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MHFTR

An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Diary, Newsletter

It was with great sadness that I learned of the passing of travel guru Arthur Frommer at the age of 95. Arthur had a great influence on my life.

Since many of you are now planning summer vacations, I thought I would pass on what I learned from the ultimate travel guru of all time.

When I backpacked around Europe in 1968, I relied heavily on Arthur Frommer’s legendary paperback guide, Europe, on $5 a Day, which then boasted a cult-like following among impoverished but adventurous Americans. The charter airline business had just taken off, plunging airfares, and suddenly, Europe came within reach of ordinary Americans like me.

Over the following years, he directed me down cobblestoned alleyways, dubious foreign neighborhoods, and sometimes converted WWII air raid shelters to find those incredible travel deals. When he passed through town some 60 years later, I jumped at the chance to chat with the ever-cheerful worshipped travel expert.

Frommer believes there are three sea change trends going on in the travel industry today. Business is moving away from the big three travel websites, Travelocity, Orbitz, and Priceline, who have more preferential lucrative but self-enriching side deals with airlines than can be counted, towards pure aggregator sites that almost always offer cheaper fares, like Kayak.com, Sidestep.com, and Fairchase.com.

There is a move away from traditional 48-person escorted bus tours towards small group adventures, like those offered by Gap Adventures, Intrepid Tours, and Adventure Center, that take parties of 12 or less on culturally eye-opening public transportation.

There has also been a huge surge in programs offered by universities that turn travelers into students for a week to study the liberal arts at Oxford, Cambridge, and UC Berkeley. His favorite was the Great Books programs offered by St. John’s University in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Frommer says that the Internet has given a huge boost to international travel but warns against user-generated content, 70% of which is bogus, posted by the hotels and restaurants touting themselves.

The 94-year-old Frommer turned an army posting in Berlin in 1952 into a travel empire that publishes 340 books a year, or one out of every four travel books on the market. I met him on a swing through the San Francisco Bay Area (his ticket from New York was only $150), and he graciously signed my tattered, dog-eared original 1968 copy of his opus, which I still have.

Which country has changed the most in his 60 years of travel writing? France, where the citizenry has become noticeably more civil since losing WWII. Bali is the only place where you can still actually travel for $5/day, although you can see Honduras for $10/day. Always looking for a deal, Arthur’s next trip is to Chile, the only country in the world he has never visited.

With the advent of AI, Arthur has been met with an onslaught of new competition. Recently, Amazon (AMZN) has been flooded with hundreds of new travel books written entirely by algorithms. They have no human author who’s ever visited the country in question and are written entirely from existing information found on the Internet. But they’re cheap.

You can easily spot them from their wishy-washy, non-committal language and factual errors and omissions. For example, I recently found a travel book about Ukraine that neglected to mention that there was a war going on there and that its cities were being bombed by Russians daily.

Not for me.

 

Arthur’s Next Big Play is Bali

 

1968 on the French Riviera

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Europe-on-5-a-Day-cover.jpg 481 275 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2024-12-06 09:02:392024-12-06 11:26:03An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 6, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The individual investor in America sits at the bottom of the food chain,” said John C. Bogle, the late founder of the Vanguard Group of index funds.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/LION.jpg 301 320 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-12-06 09:00:142024-12-06 16:32:38December 6, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 5, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 5, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(LAUNCHING “TRADING OPTIONS FOR BEGINNERS”)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-05 09:04:412024-12-05 09:48:41December 5, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 4, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 4, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-04 09:04:102024-12-04 10:39:33December 4, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

America's Demographic Time Bomb

Diary, Newsletter

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long-term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps.

The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100-year-olds.

Notice that China and India dominate the children’s map. Kids turn into consumers in 20 years, stay healthy for a long time, and power economic growth.

The US, Japan, and Europe shrink to a fraction of their actual size on the children’s map, so economic growth is in a long-term secular downtrend there.

There is more bad news for the developed world on the centenarian’s map, which shows these countries ballooning in size to grotesque, unnatural proportions.

This means higher social security and medical costs, plunging productivity, and falling GDP growth.

The bottom line is that you want to own equities and local currencies of emerging market countries and avoid developed countries like the plague.

This is why we saw tenfold returns from SOME emerging markets (EEM) over the past ten and why there is an irresistible force pushing their currencies upward (CYB) over the long term.

Use any major meltdowns this year to increase your exposure to emerging markets, as I will.

 

 

 

 

Would You Rather Own Them?

 

Or Them?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Children.jpg 297 369 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-12-04 09:02:342024-12-04 10:39:18America's Demographic Time Bomb
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 3, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 3, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE DECEMBER TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON!)
(IT’S GROUNDHOG DAY)
(LAUNCHING "TRADING OPTIONS FOR BEGINNERS”
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (VIX), (VXX), (GLD), (SLV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:08:232024-12-03 11:37:22December 3, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Mad Hedge December Traders & Investors Summit is On!

Diary, Newsletter

The election is over and a brave new world lies before us.

But the Fed may soon stop raising interest rates, inflation is rising, and tech stocks are flat-lining! Can a stock market crash be far behind? 

What should you do about it?

Attend the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit from December 3 - 5. Learn from 24 of the best professionals in the market with decades of experience and the track records to prove it. They are offering a smorgasbord of successful trading strategies.

Every strategy and asset class will be covered, including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals, commodities, energy, and real estate.

Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.

Best of all, by signing up you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes. 

Usually, access to an exclusive conference like this costs thousands of dollars. You can attend for free!

Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Mr-John-Thomas.png 554 374 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:06:122024-12-03 11:36:52The Mad Hedge December Traders & Investors Summit is On!
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

It's Groundhog Day

Diary, Newsletter
David Tepper

It is always the sign of a great hedge fund manager when he makes money while he is wrong.

I have seen this throughout my life, trading with clients and friends like George Soros, Julian Robertson, Paul Tudor Jones, and David Tepper.

And wrong I certainly was in 2024.

I thought Trump would lose the election.

Then, I thought that markets would rocket no matter who won. Only the sector leadership would change.

How about one out of two?

The big question is: “Is a stock market crash now in front of us?” The answer is absolutely yes. It’s only a question of how soon.

At this point, we only know what Trump said. And as we all know, what Trump says and does, or can do are totally different things. It all adds a new and constant source of unknowns for the market.

Of course, it helps to have a half-century of trading experience, too. I like to tell my beginning subscribers, “Don’t worry, after the first 50 years, this gets easy.”

Except easy it is not, going into the next several couple of years.

In a few months, it will be Ground Hog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil will call the weather for the next six weeks from his hilltop in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania.

For the financial markets, it could mean six more MONTHS of winter.

Nobody wants to sell because they believe in a longer-term bull case going into yearend.

In the meantime, they are buying deregulation plays (JPM), (GS), (BLK), and Tesla (TSLA) as a hedge against the next Tweet.

We could see a repeat of the first half of 2017 when markets rocketed and then died.

This is what a Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX) is screaming right in your face, kissing the $13 handle.

The never-ending tweets are eroding the bull case by the day.

So, we’re at war with Canada now? Wait! I thought it was Mexico? No, it’s France. If it’s Tuesday, this must be Belgium.

And our new ally? Russia!

Even the Federal Reserve is hinting in yesterday’s statement that it is going into “RISK OFF” mode, possibly postponing a December interest rate cut indefinitely.

Unfortunately, that completely sucks the life out of our short Treasury bond trade (TLT), (TBT) for the time being, a big earner for us earlier this year.

Flat to rising interest rates also demolish small caps and other big borrowers (homebuilders, real estate, REITs, cruise lines).

The market is priced for perfection, and if perfection doesn’t show, we have a BIG problem.

All of this leads up to the good news that followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader enjoyed almost a perfect month in November.

Trade Alert Service in November

 

(DHI) 11/$135-$145 call spread

(GLD) 12/$435-$340 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$3.90-$400 put spread

(JPM) 11/$195-$205 call spread

(CCJ) 12/$41-44 call spread

(JPM) 12/$210-$220 call spread

(NVDA) 12/$117-$120 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$230-$240 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$250-$260 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$270-$275 call spread

(MS) 12/$110-$115 call spread

(C) 12/$60-$65 calls spread

(BAC) 12/$41-$44 call spreads

(VST) 12/$115-$120 call spread

(BLK) 12/$950-$960 call spread

 

The net of all of this is that 2024 is looking like a gangbuster year for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, up 18.96% in November and 72.00% YTD, compared to only 26.62% for the S&P 500.

It seems that the harder I work, the luckier I get.

 

 

 

 

 

Hanging With David Tepper

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/John-Thomas-David-Tepper.jpg 303 387 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:04:182024-12-03 11:36:37It's Groundhog Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 29, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 29, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(The Mad DeCEMBER traders & Investors Summit is ON!)
(CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA),
(FXI), (BIDU), (BABA), (JD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-29 09:06:002024-11-29 11:38:23November 29, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

China's View of China

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

There was so much enthusiasm for China only a month ago.

A stimulus package was announced, a massive short-covering rally ensured, and finally, after a three-year hiatus, China was back in play. Several hedge funds announced major commitments to the Middle Kingdom.

Here we are only three weeks after the US presidential election, and China now looks so much rubble. Asst prices returned to their starting points. The hedge funds have so much mud on their faces. It’s back to a long wait.

Which gives us all plenty of time to think about what China is really all about.

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out-of-consensus views on China’s position in the world today.

He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $12,969, compared to $81,695 in the US.

We are simply moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China is not going to dominate the world, or even Asia, where there is a long history of regional rivalries and wars.

China can’t even control China, where recessions lead to revolutions, and 30% of the country, Tibet and the Uighurs want to secede.

China’s military is almost entirely devoted to controlling its own people, which makes US concerns about their recent military build-up laughable.

All of Asia’s progress, to date, has been built on selling to the US market. Take us out, and they’re nowhere.

With enormous resource, environmental, and demographic challenges constraining growth, Asia is not replacing the US anytime soon.

There is no miracle form of Asian capitalism; impoverished, younger populations are simply forced to save more because there is no social safety net.

Try filing a Chinese individual tax return, where a maximum rate of 40% kicks in at an income of $35,000 a year, with no deductions, and there is no social security or Medicare in return.

Ever heard of a Chinese unemployment office or jobs program?

Nor are benevolent dictatorships the answer, with the despots in Burma, Cambodia, North Korea, and Laos thoroughly trashing their countries.

The press often touts the 600,000 engineers that China graduates, joined by 350,000 in India. In fact, 90% of these are only educated to a trade school standard. Asia has just one world-class school, the University of Tokyo.

As much as we Americans despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world.

After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for four decades, and you feel this vibrating from everything around you.

I’ll consider what Minxin Pei said next time I contemplate going back into the (FXI) and (EEM).

 

 

 

 

China: Not All Its Cracked Up to Be

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/China-Parade.jpg 266 401 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-11-29 09:02:432024-11-29 11:36:58China's View of China
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