July 28, 2025

(AN EVENTFUL WEEK COULD SEE MARKET TURBULENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM)

July 28, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, July 28

10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index

Earnings: Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Nucor, Cincinnati Financial

Tuesday, July 29

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (June)

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (May)

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller comp. 20 HPI (May)

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (July)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June)

Earnings: Seagate Technology, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Electronic Arts, Booking Holdings, Visa, Republic Services, PPG Industries, Caesars Entertainment, Sysco, Norfolk Southern, Hubbell, Corning, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Group, Merck & Co., United Parcel Service, Stanley Black & Decker, UnitedHealth Group, PayPal Holdings, Procter & Gamble, Ecolab, Boeing.

Wednesday, July 30

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (June)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

Earnings: MGM Resorts International, Lam Research, Ford Motor, C.H. Robinson, Worldwide, Qualcomm, Align Technology, Western Digital, Tyler Technologies, Public Storage, Prudential Financial, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Invitation Homes, F5, FirstEnergy, Extra Space Storage, DexCom, AvalonBay Communities, Albemarle, Hess, Altria Group, Hershey, Humana, Old Dominion Freight Line, Kraft Heinz, Generac Holdings, GE Healthcare Technologies, Automatic Data Processing, Allstate.

Thursday, July 31

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/19)

8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q2)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/26)

8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (June)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (June)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (June)

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (June)

Earnings: Apple, Clorox, Amazon, KLA, Edison International, Monolithic Power Systems, Ingersoll Rand, First Solar, Coinbase Global, Kellanova, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Howmet Aerospace, Vulcan Materials, Comcast, Bristol Myers Squibb, Quanta Services, KKR & Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, CVS Health, CMS Energy, Cigna Group, PG&E, Air Products & Chemicals, Mastercard, International paper, Biogen, AbbVie.

Friday, August 1

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July)

8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July)

8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July)

8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (July)

8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July)

8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (July)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (July)

Earnings: T.Rowe Price Group, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Moderna, Kimberly-Clark, Chevron.

A BIG WEEK AHEAD

Over 100 companies are due to release earnings in the coming days. Among the Mag 7, we can look forward to reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple.

Corporate earnings have been strong thus far, with more than 82% of the 169 S&P500 companies that have reported beating Wall Street’s expectations, according to FactSet data.

In addition to earnings reports, we also have a key Federal Reserve Meeting, Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline, and the July Jobs report on Friday. Inflation data will also be reported this week.

Although the central bank is expected to keep rates at its current target range of 4.25% -4.5%, investors will be looking for clues about whether a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting.

Tariffs and their effect on inflation will remain in focus on Thursday this week as traders get the June personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation

S&P500 Futures jumped on Monday morning, Australian time, as we learnt of the EU/U.S. trade deal clinched with 15% tariffs. Certainly, a far cry from the 30% that was being tossed around by Trump a while ago. The Euro dropped quite dramatically on the news.

UBS Global Wealth Management head of U.S. equities, David Lefkowitz, is encouraging investors to put in place a short-term hedge for those who have equity exposure, and to add exposure on potential market dips in the weeks ahead.

Trade uncertainty is likely to ignite near-term volatility. But Lefkowitz says not to lose sleep over it, but rather use it to scale. UBS expects US stocks to rise over the next 12 months.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index has reached another high at 6381. There is still no confirmation of even a shorter-term peak

“Pattern-wise”, so the bias is still to the upside. But the risk is very high as the market is extremely overbought after the one-way move from the April low. And we are entering August/September period – a time where the market often pauses/pulls back. Additionally, there are many events on deck this week and into August, which could swing the market strongly. On Monday, Australian time, the S&P500 futures gaped up quite strongly after the open, after the tariff deal (15%) done between the EU and the U.S. was secured over the weekend. So, the index has broken above its previous high. There are many more obstacles for the market to navigate this week. Let’s see if we get that pullback this week.

Resistance = 6385 area

Support = 6295 area

GOLD

Let’s keep our metaphor going here.

The dingo is still roaming the farmland. What we can see forming is a large rising wedge/reversal pattern, with only an eventual downside break of the base – $3295/05 – arguing a larger rolling over.

Resistance = $3435/45 & $3470/80 area

Support = $3327/37 area

BITCOIN

The coin is range-bound presently. We have resistance at the $123/124k area, and, so far, Bitcoin is supported by the $112/$115k area. An upside resolution is still favoured. But a close below the base would abort the move, and argue a more important top (bearish false break)

Resistance = $123/124k area

Support = $$112/$115k area

HISTORY CORNER

On July 28

QI CORNER

Sam Vogel (Family Office & Institutional Investments)

Marjanul Islam

LESSON CORNER

What is the M2 money supply?

M2 = a measure of money supply in the form of physical currency, savings accounts, money market funds & retail mutual funds.

To put it another way, it’s an estimate – calculated by the Fed, (your country’s central bank) – of the amount of money available in the economy. In other words, a measure of liquid assets. It can include cash on hand, money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts and other short-term deposits.

OK, so your next question might be this. Is there an M1 or an M3 money supply?

Yes, there is an M1 and an M3 money supply. In fact, there are five different types of money supply.

So, let’s dive deeper and understand each one here.

M0 money supply = coins, bills, bank reserves

M1 money supply = M0+ (cash), Demand Deposits (checking A/Cs)

M2 money supply = M1+, savings, term deposits, certificates of deposit

M3 money supply = M2+, money market funds, ETF’s

M4 money supply = M3+, all other least liquid assets

Within an educational framework – macroeconomics – these five levels are distilled into just two main levels – M1 and M2.

M1 money supply represents physical currency – cash – and checking accounts. It has the most liquidity.

Liquidity = how easy an asset can be turned into cash.

M2 money supply incorporates M0 & M1 & all other levels.