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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The High Oil Mystery

Newsletter

American oil imports from the Middle East are in free fall, down 35% in two years. They are quickly being replaced by tar sands imports from Canada, which are ballooning to 2 million barrels a day and at all time highs. American energy production is surging, thanks to new finds of natural gas showing up in everyone?s back yard, taking the country rapidly on its way to energy independence.

So why is the price of oil so damn high?

Everywhere you go to seek a shortage, you find a glut. Storage facilities at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub are practically overflowing. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is close to its 727 million barrel maximum capacity, or 36 days of national consumption.

Traditionally, the beginning of the summer driving season heralded higher crude prices. But gasoline consumption has been sliding for five years, thanks to the widespread adoption of hybrids and electric cars, and the improved mileage of conventional automobiles.

Even the Iranian election results auger poorly for the price of oil. The win by moderate Hassan Rohani, who boasts a doctorate from a Scottish university, promises to ease tensions with the United States over the nuclear issue.

More mysterious is the fact that the price of oil has been levitating in the face of the utter collapse of virtually every other commodity. Dr. Copper is handing out ?F?s? these days, the red metal down 30% this year. Iron ore is close to 50% down from its peak, to the deep distress of many Australians and their beleaguered dollar. Even the barbarous relic is off, gold falling 31% from its high. How come the Chinese economic slowdown is dragging down the price of everything except the one it needs the most?

The US decision to send weapons to Syria is, no doubt, positive for oil prices, but it is only worth a bump for a day. America has also announced joint military maneuvers with Jordan. How much do you want to bet that they accidentally leave their weapons behind?

Iran responded by sending 4,000 troops into the battered country to join Hezbollah from Lebanon, who are already there. Syria is turning into the Spanish Civil War of our age. But as it produces no oil, it shouldn?t materially impact prices.

Looking at speculative long positions held by hedge funds, I find them at multiyear highs. My guess is that investment demand, not consumption, accounts for up to $30 of the current $98 price of black gold.

Maybe we should just write all this off to another instance of prices moving the opposite direction of fundamentals, which has become so common this year. Or perhaps President Obama is right? Is it the work of evil speculators?

WTIC 6-14-13

WTIC(2) 6-14-13

USO 6-17-13

NATGAS 6-14-13

World in Oil How To Get a Price Rise From a Global Glut?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/World-in-Oil.jpg 450 449 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:33:292013-06-18 09:33:29The High Oil Mystery
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Decoding What?s in Your Pocket

Diary, Newsletter

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill.

?ANNUIT COEPTIS? means ?God has favored our undertaking.? ?NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM? translates into ?A new order has begun.? The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are ?1776.? The better known ?E PLURIBUS UNUM? is ?One nation from many people.?

The basic design for the cotton and linen currency with red and blue silk fibers, which has been in circulation since 1957, carries enough symbolism to drive conspiracy theorists to distraction. An all seeing eye? The darkened Western face of the pyramid? And of course, the number ?13? abounds.

Thank Freemason Benjamin Franklin for these cryptic symbols, and watch Nicholas Cage?s historical adventure movie ?National Treasure.? The balanced scales in the seal are certainly wishful thinking and a bit quaint if they refer to the Federal budget. Study the buck closely, because there are soon going to be a lot more of them around.

DOLLAR

Ben Franklin What Did You Really Mean, Ben?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Ben-Franklin.jpg 274 211 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:26:362013-06-18 09:26:36Decoding What?s in Your Pocket
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Scam of the Week

Diary, Newsletter

Having trouble raising capital for your new hedge fund? Just list Warren Buffet as your ?Honorary Chairman.? That?s what California prison guard, Ottoniel Medrano, did. To help his marketing efforts, he also claimed that he had $4.8 billion in assets under management as well as massive real estate holdings in Asia.

With this scam, Medrano?s International Realty Holdings managed to raise $700,000 from individuals, which he promptly shipped to offshore bank accounts, before the Feds shut him down.

When you think you?ve heard everything, something like this pops up. Unbelievable. You would think that people have heard of ?due diligence? by now. It all brings back unpleasant memories of Bernie Madoff, now a permanent resident at the federal prison in Butner, North Carolina.

Bernie Madoff

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bernie-Madoff.jpg 282 354 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:26:192013-06-18 09:26:19Scam of the Week
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 17, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 17, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 12 AMSTERDAM STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(AN ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS TAKE ON THE MARKETS),
(DBA), (MOO), (PHO), (FIW).
(BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT THE MONEY PRINTERS),
(ON EXECUTING TRADE ALERTS)

PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:07:382013-06-17 01:07:38June 17, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $229.

The lunch will be held at a downtown Amsterdam hotel near Nieumarkt that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Amsterdam

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Amsterdam.jpg 319 479 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:06:162013-06-17 01:06:16July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Environmental Activist?s Take on the Markets

Diary, Newsletter

I spent an evening with Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and a winner of the coveted MacArthur Prize, for some long-term thinking about the environment and its investment implications.

Global warming is causing the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers in the Himalayas, and the Sierra snowpack. Water tables are falling and fossil aquifers are depleting. In the coming decades this will cause severe shortages of fresh water that could lead to crop failures in India and China, where one billion people depend on mountain runoff to irrigate crops, and even California, which delivers 80% of America?s vegetables.

The fresh water inputs in one person?s food and materials consumption works out to some 2,000 liters a day. That is no typo. As a result, all food prices will rise. To head off the greatest threat to the global food supply in human history, we need to cut carbon emissions by 80% before 2020, not 2050, as is being discussed in Copenhagen.

This can only be accomplished by redefining food and the environment as national security issue and launching a wartime mobilization. These difficult goals are achievable. Enough sunlight hits the earth in a day to power the global economy for a year. Texas alone has more than 20 gigawatts of wind power operating, under construction, or planned, enough to take 5% of our 250 coal fired power plants offline. Electricity demand could be cut by 90% purely through greater efficiencies, like switching from incandescent bulbs to LED?s.

Europe could get its entire 300 gigawatt power supply from solar plants in North Africa at current market prices. Cars powered by wind generated electricity would bring fuel costs down to an equivalent 75 cents a gallon, as electric motors are three times more efficient than internal combustion engines.

While Brown?s predictions are a little extreme for many, they mesh perfectly with my long term bullish cases for food and water plays. Take another look at the food sector ETF?s, (DBA) and (MOO), and the water space ETF?s (PHO) and (FIW).

DBA 6-14-13

MOO 6-14-13

PHO 6-14-13

Water Fall

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Water-Fall.jpg 249 365 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:05:282013-06-17 01:05:28An Environmental Activist?s Take on the Markets
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Business is Booming at the Money Printers

Diary, Newsletter

All of the high-grade paper used by the US Treasury to print money is bought by one firm, Crane & Co., which has been in the same family for seven generations.

Last year, the Feds printed 38 million banknotes worth $639 million. Although they have seen the recession cause the velocity of money to decline, recent reflationary efforts have spurred a big increase in demand for paper for $100 dollar bills. The US first issued paper money in 1861 to finance the Civil War, and Crane has been supplying them since 1879.

The average life of a dollar bill is 21 months. Who said no one was doing well in this economic slowdown? M1, or notes and coins in circulation, is already exploding. Is this a warning of an imminent jump in inflation? In the meantime, check out the new 3D $100 bill. It includes the latest anti-counterfeiting techniques, like a new blue security strip, tiny liberty bells that morph into the number 100, and ?United States of America? micro printed on Franklin?s jacket collar. The new bills should start entering circulation in September.

It?s ironic that the balanced scales, a symbolic reference to the founding fathers? commitment to maintaining a balanced budget, are still on the new Benjamin. Old Ben must be turning over in his grave.

$100 bill - old Out With the Old

$100 bill - new In With the New

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:04:062013-06-17 01:04:06Business is Booming at the Money Printers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 14, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 14, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(UPDATED 2013 SUMMER STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE),
(THE YEN CARRY TRADE BLOW UP),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (SNE), (HMC), (TM),
(THE SERVICE JOB IN YOUR FUTURE), (MCD)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Sony Corporation (SNE)
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-14 07:55:032013-06-14 07:55:03June 14, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Updated 2013 Summer Strategy Luncheon Schedule

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/ and click on ?STRATEGY LUNCHEONS?.

New York City - July 2
London, England -
July 8
Amsterdam, Netherlands -
July 12
Berlin, Germany -
July 16
Frankfurt, Germany -
July 19
Portofino, Italy -
July 25
Mykonos, Greece
- August 1
Zermatt, Switzerland - August 9

 

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-11.jpg 264 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-14 07:54:162013-06-14 07:54:16Updated 2013 Summer Strategy Luncheon Schedule
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Yen Carry Trade Blow Up

Newsletter

When I staggered downstairs at 11:00 PM to check the close for the Tokyo stock market, my eyes just about popped out of my head. Yikes! Down 6.3%! The yen was up another 2% to ?94 against the US dollar as well!! It looked like the world was in for another round of ?RISK OFF? with a turbocharger. Fasten your seatbelts, and pack an extra pair of shorts.

So I called an old friend in Japan who always seems to know what is going on whenever the wheels fall off there. Ed Merner is the CEO of the Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (LSE-AJG), who has long been rated the number one stock picker in the Land of the Rising Sun. Ed?s fund, which trades on the London Stock Exchange, was, at one point, up a gob smacking 53% this year without a stitch of leverage.

When the ink was barely dry on the US Japan peace treaty in 1950, Ed?s father uprooted his family from the rural High Sierra hamlet of Truckee, California, and moved them to Tokyo. That gave him a front row seat to the economic miracle that followed in the fifties and sixties.

Ed started managing money just a few years before me, in 1970. He toiled away as a portfolio manager at Schroeder?s & Co. in Tokyo for 25 years and then launched his own firm in 1995. Ed, who is a fascinating individual and a genuine nice guy, is the man I always turn to for my long-term view on Japan. Suffice it to say, Ed knows which end of a piece of sushi to hold upward, and is said to be able to snatch a fly midair with a pair of chopsticks. His Japanese is flawless, and he is now regarded as a local celebrity.

Ed says that the ?Rebirth of Japan? story is anything but over, and in fact, is just getting started. He thinks that the Nikkei index could soar from the current ?12,445 to above the 1989 all time high of ?39,000 in years to come. What we are seeing now is a long overdue rest for the world?s best performing major stock market. Bank of Japan mouthing?s of empty platitudes, rather than concrete action is what triggered the current rout.

Much of the money that went into Japan this year was of the hot, algorithm driven variety. You saw this in the dominance of the index names in trading, like Sony (SNE), Toyota (TM), and Honda Motors (HMC). Individual stock picking almost ceased to exist as an investment strategy. When the same hedge funds all tried to unwind their Japanese stock longs and yen shorts at the same time, you got the predictable flash fire in the movie theater. Margin calls became the order of the day.

As the index money leaves in this correction, it will be replaced by more traditional mutual fund and individual investors, who have a more stable orientation. Stock selection will become more fundamentally driven. That?s when Japan transitions from the flavor of the day to a serious core investment.

Now is about the time you should expect that to happen. Japan?s upper House of Councilors election will take place on July 21, and Prime Minister Abe?s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will win by a landslide. After that, you can expand Abe?s plans for an overdue major restructuring of the economy to mature from idle speculation to specific proposals. That is what the market wants to hear. Until then, he is loath to ruffle political feathers. He is going to have to break a lot of eggs to make this omelet.

On the table in his ?Third Arrow? plan are deregulation of virtually all financial markets, modernization of the health care system, immigration reform to open the way for more foreign workers, and rationalization of a bloated government bureaucracy. International trade will get streamlined and capital investment incentivized. More infrastructure spending will be aimed at maintenance and repair, so there will be no more ?bridges to nowhere.?

Oh, and he wants to enable the national pension fund system to step up its purchases of Japanese stocks. Abe wants to compress all of the deregulation that the US has enacted in the past 30 years into the next three.

The truly encouraging thing here is that Abe?s early actions are already bearing fruit. ?Arrows? 1 and 2 put the country on track to double its money supply in two years and paved the way for a staggering $150 billion in new public works spending. The crash in the yen this prompted is causing corporate earnings to go through the roof. Those results will be reported in the fall.

Then, the best company performance in two decades and a national reorganization plan on the scale of Roosevelt?s New Deal will be the impetus for the next leg up in the Great Japanese Bull Market of the 2010?s. That is why I banged out Trade Alerts on Wednesday to buy Japanese stocks through the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedge Equity ETF (DXJ) and sell short the yen through the Currency Shares Japan Yen Trust ETF (FXY) and the Proshares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS).

Atlantis Japan Growth Fund Atlantis Japan Growth Fund

DXJ 6-13-13

FXY 6-13-13

YCS 6-13-13

DXJ a 6-13-13

UUP 6-13-13

Proportional Seats

Asian Maids Use the Dip to Buy Japan

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Asian-Maids1.jpg 180 479 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-14 07:51:522013-06-14 07:51:52The Yen Carry Trade Blow Up
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