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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Gold: Next Stop $1,250!

Newsletter

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don?t do. I actually wrote up a Trade Alert to buy gold on Thursday, figuring that it would bounce the first time it hit my downside target of $1,500.

But then I scanned the entire hard asset landscape, and saw that everything was selling off huge; silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT), palladium (PALL), oil (USO), copper (CU), and iron ore. I took a long nap. When I woke up, I decided that there was something much bigger going on here, and the urge to buy the barbarous relic suddenly vaporized. I sent the Trade Alert to my recycle bin.

The selloff that ensued on Friday was of Biblical proportions, with the yellow metal taking an unbelievable $86, 5.5% swan dive. They say this is the commodity that takes the stairs up and the elevator down, and that was no more true than today.

I have been pounding the table trying to get readers out of gold since early December. It is clear what is going on here. The world is dumping hard assets of every description and pouring the money into paper ones. Commodities you can drop on your foot are getting dumped, and generous premiums are being paid for anything that can be created with a printing press. It?s as simple as that.

This is why you are having both bonds and stocks going up at the same time, a rare event in capital markets. In effect, everything is now a bond, both the wide array of fixed income securities that are getting chased, along with dividend yielding stocks. This is why a wide swath of technology stocks, like Apple (AAPL), are not participating in the game.

I called around to some of the leading technical analysts to see how much pain gold was in for. The tidings were grim. The 200-week moving average at $1,433 looks like a chip shot. If that doesn?t hold, then $1,300 is in the cards. My favorite target is the old October, 2009 breakout level where the Reserve Bank of India came in out of the blue and bought 200 tonnes of the sparkly stuff, punching it through to a new all time high. The previous resistance should now become support. This is the number my jeweler favors.

To make matters particularly fiendish for traders, we may see a breakdown well into the $1,400?s that sucks in tons of capitulation sellers, then a big bounce before a downtrend resumes. It is a scenario that will be enough to test even the most devoted of gold bugs.

At risk is nothing less than the end of a bull market that is entering its 12th year. The shares of gold miners suggest that the demise of gold is already a foregone conclusion. The index for this group (GDM) has breached major support once again and is looking for a new four year low. Since this index usually correlates very highly with the barbarous relic, the writing is on the wall.

There are a host of reasons why the yellow metal has suddenly become so unloved. The largest holder of the gold ETF (GLD), John Paulson, is getting big redemptions in his hedge fund, forcing him to sell. This is why the selling is so apparent in the paper gold markets, like the ETF?s, but not in the physical bars and coins.

India has suddenly seen its currency, the rupee, drop against the greenback. That reduces the buying power of the world?s largest gold importer. With years of pernicious deflation ahead of us, who needs a traditional inflation hedge like the yellow metal anyway?

The hyper quantitative easing announced by the BOJ last week has created an entire new class of gold liquidators. Gold has actually risen dramatically in yen (FXY) terms over the past five months, so retail jewelers across Japan have had to expand business hours to accommodate long lines of eager sellers. The overflow is hitting the international markets big time.

Here is the final nail in the coffin for gold. Gold has had a dozen reasons to rally over the past six months. Those include the European monetary crisis, the Italian elections, the Spanish elections, the Cyprus bank account seizures, sequestration, the fiscal cliff, Ben Bernanke?s QE3, the Japanese ultra QE, rising capital gains taxes, and even the reelection of president Obama. It has utterly failed to do so.

Any trader long in the tooth, such as myself, will tell you that if a market can?t rally on repeated fabulous news, then you sell the daylights out of it. That is what we got with gold, in spades, on Friday.

GOLD 4-11-13

GLD 4-12-13

SLV 4-12-13

GDX 4-12-13

Market Down

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Market-Down.jpg 415 564 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-15 09:24:352013-04-15 09:24:35Gold: Next Stop $1,250!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $199.

I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a downtown Chicago venue on Monroe Street that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Chicago

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Chicago1.jpg 240 351 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-15 09:17:062013-04-15 09:17:06April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 12, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 12, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOT YOUR FATHER?S RAILROADS),
(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP),
(THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD)

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-12 09:20:502013-04-12 09:20:50April 12, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Worst Trade of All Time

Diary, Newsletter

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community?s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998. The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 tons of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times.

Today with gold at $1,559/ounce, the stash would be worth $300 billion. On top of this, the Swiss National Bank is poorer by $70 billion, after offloading 1,550 tons of the barbaric relic. The large scale, indiscriminate selling depressed gold prices in the early part of this decade, and made the final bottom of a 20 year move down.

It is a classic example of what happens when bureaucrats take over the money management business, ditching the best performing investment on the eve of a long-term bull market. The funds raised were largely placed in poorly performing national Eurobonds.

Where did all that gold go? To hedge funds, gold bugs, and inflationistas of many stripes, despite the fact that long dreaded price hyperinflation never showed.? The good news for gold bugs is that these reserves are largely drawn down now, and future selling will trail off in the years ahead. The shrinking supply can only be positive for prices.

GOLD 4-10-13

Steve Martin

Never Let a European Civil ?Servant Trade Your Portfolio

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Steve-Martin.jpg 208 297 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-12 09:14:022013-04-12 09:14:02The Worst Trade of All Time
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 11, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 11, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(JAPANESE CASH TSUNAMI HITS US),
(SPY), (DXJ), (BAC), (AAPL), (TBT), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV)
(TURKEY IS ON THE MENU), (TUR), (TKC)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR)
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-11 09:33:302013-04-11 09:33:30April 11, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $189.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

San Francisco

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg 238 359 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-11 09:32:042013-04-11 09:32:04April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Japanese Cash Tsunami Hits US

Diary, Newsletter

When Japanese central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced the most aggressive monetary stimulus program in history last week, he no doubt expected Tokyo share prices to head for the moon. In that, he has succeeded admirably, the yen hedged Japanese equity ETF (DXJ) soaring by 13.4% in the five trading days since he lobbed his bombshell.

What the bespectacled bureaucrat did not anticipate was that his action would send American shares through the roof as well. Both the Dow average and the S&P 500 surged to new all time highs today, much of the move powered by new Japanese cash. Just when American traders were wringing their hands over the potential loss of quantitative easing, they instead were handed a second campaign of ultra monetary easing.

Until last week, the Fed was pumping $85 billion a month into the financial system. From this week, the Fed plus the BOJ monthly total doubles to $170 billion. I don?t have to draw pictures for you to explain what this means for stock prices.

Indeed, the BOJ?s fingerprints could be found daily on securities of almost every imaginable description. What they have been buying is size exchange traded funds of equities (ETF?s) and bonds of every maturity. Imagine the Fed coming in one morning, calling all the major brokers, and placing orders for a billion dollars each of the (SPX) and the (IWM). That is what?s happening in Japan now.

The problem is that domestic investors in Japan have been unloading positions they have been lugging for years to the central bank, and then reinvesting the cash into better quality, higher yielding US stocks. Notice how well the big cap dividend yielders have been trading, favorite targets of foreign investors. Notice, also, that technology appears to be staging a turnaround on the back of the international money, with recent pariah, Apple (AAPL) actually showing signs of life.

It?s easy to see why this is happening. If you were a Japanese investor, would you want to buy a low growth, low yielding stock in a depreciating currency? Or buy a share in a faster growing company with a much higher dividend an appreciating currency. I rest my case. God bless America!

Needless to say, beyond the sunset made a complete hash of my few remaining short positions in the S&P 500, which only had seven days left to run into expiration. Thank you, Mr. Market for my biggest loss of the year.

Fortunately, that hickey was more than generously offset by profits on shorts I harvested last week, in addition to remaining longs in Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), and hefty shorts in the yen. As of this writing, I am up a breathtaking 37% so far in 2013.

Where does this party end? Now that we have two QE?s, instead of just one, I think it is safe to say that risk assets everywhere are going much higher. How high is anyone?s guess. It also means that the ?RISK OFF? assets of gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and Treasury bonds (TLT) are headed lower. That?s why I added a long in the leverage short Treasury bond ETF (TBT) this week for the first time in years. The punch bowl just got topped up again, and I don?t have to be asked twice to refill my glass.

DXJ 4-10-13

INDU 4-10-13

SPX 4-10-13

XLK 4-10-13

AAPL 4-10-13

Punch Bowl

The Punch Bowl Has Just Been Refilled

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Punch-Bowl.jpg 288 353 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-11 09:30:212013-04-11 09:30:21Japanese Cash Tsunami Hits US
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Turkey is on the Menu

Diary, Newsletter

I am building lists of emerging market ETF?s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the age of 15, giving it one of the planet?s most attractive demographic profiles.

The real driver for Turkey is a rapidly rising middle class, generating consumer spending that is growing by leaps and founds. Its low waged labor force is also a major exporter to the European Community next door.

I first trod the magnificent hand woven carpets of Istanbul?s Aga Sophia in the late sixties while on my way to visit the rubble of Troy and what remained of the trenches at Gallipoli, a bloody WWI battlefield. Remember the cult film, Midnight Express? If it weren?t for the nonstop traffic jam of vintage fifties Chevy?s on the one main road along the Bosporus, I might as well have stepped into the Arabian Nights. They were still using the sewer system built by the Romans.

Four decades later, and I find Turkey among a handful of emerging nations on the cusp of joining the economic big league. Exports are on a tear, and the cost of credit default swaps for its debt is plunging. Prime Minister Erdogan, whose AKP party took control in 2002, implemented a series of painful economic reform measures and banking controls, which have proven hugely successful.

Foreign multinationals like General Electric, Ford, and Vodafone, have poured into the country, attracted by a decent low waged work force and a rapidly rising middle class. The Turkish Lira has long been a hedge fund favorite, attracted by high interest rates.

Still, Turkey is not without its problems. It does battle with Kurdish separatists in the east, and has suffered its share of horrific terrorist attacks. Inflation at 8% is a worry. The play here long has been to buy ahead of membership in the European Community, which it has been denied for four decades. Suddenly, that outsider status has morphed from a problem to an advantage.

The way to get involved here is with an ETF heavily weighted in banks and telecommunications companies, classic emerging market growth industries like (TUR). You also always want to own the local cell phone company in countries like this, which in Turkey is Turkcell (TKC). Turkey is not a riskless trade, and has already had a great run, but is well worth keeping on your radar.

Turkey Population

TUR 4-10-13

TKC 4-10-13

Istanbul

I See A Trade Here

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Istanbul.jpg 270 363 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-11 09:26:072013-04-11 09:26:07Turkey is on the Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 10, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 10, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(AN EVENING WITH GOVERNMENT MOTORS), (GM),

General Motors Company (GM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-10 01:05:152013-04-10 01:05:15April 10, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I will also explain how I have been able to deliver a blowout 40% return since the November, 2012 market bottom. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The PowerPoint presentation will be emailed to you three days before the event.

The lunch will be held at a major Las Vegas hotel on the Strip, the details will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Please make your own hotel reservations, as business there is booming.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

las-vegas-welcome-sign

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/las-vegas-welcome-sign.jpg 487 325 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-10 01:03:122013-04-10 01:03:12May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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