?US stock performance will be good in 2016, but is set to be outperformed by Japan, Europe, and emerging markets,? said a top manager at bond giant PIMCO.
Global Market Comments
May 16, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DEATH OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR),
(HOW TO USE YOUR CELL PHONE ABROAD)
I constantly receive emails from readers around the world inquiring how I accomplish this or that in my far-reaching travels around the globe.
After all, I have visited 125 countries over the past 50 years. What?s more, I have run the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Empire for the last eight years on the fly from a laptop and a cell phone.
Given that Europe is now as cheap as last year, and 20% less expensive than four years ago, an increasing number of you are going to cross the pond for your summer vacation.
That certainly was the case this year, when I saw a substantially larger number of American families traveling with children.
For the first time in decades, I am finding gaggles of American students in train stations backpacking their way around the continent with a Eurail Pass, much like I did in the 1960?s.
With the right information, your cell phone can make your trip vastly more enjoyable, while preventing it from becoming wildly expensive. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we got along without them. So here goes:
1) Hardware ? US issued phones only work abroad if you have an international SIM card, as do most iPhones. Before you leave, call your cell phone provider and ask if you have an international SIM card in your phone.
Each company has exactly one person who knows what this is. If you don?t have one, get one. The person at Verizon is named Maria.
Upon arriving abroad, the truly adventurous remove their American SIM cards and install a local one, signing up for a local plan. This can cut your international bill to as little as $10 a month.
You just reinstall your US SIM card when you return home. However, as SIM cards are too small for me to see, I have yet to attempt this bit of technological acrobatics.
If you keep your US SIM card, to make a call when abroad you have to assume you are still in the United States, since you have a US number.
To call another country in Europe just hold down the ?0? in you phone number pad until a + sign appears. Then dial 011 for the international exchange, and the numbers for the local country and city codes.
To call the US from abroad, hold the ?0? until a + sign appears, then dial 1, then the area code and number.
2) Roaming - International roaming can cost a fortune. Before I figured out the game, I was spending $500 a week downloading email, newspapers, and research reports. TED talks are the worst, costing at least $25 each to watch over foreign air.
So it is crucial to turn off the roaming feature on your phone. On an iPhone you do this by going into settings, then cellular data, and then turning the cellular data function off. Do this, and you will still be able to receive voice calls, such as from a lost traveling companion in distress.
Here is the key rule: Only access the Internet through the free WIFI at your hotel. Download all your big files, news, and email here. This saves you a ton of money.
You will need to turn on your cellular roaming to get your apps to work. But if you have already downloaded the big files, the additional cost to check your stock prices, weather forecast, or the way to a sought after restaurant will be minimal.
Another tactic is to de spam your email accounts. Find all of those useless, unsolicited marketing emails promising get rich quick schemes, dating opportunities, or male enhancements. Then mark them as spam (unless they are from me). When you do use your cellular roaming, they won?t eat up your entire data budget.
Warning: Start doing this every day a month before you leave. That?s how much spam is out there. You can always unmark email as spam from senders you like, such as the local public library, when you return home.
American companies finally now offer international plans. This year Verizon is offering 250 MB of data, 250 emails and text messages, and 250 minutes of talk time for $80 a month. This is nowhere near enough, but it is a start.
Every time you cross a border, the local cell phone company will text you with usage and overage rates, which is usually $25 per 100 MB of data, or 10 cents a minute for voice or messaging.
You can find all the Americans on a train when their phones all ping at once, often when you cross a bridge or come out of or tunnel, or land at an airport.
3) Apps
Google Maps can provide perfect, detailed directions on how to reach the most remote destinations, whether you are in the Istanbul Bazaar, the Marrakesh Medina, or the back allies of Rome.
You can choose instructions whether you are on foot or driving. As soon as you arrive at your hotel, type in the address, so you can always find home. The really great thing about Google Maps is that, unlike paper maps, it tells you where you are.
Just be careful not to bump into another traveler who is similarly staring at his cell phone to find his way (I walked straight into a concrete lamppost once in Tokyo and almost knocked myself out).
Be sure to download a free flashlight app before you leave home. These are great for navigating your way down dark streets, reading a menu in an ill lit restaurant, or finding the keyhole in your door.
The weather app is indispensable. It will allow you to fine tune your travel plans up to a week in advance.
Being an ex Boy Scout, I find a compass app particularly useful. Knowing where magnetic north is comes in handy when using those free tourist maps.
Stock market apps will bring you the assurance that the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alerts are working well and paying for the entire trip. Remember that the New York Stock Exchange opens at 3:30 PM on the European continent because of the time change.
Travel in Europe is made much easier when you speak seven languages, although it?s hard to find a living Roman centurion to practice your Latin with.
Limited to the King?s English? No problem! Get free language apps for the countries of your destination. Sometimes, the translation of a single word can mean the difference between life and death.
It?s better to pay a couple of bucks and get the expanded vocabulary apps so you never come up short. That's how I found out that ?sardi? is a type of Italian pasta unique to Northern Italy, and not a sardine.
You may have your own special apps you use. I like to visit my Tesla occasionally, verifying that it is still in my garage and fully charged. I also like to check the daily output of my solar panels to prove that my house is still standing.
Coming from California, I can never be sure. Google Earth is useless here because the pictures can be up to six months old. They are obviously lacking on satellite time.
4) Security
Identity theft is exploding in Europe, thanks to the close proximity of a hackers paradise in unpoliced Eastern Europe. Never access your financial accounts through a free public network that is not password protected. It?s like leaving your wallet in the middle of Saint Mark?s Square in Venice and expecting to find it there an hour later.
Don?t even attempt an innocent checking of balances. Create intricate passwords. And I don?t mean a password like 123456789. You can count on your accounts getting cleaned out. There is no greater bummer than being told by a hotel clerk that you can?t check out because all of your credit cards have been cancelled.
If you do need to check your balance on the run, do it only through your cell phone, and only over a cell net
work (no WIFI), where an extra level of security is provided. The same is true with inter account transfers. This can be expensive, but it is worth it.
Please note that in China, the security situation is becoming so severe that many multinationals will not permit employees to bring their laptops. They have adopted cell phone only policies in the Middle Kingdom.
Too many western visitors were getting their entire hard drives copied by these crooks searching for western intellectual property, in addition to the easy pickings among bank accounts.
5) Entertainment
OK, so watching Wheel or Fortune in German, French, or Italian is not your cup of tea. Before you leave home and still have reasonable broadband, download a batch of old movies from iTunes, Netflix, or Amazon to your laptop.
That way, you have something to do in the middle of the night waiting for your jet lag to adjust. Bring a six-foot HDMI cable and you can change the input channel on your hotel TV, plug in, and watch your flick there.
6) Bandwidth
European bandwidth can vary all over the map, from lightening fast (the Ritz Carlton in Barcelona) to painfully slow (Agadir, Morocco). Europeans just don?t seem to grasp how fast apps are growing, and bandwidth demand is accelerating.
More than a few times, I have had to crawl under front desks and reboot routers to get systems working again.
Suffice it to say, the more you pay, the faster your WIFI. If you check into your hotel and see half the residents sitting in the lobby checking their email, it is not a good sign.
WIFI was invented in the US, where two by four wooden studs and one inch sheetrock used in construction is common.
Two-foot thick stonewalls typical in historic European city centers (where you will want to stay) are terrible for WIFI range, and it is not unusual to have no access from your room.
If Apple or Microsoft want to upgrade your operating system on the road, wait until you get home. Otherwise, you might crash your system and not be able to use your device until you return home.
7) Tickets
It is now possible to do a search of your next foreign city for coming events while you are on a train, buy tickets online, and show the ticket on your phone to gain admission.
I have also settled a couple of checkout disputes proving that I prepaid hotel stays by displaying proof of payment from my PayPal or bank account.
Incredible, but true.
I will be following this piece up with another on general travel tips in a couple of weeks entitled Travel Tips From a Pro, which I am now working on.
In the meantime, enjoy your trip.
Global Market Comments
May 13, 2016
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL 200% ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH),
(SPY), (GLD), (USO), (FXE), (EUO), (FXY), (YCS),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
United States Oil (USO)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Being the armchair historian that I am, I sense that I have just been through D-Day, the Battle of the Bulge, and Dien Bien Phu, ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
That is what it's felt like trading these violent markets this year. After snoring for months, volatility came back with a vengeance.
They?re now running the movie on fast forward.
So it has been a long four months since the performance of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has hit a new all time high.
Yet, despite some non-fatal battle injuries and plenty of scars, and now wiser from the trying experience, here we are.
They say in the Marine Corps. that whatever doesn?t kill you makes you stronger.
Semper Fi.
So true, so true.
I have been using every short-term rally for the past six weeks to strap on short positions in the S&P 500 (SPY) through risk limiting vertical bear put option spreads.
Those who couldn?t trade options bought the ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) instead.
For the first few times I had to stop out with frustrating, but small losses.
Then, when I saw the rally in stocks rolling over I bet the ranch.
Guess what? I won another ranch!
That?s not all I have been doing.
I have also been using every dip in gold (GLD) to get long. So far in 2016 my track record here has been perfect, with four consecutive winners.
I have also been hammering both the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) and the Euro (FXE), (EUO) on the short side.
And for good measure I strapped on an opportunistic short position in oil (USO), which delivered an instant two-day 9.63% gain.
If you have been reading my daily research you know exactly why we have been executing these specific trades, with the fundamental and technical arguments displayed in all their glory.
No chance for indecision or waffling here!
So far in 2016 we have posted A BLISTERING 9.35% GAIN, putting us once more in the top 1% of all hedge fund performance.
And this is in a year when many of the biggest hedge funds have been wiped out, or are posting severe double-digit, life threatening losses, with lame excuses attached.
May so far has been as hot at the Sahara Desert that I recently escaped, UP AN EYE POPPING 8.14%, making it the best month since September, 2015, when we clocked a life changing +11.99% .
This brings my performance since the inception of the Trade Alert Service five and a half years ago to 201.03%. That annualizes out to 37.11% per year, not bad in this upside down, negative interest rate (NIRP) world.
It seems like only a Madman can prosper in these hopeless trading conditions.
The last nine consecutive Trade Alerts I issued have been profitable, most instantly.
Under promise and over deliver has always been a winning business strategy for me. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
This is against a backdrop of major market indexes that are all unchanged so far this year, despite sudden bursts of volatility and long stretches of boredom.
The key to winning this year has been to put the pedal to the medal during those brief, but hair raising rallies, and then take quick profits.
They don?t call me ?Mad? for nothing.
When the market is dead, you sit on your hands.
After all, you are trying to pay for your own yacht, not your broker?s.
When the market pays you to stay away, you stay away in droves.
Those who have made the effort to wake up early every morning and read my witty and incisive prose have an impressive row of notches on their bedpost to show for their effort.
My groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.
Some 50% of my clients are over 50 and managing their own retirement funds fleeing the shoddy, but expensive services provided by Wall Street. The balance are institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional financial advisors.
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to level the playing field for the average Joe or Josephine. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say we?re accomplishing our goal.
Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on my trading recommendations. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page by clicking here.
Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.
To subscribe, please go to our website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, click on the" STORE" Tab, click on "Subscription Types", scroll to the bottom of the ?Global Trading Dispatch? column, and click on the ?Subscribe Now? button.
And now for the rest of the year.
I can?t wait!
Daily Audited Trade Alert 201.03% Performance Since Inception
Off to Find the Next Great Trade
Global Market Comments
May 12, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SECRET FED PLAN TO BUY GOLD),
(GLD), (GDX), (PALL), (PPLT),
(WHO SAYS THERE AREN?T ANY JOBS?),
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)
ETFS Physical Platinum (PPLT)
When I spoke to a senior official at the Federal Reserve the other day, I couldn?t believe what I was hearing.
If the American economy moves into the next recession with interest rates already near zero, the markets will take the interest rates for all interest bearing securities well into negative numbers.
At that point, our central bank?s primary tool for stimulating US businesses will become utterly useless, ineffective, and impotent.
What else is in the tool bag?
How about large-scale purchases of Gold (GLD)?
You are probably as shocked as I am with this possibility. But there is a rock solid logic to the plan. As solid as the vault at Fort Knox.
The idea is to create asset price inflation that will spread to the rest of the economy. It already did this with great success from 2009-2014 with quantitative easing, whereby almost every class of debt securities were hoovered up by the government.
?QE on steroids?, to be implemented only after overnight rates go negative, would involve large scale purchases of not only gold, but stocks, government bonds, and exchange traded funds as well.
If you think I?ve been smoking California?s largest cash export (it?s not the sunshine), you would be in error. I should point out that the Japanese government is already pursuing QE to this extent, at least in terms of equity type investments.
And, as the history buff that I am, I can tell you that it has been done in the US as well, with tremendous results.
If you thought that president Obama had it rough when he came into office in 2009, it was nothing compared to what Franklin Delano Roosevelt inherited.
The country was in its fourth year of the Great Depression. US GDP had cratered by 43%, consumer prices crashed by 24%, the unemployment rate was 25%, and stock prices vaporized by 90%. Mass starvation loomed.
Drastic measures were called for.
FDR issued Executive Order 6102 banning private ownership of gold, ordering the public to sell their holding to the US Treasury at a lowly $20.67 an ounce.
He then urged Congress to pass the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which instantly revalued the government?s holdings at $35.00, an increase of 69.32%. These and other measures caused the value of America?s gold holdings to leap from $4 to $12 billion.
Since the US was still on the gold standard back then, this triggered an instant dollar devaluation of more than 50%. The high gold price sucked in massive amounts of the yellow metal from abroad creating, you guessed it, inflation.
The government then borrowed massively against this artificially created wealth to fund the landscape altering infrastructure projects of the New Deal.
It worked.
During the following three years, the GDP skyrocketed by 48%, inflation eked out a 2% gain, the unemployment rate dropped to 18%, and stocks jumped by 80%. Happy days were here again.
Monetary conditions are remarkably similar today to the those that prevailed during the last government gold buying binge.
There has been a de facto currency war underway since 2009. The Fed started it when it launched QE, and Japan, Europe, and China have followed. Blue-collar unemployment and underpayment is at a decades high. The need for a national infrastructure program is overwhelming.
However, in the 21st century version of such a gold policy, it is highly unlikely that we would see another gold ownership ban.
Instead, the Fed?s would most likely move into the physical gold market, sitting on the bid for years, much like it recently did in the Treasury bond market for five years. Gold prices would increase by a multiple of current levels.
It would then borrow against its new gold holdings, plus the 4,176 metric tonnes worth $200 billion at today?s market prices already sitting in Fort Knox, to fund a multi trillion dollar infrastructure-spending program.
Heaven knows we need it. Millions of blue-collar jobs would be created and inflation would come back from the dead.
Yes, this all sounds like a fantasy. But negative interest rates were considered an impossibility only two years ago.
The Fed?s move on gold would be only one aspect of a multi faceted package of desperate last ditch measures to resuscitate the economy which I outlined in a previous research piece (click here for ?What Happens When QE Fails? ).
That?s assuming the gold is still there. The door to the vault at Fort Knox has not been opened since September 23, 1974. Persistent urban legends and internet rumors claim that the vault is actually empty, or filled with fake steel bars painted gold.
We?ll never know for sure. Visitors are not allowed.
The Next Economic Stimulus Program?

While winging my way across the South Pacific a few months ago, I spotted an unusual job offer:
WANTED: Social worker, tax free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient.
With the unemployment rate at 5.3%, and running as high as 45% for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were even advertising for such a job. Usually such plum positions get farmed out to a close relative of the hiring officials involved.
Intrigued, I read on.
To apply you first had to fly to Auckland, New Zealand, and then catch a flight to Tahiti. After that you must endure another long flight to the remote Gambler Island, and then charter a boat for a 36-hour voyage.
Once there, you had to row ashore to a hidden cove on the island, as there was no dock, or even a beach.
It turns out that the job of a lifetime is on remote Pitcairn Island, some 2,700 miles ENE of New Zealand, home to the modern decedents of the mutineers of the HMS Bounty.
History buffs will recall that in 1790, Fletcher Christian led a rebellion against the tyrannical Captain William Bligh, casting him adrift in a lifeboat.
He then kidnapped several Tahitian women and disappeared off the face of the earth. When he stumbled across Pitcairn, which was absent from contemporary charts, he burned the ship to avoid detection.
An off course British ship didn?t find the island until some 40 years later, only to find that Christian had been killed for his involvement in a love triangle decades earlier.
The job is not without its challenges. There is one doctor, and electric power is switched on only 10 hours a day. Supply ships visit every three months. The local language is a blend of 18th century English and Tahitian called Pitkern, for which there is no dictionary.
Previous workers have a history of going native. Oh, and 10% of the island?s 54 residents are registered sex offenders, due to its long history of incest.
The next time someone you know complains about being unable to find a job, just tell them they are not looking hard enough, and to brush up on their Pitkern.
For more on the jobs situation, please visit my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com.
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.