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DougD

March 15, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 15, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARCH 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(APRIL 15 HOUSTON STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(THE BULL MARKET IN GOLD IS ONLY JUST STARTING),
(GLD), (ABX), (NEM)


SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-15 01:09:182016-03-15 01:09:18March 15, 2016
DougD

The Bull Market in Gold is Only Just Starting

Diary, Newsletter
bullish on gold

As many of you know, my oldest son, John, is an English teacher at a government university in western China. He is fluent in Mandarin, Cantonese, Japanese, Russian, Korean, and of course, English.

I was Skyping with him the other day, and he mentioned something that piqued my interest. There were lines forming outside the country?s newly opened gold coin stores. Gold ownership in the Middle Kingdom carried a death penalty until very recently.

Furthermore, he learned that jewelry stores were packed while shopping for a birthday present for his new girlfriend, with newly enriched consumers loading up on not only gold, but silver and platinum as well.

Many had their heads handed to them last year in the stock market crash. Stocks are now considered too dangerous a place in which to invest ones? savings, so everyone is now pouring money into precious metals.

I thought ?Well, that explains a hell of a lot.?

Then I saw a news item flash across my screen that further focused my interest.

China?s Anbang insurance group was making a $12.2 billion takeover bid for the Starwood Hotel Group (HOT). This was a mere 24 hours after its $2 billion bid for my late wife?s former employer, New York?s Waldorf Astoria Hotel.

This is not the first time that Chinese capital has flooded into the US. Recent years have seen a $5.4 billion purchase of the GE Appliance Division, $3.5 billion for Legendary Entertainment, and $4.7 billion for Smithfield Foods.

So much money has poured into Napa Valley at wildly extravagant prices that a lot of very mediocre winemakers have suddenly found themselves billionaires. Locally owned vineyards have taken to posting ?American Owned? signs out front. You can see them when you go winetasting.

The cause for all of the above is the same.

Capital is pouring out of China at an unprecedented rate. It is departing the Middle Kingdom to flee a weakening economy, collapsing stocks, a weakening Yuan, a capricious government, political oppression, censorship, a crackdown on corruption, and the lack of local investment opportunities.

Fear of a revolution that strings up all the billionaires is another motivating factor. Today, China boasts more newly minted billionaires than any other country on earth.

It is fleeing towards the United States and towards the hard metal equivalent, gold. As much as this year?s political candidates decry the state of our economy, everyone else in the rest of the world wants to send their money here as fast as they can and bring themselves with it.

What is most important is for you and me is that this is a major macro trend that has only just begun.

Gold is a particular target of the Chinese because of the country?s long-term cultural affinity with precious metals. Look at any historical contracts between China and the west and quantitates of exchange are identified in taels of gold and silver.

This ended with the communist government, which forced citizens to turn over all gold and silver holdings to the government.

What we are seeing now is the unleashing of 67 years of repressed gold consumption by a newly rising middle class. It is highly reminiscent of the 39-year flood of gold buying let loose by President Richard Nixon's removal of the US from the gold standard in 1972.

As you may recall, that stampede lasted for eight years and took gold up from $34 to $900 an ounce. I was found standing in line in Johannesburg unloading my stash of krugerrands right at the market top.

China is already the world?s largest gold producer, the actual amount of production is anyone?s guess. It is also the second largest importer, after India, unable to sate domestic demand.

The yellow metal is a natural target for Chinese flight capital. We are still close to the bottom of a five-year bear market in gold created by an unremitting seven-year bull market in global stocks.

Only three months ago, the Federal Reserve was threatening eight consecutive quarters of 25-point interest rate rises, according to former governor Richard Fisher.

When the stock market threatened to commit suicide as a result, that was taken off the table. The latest rally will allow the Fed to give us one, or possibly two more quarter point rate rises this year, but no more.

In the meantime, the rest of the developed world, like Europe and Japan, has moved to negative interest rates, in some cases quite impressively so.

This is fantastic news for gold, and has given us some meteoric moves in both the barbarous relic and the miners.

There is more good news to come. Slowing global growth, the prospect of more sudden Yuan devaluations, and rising energy debt defaults in the US have all made gold sparkle more brightly than ever.

Not only that, we are starting to see the seeds of nascent inflation, long a major gold driver. Hiring has been on a tear in the US, with the headline unemployment rate plunging to 4.9%, a decade low.

Ratchet it down to 4.5%, and new wage demands will become irresistible. This has long been considered by economists to be the ?full employment rate?, where everyone in the country either has a job, or is in between jobs, except for my cousin Milton, who hasn?t had a job in his life.

We all have cousin Miltons.

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Trade Alert service have already coined it twice this year with my bullish calls on gold. More are to come.

All that is needed is a good entry point, always the million dollar question. Wait for the current rally in stocks to eke out a few more points, which will bring further gold weakness.

Then jump into (GLD) calls, call spreads, outright ETF shares, and gold miners like Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) with both boots.

It?s a trend even my cousin Milton can spot.

GLD
ABX
NEM
John Thomas -Gold

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/John-Thomas-Gold-e1455831491219.jpg 297 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-15 01:06:232016-03-15 01:06:23The Bull Market in Gold is Only Just Starting
DougD

March 14, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 14, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 25 CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(CATCHING UP WITH WARREN BUFFET),
(BRKA), (AXP), (CCE), (IBM), (WFC), (BAC),
(THE GREAT SOCIAL SECURITY MARRIAGE BENEFIT YOU?VE NEVER HEARD OF)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
American Express Company (AXP)
Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (CCE)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-14 01:09:152016-03-14 01:09:15March 14, 2016
DougD

Catching Up With Warren Buffet

Diary, Newsletter

One of my favorite research pieces to read every year is Warren Buffet?s annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A),his gigantic holding company.

Not only does it paint an excellent broad-brush picture of the US economy, it is also witty, funny, and downright educational, even for old farts such as myself.

Warren and his long time partner Charlie Munger own such a big chunk of the US economy, about 3%, employing a staggering 361,270 individuals world wide, that he has a truly unique 50,000-foot view of what is happening.

For example, his BNSF railroad took it on the nose with the collapse of the US coal industry, but made it back with the rise of rail oil shipments.

Driverless cars promise to have a huge and negative impact on the insurance industry and car dealerships. Traditional print publications continued to be devoured by the Internet. Warren sees it all before anyone else.

Warning: Buffet doesn?t do technology, a sector that he has never understood, and which largely doesn?t pay dividends. Warren is definitely an old economy guy.

Buffet has also been reading my Diary of A Mad Hedge Fund Trader since its inception eight years ago.

He likes to tell his investors that he got the idea to take a 5% stake in Bank of America (BAC) while reading research in the? bathtub. What he DOESN?T tell them is that he was reading MY research in his bathtub.

My followers earned a 400% profit over a single weekend on (BAC) call options on that trade.

Berkshire Hathaway shares suffered an uncommonly difficult year in 2015, shedding some 1.2%, even though the book value per share rose by 6.4%. Over the past 51 years, the shares have rocketed from $19 to $155,501, a 19.2% return compounded annually.

It has been a performance for the ages.

Dad! Where were you?

Buffet starts out by listing his highlights for the year.

He invested $5.8 billion to improve the service of his BNSF railroad, which carries 17% of America?s rail cargo. It was one of the largest single capital investments in US history, and will bring substantially greater profits in years to come.

BNSF, along with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (power utilities), Marmon (manufacturing), Lubrizol (chemicals), and IMC (tools) were his five most profitable investments, seeing profits rise by $650 million to $13.1 billion.

In 2016, they will be joined by a sixth powerhouse, Precision Castparts (aircraft parts), which he picked up recently for a cool $32 billion.

Berkshire?s four largest holdings are in American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (CCE), IBM (IBM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). In addition, he owns call options which can be exercised into a major position of Bank of America (BAC).

Buffet?s approach here is to take minority stakes in great business with steady earnings streams, rather than 100% ownership in so-so business. He then leaves them alone and lets them work their magic. Cash flow is king.

All of these companies consistently buy back their own shares, increasing the portion of profits paid to Berkshire.

Long time followers of Buffet are well aware of his love affair with the insurance industry. The ?float? or the premiums received and held in reserve against future claims, amounts to $87.7 billion and finance the rest of his operations.

GEICO, which Warren has been in and out of several times over the decades, has a gecko that appears to be everywhere.

Despite the rise of global warming, claims from natural disasters are actually falling, which is great for profits.

In the rest of his letter, Buffet delves into the esoterica of industries he owns as diverse as manufactured homes, rail car leasing, furniture, and running shoes.

All in all, it is a tour-de-force of US industry. I highly recommend it.

In fact, it you don?t mind the volatility you might pick up a share of (BRKA), that is, if you can afford today?s $211,115 price tag.

To read that last 51 years of Buffet?s letters, please click here at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.

BRK-A
BUFFET

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/BUFFET-e1457738281496.jpg 188 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-14 01:07:242016-03-14 01:07:24Catching Up With Warren Buffet
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Great Social Security Marriage Benefit You?ve Never Heard Of

Diary, Newsletter

The telltale signs were suddenly everywhere.

The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) membership cards appeared, unsolicited, in the mail.? People have started giving up their seat to me whenever I ride BART, especially when I need a haircut.

And recently, I have found those never ending TV ads about drugs dealing with arthritis, Alzheimers and erectile dysfunction utterly fascinating.

There is no denying the calendar. Soon, I will be reaching the US retirement age of 65.

For much of my life, retirement was the furthest thing from my mind, given the way I lived it. In fact, many of my friends and family doubted that I would ever make it past 30, when I published my first book.

My life passed before my eyes during multiple mountain climbing accidents in the High Sierras, the Alps, and the Himalayas. Damn those used ropes!

The Vietnamese had their shot when I caught a landmine in Cambodia. Thanks to them, I still set off metal detectors (especially the one at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland).

The assorted tropical diseases I did catch there probably will take decades off my life. Doctors still find my X-rays puzzling.

I certainly thought I had bought the farm while crashing a variety of planes in Paris, Austria and Sicily.

Saddam Hussein had his go when his troops riddled my plane with bullet holes over Kuwait in 1991. It?s a good thing that I crash aircraft better than anyone I know. That?s important, because they don?t let you practice crashing during flight school.

But somehow the Purple Heart I earned doesn?t seem worth it when my heavy backpack reminds me that I?m missing a lower disc. Thank goodness for hot baths and Advil!

Then there was that time last winter at 12,000 feet in the High Sierras when I got caught in the dark, a ferocious blizzard with 80 mile per hour gusts and 10 degree temperatures.

My GPS froze, so I had to navigate my way back down the mountain with infrequent tree blazes and an old fashioned WWII army compass.

I over estimated the effectiveness of my new snow shoes and underestimated my ability to wade through four feet of fresh powder. In the end I was so exhausted that had to fall down the last slope to get to my car.

Then I discovered that my keys were also frozen and I couldn?t get in the car. After sitting on them for 15 minutes, the parking lights suddenly blinked and I barely made it out alive.

But I digress.

Given the approach of The Big Number, I thought it was time to call my accountant.

I love my accountant. For most of my working life he made sure I never paid a tax rate over 14.9%, taking advantage of the ?carried interest? treatment afforded fortunate and well-connected hedge fund managers.

It was only when I got into the newsletter business eight years ago that I had to pay the full ticket 39.5% rate the rest of the masses get stuck with. However, he keeps magically coming up with tax goodies for me.

I got $10,000 worth of tax gifts when I bought my all-electric Tesla Model S-1.

And this year?s tax return promises to deliver a double windfall from my new solar roof panel system. That includes a 30% alternative energy investment tax credit and full deductibility of the interest on the loan used to pay for it (which will be the subject of a future research piece).

And despite many government attempts to do so, he has successful kept me out of jail. Besides, locking me up in a Federal facility would be unkind to the other inmates, not to mention the poor guards.

My accountant has even promised to snow shoe with me in the High Sierras this winter. I'm still waiting.

But now I?m rambling.

So I asked my accountant how best to game the Social Security System once I am eligible. I have done much for the United States government, it would be nice if I got a little something back.

He asked me if I was married. I answered that I wasn?t, but that I could be. What?s it worth to me?

It was then that he told me about the Great Social Security Marriage Loophole.

It is this simple.

I actually qualified for retirement when I was 62. But if I had done so, I would have received discounted benefits. I will qualify for full retirement benefits at 66 1/2.

Since I have paid in my maximum Social Security taxes for my entire life, I will be eligible to receive $24,000 a year, or $2,000 a month. However, if I delay my retirement until 70 1/2, my benefits will increase by 32% to $31,680 a year.

Here comes the good part.

I can retire now, and then immediately ?file and suspend? my benefits. This is a simple one page form anyone can complete on the IRS.gov website.

That will allow me to suspend receiving my benefits, enabling them to continue to increase to the $31,680 maximum over the next five years.

Since I don?t need the money anyway, and $2,000 a month barely buys you a cup of coffee at Starbucks in the San Francisco Bay area, it was a no-brainer.

In the meantime, my ?wife? can apply for her own benefits and receive 50% of the value my benefits immediately, while my own suspended benefits continue to grow.

Not many people know about this benefit. In fact, The Great Social Security Marriage Loophole is one of the best-kept secrets of the entire Social Security system.

So, I asked my accountant how old my future ?wife? had to be to be before she could retire and claim the marriage benefit freebie. He said 62.

I said ?Sorry, that wouldn?t work for me.? For a spouse to keep up with me at 12,000 feet in a blinding snowstorm, she would have to be at least ten or twenty years younger than me.

By the time she retired, I would be 72 or 82, the suspense period long having since expired.

Anyway, I find the prospect of getting married again is somewhat daunting. And as you can well imagine, the pool of 42-52 year old women willing to subject themselves to flying lead, tropical diseases, plane crashes and permanent jet lag is somewhat limited.

You see, I?m not an easy person to be around.

Did he have any other ideas?

He did mention that I could apply for my Medicare benefits three months before I turn 65. If I applied for benefits more than six months after I turn 65, I could be subject to hefty penalties.

Go figure.

Yes, you might conclude that only a complete maniac could live a lifestyle like this and get away with it, and my mother would agree with you.

But how else could I make a piece about obscure Social Security rules interesting?

John Thomas-Vintage CarIn Search of the Lost Benefit

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/John-Thomas-Vintage-Car-e1427056018873.jpg 315 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-03-14 01:06:492016-03-14 01:06:49The Great Social Security Marriage Benefit You?ve Never Heard Of
DougD

March 11, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 11, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 22 NEW YORK GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SUPER MARIO DELIVERS . . . AND THEN HE DOESN?T),
(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (IWM),
(MARCH 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR)

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-11 01:09:372016-03-11 01:09:37March 11, 2016
DougD

Super Mario Delivers . . . And Then He Doesn?t

Diary, Newsletter

Well that went over like a lead balloon!

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi bet the ranch that an aggressive round of quantitative easing would crash the Euro (FXE), (EUO) against the dollar and rescue the continental economy.

He certainly didn?t pull any punches. We didn?t just get one bazooka, we got three.

In a press conference that had the world waiting on pins and needles, the wily Italian announced that deposit interest rates would get cut from negative 0.3% to negative 0.4%. Nope, that?s not a typo.

Central bank bond buying will be ratcheted up from ?60 to ?80 billion a month. Furthermore, the planned life of European QE was extended to April 2017.

And what did the beleaguered continental currency do? After gapping down to the bottom of a multi month trading range, it carried out its large move UP in history, with the (FXE) soaring from $106.10 to $109.70.

Go figure.

Mario Draghi must be tearing his hair out. All of his efforts towards monetary control had the exact opposite of the desired effect.

My European summer vacation just got more expensive.

Some forex participants pointed to Draghi?s ill-advised statement that ?We don?t anticipate it will be necessary to further reduce rates.?

Thanks to my three years of Italian, I can tell you what he really said. ?This is all you?re getting baby. You ain?t getting any more stinking QE.?

A slap across the face with a wet kipper would have been more welcome. So was the crash of the Hindenburg. Thank goodness I only trade foreign exchange part time for laughs.

The stock market didn?t have to be told twice what to do. With volatility that is now becoming all too familiar, it performed a perfect $309 Dow point swan dive.

Of course, I saw all this coming a mile off (I didn?t really), going into the announcement with a quadruple short position in stocks with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM).

I though Mr. Mario would disappoint with no new QE whatsoever, thus crashing the markets.

Hey, I?ll take a (SPY) $3.69 move in my favor anyway I can get it. Certainly my many new followers appreciate it.

I stopped at the bank this afternoon to get some cash. The branch manager knew I was an international financial wizard in addition to being the most interesting man in the world, so she asked me how negative interest rates work.

I explained that if you deposit $1 million with a bank at a negative 0.4% interest rate, a year later your deposit would be worth only $996,000.

?Really?? she asked.

?Really,? I answered.

I think the message here is that our lives as traders are going to continue dull, mean, and brutish for the foreseeable future, at least until the second half of the year.

The only way to make money is to trade devoid of the thought process.

If its up, sell it. If it?s down, buy it. Over think things, and you will find yourself in a world of sushi.

FXE
SPY
Mario

Mr. Mario Strikes Again

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/FXE1-e1457652921450.jpg 454 580 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-11 01:07:552016-03-11 01:07:55Super Mario Delivers . . . And Then He Doesn?t
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 11, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Just because we removed the word ?patient? doesn?t mean that we are going to be impatient,? said my friend, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. That is pure Janet. I feel like I?m back at Berkeley.

Janet Yellen.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Janet-Yellen.-e1426716351611.jpg 300 239 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-03-11 01:05:062016-03-11 01:05:06March 11, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

March 10, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 10, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 21 BOSTON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(NINE REASONS WHY VOLATILITY IS SO HIGH),
(VIX), (SPX),
(THE BUY AND FORGET PORTFOLIO),
(SPY), (IXUS), (EEM), (VNQ), (TLT), (TIP)

VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
S&P 500 (^GSPC)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Core MSCI Total Intl Stk (IXUS)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-10 01:09:452016-03-10 01:09:45March 10, 2016
DougD

Nine Reasons Why Volatility is So High

Diary, Newsletter

After years of steadily upward grinding markets, we have suddenly seen three stock market shakeouts of more than 10% over the past six months.

The Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked over $50 once and $30 on three separate occasions during the same time period.

What gives?

Is the bull market over? Is it time to don your hard hat and hide out in a bunker? Should we start stockpiling canned food, water, and ammo once again?

Hardly.

Those of us who have been around for a handful of decades have seen all this before. After several years, markets just get tired of going up.

Traders look at their S&P 500 (SPX) charts and think, ?holy moly, the index has just tripled off its $667 bottom! SELL!?

Investors look at their charts and think ?Wow, markets have been going up for seven years now! Isn?t this where a recession usually kicks in? SELL!?

In fact, markets can go down for no other reason than they have been going up for too long, earnings be damned. The bear market becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem is that these days, high frequency traders, complex derivatives enabling massive leverage, the rise of ETF?s, the disappearance of intermediaries, and scaredy cat day traders put a turbocharger on every single move.

However, this year we seem to have more than the usual numbers of things to worry about.

I will list them in order of importance. Caution: you may not have heard of several of these.

1) The retirement of 85 million baby boomers is still the biggest drag on risk assets everywhere. Retirement brings a shift in investment preferences away from equities and towards fixed income, and a major downsizing of consumption. They are a huge drag on the economy. This will continue for six more years.

2) The Federal Reserve?s monetary policy of quantitative easing gave us all free money to buy everything, especially stocks. Since it ended in October, 2014 stocks have flat lined within a broad range. Expect this to continue until the next real recession, which could be years off.

3) The hangover of the 2008 crash is still with us. People are so nervous about a return of the bad old days that they are saving more than usual. This is why consumers aren?t spending their gas savings. It?s also why the housing recovery got such a late start. An entire generation of Millennials has deferred family formation and consumption by about five years. Many people will NEVER buy stocks again, similar to what their ancestors did after the 1929 crash.

4) America is almost alone around the world with a reasonably growing economy. The rest of the planet, including Europe, Japan, China, the Middle East, and emerging nations, are all suffering from a slowdown. This acts as a big drag on the US economy, as the demand for our exports shrink.

5) Since this is an election year, some $8 billion will be spent to convince you how terrible economic conditions are. Never mind that the claims are largely false. This IS having a negative effect on investor sentiment. When this onslaught runs out of money in the fall, expect to start hearing about the ?Clinton Rally? that will take stocks to new all time highs. You heard it here first. Oh, and by the way, Donald Trump scares the living daylights out of the entire business and investment community.

6) Have you noticed that sub $2.00 gas at the pump lately? Well, the people who sell us the oil that made that gas don?t have as much money as they used to. How much money? Oh, about $1 trillion. And what do they have to sell to cover their newfound deficits? US stocks, especially bank and technology shares, and of course Apple (AAPL).

7) OK, so you?re one of those people who absolutely HAS to have something to worry about. There is a catch all category of Syria/ISIS/Iran/Libya/Yemen/Somalia that will keep you awake at night and out of the stock market. As a person who is in near weekly contact with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I can assure you that the existential threat to the US from this source is zero. Blame it all on the failure of the Ottoman Empire to reform during the 19th century.

8) Want more reasons to toss and turn at night? You could obsess about the rise of China and a newly aggressive Russia. But do you really think one of these countries is inclined to blow up their largest source of earnings and technology? I don?t think so.

9) A giant asteroid will destroy the earth. Don?t worry, the next big one isn?t due until 2032, by which time I will be retired, and entirely in cash.

$spx
$vix
john

Last Night at 8,000 Feet

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/john-e1457557236720.jpg 300 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-10 01:07:422016-03-10 01:07:42Nine Reasons Why Volatility is So High
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