November 22, 2010 - Breaking Up With Rare Earths

Featured Trades: (RARE EARTHS), (MCP), (AVARF), (LYSCF)

3) Breaking Up With Rare Earths. I'm sorry to tell you this Rare Earths, but I have decided that it is time for me to move on. When I first met you at the Hard Assets Conference last May, you were the greatest cheap date around. You were thrilled when I took you out to dinner at the Olive Garden, and even complimented me on my blue jeans, even though they were just some rags that I had bought at Old Navy.

To be brutally honest, your tastes have lately become extravagant. You now throw a hissy fit if I take you to a restaurant without a Michelin star. You then turn your nose up at a $300 bottle of Dom Perignon. Is it really necessary to have caviar for an appetizer and desert?

Granted, your performance has been nothing less than spectacular. In six months Molycorp (MCP) has rocked by 230%, Avalon Rare Metals (AVARF) went ballistic by 260%, and Lynas Corp (LYSCF) exploded by 450%. But all good things must come to an end. As attractive as the long term fundamental argument for rare earths may be, the risk reward ratio here is not great. Even the CEO of Molycorp says his company's own product is in a bubble. And he should know.

Sell off 30%, and maybe we can talk about reconciliation. Don't take it personal. It is just a question of price. And remember, we'll always have Paris.

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We'll Always Have Paris