Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheons, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2014. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for just over $200.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a major hotel in each city, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation. The calendar of my European events is below.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store, click on ?Global Strategy Luncheon? tab, and then the city of your interest.
London, England - June 23 Istanbul, Turkey - June 26 Rome, Italy - July 7 Sardinia, Italy - July 11 Barcelona, Spain - July 18 Zermatt, Switzerland - July 24
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/John-Thomas..jpg266323Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-10 01:03:182014-04-10 01:03:182014 European Strategies Luncheons
Featured Trade: (JUNE 26 ISTANBUL, TURKEY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BOJ BOMBSHELL HITS YEN SELLERS IN THE SHORTS), (FXY), (YCS), (BREAKFAST WITH MOHAMED EL-ERIAN)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
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It was little after midnight west coast time when the Bank of Japan dropped its bombshell. It said it would refrain from stimulating the economy further to offset the deflationary effects of the VAT tax increase from 5% to 8%, which took effect on April 1.
Within seconds, the Japanese yen rocketed and never looked back. The Nikkei stock average crashed. Traders were stunned by the BOJ?s ill-timed move, as many GDP forecasts for the current quarter hover around the negative -1% level.
I held back on covering my yen short, waiting for a pullback. It was not to be, and I had to stop out with a small loss. Given the heightened level of anxiety in the markets since last week, I don?t have to be told twice to unload a ?RISK ON? position.
I am in the fortunate position in that I can offset this loss with the major gains I made on my short S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 (IWM) positions. This is why the word ?Hedge? is in the name ?Mad Hedge Fund Trader.?
However, the central bank said it would stick with its current plan to increase the money supply by 60-70 trillion yen per year for the next two years. One of Japan?s confidence indicators fell to the lowest level since 2011. The government is said to be mulling over a further VAT tax hike to 10%. So don?t count on the central bank to stick to the hard line for very long.
Many think that this is just a speed bump on Japan?s road to economic recovery, and that more stimulus is on its way in July, once the magnitude of the current slowdown is indisputable. This could just be another case of central banks slow to adapt to reality, as they are often wont to do.
?Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.? I?m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade.
To remind you why you hate the currency of the land of the rising sun, I?ll refresh your memory with this short list:
* With the world?s structurally weakest major economy, Japan is certain to be the last country to raise interest rates. Interest rate differentials are the greatest driver of foreign exchange rates.
* This is inciting big hedge funds to borrow yen and sell it to finance longs in every other corner of the financial markets.
* Japan has the world?s worst demographic outlook that assures its problems will only get worse. They?re not making enough Japanese any more.
* The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is prompting investors to scan the horizon for the next troubled country. With gross debt well over a nosebleed 240% of GDP, or 120% when you net out inter agency crossholdings, Japan is at the top of the list.
* The Japanese long bond market, with a yield of only 0.61%, is a disaster waiting to happen.
* You have two willing co-conspirators in this trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country?s beleaguered exporters.
When the big turn inevitably comes, we?re going to ?110, then ?120, then ?150. That works out to a price of $200 for the (YCS), which last traded at $65. But it might take a few years to get there.
If you think this is extreme, let me remind you that when I first went to Japan in the early seventies, the yen was trading at ?305, and had just been revalued from the Peace Treaty Dodge line rate of ?360. To me the ?83 I see on my screen today is unbelievable. That would then give you a neat 17-year double top.
It?s All Over For the Yen
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Japanese-Lady-Sad-e1400531413320.jpg324319Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-09 01:04:092014-04-09 01:04:09BOJ Bombshell Hits Yen Sellers in the Shorts
Featured Trade: (FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (APRIL 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (HARRY S. DENT ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (SPY), (IWM), (UUP), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), (XLE), (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
United States Oil (USO)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-08 11:22:202014-04-08 11:22:20April 8, 2014
Your stock portfolio will get decimated by a stock market crash that could take the Dow average down 60% to 6,000 or lower. There will be no place to hide, as gold, silver, oil, real estate will see declines of similar magnitude.
Given the fresh dose of uncertainty besieging the markets these days, I thought I'd touch base with my pal, co-conspiring Eagle Scout, and fellow traveler, Harry S. Dent, Jr. It was inviting a bomb thrower to tea.
I listen to Harry, not because he is an iconoclast, one of the few original thinkers out there, and sometimes, a complete wild man, although these are all admirable qualities to be found in a global strategist. I listen to him because in the past, he has been as right as rain.
So when an opportunity arose to bag him for Hedge Fund Radio, I jumped. It would give my listeners an opportunity to sort through the tealeaves, work through alternative scenarios for the future of disparate asset classes, and test competing investment theories. What I got was nothing less than a Vulcan mind meld.
Harry argues passionately that we are witnessing the end of the third great bubble in debt, hot on the heels of earlier forays into madness in technology stocks and real estate. Add public and private debt from all sources, and it totals $130 trillion, the greatest accumulation of IOU?s in history. The Federal Reserve is now manipulating all markets, and the exercise is certain to end in tears. The only way out from this will be to suffer an economic and financial crisis worse than we have seen to date.
A key part of Harry?s work revolves around generational spending patterns. Americans see spending peak when they reach the ages of 46-50, and bleed off from there. He blends this perspective in with historical data on demographics and some traditional Eliot Wave Analysis to produce one of the most refined long-term views in the marketplace.
Harry runs an independent research boutique, which has accurately predicted many of the major moves in financial markets during the past 25 years.
His unique blend of demographic research, identification of global consumer spending patterns, and long-term cycle analysis, really makes Harry one of a kind. Foreign governments, major hedge funds, financial advisors, and individuals are all just wild about Harry. They have found his advice indispensible when navigating the sticky shoals of international finance.
Growth of the national debt (TLT) continues to be a major headache. Since the Great Depression, public spending has grown steadily, from supporting small town 'Mayberry' to the equivalent of a New York City. While much of the early deficit explosion resulted from WWII and Vietnam, all of the recent growth has come from entitlements, like Medicare and Social Security. Government estimates of $46 trillion in unfunded liabilities are wildly inaccurate, with $70 trillion closer to reality.
Harry's advice to investors is to use any strength in coming months to unload stocks (SPY) (IWM). He would sell all remaining holdings in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). He also wants to dump oil (USO) and other energy plays (XLE). And he believes we are about to enter a prolonged period of dollar strength. His favorite vehicle for the greenback is the ETF (UUP), which offers investors a long position against a basket of foreign currencies.
Harry is a native of South Carolina, who like Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke, went off to Harvard where he got his MBA. His career then took him to the top-notch private equity firm, Bain & Co., where he reported to recent presidential candidate, Mitt Romney.
After years of consulting with Fortune 100 companies, he found gaping holes in their understanding of the global economy. That spurred him to take off and create his own research boutique to address these grievous shortfalls in understanding.
In addition to Harry?s many talents, he is also a prolific writer. His most recent tome is The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 (click here to purchase from Amazon).
There is also The Great Crash Ahead (click here to purchase from Amazon). You can guess the topic. He has also published The Great Boom Ahead (1993) (click here for Amazon),?The Roaring 2000?s (1999) (click here for Amazon).
Purchasing a download of the entire interview for $4.95 is very simple. Just go to the HEDGE FUND RADIO menu tab and click on the drop down menu for RADIO SHOW (click here to go to the page ). Click on the green BUY NOW button and complete the order form. A blue link will appear telling you to ?click here to proceed?. Then click on the small blue box with the question mark inside to download. Hit the PLAY arrow to listen. You can pause, fast forward, or rewind at any time.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Harry-S.-Dent-Jr..jpg267202Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-08 11:18:212014-04-08 11:18:21Harry S. Dent, Jr. on Hedge Fund Radio
I spoke to the best traders I know in the market Thursday night, and to a man they said the market looked terrible. Although prices were high, the momentum was totally gone and volume was shrinking.
Worse, these conditions prevail as we head into May, the onset of the traditional ?RISK OFF? season (click here for ?The Hard Numbers Behind Selling in May?).
Best case, it continues to grind sideways in a narrow range. Worst case, our long awaited 10% correction is finally here.
The big ?tell? would be how stocks responded to the Friday nonfarm payroll. If it turned into a ?buy the rumor, sell the news,? or made a marginal new high and then sells off hard, then it would herald the onset of a new correction.
That was exactly what we got.
You knew immediately that things were heading south, even though the Dow opened up $44. The big momentum like Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon (AMZN) rolled over like the Bismarck right out of the gate. Bonds (TLT) also took off like a bat out of hell, not exactly what you want to see when you own stocks.
I spent Thursday night writing up Trade Alerts to sell short the (IWM), the (SPY), and the (QQQ). You only had about 30 minutes when the market waffled indecisively to get these off. As it turned out, I could only get the first two done before the market fell away like a house of cards.
I have already received ecstatic emails from nimble traders who got into the (IWM) August, 2014 $113 puts as low as $3.65 and then saw them soar to $5.25, an instant profit of 44%. This also boosts my year to date performance back to double digits, a welcome development
I have a number of cross hedges going on now in my model portfolio which I should explain, just to show you there is a method to my Madness. The May (SPY) $193-$196 put spread is a short volatility trade that balances out the long volatility and time decay in the (IWM) August $113 puts.
I am long the higher beta (IWM) puts and short the lower beta (SPY) puts. The 35% ?RISK OFF? position I have in the (SPY), (IWM), and the (VXX) will also offset lost profits in my one 10% ?RISK ON? position in the Japanese yen (FXY) put spread. This balancing of multiple risks is what a real live hedge fund trading book looks like.
Fasten your seat belts. This could be the big one.
Fasten Your Seatbelt, This Could Be the Big One
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/monks.jpg186183Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-07 01:04:062014-04-07 01:04:06A Very Bad Chart Day
Featured Trade: (ORLANDO FLORIDA SATURDAY, MAY 17 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON) (APRIL 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (WHY JIM CHANOS IS WRONG ON CHINA), (FXI), (CYB) (DRINKS WITH ROBERT REICH)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy (CYB)
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Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the fa?ade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter.
This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world?s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, like Canada, Australia, and parts of the US. Modern China has only seen a bull market, and he doubts their ability to manage a true crisis.
There is a widespread misperception that the government will step in and provide any bailouts that will be needed. The domestic Chinese banking system has in fact already been bailed out two times. The harsh reality is that while Chinese companies are selling billions of dollars? worth of new stock issues in the US through IPO?s, a privileged elite is getting their money out of the country as rapidly as they can.
Jim says that he already has short positions in the Middle Kingdom that are profitable. There is no way that even a wrinkle in a market of this size is without global implications, and on that point Jim is right.
However, I think that Jim, who confesses to having never visited China, is missing the broader long-term picture here. China has literally been building a Rome a day, the ancient kind, and the modern size every two weeks. In a year, it builds the equivalent of the entire housing stock of Spain, and in 15 years the equivalent for all of Europe.
While a lot of apartment buildings have been constructed, the country is rapidly creating the middle class to fill them. Even allowing for a pull back from its past blistering 11% per annum GDP growth rate to only 7.7%, urban disposable income per person is expected to grow by 2.5 times to $7,500 by 2020.
Over the same time frame, some 160 million are expected to move from the hinterlands to urban areas. Rising standard of livings mean that residential floor space per person will jump from 270 square feet to 369 square feet, still tiny by Western standards. That is a lot of housing demand.
China has already taken steps to head off a housing crisis, unlike the US. Many banks are now demanding cash deposits of 40%, well over the official requirement of 30%. The government is in effect forcing the banks to deleverage before hard times hit. Too bad they didn?t think of that here.
I think China still has several good years ahead of it, and I am going to pile into the stock ETF (FXI) and the Yuan ETF (CYB) as soon as the current bout of malaise selling exhausts itself. The Country?s real challenge arises when its demographic pyramid starts to invert in about five years, the result of a then 35 year old ?one child? policy, when too many single children have to start supporting two retiring parents.
China: Not Enough Demand?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/China.jpg316474Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-04 01:04:232014-04-04 01:04:23Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China
Featured Trade: (LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON), (MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q2 VIEWS), (SPX), (NDX), (XLK), (TLT), (FXB), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), ?(GLD), (SLV), (SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT), (VIX), (VXX) (THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
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