(CLS), (MSFT), (GOOG), (GOOGL), (NVDA)

I was driving back from Salt Lake City a few weeks ago when I got a call from a former Concierge Service client who runs a drone manufacturing business. 

His story is remarkable - what started as a hobby five years ago now generates $40 million in revenue, with military contracts on the horizon promising even more growth. 

He keeps telling me that our weekly calls during those crucial early days were what kept him from selling to the first European conglomerate that waved a checkbook in his face. 

"You told me to hold out for ten times what they were offering," he reminded me. I don't remember saying that, but who knows? 

After thousands of client calls over the years, they tend to blur together. Still, he swears it was my portfolio review that convinced him to plow every nickel of profit back into engineering when his competitors were cashing out. 

I'm not about to take credit for his success – the guy's a genius in his own right – but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make my day to hear that. Now he's being bombarded with takeover offers from European and Asian firms desperate for new profit streams at any cost.

That conversation got me thinking about AI stocks and where the real opportunities might be hiding.

AI fever is alive and well on Wall Street. But while tech giants like Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) operate under the shadow of China's DeepSeek, the architects of artificial intelligence systems—from semiconductors to servers to sprawling data centers—have emerged as the winners so far in 2025.

Look no further than Nvidia (NVDA), which saw its sales and profits surge as tech companies threw billions at its advanced chips. 

The demand for its Blackwell series alone generated a staggering $11 billion in revenue last quarter. But with its valuation soaring, NVDA is no longer the under-the-radar opportunity it once was.

While Nvidia's dominance is undeniable, the real money in AI isn’t just in chips—it’s in the infrastructure that keeps the entire ecosystem running. 

And that’s where Celestica (CLS) comes in. While most investors were fixated on Nvidia, CLS quietly delivered massive gains, positioning itself as a crucial player in AI’s supply chain.

Celestica makes the electronic guts that keep AI data centers running. It’s not as flashy as ChatGPT or robotics breakthroughs, but the companies that build and maintain AI infrastructure are often where the real money is made. It’s the same reason drone component suppliers have been making a fortune while the spotlight stays on the drones themselves.

And the numbers back it up. Celestica reported $2.55 billion in Q4 revenue, an adjusted EPS of $1.11, and a forecast of $10.7 billion in revenue for 2025—a 22% earnings growth rate in a market where consistent growth is getting harder to find. 

Yet its valuation remains reasonable, with a PEG ratio of 0.8, meaning investors are paying less per unit of growth compared to sector averages.

In 2025, market volatility has been brutal. Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and Donald Trump’s new tariffs on China helped fuel a 5% Nasdaq drop last week, sending investors into panic mode.

But CLS kept climbing. Over the last three months, while the broader market wobbled, Celestica delivered a nearly 29% gain. 

Even better, nine analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward in the last 90 days, with zero downward revisions. That’s the kind of confirmation bias I can get behind.

It’s a strategy I’ve seen pay off before. My former client reinvested in engineering instead of selling out early, betting on long-term value over a quick exit. 

Celestica has been following a similar playbook—focusing on becoming an indispensable part of the AI infrastructure rather than competing with the companies making headlines.

While others chase the next big AI breakthrough, Celestica is already supplying the backbone that powers them all. 

It currently ranks as the top electronic manufacturing services stock and is among the top 10 technology stocks overall—solid proof to its growing influence in the industry.

And with hyperscaler demand accelerating and AI adoption still in its early innings, Celestica is positioned to become even more critical to the AI revolution in the coming years.

So, where is the next 10-bagger in AI? It's probably not limited to the household names that dominate the headlines. 

As I've seen time and again throughout my career, sometimes the most profitable investments are found in the companies building the essential tools for the gold rush, not the miners themselves. 

And just like my drone-building client who turned personalized investment advice into a $40 million business by avoiding the quick exit, the real winners in AI will be those who recognize the opportunities hiding in plain sight.

After all, fortunes aren’t made by chasing shiny objects—they’re made by supplying the circuit boards that keep them running.

(A LARGER LANGUAGE MODEL)

(GOOGL), (META), (MSFT)

While reviewing earnings reports last week at my mountain cabin, I couldn't help but chuckle at the stream of "Google is dead" headlines flooding my inbox. 

Having covered technological disruptions since the early days of the personal computer revolution, I've learned that paradigm shifts rarely happen overnight. The reality is far more nuanced.

The bears would have you believe that Google (GOOGL) is about to become the next Yahoo!, destined for the tech graveyard as AI chatbots eat its lunch. 

After decades of watching tech giants rise and fall, I've developed a nose for distinguishing between genuine disruption and market hysteria. This feels a lot like the latter.

Let me share something that might surprise you: Google's search business is still growing even as ChatGPT and its AI cousins grab headlines. 

We're looking at a $2.25 trillion behemoth with $95.66 billion in cash, trading at a better valuation than its big tech peers. Now THAT's what I call a disconnect between perception and reality.

Here's why the Google-is-dead crowd has it all wrong.

For one, Google isn't sitting on its hands. I've analyzed enough tech transitions to know the difference between a company adapting and one in denial. 

After a brief deer-in-headlights moment when ChatGPT launched, they've gone full throttle into AI. The difference? Google can actually afford the AI arms race.

While OpenAI burns through cash faster than a Silicon Valley startup during the dot-com boom, Google generates enough free cash flow from its search business to fund its AI future. 

It's like having a money printer to fund your R&D - something I wish every promising tech company had back when I was analyzing startups in the '80s.

But here's the kicker that most people miss: Google has THREE aces up its sleeve that nobody else can match.

First, they have an ecosystem that would make any tech company envious. 

Google is on virtually every smartphone worldwide. They've got 8.5 billion daily searches, millions of YouTube uploads, and more data points than there are stars in the Milky Way.

Second, they have data quality that puts everyone else to shame. 

While OpenAI is scrambling to buy training data (word is they're running out of public data to train on), Google's got a fresh firehose of high-quality, real-world information flowing in daily.

Third, they have cash flow that won't quit. 

With a $95.66 billion war chest and money-printing core business, Google can outspend and outlast virtually any competitor.

Speaking of money, let's talk valuation. 

Google's enterprise value sits at $2.18T, but here's what makes it interesting - it's actually cheaper than Microsoft on an EV/EBITDA basis. 

The company's been buying back shares like they're going out of style, reducing the share count by 10% in just five years. That's a sneaky 2% annual return right there, before we even talk about price appreciation.

Sure, there are risks. New players like Perplexity are popping up faster than NFT projects in a bull market. 

But having witnessed multiple tech cycles, I can tell you that unseating an incumbent with Google's advantages is about as easy as climbing Mount Everest in flip-flops.

Don't get me wrong - Google needs to execute. 

Their CAPEX spending shows they're serious, but it's still below Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) as a percentage of revenue. That might need to change. 

But with search revenues still growing and AI integration accelerating, Google looks more like a phoenix than a dinosaur.

The bottom line? Google is a buy on dips. The death of search has been greatly exaggerated, and the company's positioning in AI is far stronger than the market realizes.

Where will Google be in five years? Nobody knows for sure, but I've got a strong hunch those AI-powered searches will be making us all look smarter while making Google shareholders richer.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go check if my AI assistant can help analyze these quarterly earnings faster than I can. Some disruptions are worth embracing.

(AMD), (INTC), (NVDA)

You know you're getting old when you can remember Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) back when they were the scrappy underdog making Intel-compatible chips in Austin, Texas. 

Back in my early trading days in the '80s, I watched AMD engineers reverse-engineer Intel's (INTC) latest processors with the dedication of medieval monks copying manuscripts.

Fast forward to today, and AMD's stock just got the kind of beating usually reserved for tech companies that forget to mention "AI" in their earnings calls. 

We're talking about a drop from $227 to around $107 - a painful 53% decline that's enough to make even the most hardened tech trader wince.

The million-dollar question floating around my Lake Tahoe office this week: “Has the market lost its mind, or is this the kind of opportunity that makes careers?”

Let me break this down for you, and trust me, it gets interesting.

First, let's address the elephant in the server room - why was AMD trading at $227 in the first place? Simple: AI fever. 

The same fever that had people buying pet rocks in the '70s and crypto tokens named after dogs in 2021. Expectations got so far ahead of reality that they were practically in a different zip code.

But here's where it gets juicy - AMD's data center revenue just surged 69% year-over-year to $3.9 billion in Q4. That's not a typo, and it's definitely not the kind of number you see from a company that's supposedly lost its mojo. 

The division now accounts for 50% of 2024 sales, up from about as much as a rounding error a few years ago.

Speaking of numbers that make you do a double-take, AMD's forward P/E ratio has crashed from the nosebleed level of 40-50 last year to below 18 now. 

The last time I saw a multiple compression this dramatic, I was watching the air leave my daughter’s birthday bouncy castle.

Still, here's something the doom-and-gloom crowd isn't telling you: AMD's pulling forward production of their MI350 series to mid-2025 due to strong customer demand. 

When a company accelerates production in this environment, it's like seeing a restaurant with a line around the block - something good is cooking inside.

Sure, AMD's got challenges. Their AI GPU sales expectations for 2025 got trimmed back faster than my hedge during spring cleaning. The software side needs work - they're playing catch-up to NVIDIA (NVDA) in the AI space like I used to chase after my kids at Disneyland. 

But here's the kicker: AMD's total data center sales could still hit $15-16 billion this year.

The client segment isn't exactly sitting on its hands either, posting a 52% year-over-year growth rate. We're looking at potential sales of $32-33 billion this year, possibly ramping up to $40-42 billion in 2026. 

Now, am I saying AMD is risk-free? About as much as my morning coffee is calorie-free. 

Obviously, they're facing serious competition from NVIDIA in AI and need to keep Intel at bay in traditional computing. 

But at these prices? It's like finding a Ferrari with a Honda Civic price tag just because it needs new tires.

Looking ahead to 2030, I can see AMD's stock hitting $500 or higher. That's not just optimism talking - that's looking at the numbers and seeing a company trading at a modest 25-27 forward P/E multiple with substantial growth ahead.

For those tracking this stock, AMD reported in-line EPS of $1.09 on $7.7 billion in sales - a 24% year-over-year increase that beat expectations by $170 million. 

Q1 guidance came in at $7.1 billion, above the Street's $6.99 billion estimate. Those aren't the numbers of a company in trouble; they're the numbers of a company in transition.

Is AMD oversold? The technicals certainly suggest so. The stock is about 33% below its 200-day moving average, which in technical analysis terms is like finding yourself in Death Valley when you meant to drive to San Francisco. 

The RSI has stopped making new lows relative to the stock price - often a sign that the smart money is quietly accumulating positions.

The bottom line? AMD at $107 looks about as overvalued as a snow shovel in July. Sure, there might be more volatility ahead - this is tech, after all, not a savings bond. 

But for those willing to look past the next quarter or two, AMD could be setting up for one of those moves that people talk about at investment conferences for years to come.

As for me, I'm heading back to Lake Tahoe this weekend. There's something about the clear mountain air that helps put market volatility in perspective. 

That, and I hear there's a tech conference in Reno where a certain CPU maker might be making some interesting announcements.

Remember, in Silicon Valley, today's underdog is tomorrow's top dog. Just ask the folks who sold their AMD shares in 2015 for $2.

Be on the lookout for developments - this semiconductor story has more chapters ahead.