Jacque's Post Archives

October 25, 2024

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 23, 2024, WEBINAR)

October 25, 2024

Hello everyone

TITLE

“VOTE FOR ME”

PERFORMANCE

4.89% for October thus far.

+51.62% average annualized return.

+726% since inception.

PORTFOLIO

(NEM) 10/$47-$50 call spread 10%

(TSLA) 10/$200-$210 call spread 10% (trade closed, profits taken)

(DHI) 10/$165-$175 call spread 10%

No Risk Off Positions.

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

There is a global derisking going on ahead of the U.S. elections.

All interest rate plays are selling off. Bonds are discounting a Trump win, stocks a Harris win. Watch for a melt-up in both post-elections.

We are unlikely to see a more than 5% drop in indexes for the rest of 2024 because of massive cash holdings.

US dollar touches a high for the year on rising rates.

Technology stocks have recovered, with (NVDA) at highs.

Energy gets dumped on global oversupply.

Buy stocks and bonds on dips, but now it’s ALL sectors.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SLOWING

CPI comes in warm at 0.3% for September and 2.4% YOY.

Europe cuts interest rates by 25 basis points.

New Zealand cuts interest rates by 50 basis points.

US Retail Sales gained 0.4%, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August.

New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Plunges. It could be an election effect.

PPI comes in flat and up 1.8% YOY.

Social Security gets a 2.5% raise in 2025.

STOCKS – FROM STRENTH TO STRENGTH

Hedge Funds pouring into Technology stocks, such as semiconductors and hardware, at the fastest in five months amid the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

S&P500 Value Gain hits $50 trillion since the 1982 bottom.

Morgan Stanley announces blowout earnings, fuelling a 32% profit jump for the third quarter.

ASML plunges 16% on poor earnings.

Tesla gets approval to double Berlin Factory.

Global EV sales up 30% in September.

Delta warns of Presidential Election Travel dip, as fears of violence over the next two weeks keep travellers’ home.

BONDS – ELECTION PLAY

It’s a choice between Harris, who will increase the deficit by $2.5 trillion, or Trump, who will increase by $15 trillion.

Either way, the bond market loses.

Bond yields soar above 4.24% yield, on fears of massive deficit spending by a future Donald Trump presidency. Estimates of his deficits over four years go as high as $15 trillion.

US Budget Deficit tops $1.8 trillion in Fiscal 2024, which ends on October 30.

It’s the highest outside of the Covid era.

Interest on the federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, and spending grew for the Social Security retirement program, health care, and the military.

The deficit for the year ended Sept. 30 was up 8%, or $138 billion, from the $1,695 trillion recorded in fiscal 2023.

Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and (REITS) on this dip.

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DOLLAR PEAK

Dollar hits two-month high on rising US interest rates.

Dollar gets a sudden new lease on life from interest rate spike.

Higher interest rates make the US dollar much more attractive to traders and investors.

This is a short-term rally only and may be the last chance to sell short the US dollar.

The long-term downtrend in the dollar is still intact.

There is no way the dollar can stand up to cuts down to 3.5% by next summer.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC) and (FXY)

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – OIL CRASH

Chronic global oversupply finally overwhelms Middle East threats.

Air conditioning demand will rise by 280% by 2025, thanks to higher temperatures and rising incomes, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Nuclear Boom is on with Amazon Web Services announcing it has signed an agreement to explore the development of a small module nuclear reactor (SMR) as it expands its services into generative AI.

Rio Tino buys Arcadium for $6.7 billion in a bid to become one of the world’s largest lithium producers.

John’s Cameco (CCJ) trade alert went ballistic, up 25% in two weeks.

The nuclear trade is still on, with all plays hitting new highs.

PRECIOUS METALS – NEW HIGHS

Silver breaks out to the upside after a year’s long-range trade.

The white metal is a predictor of a healthy recovery and a solar rebound.

It’s a long overdue catch-up with (GLD). Buy (AGQ) on dips.

Money pours into Gold ETF’s, taking Gold up to new highs at $2,761 an ounce, as hedge funds pour in.

Seasonals for the barbarous relic are now the most positive of the year.

Gold holding up in the face of big interest rate rises shows it only wants to go up.

Escalation of Middle East war is very pro-gold.

Buy (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM) on dips.

REAL ESTATE – GRIND TO A HALT

Election has brought real estate markets to a complete halt.

Inventory is rising, and prices are falling, especially in Florida.

Single-family home builds are ticking up and are at a five-month high in September.

Permits for future construction rose only marginally, an excess supply of new homes on the market and prospective buyers holding out for lower mortgage rates.

We need lower interest rates to get more traction.

Weekly Home Mortgages Tank by 17% on the sudden rise in interest rates.

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – buy the next big dip

Bonds – buy dips

Commodities – buy dips

Currencies – sell dollar rallies, buy currencies

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – buy dips

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – buy dips

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, November 6

From Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

Cheers

Jacquie

October 23, 2024

Jacque's Post

(THE AUSSIE OUTBACK IS BEING PREPARED FOR WAR WITH CHINA)

October 23, 2024

Hello everyone

A little-known airbase in the middle of nowhere in outback Australia is being prepared by American/Australian forces for an all-out war with China. If this event comes to pass, RAAF Base Tindal will play a central role.

Ever heard of the novel We of the Never Never? The location of the novel and this Airbase are one and the same. About 300km south of Darwin, near the town of Katharine in the Northern Territory, a small army is preparing the formerly unmanned army base for the arrival of B-52 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons and, later, for American stealth bombers.

The runway has been extended to handle the West’s biggest military aircraft. Fuel bunkers full of millions of liters of jet fuel are complete. Submerged bunkers are loaded with computer equipment. Dormitories with hundreds of beds are in place. Additionally, underground power systems backed up by large Rolls Royce-made emergency generators costing millions will increase resilience if there is an attack. Construction is ongoing at the Base so that six B-52’s can be parked.

Several of Australia’s F-35A stealth jet fighters – which will eventually be 72 – are already based at Tindal. The Australian Air Force Wing Commander Fiona Pearce said that “We’re going to be big enough to take any aircraft in the world and to park and fly every different variant of aircraft.”

Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House of Representatives, described Australia as “the central base of operations” for America’s military to confront Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

Paul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, said that the military build-up in Australia was Washington’s insurance policy.

It will not only be 1950’s-era B52 bombers that will operate out of Tindal. The rapid upgrades to the base will also accommodate the US B-2 stealth heavy bomber and its long-range replacement, the B-21, which made its maiden flight last year.

The American military build-up is becoming obvious to the residents of Darwin. US Marine Osprey aircraft operated by US Marines housed in the tropical city have become a familiar sound. In addition, the sight of a US fuel dump dominates the skyline.

Not everybody is happy about this defense build-up. Some former Australian politicians are scathing of the build-up and have expressed anger at the fact that Australia would be targeted in a war between the U.S. and China. Also, the Australian public has been mostly uninformed about this strategic development.

Elisabeth Clark, the mayor of Katherine, said: “With China and everything else, you just don’t know what’s going to happen. I think people are aware we are now a target.”

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

October 21, 2024

Jacque's Post

(COMPANY EARNINGS WILL BE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK)

October 21, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Oct. 21

9:00 a.m. US Fed Speeches

10:00 a.m. Leading Indicators (September)

Tuesday, Oct 22

10:00 am Euro Area ECB Speech

10:00 a.m. Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Harker speaks in Ten Independence Mall, Philadelphia

Earnings: Verizon, General Motors, General Electric, Moody’s, Sherwin Williams, Baker Hughes, Seagate, Lockheed Martin.

Wednesday, Oct 23

9:45 am Canada Rate Decision

Previous: 4.25%

Forecast: 3.75%

10:00 a.m. Existing Home Sales (September)

10:00 a.m. Fed Beige Book

Earnings: Vertiv, Boeing, AT&T, Coca-Cola, Boston Scientific, Hilton, Tesla, Lam Research, IBM, Newmont, T-Mobile, Whirlpool

Thursday, Oct 24

4:00 am Euro Area Manuf. PMI

Previous: 45

Forecast: 45.1

8:00 a.m. Building Permits final (September)

8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/12)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/19)

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (October)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (October)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services preliminary (October)

10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (September)

11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (October)

Earnings: American Airlines, UPS, Southwest, Harley Davidson, Honeywell, Western Digital, Amazon.

Friday, Oct 25

8:30 am US Durable Goods

Previous: 0.0%

Forecast: -0.9%

Earnings: Colgate Palmolive

This week, the market is all about earnings. The results of these earnings will indicate whether stocks can keep roaring along and support the broadening we are witnessing in the market. Valuations are stretched – the S&P500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. Earnings growth expectations are lower for this season, so the market could reward stocks that beat expectations. On the flip side, a big earnings miss could disappoint and sway investor sentiment.

Whatever the market deals out, retail sales are still expected to be quite strong this holiday season, and they are expected to be influenced by hurricanes and the Election.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

Uptrend is intact. Through an Elliott Wave lens, the market is still rallying within a broad wave 5 advance.

Next Target = ~ 5, 930

Support = ~ 5,800/5,750

GOLD

Uptrend intact. No signs of exhaustion yet.

Next target = ~ $2,750/$2,770

Support = ~ $2,700/$2,680

BITCOIN

Rally in progress. In the next week or two, we are looking to break out of the large flag pattern Bitcoin has formed over the last few months.

We reached $68,000 last week, and now we should see the bullish move continue to reach higher targets.

Next Target = ~ $73,400/$81,500

Support Range lies between $67,000 to $64,500

WHERE TO ADD WEIGHT

On October 10, I recommended a list of stocks to either add weight to if you held them or to start scaling into if you didn’t own them.

Today, I’m recommending you, once again, add weight to (SLV) and start scaling into (AGQ) Pro Shares Ultra Silver. Both stocks are now breaking out of a 6-month range pattern that could be interrupted as an inverse head and shoulders, and that sets up the potential for a bullish move, which would be a continuation of the overall bullish theme in the precious metals markets.

Pro Shares Ultra Silver (AGQ)

iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

Charles and Camilla are Down Under for a brief tour. (It may be the final time Charles visits Australia).

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

TRIVIA CORNER

Answers

1/ Which country has the longest coastline?

Canada. Its coastline measures 243,042 km (151,019 miles). This includes the mainland coast and the coasts of offshore islands. Canada’s coastline borders the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans.

2/ Who was the first U.S. billionaire?

Henry Ford. He has often been referred to as “American’s second billionaire” by those who believed Rockefeller to be the first. Henry Ford reached 10-figure zone by about 1925. His net worth was estimated to be around $1.2 billion by the mid-1920s. Today, that fortune would be worth around $200 billion.

3/ Which first lady was the first to appear on U.S. currency?

Martha Washington, the wife of the first U.S. President. She was the first woman to be featured on U.S. paper currency with a solo portrait.

Cheers

Jacquie

October 18, 2024

Jacque's Post

(POWER PRODUCERS WILL BE ONE OF THE BIG INVESTMENTS OF THE FUTURE)

October 18, 2024

Hello everyone.

The bullish argument for nuclear power generation.

Vistra (VST) $127.27, Constellation Energy (CEG) $271.20, Talen Energy (TLN)$171.68, Cameco Corp. (CCJ)$56.67

There are strong trends in both energy supply and demand that support the fundamentals of existing nuclear power producers.

Beginning with the supply argument, nuclear power plants are a highly valuable and scarce asset.

Nuclear power plants are valuable because nuclear is the only source of carbon-free energy that is reliable enough to be considered "base load energy." Other sources of reliable energy are either dirty (fossil fuels), are not yet reliable (solar, wind), or are not abundant (hydro, geothermal).

The US has agreed to phase out coal and other dirty power sources over time. Coal used to account for one-third of power generation but now accounts for roughly 10%. This supply gap has largely been filled by natural gas and crude oil (see below chart). Nuclear was previously vilified as a dangerous source of electricity; however, politicians on both sides have become much more pro-nuclear in recent years as an increasingly attractive alternative. This has led to several nuclear plant extensions, talks of restarts, and new tax incentives.

Nuclear power is scarce because it is extremely costly and timely to build. Almost all US nuclear reactors were built between 1967 and 1990. Regulatory costs skyrocketed after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979. The Vogtle electric plant in Georgia was the only new nuclear plant added in the last 30 years. Vogtle took 15 years and $30 billion to build. Nuclear power plants just aren't economically viable relative to the cost of building new natural gas plants. However, this makes existing plants, like the one Talen owns, more valuable.

Moving on to the demand argument, electricity demand growth is accelerating as the US adopts electric cars and builds more data centers.

Electricity demand has historically grown in line with population growth; however, recent technology shifts have accelerated the demand on the grid. Artificial intelligence applications are more compute-intensive and, therefore, require more electricity. For example, ChatGPT uses as much as 30x more electricity per query than Google search. Research from the Boston Consulting Group projects data center energy use in the US will 3x from 130 terawatt hours in 2022 to 390 terawatt hours by 2030.

JPMorgan analysts are seeing “structural tailwinds, including manufacturing onshoring, broader electrification trends (transportation, heating, and more), as well as data center development underpinning a paradigm shift in power demand.”

Additionally, analysts see that with half of its gas generation in the Texas ERCOT grid, Vistra can also help fill a potential 40-gigawatt supply gap in the Lone Star State by 20230.

Vistra (VST) is JPMorgan’s top pick, with a price target of $178.

Vistra Energy (VST) Daily Chart

Constellation Energy (CEG) is another favourite of JPMorgan in this sector, and the investment bank believes Constellation’s industry-leading nuclear fleet is well-positioned to continue capturing long-term power contracts with data centre developers at premium prices. Its decision to restart Three Mile Island after signing a power purchase agreement with Microsoft was an industry milestone.

JPMorgan’s price target for Constellation is $342.

Constellation Energy (CEG) Daily chart

Finally, JPMorgan analysts see Talen’s multidecade agreement with Amazon Web Services to power a data centre campus with electricity generated at the Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania could help send the stock higher if it delivers the full 960 megawatts of power to AWS.

Over the next 10 years, AWS has contracted to purchase as much as 1 gigawatt of power per year for a price nearly double the rate of the wholesale power price. Amazon is willing to pay a premium to source reliable carbon-free energy for a large data center, and it will also benefit from certain tax credits associated with the project.

Finally, there may be additional opportunities for per-share value growth above and beyond the AWS deal. Talen believes there are additional opportunities to co-locate data centers next to its other power plants. Talen's capital allocation strategy of creatively monetizing existing assets while returning capital to shareholders should continue to work.

It is important to remember that there is a wide moat around the business simply because a new nuclear power plant of Susquehanna's scale cannot be replicated at a cost anywhere near the current enterprise value of Talen.

JPMorgan’s price target for Talen is $268.

Talen Energy (TLN)

Cameco Corp. (CCJ) is a great nuclear power play stock to own for the long term, too. I have been recommending this stock since early 2024.

Cameco Corp. (CCJ) Daily Chart

I would recommend owning at least two of the power produces illustrated here. Scaling in is the strategy you should use.

Earnings Results

Netflix: Earnings yesterday beat on the top and bottom lines. Ad-tier memberships jumped 35% quarter over quarter. Revenue for the full year of 2025 is expected to be between $43 billion and $44 billion. Advertising is expected to become a primary growth driver from 2026 onwards.

I recommended Netflix on January 17, 2024, when it was $480.00. I also recommended you either start scaling into the stock or add weight in Jacquie’s Post on October 10.

Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) also reported great earnings. I also recommended these stocks, or to add weight if you held them, in Jacquie’s Post on October 10.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

TRIVIA CORNER

Which country has the longest coastline?
Who was the first U.S. billionaire?
Which first lady was the first to appear on U.S. currency?

Answers in Monday’s Post.

Cheers

Jacquie

October 16, 2024

Jacque's Post

(A DISRUPTIVE MODEL COULD CHALLENGE THE BANKS)

October 16, 2024

Hello everyone

The big banks are in control, and nothing could shift their dominance, right?

Well, it might be time for a re-think of that notion.

In banking, the most potent disruptive model is coming from a group called ‘Revolut’ and it has just moved a step closer to getting an Australian banking license.

It’s just got a banking license in the UK, which means an Australian license now looks like a sure thing.

In fact, it is already making some serious inroads in the local market; the company has signed up 720,000 customers already in Australia and has transaction volumes annualized at an estimated $1bn.

Overseas, there are approximately 45 million very happy customers who have left the old banking players behind.

Revolut’s big chief, 40-year-old Russian-born Nikolay Stornosky, says he aims for the group to become the “Amazon of banking”.

So, why is Revolut such a big deal?

It began as a card service competing with operators like Western Union and quickly built up an overseas network of customers who found it faster and cheaper than traditional banks.

Revolut’s headquarters are in London. Its big breakthrough came when it got an EU license. More recently, the Bank of England license confirmed its status as a fully-fledged financial juggernaut, and it can now do everything from mortgages to deposits.

According to Matt Baxby, Chief Executive of Australian Operations, Revolut in Australia is growing at 100% a year, and that’s with a very low profile.

One outstanding feature is the security feature. It offers a once-off card number for any payment.

We are all aware of some of the trepidations we have when traveling and handing over our card numbers. Once a fraudulent operation has your number, you are in big trouble. Revolut’s “disposable card” regenerates your number after each use: problem quickly solved.

Revolut is currently estimated to be worth about $45bn off the back of a recent share sell-down, making it about one-fifth the size of CBA.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

October 14, 2024

Jacque's Post

(BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU IN YOUR CAR)

October 14, 2024

Hello everyone

This week we will see:

Many corporate earnings

US Retail Sales & industrial production data

Eurozone Inflation & UK Inflation data

China’s GDP & trade data

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, OCT 14

Columbus Day

Bond market closed

9:00 a.m. US Fed Speeches

TUESDAY, OCT 15

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (October)

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Earnings: United Airlines, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Citigroup, State Street, Goldman Sachs Group, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group, United Health Group, Charles Schwab.

WEDNESDAY, OCT 16

2:00 a.m. UK Inflation Rate

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (September)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (September)

Earnings: PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Discover Financial Services, CSX, Prologis, Morgan Stanley, Abbott Laboratories, U.S. Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, Synchrony Financial.

THURSDAY, OCT 17

8:15 a.m. Euro Area Rate Decision

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/05)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/12)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (October)

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (September)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (September)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (September)

9:15 Manufacturing Production (September)

10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (October)

Earnings: Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, KeyCorp, M & T Bank Corp., Elevance Health, Truist Financial, Huntington Bancshares, Blackstone.

FRIDAY, OCT 18

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (September)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (September)

Earnings: Schlumberger NV, Procter & Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, American Express, Ally Financial.

Driving your car is no longer a private experience – data is being shared with x, y, and z when you purchase new car brands.

Do you want companies/people to know your location when you are driving?

Do you want companies/people to know the way you drive?

Do you speed? Do you brake heavily? Do you tailgate?

More data than you can imagine is being recorded and shared with third parties in new cars produced today.

Microphones, sensors, and other internet-connected features mean cars have become all-seeing data harvesting machines dubbed “smartphones on wheels.”

Most consumers are unaware of this as car makers are not very upfront about data collection and often keep the fine print in their privacy policies vaguely worded.

Hyundai, Kia, and Tesla seem to be the worst culprits at selling data on to third parties, according to Choice Magazine.

A Choice investigation found that Kia and Hyundai, which have the same parent company, collect voice recognition data from inside their cars and sell this to the artificial intelligence (AI)software training company Credence.

Kia and Hyundai drivers – have you consented to your voice being used to train AI models?

If you are a Tesla owner, you really need to be aware of this. Images and videos from cameras inside Teslas, which have been shared with third parties, have shown Tesla customers in the nude, as well as images of crashes and road-rage incidents.

The privacy policies seem to be incredibly vague. In other words, they provide no clear guidelines on what data is being collected, how it’s being collected, and where the data is going.

Perhaps it is ambiguous for good reason – it clearly keeps the customer on the back foot while the car company and third parties are in control.

The findings by Choice investigation are like those of the US-based Mozilla Foundation, which last year found 25 car brands collected customer data ranging from facial expressions to sexual activity and where and how people drive.

Cars are no longer just transport getting you from A to B. The inbuilt technology is invasive and being shared with third parties we are not aware of.

One Queensland man backed out of purchasing a Toyota Ute earlier this year after he learned about the company’s data collection practices. Toyota collects and shares vehicle location and driver behaviour data, including scoring a driver’s acceleration, braking, and cornering behaviour during each trip.

The privacy policies that you find totally bewildering have often given car brands the option of sharing data with insurers.

Get back in control – what can you do?

If you use an app for your car, head into the app’s settings and look for any sort of data sharing options, usually named “data privacy” or data usage.”

Where possible, opt out of sharing any data with third parties and see if you can disable GPS location tracking when not in use for navigation.

Do you connect your phone to the car’s infotainment system? Be cautious. Limit the permissions you grant the car's system.

I would expect the process of deleting any data collected is unique to most car models and types.

Check out the free online resource Privacy4Cars. It offers step-by-step delete instructions for thousands of vehicles.

The website covers the UK, EU, US, and Canada. Some Australian models may not be included. The site is not perfect, but it’s better than nothing.

Governments and car buyers – their reactions.

Last month, the US moved to ban a vast array of Chinese-made cars over fears the Chinese government could spy on their drivers.

Data gathered by Chinese-made cars is the same as other car brands, but there could be a higher potential for misuse.

A double level of surveillance – commercial and government – seems rather invasive. George Orwell’s book 1984 is a stark reminder of what is happening in our modern world. Orwell certainly was a visionary and gave us all something to think about – even though we might not have given his concepts much attention at the time.

About three in four Australians disagree or strongly disagree with video or audio recordings from inside a car being collected by car companies, according to a nationally representative Choice survey conducted in June 2024.

Support services for domestic violence victims are also increasingly concerned.

Domestic violence perpetrators are using connected cars to track those who are trying to escape them.

We need to remember a car is now “a computer on wheels.”

California recently introduced legislation requiring car makers selling internet-connected cars to do more to protect domestic abuse survivors, including enabling drivers to easily turn off location access from inside the vehicle.

Last year, a woman unsuccessfully sued Tesla, alleging the company failed to act after she repeatedly complained that her husband was stalking and harassing her using the car maker’s technology, despite a restraining order.

While there are obviously some apparent negative elements to driving “a computer on wheels,” it is also clear that the utilization of data in vehicles, including both connected and autonomous vehicles, provides consumers with benefits through improvements in safety, performance, and navigation as well as supporting general user experience and servicing improvements.

Car makers and privacy laws need to be monitored closely. Make sure you read the fine print and ask questions.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500

The rally is still on track, with no signs of exhaustion yet.

Next target = ~5,930

Support = ~5790/5760

GOLD

Uptrend still intact.

Next target = ~$2,770/$2,800

Support = ~$2,630/$2605

BITCOIN

Potential for a good upside rally after Bitcoin formed a wave ii correction, which completed an (a b c) corrective move.

Next target = ~ $68,000/$73,800

Support = ~ $60,500/$58,800

QI CORNER

This graphic compares the countries and regions with the highest nominal GDP per capita in 2024 to those in 2014, based on data from the International Monetary Fund.

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

October 11, 2024

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 9, 2024, WEBINAR)

October 11, 2024

Hello everyone

TOPIC

Goldilocks on Steroids

TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE

+720.99% since inception

+51.62% average annualized return for 16 years

+62.77% Trailing One-Year Return

PORTFOLIO

Risk On

(NEM) 10/$47-$50 call spread 10%

(TSLA) 10/$200-$210 call spread 10%

(DHI) 10/$165-$175 call spread 10%

Risk Off

No Positions

Total Aggregate Position = 30.00%

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Hot September Nonfarm Payroll influences all trades.

All interest rate plays get hit – bonds, foreign currencies, gold, silver, home builders down.

Use this dip to load the boat in all these sectors.

We are unlikely to see a more than 5% drop in indexes for the rest of 2024.

Technology stocks regain the lead.

Energy spikes on Mideast and China recovery.

Buy stocks and bonds on dips, but now in ALL sectors.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – CHINA SURPRISE

Nonfarm Payroll reports come in hot, as US employers added 254,000 jobs in September.

Unemployment Rate fell to a three-month low of 4.1%.

US GDP revised up to 5.5% growth since the second quarter of 2020.

The port strike is settled with a 62% six-year settlement. The Strike cost the U.S. economy $5 billion/day, and it will take a month to restart.

EC imposes 45% Tariffs on Chinese EV’s.

ISM Services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August.

Europe to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October.

Blockbuster China Stimulus sets stocks on fire.

STOCKS – FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH

Stocks race to new all-time highs despite rising rates and Middle Eastern War.

Interactive Brokers starts US Election Forecast Trading. The opening bids were 49% for Harris and 50% for Trump.

Vistra Energy (VST) tops Nvidia as the top S&P 500 stock this year.

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) may file for bankruptcy.

Hedge Funds stampede into China on news that government agencies promised to pour $1 billion into local stock markets.

Super Micro (SMCI) splits, joining a growing list of semiconductor companies that have split their stocks.

US Car Makers get slaughtered. Avoid (GM) and (F)

Caterpillar (CAT) rallies on China stimulus and housing recovery.

Electrification is the latest hot investment theme.

BONDS – DEMOLISHED

Hot September Nonfarm Payroll demolishes bonds.

Every interest rate play gets hit hard.

Bonds will return to the long-term uptrend when we start to discount the November Fed interest rate cut.

The Yield Curve has De-Inverted, meaning that short-term interest rates have fallen below long-term ones.

Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS on dips.

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DOLLAR REBOUND

Dollar gets a sudden new lease on life, as hot September Nonfarm Payroll causes interest rate spike.

Higher interest rates make the US $ much more attractive to traders and investors.

This is a short-term rally only and may be the last chance to sell short the US$.

The long-term downtrend in the dollar is still intact.

There is no way the dollar can stand up to cuts down to 3.0% by summer.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), and (FXY).

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – OIL SPIKE

Middle East war plus Biden comments on possible Israeli bombing of Iran oil facilities give oil best week in years.

Iran produces 3 million barrels a day, 90% of which goes to China.

Its sudden loss would take oil to $95 overnight.

Saudi Arabia has 3 million barrels/day in reserve production, but it would take months to bring online.

That’s why Israel won’t attack Iran’s oil supplies, so its weapon suppliers don’t see energy supplies disrupted.

Nuclear facilities and missile factories are much more likely targets.

John’s Cameco (CCJ) trade alert rallied strongly, up 25% in two weeks.

The nuclear trade is still on, with all plays hitting new highs.

PRECIOUS METALS – NEW HIGHS

Gold hits a new high at $2,668 an ounce as hedge funds pour in.

Seasonals for the barbarous relic are now the most positive of the year.

Gold holding up in the face of big interest rate rises shows it only wants to go up.

Escalation of Middle East war is very pro-gold.

Will This Crisis Take Gold to $3000? Almost certainly, yes.

The next problem? What to do when gold hits $3000?

Most likely, it keeps going up to $4,500, as the Chinese have nowhere else to save.

Buy (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM) on dips.

REAL ESTATE – GUT PUNCH

US Home Sales Plunge, down 4.7% in August.

Mortgage Interest rates made it down to 6.07%, then popped to 6.50%.

Buyers are clearly remaining patient amid steadily declining mortgage rates.

New single-family home sales decreased last month to an annualized rate of 716,000 after rising at the fastest pace since early 2022.

The median sales price, meantime, decreased 4.6% from a year earlier to $420,000.

That marked the seventh straight month of annual price declines, extending what was already the longest streak since 2009.

Real estate should pick up once lower interest rates feed through again.

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – buy the next big dip

Bonds – buy dips

Commodities – buy dips

Currencies – sell dollar rallies, buy currencies

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – buy dips

Volatility – sell over $30

Real Estate – buy dips

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, October 23, from Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

RECORDING OF JACQUIE’S POST OCTOBER 6, 2024, ZOOM MONTHLY MEETING.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/jacquie-munro-meeting-replay-september-2024/

Cheers

Jacquie

October 10, 2024

Jacque's Post

WHERE TO ADD WEIGHT IN THE STOCKMARKET – SPECIAL ISSUE

OCTOBER 10, 2024

Hello everyone

I’m often asked where I should be adding weight in my stock portfolio.

In August, when we had that meltdown due to Bank of Japan raising rates, I suggested adding weight to Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN). Congrats to those that took the advice.

I put this list together yesterday, so you could position yourself well before the stock run into year end.

This is a Special Issue as I usually don’t publish on a Thursday.

Here’s what I think -

Once we get the U.S. election out of the road, the stock market can push all the uncertainty to one side.

(Even the conflict in the Middle East is not deterring the market thus far).

From that position, the market should become less volatile and power ahead on all cylinders.

Here’s what I suggest –

Add weight to all interest rate plays, as there should be more rate cuts in the short to medium term.

Additionally, add weight to those sectors/stocks that are China related. It is more than likely that China will continue to stimulate its economy. Xi- Jinping is very anti-capitalist, which has kept the economy, and the Chinese market subdued and stale, to say the least.

Emerging Markets – a play on falling interest rates

(EEM) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Banks

(GS) Goldman Sachs

(JPM) JPMorgan

(If you don’t own any banks, either of these stocks is a great buy)

In a falling interest rate economy, which is good for business, there will be a rising demand for loans.

Utilities

(DUK) Duke Energy

(NEE)NextEra Energy

(VST) Vistra Energy Corp.

(XLU) Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund

The AI revolution will need support from energy infrastructure, so utilities will be a growth sector going forward.

Home Builders

(DHI) DR Horton

(LEN) Lennar

(PHM) Pulte Group

(TOL) Toll Brothers

As interest rate cuts are very likely to continue, and costs subsequently decline, home builders should do well.

(If you don’t own any home builder stocks, I would be looking at DR Horton and Lennar)

Energy

(OXY) Occidental Petroleum

(XOM) Exxon Mobil

(PSX) Phillips 66

(CVX) Chevron

Energy is a hedge against inflation as oil & gas prices rise during inflationary periods. Energy stocks are a great way to play rising oil prices.

Consumer Discretionary

(NFLX) Netflix

Profitable streaming service – best in its class

Q3 earnings = October 17

Several analysts, including JP Morgan, believe Netflix can grow revenue in the mid-teens in 2024 & 2025 and low double digits in 2026. Additionally, it could further expand margins and drive multi-year free cash flow growth.

Catalysts = revenue growth from advertising.

Subscriber growth from a paid sharing initiative.

Commodities – China Play

As China is expected to continue to stimulate its economy, (FCX) and (CAT) should continue to see growth. (FCX) is a big play on copper. (But it is uncertain whether the China move has longevity).

(FCX) Freeport McMcMoRan

(CAT) Caterpillar

Healthcare

(XLV) Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund

Assets over $40.95 billion. The Health Care Select Sector Index includes companies from the following industries: pharmaceuticals; health care providers & services; health care equipment & supplies; biotechnology; life sciences tools & services; and health care technology.

Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.09% making it one of the least expensive products in the space.

12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.51%.

This year (XLE) has gained 7.03% and was up about 17.36% in the last one year (as of 03/25/2024).

Holdings: the ETF has heaviest allocation in the Healthcare Sector - about 100% of the portfolio.

Individual Holdings: UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) accounts for about 9.85% of total assets, followed by Eli Lilly (LLY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Top 10 holdings account for about 53.88% of total assets under management.

(I have already recommended Johnson & Johnson Another individual stock I would recommend would be Eli Lilly for the long term).

Precious Metals

(GLD) SPDR Gold Shares

(GOLD) Barrick Gold

(SLV) iShares Silver Trust

(WPM) Wheaton Precious Metal

I have been encouraging everyone to buy gold and silver stocks since last year. If you don’t own any of the stocks listed here, start scaling in now. Gold has pulled back, so it is a great time to add weight or scale in. If you own the above, add weight to any or all by scaling. Gold and silver are in a long-term bull trend.

The metals are seen as a safe haven/ insurance against market volatility and geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, falling interest rates will see gold prices rise. Gold is a hedge against inflation.

I introduced the notion of digital gold in the zoom monthly meeting on Sunday afternoon, October 6. Digital gold is like a token – a form of electronic money – that can be exchanged for physical gold. I will do a whole Post about digital gold soon.

Technology

(AMZN) Amazon

In August when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and the market dropped, I suggested adding weight to both Nvidia and Amazon. I suggest scaling in and adding weight here too.

Amazon’s revenue growth grew by 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30-$42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next five years at 4.5x.

Some of the stocks listed above I have already recommended. If you have any of them, you could consider adding weight.

If you don’t own any stocks in a particular sector, I would suggest adding one stock suggested in that sector.

When I say add weight or buy a stock, I mean to scale in. Do not add all your weight at one buy entry. Spread out your entries over a fortnight or a month or so.

Any portfolio should be well diversified. You should have a cash element and some fixed income. You could look at (HYG) and/or (JNK), which are bond ETFs that now offer a good entry point.

Cheers

Jacquie

October 9, 2024

Jacque's Post

(FARMLAND INVESTMENT – A RELATIVELY UNKNOWN OPPORTUNITY)

October 9, 2024

Hello everyone

Spanning many decades in the past, farmland has emerged as a very robust and consistent investment vehicle, outperforming traditional investment options such as the S&P500, real estate, gold, and bonds.

How can that be?

Farmland offers consistent returns

Over the past 30 years or so, farmland has never recorded a negative calendar year.

Let’s delve into some examples here. In the first instance, farmland remained positive during the dot-com bubble, when stocks were down for three consecutive years. Similarly, in 2008, when the S&P500 dropped by 37%, farmland recorded a positive return of 16%. This resilience and consistency make farmland a unique and attractive investment option.

Supply and demand dynamics

The principles of supply and demand go a long way to explain the performance of farmland as an investment. We all know the global population continues to grow on the demand side, leading to an increased need for food. This trend is expected to continue, providing a steady demand for farmland.

On the supply side, as cities expand and populations grow, development often encroaches on farmland, reducing its availability. This phenomenon of urban sprawl has decreased the supply of farmland, further driving up its value.

The combination of increasing demand and decreasing supply creates a healthy investment recipe. It ensures that farmland retains its value and provides consistent returns, making it an attractive investment option.

Farmland - An Underutilized Investment

Despite its impressive performance as an investment, farmland remains relatively unknown in the mainstream financial advisory sector. Many typical advisors have never considered it a viable investment option.

The upfront cost was high, and it was thought that investing required an intimate knowledge of the farming industry. However, that is changing rapidly, with new investment opportunities that greatly reduce these barriers to entry.

Today, all you need to invest in farmland is a bit of extra cash and an investment account. New opportunities are starting to open to the public.

Farmland can be considered as an alternative investment. Farmland produces returns both with rent yields and appreciation in the farmland’s value. So, these investments can work somewhat like dividend stocks or other rental property, with gains from income and capital gains.

Ways to Invest

1/ Owning land directly

If you want to invest in farmland, it’s still possible to own land directly. In this case, you could buy the land outright and rent it to a farmer who would use it for their crops or livestock. So, owning land directly means it would work like an investment property.

The capital needed to buy a farm may be quite significant. For instance, according to the USDA, the average farm size in 2023 was 464 acres. The USDA also reported an average cost of $4,080 per acre in 2023, up from 3,800 the year before. Using these averages, you could expect an average purchase price of $1.89 million for a farm. Naturally, you may be able to get started with less if you can find the right opportunity.

2/ Farmland REITS

Real estate investment trusts (REITS) are not just for office buildings and apartment complexes. REITS can also invest in farmland, and they’re a popular way for investors to enjoy the benefits of real estate investing – that is, enjoying income – without the headaches of management.

Investing in REITS makes diversification easier, and they’re much more liquid, and the minimum investment is often much lower. And REITS enjoy no corporate income tax in exchange for distributing 90% of their taxable income to investors as dividends.

Gladstone Land (LAND) and Farmland Partners (FPI) are two of the most prominent farmland REITS.

3/ Agricultural Stocks

One alternative to investing in farmland directly is investing in agriculture stocks. The idea is simple: instead of buying farmland, you buy shares of stock in companies in the agriculture industry.

These agriculture companies might be involved in things like crop production, agricultural equipment manufacturing, fertilizer production, and distribution. Crop producers, for example, make a return on the investment from producing the land, and they may own the land, too, so they can benefit from the potential rise in land prices.

Widely held agricultural stocks include Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Corteva (CTVA), and Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)

4/ Farmland Mutual funds and ETFs.

Some investors prefer mutual funds or ETFs because it is often easier than buying stocks in individual agricultural companies.

Notably, farmland mutual funds don’t always invest exclusively in agriculture and often invest in adjacent sectors.

Buying individual stocks gives you a greater level of certainty over where your funds are being invested. This is not always true when you invest in mutual funds.

The Fidelity Agricultural Productivity Fund (FARMX) aims to invest 80% of its assets in agricultural productivity companies, and its largest holding is Deere (DE), the well-known name behind much agricultural machinery.

It is important to note that these funds can come with high fees – so you always need to check these before investing in any fund.

This is an item of interest Post to show you alternative investments. Overall, it is my preference to buy individual stocks where I can rather than funds.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

October 7, 2024

Jacque's Post

(THE PROS AND CONS OF PAYMENT APPS)

October 7, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday Oct. 7

8:30 p.m. Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Tuesday Oct 8

6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (September)

8:30 a.m. Import/export goods data (August)

8:30 a.m. Canada Trade Balance

Previous: C$0.7B

Forecast: C$0.2B

Earnings: PepsiCo

Wednesday Oct 9

7 a.m. Mortgage Applications (week ended Oct.4)

10 a.m. Wholesale inventories (August)

2 p.m. FOMC minutes

Thursday Oct 10

8:30 a.m. CPI (September)

Previous: 2.5%

Forecast: 2.3%

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (week ended Oct. 5)

11 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams speaks

Earnings: Delta, Tilray

Friday October 11

8:30 a.m. PPI (September)

8:30 a.m. Canada Unemployment Rate

Previous: 6.6%

Forecast: 6.6%

10 a.m. University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Earnings: BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Chase, Fastenal, Wells Fargo.

This week will be lighter regarding economic data. Taking centre stage will be the US inflation data on Thursday. While inflation concerns have largely subsided, any unexpected increase would impact the dollar and rattle markets. Current market projections favour a 25-basis point cut in November.

Many major banks are expected to adjust interest rates in the coming months, which is likely to impact currency markets.

The nonfarm payroll number surprised many last Friday. September came in at 254k, the highest since May. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%.

Stocks were tentative initially but eventually rallied, bond yields rose as hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed to support weak unemployment quickly faded. Quarter points rate cuts seem to be the favoured move in the months ahead.

PAYMENT APPS

Cashless and contactless interactions saw a dramatic upswing in the last few years, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Digital transactions are now commonplace. There are several mobile payment apps for Android and iOS. With just a quick tap, you can make payments, transfer money, and manage your finances on the go.

These apps are increasingly used as substitutes for a traditional bank or credit union account. For instance, some app users receive their paychecks via Cash App or PayPal, while others leave their funds sitting on the apps for future payments, treating them effectively like bank accounts.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and other watchdogs indicate it’s often unclear if such money is insured against risky investments or fraud. State laws regulating how payment apps protect stored funds vary, creating a confusing patchwork that’s compounded by customer service challenges. And millions of Americans operate in the dark about how payment apps use or invest those funds.

Like all technology, mobile payment apps come with their own set of pros and cons.

Convenience and Accessibility

We all love the convenience mobile apps offer. You don’t need to carry around wallets or credit cards anymore – you just need your mobile phone.

If you are at a store, you can make a quick and secure transaction.

Enhanced Security Features

Many apps use encryption technology to ensure that your data is transmitted securely.

Additionally, most apps require authentication methods such as fingerprint or facial recognition before completing a transaction.

Integration with Loyalty Programs

Mobile apps can be integrated with loyalty programs offered by various merchants. This integration means that every time you make a purchase using the app at a participating merchant, you can earn loyalty points or rewards.

Should you leave money on your payment app?

Consumer groups have flagged it as a risky move. A digital payment app doesn’t carry the same protections for the funds you leave on it – so if its parent company struggles or fails, that money is vulnerable.

To gain insurance, most funds on Venmo, Cash App, and PayPal must meet specific requirements. Consumers can secure coverage on Venmo if they sign up for direct deposit or use the app to cash checks or buy and sell cryptocurrency; PayPal offers insurance to customers who use direct deposit or crypto or who open an app-sponsored debit or credit card. Cash App’s customers must link their account to an app-sponsored prepaid card. And some digital payment apps, including PayPal, have started to offer FDIC-insured savings accounts.

How do app companies use your money?

Payment apps make most of their money by charging fees from consumers who use a credit card or pay for instant money transfers. Apps that offer credit cards also receive swipe fees charged to businesses and interest charged to cardholders.

And they make money by investing the user funds left on apps.

Unlike the regulations on commercial banks, there is no clear regulation about how app companies can invest your money. In some states, app companies have free rein to invest in speculative ventures. Many apps also have unclear user agreements that don’t specify where users’ funds are stored – or what would happen to them if the payment app were to fail.

For example, Google Pay doesn’t specify where consumer funds are stored.

Digital app companies have certainly got room to improve. In the first instance, user agreements for digital payment apps need to do a better job of clarifying where funds are being held and explaining under what conditions they may be insured and what would happen if the parent company failed. In other words, customers need to have transparent information to make educated decisions.

TIPS FOR USING MOBILE PAYMENT APPLICATIONS SECURELY

1/ Use a dedicated credit card (or another type of financial account) for the mobile payment system that is not used for any other purpose.

2/ Monitor your financial statements online or through an app at least once a week. Double-check the amounts before confirming any transactions.

3/ Do not use an ATM or debit card, and NEVER link a checking account directly to a mobile payment system.

4/ Keep your mobile device secured with storage encryption, screen lock with password/fingerprint/face recognition.

5/ Follow password best practices and enable multifactor authentication whenever possible.

CRITICAL SECURITY ISSUES TO CONSIDER BEFORE CHOOSING A MOBILE PAYMENT SYSTEM

1/ Is the mobile payment app always active once the mobile device boots, or is it only active when its app is launched?

2/ Does the mobile payment app time out or become disabled after an idle timeout period, or does it stay operating in the background after use?

3/ Does the mobile app require a login, PIN, or another mechanism to authorize its launch?

4/ Does the mobile app require a confirmation when a transaction is attempted?

5/ Does the mobile payment app display the amount being charged before the transaction can be processed?

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The market is still rallying within a Wave 5 advance with no signs of exhaustion yet. New highs for the year are ahead, with the potential to reach nearly 6000 by year-end.

GOLD

Gold uptrend is still in progress. There is still potential for gold to extend toward the $3000 level over the coming weeks/months.

Next target = $2,720

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has been undergoing a correction.

The sell-off can find support around $57,900/$57,300 and possibly $55,000.

QI CORNER