October 25, 2024
(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S OCTOBER 23, 2024, WEBINAR)
October 25, 2024
Hello everyone
TITLE
“VOTE FOR ME”
PERFORMANCE
4.89% for October thus far.
+51.62% average annualized return.
+726% since inception.
PORTFOLIO
(NEM) 10/$47-$50 call spread 10%
(TSLA) 10/$200-$210 call spread 10% (trade closed, profits taken)
(DHI) 10/$165-$175 call spread 10%
No Risk Off Positions.
THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS
There is a global derisking going on ahead of the U.S. elections.
All interest rate plays are selling off. Bonds are discounting a Trump win, stocks a Harris win. Watch for a melt-up in both post-elections.
We are unlikely to see a more than 5% drop in indexes for the rest of 2024 because of massive cash holdings.
US dollar touches a high for the year on rising rates.
Technology stocks have recovered, with (NVDA) at highs.
Energy gets dumped on global oversupply.
Buy stocks and bonds on dips, but now it’s ALL sectors.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SLOWING
CPI comes in warm at 0.3% for September and 2.4% YOY.
Europe cuts interest rates by 25 basis points.
New Zealand cuts interest rates by 50 basis points.
US Retail Sales gained 0.4%, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August.
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Plunges. It could be an election effect.
PPI comes in flat and up 1.8% YOY.
Social Security gets a 2.5% raise in 2025.
STOCKS – FROM STRENTH TO STRENGTH
Hedge Funds pouring into Technology stocks, such as semiconductors and hardware, at the fastest in five months amid the start of the third-quarter earnings season.
S&P500 Value Gain hits $50 trillion since the 1982 bottom.
Morgan Stanley announces blowout earnings, fuelling a 32% profit jump for the third quarter.
ASML plunges 16% on poor earnings.
Tesla gets approval to double Berlin Factory.
Global EV sales up 30% in September.
Delta warns of Presidential Election Travel dip, as fears of violence over the next two weeks keep travellers’ home.
BONDS – ELECTION PLAY
It’s a choice between Harris, who will increase the deficit by $2.5 trillion, or Trump, who will increase by $15 trillion.
Either way, the bond market loses.
Bond yields soar above 4.24% yield, on fears of massive deficit spending by a future Donald Trump presidency. Estimates of his deficits over four years go as high as $15 trillion.
US Budget Deficit tops $1.8 trillion in Fiscal 2024, which ends on October 30.
It’s the highest outside of the Covid era.
Interest on the federal debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, and spending grew for the Social Security retirement program, health care, and the military.
The deficit for the year ended Sept. 30 was up 8%, or $138 billion, from the $1,695 trillion recorded in fiscal 2023.
Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and (REITS) on this dip.
FOREIGN CURRENCIES – DOLLAR PEAK
Dollar hits two-month high on rising US interest rates.
Dollar gets a sudden new lease on life from interest rate spike.
Higher interest rates make the US dollar much more attractive to traders and investors.
This is a short-term rally only and may be the last chance to sell short the US dollar.
The long-term downtrend in the dollar is still intact.
There is no way the dollar can stand up to cuts down to 3.5% by next summer.
Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC) and (FXY)
ENERGY & COMMODITIES – OIL CRASH
Chronic global oversupply finally overwhelms Middle East threats.
Air conditioning demand will rise by 280% by 2025, thanks to higher temperatures and rising incomes, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Nuclear Boom is on with Amazon Web Services announcing it has signed an agreement to explore the development of a small module nuclear reactor (SMR) as it expands its services into generative AI.
Rio Tino buys Arcadium for $6.7 billion in a bid to become one of the world’s largest lithium producers.
John’s Cameco (CCJ) trade alert went ballistic, up 25% in two weeks.
The nuclear trade is still on, with all plays hitting new highs.
PRECIOUS METALS – NEW HIGHS
Silver breaks out to the upside after a year’s long-range trade.
The white metal is a predictor of a healthy recovery and a solar rebound.
It’s a long overdue catch-up with (GLD). Buy (AGQ) on dips.
Money pours into Gold ETF’s, taking Gold up to new highs at $2,761 an ounce, as hedge funds pour in.
Seasonals for the barbarous relic are now the most positive of the year.
Gold holding up in the face of big interest rate rises shows it only wants to go up.
Escalation of Middle East war is very pro-gold.
Buy (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM) on dips.
REAL ESTATE – GRIND TO A HALT
Election has brought real estate markets to a complete halt.
Inventory is rising, and prices are falling, especially in Florida.
Single-family home builds are ticking up and are at a five-month high in September.
Permits for future construction rose only marginally, an excess supply of new homes on the market and prospective buyers holding out for lower mortgage rates.
We need lower interest rates to get more traction.
Weekly Home Mortgages Tank by 17% on the sudden rise in interest rates.
TRADE SHEET
Stocks – buy the next big dip
Bonds – buy dips
Commodities – buy dips
Currencies – sell dollar rallies, buy currencies
Precious Metals – buy dips
Energy – buy dips
Volatility – sell over $30
Real Estate – buy dips
NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR
12:00 EST Wednesday, November 6
From Lake Tahoe, Nevada.
Cheers
Jacquie