

No environmental control

Accelerated global warming

Extreme labour shortages at low-end hitting agriculture, restaurants, and construction

Democratic control of Congress in 2026

Ukraine withdrawal

Taiwan at risk

Retreat from international commitments

More concentration of wealth at the top

Earlier stock market top

Earlier recession

Earlier stock market crash

All antitrust actions cease

 

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Winners

Energy

Financials

Crypto

Tesla

Health Insurance

Vladimir Putin

 

Losers

All interest rate plays

All Bonds

Housing

Real Estate

Construction

 

TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE

November +0.30%

Since inception +729.97%

Average annualised return = +51.62%

Trailing One Year Return = +65.56%

 

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

(JPM) 11/$195/$205 call spread 10%

(NVDA) 12 $117/$120 call spread 10%

(GLD) 12 $235/$240 call spread 10%(Trade closed/Stopped out).

 

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

On Wednesday, we flip from one type of risk to another.

All interest rate plays looking at big sell-offs as John sees it.

US dollar hits one-year high.

Technology stocks still attractive for long term.

Stand by and wait for the initial election euphoria to pass.

Energy rallies on deregulation, but not oil supply.

Wait patiently now to see where the money flows.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SURE THING

Nonfarm payroll collapses at 12,000, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000.

The headline unemployment rate held at 4.1% in line with expectations.

The BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, while hurricanes also likely held back the total.

It makes a 25-bps interest rate cut on Wednesday a sure thing.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rose in September, up 0.3%, which remains above the central bank’s target.

Q3 GDP comes in weak, with real gross domestic product grew at a hardy 2.8%.

Consumer Sentiment hits 6-month high.

 

STOCKS – POST ELECTION MELT UP ARRIVES

Money Market Funds see massive pre-election inflows as investors seek to avoid promised post-election violence.

Nvidia tops $3.5 trillion as shares hit a new all-time high at $144.45.   It looks like it’s on a run to $150, then $160.

Apple iPhone Sales are lagging, according to a leading analyst, with a drop in 10 million orders expected, down to 84 million units.

McDonald's kills two in E. Coli Outbreak, linked to quarter pounders.  Avoid (MCD).

Hedge Funds ramping up risk going into the election with more equity leverage in their portfolios than they had in the beginning of the year, indicating higher risk appetite.

IMF cuts Global Growth Forecast, seeing wars and protectionism posing threats to expansion.

 

BONDS – ELECTION PLAY

Bonds plunge anticipating a Trump win, with the (TLT) down $10 from the recent high.

If he does win, expect another $10 decline to $82.  If Harris wins, expect a $10 rally.

This is the best election trade out there.

It’s a choice between Harris, who will increase the deficit by $2.5 trillion, or Trump, who will increase it by $15 trillion.

Either way, the bond market loses.

Bond Yields soar above 4.32% yield, on fears of massive deficit spending by a future Donald Trump.  Estimates of his deficits over four years go as high as $15 trillion.

Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS on this dip.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – US DOLLAR REBORN

Dollar hits two-month high on rising US interest rates.  Ten-year Treasuries have risen from 3.55% to 4.35%.

Harris rise in the polls is killing the US dollar as the prospect of falling interest rates improves.

Lower interest rates make the US dollar much less attractive to traders and investors.

This may be the last chance to sell short the US dollar at a high price.

The long-term downtrend in the dollar is still intact.

There is no way the dollar can stand up to cuts down to 3.5% by summer.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY AND COMMODITIES – OIL CRASH

Oil crashes 5% as the Israeli retaliation on Iran avoided oil facilities.

Fusion is going commercial in San Francisco with a German company, Focused Energy.

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has new nuclear move, sending all stock plays into a tailspin.

It’s a great opportunity to buy (CCJ) and (VST) on the dip.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – NEW HIGHS

Silver and Gold – consolidating until a post-election upside breakout to new all-time highs.

The white metal is a predictor of a healthy recovery and a solar rebound.

Newmont Mining dives 7% after missing Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit.

Money pours into Gold ETF’s taking gold up to new highs, at $2,761 an ounce, as hedge funds pour in.

Seasonals for the barbarous relic are now the most positive of the year.

Gold holding up in the face of big interest rate rises shows it only wants to go up.

Escalation of Middle East war is very pro-gold.

Buy (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM) on dips.

 

REAL ESTATE – PRE-ELECTION FREEZE

Virtually all real estate transactions have ceased over pre-election fears.

But they will resume on any post-election fall in interest rates.

Pending Home Sales jump 7.4% on a signed contract basis, the highest since March.

New Home Sales Jump 4.1% in September at 738,000 seasonally adjusted unit on a signed contract basis

The median home price rose to $426,300.

This despite a roller coaster month on interest rates, falling to 6.0% for the 30-year, then jumping back up to 7.0%.

Existing Home Sales drop 1% in September, a 14-year low, down to 3.84 million units annualized.

 

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – stand aside

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – stand aside

Precious Metals – stand aside

Energy – stand aside

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $30

Real estate – stand aside

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20

From Lake Tahoe, Nevada

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie